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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1876776
排碳權交易市場預測至2032年:按類型、計劃類型、組成部分、交易類型、最終用戶和地區分類的全球分析Carbon Credit Trading Market Forecasts to 2032 - Global Analysis By Type (Compliance Carbon and Voluntary Carbon), Project Type, Component, Trading Type, End User and By Geography |
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根據 Stratistics MRC 的一項研究,預計到 2025 年,全球排碳權交易市場規模將達到 165.3 億美元,到 2032 年將達到 1,850.2 億美元,在預測期內複合年成長率將達到 41.2%。
排碳權交易是一種市場機制,允許企業交換排碳權,碳權額度代表溫室氣體排放配額。該體系透過設定排放上限並鼓勵企業採取永續的做法來促進排放。排放低於限值的企業可以將多餘的碳權額度交易或出售給排放量超過限值的企業,從而兼顧環境責任和經濟效益。
企業淨零排放和ESG舉措
各行各業的公司都在公開承諾減少或抵消其溫室氣體排放,以符合永續性目標和投資者預期。這些努力推動了對檢驗排碳權的需求,因為企業正在尋求實現碳中和的可靠途徑。相關人員對透明度和環境課責日益成長的壓力也增強了市場參與企業的能力。各國政府和國際組織也鼓勵企業揭露排放和抵銷活動的資訊。因此,將碳抵消納入長期ESG策略是市場擴張的主要驅動力。
缺乏通用標準和可靠性
調查方法和認證流程的差異導致碳權額的估值和可信度存在不一致。這種不一致引發了投資者和企業的疑慮,阻礙了大規模參與。合規市場框架和自願市場框架之間的不一致進一步加劇了透明度和可比較性的複雜性。一些碳權額並不能反映真實的減排放,從而降低了市場可信度。如果沒有統一的全球準則,碳交易的可信度和擴充性將持續受到限制。
擴大基於自然的解決方案(NBS)
植樹造林、再造林和濕地復育等措施作為經濟高效的碳封存方法正日益受到重視。各國政府、非政府組織和企業正在加大對基於生態系統的計劃的投資,以產生高品質的排碳權。遙感探測技術和數位化監測、報告和檢驗(MRV)工具的進步正在提高基於自然的解決方案(NBS)計劃的可追溯性。這些措施不僅有助於減少碳排放,還有助於生物多樣性保護和增強當地社區的韌性。隨著永續金融的擴展,以NBS主導的碳權有望在未來的碳市場中發揮核心作用。
加強對抵銷利用的監管
各國政府和國際組織正在推出政策,限制企業依賴碳抵銷而非直接排放的程度。這些限制可能會降低企業對合規體系中碳權的需求。批評人士認為,過度依賴碳抵銷會阻礙真正的脫碳進程,並呼籲加強監管。因此,企業將面臨額外的合規負擔,並被要求採取綜合減排策略。對排放抵消有效性和重複累計風險的更嚴格審查也可能限制自願市場的靈活性。
新冠疫情導致工業生產放緩和排放暫時下降,干擾了碳排放交易活動。封鎖措施降低了航空和製造業等關鍵產業的需求,造成碳權價格波動。然而,這場危機重新激發了人們對永續性的關注,並為各國政府和企業加強應對氣候變遷的努力提供了機會。隨著遠距辦公成為必需,用於碳排放交易和計劃檢驗的數位化平台變得日益重要。疫情後的復甦計畫也擴大納入綠色投資和脫碳目標。
預計在預測期內,合規碳排放細分市場將佔據最大的市場佔有率。
由於合規碳排放配額在實現強制性排放目標方面發揮關鍵作用,預計在預測期內,合規碳排放配額市場將佔據最大的市場佔有率。世界各國政府正在加強總量管制與交易機制,強制各產業購買碳權額度以符合監管要求。電力、製造業和能源產業對受監管碳排放配額的需求依然強勁。歐盟排放交易體系(EU ETS)和中國國家碳市場等政策框架的強化進一步推動了市場成長。
預計在預測期內,農業領域將呈現最高的複合年成長率。
在預測期內,農業領域預計將實現最高成長率,這主要得益於再生農業、土壤碳儲存和農林業等實踐的推動。人們對氣候變遷的日益關注、政府支持計畫以及企業永續性舉措,正鼓勵農民採用保護性耕作、作物多樣化和高效灌溉等環境友善技術。這些實踐在減少排放的同時,也能改善土壤品質並產生可交易的碳權。小規模農戶參與度的提高、數位化監測解決方案的普及以及對基於自然的碳抵消需求的成長,進一步鞏固了農業在碳市場中的地位。
由於政府的大力主導和產業的快速擴張,亞太地區預計將在預測期內保持最大的市場佔有率。中國、印度和日本等國家已實施大規模的碳定價機制和永續性框架。這些經濟體的快速都市化和能源消耗促使它們更加重視排放策略。對可再生能源和植樹造林計劃的投資正在產生大量的排碳權。透過跨境碳市場進行的區域合作也有助於提高流動性和透明度。
在預測期內,由於法規結構的不斷改進和企業永續性舉措的推進,北美預計將呈現最高的複合年成長率。美國和加拿大正在擴大區域碳市場和自願抵消計畫。科技、能源和製造業的參與度不斷提高,正在增強市場格局。區塊鏈和人工智慧的融合正在提升碳權額的可追溯性和真實性。支持清潔能源轉型和碳去除技術的政策正在進一步推動市場應用。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Carbon Credit Trading Market is accounted for $16.53 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $185.02 billion by 2032 growing at a CAGR of 41.2% during the forecast period. Carbon credit trading refers to a market mechanism that enables businesses to exchange carbon credits, each symbolizing a specific amount of permissible greenhouse gas emissions. The system promotes emission reduction by capping overall emissions and incentivizing firms to use sustainable practices. Companies that produce fewer emissions than their limit can trade or sell excess credits to those surpassing their allowed quotas, fostering environmental responsibility and economic efficiency.
Corporate Net-Zero & ESG pledges
Companies across industries are pledging to reduce or offset their greenhouse gas emissions to align with sustainability goals and investor expectations. These commitments are fueling demand for verified carbon credits as firms seek credible pathways to achieve neutrality. Increasing stakeholder pressure for transparency and environmental accountability is reinforcing market participation. Governments and global organizations are also encouraging corporate disclosures related to emissions and offset activities. As a result, the integration of carbon offsetting into long-term ESG strategies is significantly boosting market expansion.
Lack of universal standards and integrity
Variations in methodologies and certification processes lead to inconsistencies in credit valuation and reliability. This lack of integrity creates skepticism among investors and corporations, slowing large-scale participation. Disparities between compliance and voluntary market frameworks further complicate transparency and comparability. Some credits fail to represent genuine emission reductions, reducing market confidence. Without harmonized global guidelines, the credibility and scalability of carbon trading remain limited.
Nature-based solutions (NBS) expansion
Initiatives such as afforestation, reforestation, and wetland restoration are gaining momentum as cost-effective methods to sequester carbon. Governments, NGOs, and corporations are increasingly investing in ecosystem-based projects to generate high-quality carbon credits. Advances in remote sensing and digital MRV (Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification) tools are enhancing the traceability of NBS projects. These initiatives not only contribute to carbon reduction but also promote biodiversity and community resilience. As sustainability financing grows, NBS-driven credits are expected to play a central role in future carbon markets.
Stricter regulatory limits on offset use
Governments and international bodies are introducing policies that limit how much companies can rely on offsets instead of direct emission reductions. Such restrictions may reduce corporate demand for credits in compliance systems. Critics argue that overreliance on offsets can delay real decarbonization efforts, prompting stricter oversight. As a result, firms may face additional compliance burdens and need to adopt integrated emission reduction strategies. Increasing scrutiny of offset validity and double-counting risks could also constrain voluntary market flexibility.
The Covid-19 pandemic disrupted carbon trading activities by slowing industrial production and reducing emissions temporarily. Lockdowns led to fluctuations in credit prices as demand from key sectors like aviation and manufacturing declined. However, the crisis renewed focus on sustainability, prompting governments and corporations to reinforce their climate action commitments. Digital platforms for carbon trading and project verification gained prominence as remote operations became necessary. Post-pandemic recovery programs have increasingly incorporated green investment and decarbonization goals.
The compliance carbon segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The compliance carbon segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period, due to its critical role in meeting mandatory emission reduction targets. Governments worldwide are strengthening cap-and-trade systems that require industries to purchase credits for regulatory compliance. The demand for regulated carbon allowances remains high across power generation, manufacturing, and energy sectors. Enhanced policy frameworks such as the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and China's national carbon market are further driving growth.
The agriculture segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the agriculture segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate, driven by practices such as regenerative farming, soil carbon storage, and agroforestry. Heightened climate concerns, supportive government programs, and corporate sustainability pledges are motivating farmers to adopt eco-friendly techniques like conservation tillage, crop diversification, and efficient irrigation. These methods cut emissions while improving soil quality, producing tradable credits. Expanding participation from smallholders, digital monitoring solutions, and rising demand for nature-based offsets are further strengthening agriculture's position in carbon markets.
During the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is expected to hold the largest market share, due to strong government initiatives and industrial expansion. Countries such as China, India, and Japan are implementing large-scale carbon pricing mechanisms and sustainability frameworks. Rapid urbanization and energy consumption in these economies have heightened focus on emission reduction strategies. Investments in renewable energy and reforestation projects are generating significant carbon credit volumes. Regional cooperation through cross-border carbon markets is also improving liquidity and transparency.
Over the forecast period, the North America region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR, owing to advancing regulatory frameworks and corporate sustainability efforts. The U.S. and Canada are expanding their regional carbon markets and voluntary offset programs. Rising participation from technology, energy, and manufacturing sectors is strengthening the market landscape. The integration of blockchain and AI is enhancing credit traceability and authenticity. Supportive policies promoting clean energy transitions and carbon removal technologies are further propelling market adoption.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Carbon Credit Trading Market include Verra, S&P Global, Gold Standard, Sylvera, South Pole, BlueSource, ClimatePartner, Climate Impact X, Climate Impact Partners, Carbon Trust, EcoAct, Xpansiv, CME Group, European Energy Exchange, and Intercontinental Exchange.
In November 2025, S&P Global announced the successful completion of its acquisition of ORBCOMM's Automatic Identification System (AIS) business. The AIS business is a leading provider of satellite data services used to track and monitor vessels, enhancing maritime visibility and delivering critical insights that support business intelligence and decision-making for clients worldwide.
In October 2025, Verra and Indonesia have signed an agreement that formalizes their partnership to expand the country's access to climate finance and strengthen the integrity of its carbon markets. The Mutual Recognition Agreement (MRA) between Verra, the world's leading standards setter for climate action and sustainable development, and Indonesia's Ministry of Environment/Environmental Protection Agency (MoE/EPA) was signed today and is effective immediately.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East & Africa Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.