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市場調查報告書
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2119217

廢棄物衍生燃料（RDF）：市場佔有率分析、行業趨勢和統計數據以及成長預測（2026-2031 年）

Refuse-Derived Fuel (RDF) - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026 - 2031)
出版日期: | 出版商: Mordor Intelligence | 英文 100 Pages | 商品交期: 2-3個工作天內

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簡介目錄

根據 Mordor Intelligence 預測，廢棄物衍生燃料市場規模將從 2025 年的 73.4 億美元成長到 2026 年的 77.2 億美元，然後在 2031 年達到 101.2 億美元，2026 年至 2031 年的複合年成長率為 5.56%。

垃圾衍生燃料 (RDF) 市場-IMG1

本報告按原料（生活廢棄物、工商業垃圾、建築拆除廢棄物、農業廢棄物及其他廢棄物廢棄物）、燃料類型（固態RDF、液體RDF、氣態RDF）、最終用戶（水泥製造、發電、熱電聯產、工業鍋爐、垃圾焚化發電發電廠、石灰產業、鋼鐵和金屬加工、造紙和紙漿等）以及地區（北美、歐洲、亞太地區（北美、歐洲、亞洲）以及地區（北美、歐洲、歐洲細分市場）以及地區（北美、歐洲和歐洲細分市場。市場預測以美元（USD）計價。

全球廢棄物衍生燃料（RDF）市場趨勢與洞察

減少掩埋廢棄物和促進循環經濟的強制性要求。

減少廢棄物掩埋的要求持續支撐著廢棄物衍生燃料市場的發展，它將不可回收的材料轉化為資源。歐盟的目標是到2035年將掩埋率限制在10%以內，目前已有9個成員國實現了這個目標。 2021年，羅馬尼亞和克羅埃西亞的掩埋率分別為73%和71%，這意味著隨著處理能力的提升，大量剩餘材料可以進入處理系統。歐盟委員會已將「循環經濟法」納入其2026年循環經濟政策議程。未來，如果限制可燃性城市和商業廢棄物的掩埋，在掩埋仍然普遍存在的地區，可用的原料數量將會增加。然而，要使新的廢棄物能夠用作燃料，需要進行分類、預處理，並在地方層級建立穩定的合約。廢棄物衍生燃料市場正是依賴這些地方層面的處理能力，將那些避免被掩埋的材料轉化為適當的燃料。

工業領域水泥和石化燃料的替代

水泥生產為廢棄物衍生燃料提供了最穩定的需求基礎，因為窯爐的熱源難以直接用電氣化取代。在歐洲水泥廠，53%的窯爐燃料已被廢棄物衍生燃料取代，而全球平均僅6%。 JSW水泥公司在2024-2025會計年度共處理了15.7萬噸RDF（垃圾衍生燃料），在其兩家工廠實現了16.5%的熱替代率。該公司報告稱，二氧化碳排放量減少了12萬噸，並將燃料替代與脫碳聯繫起來。一項2025年的研究發現，以RDF取代20%的熱能可以將水泥生產的全球暖化潛能降低3.3%至4.2%，如果考慮到避免垃圾掩埋掩埋甲烷排放的影響，效果將更加顯著。 Indocement 與 Pasel 縣於 2026 年簽署的一項協議表明，亞洲水泥製造商正在從完全依賴現貨採購轉向正式的本地供應合約。

原料品質和水分含量的變化

由於水泥窯需要可預測的燃燒特性，廢棄物品質的波動阻礙了垃圾衍生燃料（RDF）在市場上的廣泛應用。未經處理的混合廢棄物含水量可能超過35%，這會導致淨熱值從目標值18兆焦/公斤降至11兆焦/公斤以下。歐洲工業排放法規對氯和水分含量有限制，可能導致低品質的RDF被拒收。亞洲開發中國家的廢棄物有機物含量高，導致含水量超過40%，增加乾燥的難度。雖然印度的協同處理指南設定了品質標準，但對於小規模工廠來說，要達到這些標準可能很困難。實施先進的乾燥技術和即時監測會使每噸垃圾的處理成本增加8至15美元。

細分市場分析

2025年，都市廢棄物佔廢棄物衍生燃料市場價值的58.4%。這得歸功於市政資源回收要求以及已建成的機械和生物處理設施。其供應規模反映了對收集和處理系統的長期投資。然而，有機物含量和季節性水分含量會限制對熱值和氯含量的控制。這些限制限制了能夠滿足高品質固態回收燃料規格的都市廢棄物比例。預計到2031年，工商業工業廢棄物將以6.3%的複合年成長率成長，這是所有原料中最高的成長率。

這種廢棄物含水量低，成分穩定，並且由於在生產者延伸責任制（EPR）框架下進行源頭分類，因此可以更精確地使其符合廢棄物衍生燃料市場中加工燃料的要求。 SoliD-Q計畫於2026年啟動，旨在開發數位化回收數據，以精確管理再生產品的品質。建築和拆除廢棄物在成熟市場中仍佔較小市場佔有率，儘管石膏和加工木材可能會限制窯爐的使用。在南亞和南美洲，人們正在測試將農業廢棄物混合物共製粒的方法。顆粒的生產成本為每噸35至50美元，但與煤炭相比，燃料成本可節省高達每噸70美元，如果符合品質標準，則可以簽訂長期收購合約。

區域分析

到2025年，歐洲將佔據46.7%的市場。這將得益於掩埋規避法規、能源回收設施以及廢棄物衍生燃料市場的碳定價機制。德國、荷蘭、義大利、英國和法國將繼續保持主要的生產和消費中心地位。波蘭、羅馬尼亞和克羅埃西亞正透過投資機械和生物處理技術來擴大其處理能力。瑞典從英國和挪威的進口表明，已建成的垃圾焚化發電產能如何促進跨境燃料貿易。歐盟的《掩埋指令》和《廢棄物框架指令》將繼續影響區域需求，而《循環經濟法》將於2026年為政策制定提供新的方向。

預計到2031年，亞太地區將以6.1%的複合年成長率成長，成為廢棄物衍生燃料市場成長最快的地區。這一前景主要得益於城市垃圾的增加、掩埋空間的短缺以及水泥生產商為減少煤炭使用所做的努力。印度每天產生超過15萬噸城市垃圾，但其中只有不到25%轉化為RDF燃料。中國的工業成長正在推動對穩定替代燃料的需求，而日本的廢棄物分類基礎設施則支持固態再生燃料的利用擴張。在印尼，Indocement公司與Pasel Regency於2026年簽署的一項協議，便是政府支持的聯合窯爐加工的典範。

在北美，由於許多美國州和加拿大省份的掩埋處理成本仍然相對較低，因此進展緩慢。 2026年3月，美國環保署（EPA）最終確定了涵蓋57個設施中150多個大型城市垃圾焚化爐的更新標準。南美洲仍處於起步階段，巴西、智利和阿根廷的RDF利用率仍低於剩餘垃圾的5%。物流限制和水泥共處理能力的不足阻礙了該地區的發展。中東和非洲的活動主要集中在沙烏地阿拉伯、阿拉伯聯合大公國、埃及和摩洛哥，但在撒哈拉以南非洲，高水分廢棄物可能會成為大規模RDF計畫的延誤因素。因此，整個廢棄物衍生燃料市場的項目經濟效益因地區而異。

其他好處

  • Excel格式的市場預測（ME）表
  • 3個月的分析師支持

目錄

第1章：引言

  • 研究假設和市場定義
  • 調查範圍

第2章：調查方法

第3章執行摘要

第4章 市場狀況

  • 市場概覽
  • 市場促進因素
    • 減少掩埋廢棄物和促進循環經濟的強制性要求。
    • 工業領域水泥和石化燃料的替代
    • 殘餘廢棄物量增加以及垃圾焚化發電的需求上升
    • 碳定價和隱含碳的計算
    • 數位分類和燃料品質可追溯性
    • 透過分散式熱電聯產保障區域能源安全
  • 市場限制因素
    • 原料品質和水分含量的變化
    • 物流成本高且經濟運輸距離有限。
    • 與授權、社區接受度和減排維修相關的風險。
    • 高熱值殘餘廢棄物的競爭
  • 供應鏈分析
  • 波特五力分析
  • 技術展望
  • 監理情勢
  • 投資分析

第5章 市場規模與成長預測

  • 按原料
    • 一般廢棄物（MSW）
    • 商業和工業（C&I）廢棄物
    • 建築和拆除（C&D）廢棄物
    • 農業廢棄物
    • 其他廢棄物流
  • 按燃料類型
    • 固態RDF
    • 液態RDF
    • 氣態RDF
  • 最終用戶
    • 水泥製造
    • 發電
    • 熱電聯產（CHP）
    • 工業鍋爐
    • 垃圾焚化發電
    • 石灰產業
    • 鋼鐵和金屬加工
    • 紙漿和紙漿
    • 其他工業用途
  • 按地區
    • 北美洲
      • 美國
      • 加拿大
      • 墨西哥
    • 歐洲
      • 德國
      • 法國
      • 義大利
      • 西班牙
      • 英國
      • 波蘭
      • 俄羅斯
      • 其他歐洲國家
    • 亞太地區
      • 中國
      • 印度
      • 日本
      • 韓國
      • 澳洲
      • 印尼
      • 越南
      • 泰國
      • 其他亞太國家
    • 南美洲
      • 巴西
      • 阿根廷
      • 智利
      • 其他南美國家
    • 中東和非洲
      • 沙烏地阿拉伯
      • 阿拉伯聯合大公國
      • 埃及
      • 南非
      • 摩洛哥
      • 其他中東和非洲國家

第6章 競爭情勢

  • 市場集中度
  • 策略趨勢
  • 市佔率分析
  • 公司簡介
    • A2A SpA
    • Andusia Recovered Fuels Limited
    • Averda International Limited
    • Biffa Limited
    • Blue Phoenix Group BV
    • Enva Group Limited
    • FCC Servicios Medio Ambiente Holding, SAU
    • Geminor AS
    • Indaver NV
    • PAPREC Group
    • PreZero International GmbH
    • Ragn-Sells AB
    • REMONDIS SE & Co. KG
    • Renewi plc
    • SARIA SE & Co. KG
    • SUEZ SA
    • Veolia Environnement SA
    • Waste Management, Inc.

第7章 市場機會與未來展望

簡介目錄
Product Code: 101392

According to Mordor Intelligence, the refuse-Derived fuel market size is expected to grow from USD 7.34 billion in 2025 to USD 7.72 billion in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 10.12 billion by 2031 at 5.56% CAGR over 2026-2031.

Refuse-Derived Fuel (RDF) - Market - IMG1

This report is Segmented by Feedstock Source (MSW, C&I, C&D, Agricultural, Other Waste), Fuel Type (Solid, Liquid, Gaseous RDF), End User (Cement, Power Generation, CHP, Industrial Boilers, Waste-To-Energy, Lime, Steel, Paper & Pulp, Other), and Geography (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, South America, and Middle East and Africa). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

Global Refuse-Derived Fuel (RDF) Market Trends and Insights

Landfill Diversion and Circular-Economy Mandates

Landfill diversion requirements continue to support the refuse-derived fuel market by redirecting non-recyclable material toward recovery. The EU target limits landfill disposal to 10% by 2035, and 9 Member States have reached that level. Romania and Croatia reported landfill rates of 73% and 71%, respectively, in 2021, leaving substantial material that could enter processing systems as capacity develops. The European Commission identified a Circular Economy Act as part of its circular economy policy agenda in 2026. A future restriction on landfilling combustible municipal and commercial waste would expand available feedstock where disposal remains common and require local sorting, pre-treatment, and stable contracts before new volumes can become usable fuel. The refuse-derived fuel market depends on this local capacity to turn diverted material into an acceptable fuel stream.

Cement and Industrial Fossil-Fuel Substitution

Cement manufacturing provides the most stable demand base for the refuse-derived fuel market because kiln heat is difficult to replace through direct electrification. European cement plants substituted 53% of kiln fuel with waste-derived alternatives, compared with a global average of 6%. JSW Cement co-processed 157,000 tonnes of RDF in FY2024-25 and achieved a 16.5% thermal substitution rate across 2 facilities. The company reported avoided emissions of 120,000 tonnes of CO2, which connects fuel substitution with decarbonization reporting. A 2025 review found that 20% RDF thermal substitution could reduce the global warming potential of cement production by 3.3% to 4.2%, with a higher result when avoided landfill methane was included. Indocement's 2026 agreement with Paser Regency shows that Asian cement producers are shifting toward formal local supply arrangements instead of relying only on spot procurement.

Feedstock Quality and Moisture Variability

Feedstock inconsistency limits wider adoption in the refuse-derived fuel market because cement kilns require predictable combustion characteristics. Unprocessed mixed waste can contain more than 35% moisture, which can reduce net calorific value from a target of 18 MJ/kg to below 11 MJ/kg. European industrial emissions rules impose chlorine and moisture limits that can lead to rejection of poor-quality RDF loads. High organic content in developing Asian waste streams can raise moisture above 40% and increase the drying requirement. India's co-processing guidelines set quality thresholds that small facilities may struggle to meet. Advanced drying and real-time monitoring add USD 8 to USD 15 per tonne to processing costs.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

  1. Rising Residual Waste Volumes and Waste-to-Energy Demand
  2. Carbon Pricing and Embedded-Carbon Accounting
  3. High Logistics Cost and Limited Economical Haul Distance

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Municipal solid waste accounted for 58.4% of the refuse-derived fuel market value in 2025, supported by municipal diversion requirements and established mechanical-biological treatment assets. Its supply scale reflects years of investment in collection and processing systems. However, organic contamination and seasonal moisture can restrict calorific output and chlorine control. These constraints limit the share of municipal material that can meet premium solid recovered fuel specifications. Commercial and industrial waste is forecast to grow at a 6.3% CAGR through 2031, the highest rate among feedstock sources.

Its lower moisture and more consistent composition, together with source separation under extended producer responsibility frameworks, can support a closer match with engineered fuel requirements in the refuse-derived fuel market. The SoliD-Q project began in 2026 to develop digital recycling data for precise recyclate quality. Construction and demolition waste remains a smaller opportunity in infrastructure-intensive markets, though gypsum and treated timber can restrict kiln use. Agricultural waste is being tested in South Asia and South America through co-pelletized blends. Pellet production costs range from USD 35 to USD 50 per tonne, while the cited fuel savings versus coal can reach USD 70 per tonne and quality standards can support longer-term offtake agreements.

Complete Report Scope:

  • By Feedstock Source
    • Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)
    • Commercial & Industrial (C&I) Waste
    • Construction & Demolition (C&D) Waste
    • Agricultural Waste
    • Other Waste Streams
  • By Fuel Type
    • Solid RDF
    • Liquid RDF
    • Gaseous RDF
  • By End User
    • Cement Manufacturing
    • Power Generation
    • Combined Heat & Power (CHP)
    • Industrial Boilers
    • Waste-to-Energy Plants
    • Lime Industry
    • Steel & Metal Processing
    • Paper & Pulp
    • Other Industrial Applications
  • By Geography
    • North America
      • United States
      • Canada
      • Mexico
    • Europe
      • Germany
      • France
      • Italy
      • Spain
      • United Kingdom
      • Poland
      • Russia
      • Rest of Europe
    • Asia-Pacific
      • China
      • India
      • Japan
      • South Korea
      • Australia
      • Indonesia
      • Vietnam
      • Thailand
      • Rest of Asia-Pacific
    • South America
      • Brazil
      • Argentina
      • Chile
      • Rest of South America
    • Middle East and Africa
      • Saudi Arabia
      • United Arab Emirates
      • Egypt
      • South Africa
      • Morocco
      • Rest of Middle East and Africa

Geography Analysis

Europe held 46.7% in 2025, supported by landfill diversion rules, energy recovery assets, and carbon pricing in the refuse-derived fuel market. Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, the United Kingdom, and France remained central production and consumption centers. Poland, Romania, and Croatia are adding capacity through mechanical-biological treatment investment. Sweden's imports from the United Kingdom and Norway show how installed energy-from-waste capacity can sustain cross-border fuel trade. The EU Landfill Directive and Waste Framework Directive continue to shape regional demand, while the Circular Economy Act adds policy direction in 2026.

Asia-Pacific is expected to grow at a 6.1% CAGR through 2031, making it the fastest-growing regional component of the refuse-derived fuel market. Urban waste growth, limited landfill space, and cement producers' efforts to reduce coal use support this outlook. India's daily municipal waste volume exceeds 150,000 tonnes, with less than 25% converted to RDF fuel. China's industrial growth increases demand for consistent alternative fuels, while Japan's waste-separation infrastructure supports higher use of solid recovered fuel. Indonesia's 2026 Indocement and Paser Regency agreement provides an example of government-supported kiln co-processing.

North America has a moderate position because landfill disposal remains relatively affordable across many U.S. states and Canadian provinces. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency finalized updated large municipal waste combustor standards in March 2026, covering more than 150 units at 57 facilities. South America remains at an early stage, with RDF use below 5% of residual waste volumes in Brazil, Chile, and Argentina. Logistics and limited cement co-processing capacity constrain development there. Middle East and African activity is most visible in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Morocco, while high-moisture waste can delay larger RDF projects in Sub-Saharan Africa. These conditions keep project economics uneven across the refuse-derived fuel market.

  1. A2A S.p.A.
  2. Andusia Recovered Fuels Limited
  3. Averda International Limited
  4. Biffa Limited
  5. Blue Phoenix Group B.V.
  6. Enva Group Limited
  7. FCC Servicios Medio Ambiente Holding, S.A.U.
  8. Geminor AS
  9. Indaver NV
  10. PAPREC Group
  11. PreZero International GmbH
  12. Ragn-Sells AB
  13. REMONDIS SE & Co. KG
  14. Renewi plc
  15. SARIA SE & Co. KG
  16. SUEZ S.A.
  17. Veolia Environnement S.A.
  18. Waste Management, Inc.

Additional Benefits:

  • The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
  • 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

  • 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
  • 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4 MARKET LANDSCAPE

  • 4.1 Market Overview
  • 4.2 Market Drivers
    • 4.2.1 Landfill Diversion and Circular-Economy Mandates
    • 4.2.2 Cement and Industrial Fossil-Fuel Substitution
    • 4.2.3 Rising Residual Waste Volumes and Waste-to-Energy Demand
    • 4.2.4 Carbon Pricing and Embedded-Carbon Accounting
    • 4.2.5 Digital Sorting and Fuel-Quality Traceability
    • 4.2.6 Local Energy Security Through Distributed Heat and Power
  • 4.3 Market Restraints
    • 4.3.1 Feedstock Quality and Moisture Variability
    • 4.3.2 High Logistics Cost and Limited Economical Haul Distance
    • 4.3.3 Permitting, Community Acceptance and Emissions Retrofit Risk
    • 4.3.4 Competition for High-Calorific Residual Waste
  • 4.4 Supply-Chain Analysis
  • 4.5 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
    • 4.5.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
    • 4.5.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
    • 4.5.3 Threat of New Entrants
    • 4.5.4 Threat of Substitutes
    • 4.5.5 Competitive Rivalry
  • 4.6 Technology Outlook
  • 4.7 Regulatory Landscape
  • 4.8 Investment Analysis

5 MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH FORECASTS

  • 5.1 By Feedstock Source
    • 5.1.1 Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)
    • 5.1.2 Commercial & Industrial (C&I) Waste
    • 5.1.3 Construction & Demolition (C&D) Waste
    • 5.1.4 Agricultural Waste
    • 5.1.5 Other Waste Streams
  • 5.2 By Fuel Type
    • 5.2.1 Solid RDF
    • 5.2.2 Liquid RDF
    • 5.2.3 Gaseous RDF
  • 5.3 By End User
    • 5.3.1 Cement Manufacturing
    • 5.3.2 Power Generation
    • 5.3.3 Combined Heat & Power (CHP)
    • 5.3.4 Industrial Boilers
    • 5.3.5 Waste-to-Energy Plants
    • 5.3.6 Lime Industry
    • 5.3.7 Steel & Metal Processing
    • 5.3.8 Paper & Pulp
    • 5.3.9 Other Industrial Applications
  • 5.4 By Geography
    • 5.4.1 North America
      • 5.4.1.1 United States
      • 5.4.1.2 Canada
      • 5.4.1.3 Mexico
    • 5.4.2 Europe
      • 5.4.2.1 Germany
      • 5.4.2.2 France
      • 5.4.2.3 Italy
      • 5.4.2.4 Spain
      • 5.4.2.5 United Kingdom
      • 5.4.2.6 Poland
      • 5.4.2.7 Russia
      • 5.4.2.8 Rest of Europe
    • 5.4.3 Asia-Pacific
      • 5.4.3.1 China
      • 5.4.3.2 India
      • 5.4.3.3 Japan
      • 5.4.3.4 South Korea
      • 5.4.3.5 Australia
      • 5.4.3.6 Indonesia
      • 5.4.3.7 Vietnam
      • 5.4.3.8 Thailand
      • 5.4.3.9 Rest of Asia-Pacific
    • 5.4.4 South America
      • 5.4.4.1 Brazil
      • 5.4.4.2 Argentina
      • 5.4.4.3 Chile
      • 5.4.4.4 Rest of South America
    • 5.4.5 Middle East and Africa
      • 5.4.5.1 Saudi Arabia
      • 5.4.5.2 United Arab Emirates
      • 5.4.5.3 Egypt
      • 5.4.5.4 South Africa
      • 5.4.5.5 Morocco
      • 5.4.5.6 Rest of Middle East and Africa

6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • 6.1 Market Concentration
  • 6.2 Strategic Moves
  • 6.3 Market Share Analysis
  • 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global Level Overview, Market Level Overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share, Products and Services, Recent Developments)
    • 6.4.1 A2A S.p.A.
    • 6.4.2 Andusia Recovered Fuels Limited
    • 6.4.3 Averda International Limited
    • 6.4.4 Biffa Limited
    • 6.4.5 Blue Phoenix Group B.V.
    • 6.4.6 Enva Group Limited
    • 6.4.7 FCC Servicios Medio Ambiente Holding, S.A.U.
    • 6.4.8 Geminor AS
    • 6.4.9 Indaver NV
    • 6.4.10 PAPREC Group
    • 6.4.11 PreZero International GmbH
    • 6.4.12 Ragn-Sells AB
    • 6.4.13 REMONDIS SE & Co. KG
    • 6.4.14 Renewi plc
    • 6.4.15 SARIA SE & Co. KG
    • 6.4.16 SUEZ S.A.
    • 6.4.17 Veolia Environnement S.A.
    • 6.4.18 Waste Management, Inc.

7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE OUTLOOK

  • 7.1 White-Space and Unmet-Need Assessment