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市場調查報告書
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2125394

美國空調設備：市場佔有率分析、產業趨勢與統計、成長預測（2026-2031）

United States Air Conditioning Equipment - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026 - 2031)
出版日期: | 出版商: Mordor Intelligence | 英文 100 Pages | 商品交期: 2-3個工作天內

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簡介目錄

根據 Mordor Intelligence 預測，美國空調設備市場規模預計在 2026 年達到 376.2 億美元，到 2031 年達到 477.1 億美元，預測期內複合年成長率為 4.86%。

美國空調設備市場-IMG1

本報告按產品類型（分離式和多聯式空調系統、變冷劑流量（VRF）系統等）、技術（變頻系統和非變頻系統）、最終用戶（住宅、商業、工業）、製冷量（10噸以下、11-18噸、其他）和銷售管道（直銷等）進行細分。市場預測以美元（USD）計價。

美國空調設備市場趨勢與洞察

用節能裝置取代現有系統

預計到2025年，全球將安裝超過9,000萬台空調，其中35%至40%的系統運作已超過15年，因此迫切需要更換空調，並轉向使用變頻空調。德克薩斯州和佛羅裡達州的電力公司透過向2010年以前生產的舊型號空調支付300至500美元的報廢補貼，鼓勵了這一趨勢，從而在製冷高峰期促進了空調的更換。在炎熱潮濕的城市，SEER2 16的變頻空調每年可節省200至350美元的冷氣成本，即使沒有稅額扣抵，投資也可在5至7年內收回成本。製造商已做出果斷響應，Lenox和Reem已於2024年中期停止生產恆速壓縮機。因此，庫存結構發生了變化，承包商和住宅現在都將高效節能的解決方案作為首選。

政府稅額扣抵和效率標準的採用

符合能源之星「最高效」標準的家用熱泵，住宅可稅額扣抵；中央空調，業主可申請最高 600 美元的稅收抵免，相當於設備和安裝成本的 30%，該優惠政策有效期至 2032 年。此外，總額達 88 億美元的《住宅能源效率回扣法案》為符合條件的家用熱泵專案提供最高 8,000 美元的銷售獎勵，到 2025 年，變頻式產品的差價將從 3,500 美元降至 1,200 美元。商業法規也加強，美國能源局(DOE) 強制要求大型組合式機組配備能源回收通風系統。這將使初始安裝成本增加 8% 至 12%，但可降低整個生命週期的運行成本 15% 至 20%。加州和華盛頓州等州已禁止在 2025 年後的大多數新建築中使用石化燃料暖通空調系統，這些州正在進一步加強這些聯邦政策，並有效地引導規範轉向電熱泵和 VRF 系統。

逆變器和熱泵技術的初始成本較高

安裝一台3噸變頻熱泵的成本為8000至12000美元，而中央空調加燃氣熱水器的成本為5500至7500美元，即使扣除聯邦稅額扣抵，後者仍然貴得多。低收入家庭佔屋主總數的35%，他們往往缺乏資金籌措，而且PACE計畫在22個州仍然無法實施。由於《住宅能源效率回扣法案》實施的延遲，截至2025年12月，在88億美元的預算撥款中，只有12億美元到達了消費者手中。 2024年徵收的關稅使變頻控制設備的進口價格上漲了15%至25%，阻礙了製造商縮小價格差距的努力。因此，變頻熱泵在東南部和中西部農村地區的普及速度緩慢，短期市場滲透率也十分低迷。

細分市場分析

預計變冷劑流量（VRF）系統將以5.73%的複合年成長率成長，超過美國整體暖通空調市場的成長速度，因為建築物業主正在用模組化VRF系統替換固定容量的屋頂空調。到2025年，分離式和多聯式空調機組將佔42.53%的銷售佔有率，這主要得益於其在獨棟住宅中滲透率的提高。但多戶住宅開發商和學區也越來越要求採用VRF系統，以降低30-40%的能耗並更好地利用屋頂空間。

B級辦公室和綜合用途物業的積極維修工程正在加速VRF系統的普及。 2024年，特靈科技與三菱重工合作，利用本地VRF生產和特靈的銷售網路，成功進軍價值40億美元的商業維修市場。在小型住宅中，分離式空調系統仍然是首選，尤其是無管道迷你分離式空調系統可以避免昂貴的管道工程。整體式空調機組在小規模商業空間中仍保持著穩定的市場佔有率，但美國能源局（DOE）新的通風法規提高了初始成本，促使設計師轉向VRF系統以尋求更高的能源效率。

預計到2025年，變頻平台將佔銷售額的68.86%，並在2031年之前以5.53%的複合年成長率持續成長。這主要得益於美國能源局能源部（DOE）的最低能效標準，該標準實際上禁止在許多應用中使用恆速壓縮機。儘管在一些建築商優先考慮降低前期成本的地區仍然存在阻力，但電力公司越來越不願意為非變頻產品提供補貼，這進一步加速了市場轉型。

變頻器能夠靈活控制壓縮機的轉速，使其在額定功率的20%至100%範圍內變化，從而消除短週期運行，使住宅系統節能25%至35%，商業系統節能30%至45%。雖然電子元件的比例增加了40%至50%，對利潤率造成了壓力，但規模經濟和國內採購將逐步抵銷成本增加的影響。到2025年，已有12個州通過建築規範，強制要求所有新建住宅暖通空調系統使用變頻器技術，這項政策正在未來的建築中廣泛應用。

其他好處：

  • Excel格式的市場預測（ME）表
  • 3個月的分析師支持

目錄

第1章：引言

  • 研究假設和市場定義
  • 調查範圍

第2章：調查方法

第3章執行摘要

第4章 市場狀況

  • 市場概覽
  • 市場促進因素
    • 用節能設備取代現有系統
    • 政府推出稅額扣抵和效率標準
    • 熱泵的迅速普及是由電氣化目標所推動的。
    • 對智慧連網空調系統的需求日益成長
    • 利用公共產業熱能網路實現商業屋頂電氣化。
    • 擴大墨西哥灣沿岸地區低全球暖化潛勢冷媒的生產能力
  • 市場限制因素
    • 逆變器和熱泵技術的初始成本較高
    • 半導體和壓縮機組件供應鏈瓶頸
    • 安裝和維護工作中技術純熟勞工短缺
    • 針對HFO冷媒的PFAS新規
  • 產業供應鏈分析
  • 監理情勢
  • 技術展望
  • 宏觀經濟因素對市場的影響
  • 波特五力分析
  • 投資分析

第5章 市場規模與成長預測

  • 依產品類型
    • 分離式和多聯式系統
    • 可變冷媒流量（VRF）系統
    • 包裝式和屋頂式機組
    • 冷卻器
  • 透過技術
    • 逆變器系統
    • 非變頻系統
  • 最終用戶
    • 住宅
    • 商業
    • 產業
  • 按產能（冷凍噸）
    • 10噸或以下
    • 11-18噸
    • 19-26噸
    • 超過26噸
  • 透過分銷管道
    • 直銷
    • 經銷商/零售商
    • 線上

第6章 競爭情勢

  • 市場集中度
  • 策略趨勢
  • 市佔率分析
  • 公司簡介
    • Daikin Industries, Ltd.
    • Carrier Global Corporation
    • Trane Technologies plc
    • Johnson Controls International plc
    • Lennox International Inc.
    • Rheem Manufacturing Company
    • Gree Electric Appliances Inc.
    • Midea Group Co. Ltd.
    • Haier Smart Home Co. Ltd.
    • LG Electronics Inc.
    • Panasonic Corporation
    • Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
    • Toshiba Carrier Corporation
    • Emerson Electric Company
    • Nortek Global HVAC LLC
    • Hitachi-Johnson Controls Air Conditioning Inc.
    • Whirlpool Corporation
    • Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd.
    • Fujitsu General Limited
    • Bosch Thermotechnology Corp.

第7章 市場機會與未來展望

簡介目錄
Product Code: 91614

According to Mordor Intelligence, the United States air conditioning equipment market size is USD 37.62 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 47.71 billion by 2031, reflecting a 4.86% CAGR over the forecast period.

United States Air Conditioning Equipment - Market - IMG1

This report is Segmented by Product Type (Split and Multi-Split Systems, Variable Refrigerant Flow Systems, and More), Technology (Inverter Systems, and Non-Inverter Systems), End-User (Residential, Commercial, and Industrial), Capacity (Up To 10 Tons, 11-18 Tons, and More), Distribution Channel (Direct Sales, and More). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

United States Air Conditioning Equipment Market Trends and Insights

Replacement of Existing Systems with Energy-Efficient Units

A base of more than 90 million units in 2025 translated into 35%-40% of systems operating past the 15-year design life, pushing emergency replacements toward compliant inverter equipment. Utilities in Texas and Florida reinforced this shift by paying USD 300-USD 500 for scrapping pre-2010 units, which lifted replacement volumes during peak cooling seasons. A 16 SEER2 inverter model cuts annual cooling bills by USD 200-USD 350 in hot-humid cities, yielding a five-to-seven-year payback even without tax credits. Manufacturers responded decisively, with Lennox and Rheem ending fixed-speed compressor production by mid-2024. The resulting inventory mix now steers contractors and homeowners toward higher-efficiency solutions as the default.

Government Tax Credits and Efficiency Standards Adoption

Homeowners may claim 30% of equipment and installation costs, up to USD 2,000 for heat pumps and USD 600 for central air conditioners, that meet Energy Star "Most Efficient" criteria through 2032. Separately, the USD 8.8 billion Home Energy Efficiency Rebates Act offers point-of-sale incentives reaching USD 8,000 for qualifying heat pump projects, compressing the inverter premium from USD 3,500 to USD 1,200 in 2025. Commercial rules tightened as well, with the DOE mandating energy recovery ventilators on large packaged units, lifting upfront equipment prices by 8-12% but trimming lifetime operating costs 15-20%. States such as California and Washington, which prohibit fossil-fuel HVAC in most new construction after 2025, amplify these federal levers and effectively steer the specification base toward electric heat pumps and VRF systems.

High Upfront Cost of Inverter and Heat Pump Technologies

Installed costs for a 3-ton inverter heat pump range from USD 8,000 to USD 12,000, versus USD 5,500-USD 7,500 for a central air conditioner paired with a gas furnace, leaving a residual premium even after federal credits. Low-income households, which represent 35% of owner-occupied homes, often lack access to financing, and PACE programs remain unavailable in 22 states. Rollout delays in the Home Energy Efficiency Rebates Act meant only USD 1.2 billion of the USD 8.8 billion allocation had reached consumers by December 2025. Tariffs imposed in 2024 added 15%-25% to landed inverter controller costs, diluting manufacturer efforts to compress price premiums. Consequently, adoption lags in rural Southeast and Midwest communities, slowing near-term market penetration.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

  1. Rapid Penetration of Heat Pumps Driven by Electrification Goals
  2. Rising Demand for Smart and Connected AC Systems
  3. Supply Chain Bottlenecks in Semiconductor and Compressor Components

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Variable refrigerant flow systems are projected to grow at a 5.73% CAGR, surpassing the broader United States air conditioning equipment market rate as building owners replace constant-volume rooftops with modular VRF architectures. In 2025, split and multi-split units held 42.53% revenue share thanks to deep penetration in single-family homes, yet multifamily developers and school districts increasingly specify VRF to cut energy use 30%-40% and free rooftop real estate.

A thriving retrofit pipeline in Class B office buildings and mixed-use properties accelerates VRF adoption. Trane Technologies partnered with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in 2024 to localize VRF production and leverage Trane's distribution footprint, unlocking access to a USD 4 billion commercial retrofit opportunity. Split systems remain the preferred choice in small homes, especially where ductless mini-split formats avoid costly ductwork. Packaged units keep a solid niche in light commercial spaces, though new DOE ventilation mandates raise their upfront cost and coax specifiers toward VRF for higher energy productivity.

Inverter platforms controlled 68.86% of 2025 revenue and will expand at a 5.53% CAGR through 2031, powered by DOE minimum efficiency rules that effectively ban fixed-speed compressors in many applications. Limited pockets of resistance persist where builders push first-cost targets, yet utilities increasingly deny rebates to non-inverter products, reinforcing market migration.

Inverters vary compressor speed from 20%-100% of capacity, eliminating short-cycling and yielding 25%-35% residential and 30%-45% commercial energy savings. Electronic content rises 40%-50%, pressuring margins, yet scale economies and domestic sourcing gradually offset cost burdens. Twelve states had adopted code language by 2025 that requires inverter technology in all new residential HVAC systems, embedding the approach in future construction.

Complete Report Scope:

  • By Product Type
    • Split and Multi-Split Systems
    • Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) Systems
    • Packaged and Rooftop Units
    • Chillers
  • By Technology
    • Inverter Systems
    • Non-Inverter Systems
  • By End-User
    • Residential
    • Commercial
    • Industrial
  • By Capacity (Tons of Refrigeration)
    • Up to 10 Tons
    • 11 - 18 Tons
    • 19 - 26 Tons
    • Above 26 Tons
  • By Distribution Channel
    • Direct Sales
    • Dealer / Retail Stores
    • Online

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

  1. Daikin Industries, Ltd.
  2. Carrier Global Corporation
  3. Trane Technologies plc
  4. Johnson Controls International plc
  5. Lennox International Inc.
  6. Rheem Manufacturing Company
  7. Gree Electric Appliances Inc.
  8. Midea Group Co. Ltd.
  9. Haier Smart Home Co. Ltd.
  10. LG Electronics Inc.
  11. Panasonic Corporation
  12. Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
  13. Toshiba Carrier Corporation
  14. Emerson Electric Company
  15. Nortek Global HVAC LLC
  16. Hitachi-Johnson Controls Air Conditioning Inc.
  17. Whirlpool Corporation
  18. Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd.
  19. Fujitsu General Limited
  20. Bosch Thermotechnology Corp.

Additional Benefits:

  • The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
  • 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION

  • 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
  • 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

4 MARKET LANDSCAPE

  • 4.1 Market Overview
  • 4.2 Market Drivers
    • 4.2.1 Replacement of Existing Systems with Energy-Efficient Units
    • 4.2.2 Government Tax Credits and Efficiency Standards Adoption
    • 4.2.3 Rapid Penetration of Heat Pumps Driven by Electrification Goals
    • 4.2.4 Rising Demand for Smart and Connected AC Systems
    • 4.2.5 Electrification of Commercial Rooftops via Utility Thermal Energy Networks
    • 4.2.6 Growth of Low-GWP Refrigerant Manufacturing Capacity in Gulf Coast
  • 4.3 Market Restraints
    • 4.3.1 High Upfront Cost of Inverter and Heat Pump Technologies
    • 4.3.2 Supply Chain Bottlenecks in Semiconductor and Compressor Components
    • 4.3.3 Skilled Labor Shortages for Installation and Service
    • 4.3.4 Emerging PFAS Regulations Targeting HFO Refrigerants
  • 4.4 Industry Supply-Chain Analysis
  • 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
  • 4.6 Technological Outlook
  • 4.7 Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the Market
  • 4.8 Porter's Five Forces Analysis
    • 4.8.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
    • 4.8.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
    • 4.8.3 Threat of New Entrants
    • 4.8.4 Threat of Substitute Products
    • 4.8.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry
  • 4.9 Investment Analysis

5 MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH FORECASTS (VALUE)

  • 5.1 By Product Type
    • 5.1.1 Split and Multi-Split Systems
    • 5.1.2 Variable Refrigerant Flow (VRF) Systems
    • 5.1.3 Packaged and Rooftop Units
    • 5.1.4 Chillers
  • 5.2 By Technology
    • 5.2.1 Inverter Systems
    • 5.2.2 Non-Inverter Systems
  • 5.3 By End-User
    • 5.3.1 Residential
    • 5.3.2 Commercial
    • 5.3.3 Industrial
  • 5.4 By Capacity (Tons of Refrigeration)
    • 5.4.1 Up to 10 Tons
    • 5.4.2 11 - 18 Tons
    • 5.4.3 19 - 26 Tons
    • 5.4.4 Above 26 Tons
  • 5.5 By Distribution Channel
    • 5.5.1 Direct Sales
    • 5.5.2 Dealer / Retail Stores
    • 5.5.3 Online

6 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

  • 6.1 Market Concentration
  • 6.2 Strategic Moves
  • 6.3 Market Share Analysis
  • 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global Level Overview, Market Level Overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for key companies, Products and Services, and Recent Developments)
    • 6.4.1 Daikin Industries, Ltd.
    • 6.4.2 Carrier Global Corporation
    • 6.4.3 Trane Technologies plc
    • 6.4.4 Johnson Controls International plc
    • 6.4.5 Lennox International Inc.
    • 6.4.6 Rheem Manufacturing Company
    • 6.4.7 Gree Electric Appliances Inc.
    • 6.4.8 Midea Group Co. Ltd.
    • 6.4.9 Haier Smart Home Co. Ltd.
    • 6.4.10 LG Electronics Inc.
    • 6.4.11 Panasonic Corporation
    • 6.4.12 Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
    • 6.4.13 Toshiba Carrier Corporation
    • 6.4.14 Emerson Electric Company
    • 6.4.15 Nortek Global HVAC LLC
    • 6.4.16 Hitachi-Johnson Controls Air Conditioning Inc.
    • 6.4.17 Whirlpool Corporation
    • 6.4.18 Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd.
    • 6.4.19 Fujitsu General Limited
    • 6.4.20 Bosch Thermotechnology Corp.

7 MARKET OPPORTUNITIES AND FUTURE OUTLOOK

  • 7.1 White-Space and Unmet-Need Assessment