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封面
市場調查報告書
商品編碼
2102902

HBM市場展望：人工智慧需求推動合約價格飆升，HBM供應商定價權增強

HBM Market Outlook:HBM Suppliers Seize Pricing Power as AI Demand Fuels Explosive Contract Price Surge
出版日期: | 出版商: TrendForce | 英文 6 Pages | 商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內

價格
簡介目錄

自2025年下半年以來，CSP加速推動AI基礎建設，導致對HBM的需求激增，給傳統DRAM產能帶來壓力，並造成整個DRAM市場供不應求。受年度定價機制的限制，2026年第一季HBM的單股產值和利潤率均低於DDR5 RDIMM。隨著2026年第二季HBM42027年供應談判的開始，TrendForce預計供應商將力爭大幅提高合約價格，這反映出嚴重的供需失衡和下一代製造成本的上升。

主要亮點

  • 產能壓力導致供不應求：由於雲端服務供應商（CSP）對人工智慧的需求急劇成長，HBM 的出貨量激增。其大尺寸晶片顯著加劇了傳統 DRAM 的產能壓力，導致整個市場供應緊張。
  • 談判策略的轉變暫時壓低了2026年HBM的價格：年度定價機制和新供應商的加入導致HBM合約價格低於市場水準，且與傳統DRAM相比，每片晶圓的產值和利潤率甚至更低。這促使供應商在新合約談判中採取了更強硬的立場。
  • 世代更迭驅動需求：到2026年，需求驅動力將從AI ASIC產能的提升轉向由下一代GPU平台和AI ASIC的共同推動。晶片尺寸的增大預計將進一步提升產能。
  • 供應商已掌握明確的主導：面對日益複雜的製造流程和不斷上漲的成本，供應商的議價能力顯著增強。透過推動大幅提高合約價格，並根據協商價格調整HBM和傳統DRAM的分配，供應商將維持整個人工智慧生態系統的記憶體需求。

目錄

  • 1.2027年 HBM 合約的談判將於2026年第二季開始，預計價格將上漲數倍，反映出市場供不應求。
    • 每片晶圓的HBM產量（2025年第一季至2026年第四季）
    • 每 GB HBM 平均售價（2025年第一季至2026年第四季）
  • 2.2026年，對 HBM 的需求將主要由 AI ASIC 驅動；2027年，需求將主要由 Rubin Ultra 和 AI ASIC 驅動。
    • HBM 位出貨量和 HBM 在 DRAM 晶圓總產量/供應位數中所佔的佔有率
簡介目錄
Product Code: TRi-0114

Since 2H25, accelerated AI infrastructure buildouts by CSPs have surged HBM demand and crowded out conventional DRAM capacity, pushing the broader DRAM market into shortage. Constrained by annual pricing mechanisms, HBM per-wafer output value and margins fell below DDR5 RDIMM in 1Q26. As 2027 HBM4 supply negotiations launch in 2Q26, TrendForce expects suppliers to push through substantial contract price hikes, reflecting acute supply-demand imbalance and rising next-generation manufacturing costs.

Key Highlights

  • Capacity Crowd-Out Drives Shortage: Strong AI demand from CSPs is surging HBM volumes; its larger die size heavily displaces conventional DRAM capacity, tightening the broader market across the board.
  • Negotiation Shift Temporarily Depressed 2026 HBM Pricing: Annual pricing mechanisms and a new supplier's entry left HBM contract prices lagging market conditions, with per-wafer output value and margins even falling below conventional DRAM—prompting suppliers to adopt an assertive stance in new contract talks.
  • Generational Shift Drives Demand Momentum: Demand momentum will pivot from 2026's AI ASIC capacity upgrades to being jointly driven by next-gen GPU platforms and AI ASICs, with enlarged die sizes further intensifying the capacity crowd-out.
  • Suppliers Secure Clear Pricing Leadership: Facing rising manufacturing complexity and costs, sellers' bargaining power has materially strengthened. Suppliers will push through substantial contract hikes and balance HBM/conventional DRAM allocation per negotiated pricing, sustaining memory demand across the AI ecosystem.

Table of Contents

  • 1. Negotiations for 2027 HBM Contracts Have Begun in 2Q26, and Prices Are Expected to Increase Severalfold to Reflect Undersupplied Market
    • HBM Output Value per Wafer, 1Q25-4Q26
    • ASP per Gb for HBM, 1Q25-4Q26
  • 2. Demand Momentum for HBM Mostly Generated by AI ASICs in 2026, Followed by Rubin Ultra and AI ASICs in 2027
    • HBM Bit Shipments and HBM’s Share of Total DRAM Wafer Output / Supply Bits