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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1754025
2025-2033年核退役市場報告(依反應器類型(壓水器、沸水器、氣冷器等)、策略、產能和地區)Nuclear Decommissioning Market Report by Reactor Type (Pressurized Water Reactor, Boiling Water Reactor, Gas Cooled Reactor, and Others), Strategy, Capacity, and Region 2025-2033 |
2024年,全球核能退役市場規模達72億美元。展望未來,預計到2033年,該市場規模將達到110億美元,2025-2033年期間的複合年成長率(CAGR)為4.63%。再生能源利用率的提高、核反應器的關閉以及對放射性廢棄物管理的重視,正在擴大市場成長。
對再生能源的需求不斷增加
如今,太陽能、風能和水力發電等再生能源的成本競爭力正日益增強,與核能等傳統能源形成鮮明對比。因此,再生能源的趨勢日益增強,並可能在能源市場上與核能直接競爭。這種競爭會影響核電廠的獲利能力和營運能力,最終導致其提前退役。此外,公眾對環境問題、核子安全以及放射性廢棄物處置的認知不斷提高,這些認知會影響大眾對能源的看法和選擇,從而推動市場成長。與核能相比,再生能源通常被認為更清潔、更安全、更永續。這反過來又增加了公眾對再生能源計劃的支持和需求。公眾輿論的這種變化可能會給政策制定者帶來壓力,迫使他們優先發展再生能源,同時逐步淘汰核能,最終導致核設施的退役。核電廠的拆除也促使人們採用其他能源,例如再生能源。根據國際能源總署的報告,預計到2028年,再生能源將佔全球發電量的42%以上,其中風能和太陽能光電的佔有率將加倍,達到25%。
關閉核反應爐
世界核能協會2024年的報告稱,在過去20年中,全球共有107座核反應爐關閉。當核反應器達到其運作壽命或變得經濟不可行時,它們就會永久關閉。因此,全球核退役計畫的數量正在增加。隨著越來越多的反應爐被關閉,對能夠安全、高效、經濟地管理複雜退役過程的熟練專業人員和公司的需求也日益成長。此外,核反應器的關閉也促進了先進退役技術和方法的發展。各公司正在投入研發資金,以找到更安全、更有效率、更具成本效益的拆除、去污、廢棄物管理和場地修復方法,預計將影響核退役市場的成長。
日益關注放射性廢棄物管理
根據太平洋西北國家實驗室 (PNNL) 2022 年的報告,全球固體放射性廢棄物總量約為 3,800 萬立方米,其中 81% 已永久處置,另有 19% 處於儲存狀態,等待最終處置。核電廠退役過程中也會產生放射性廢棄物,這正成為一項重大挑戰。因此,對創新的放射性廢棄物處理和處置方法的需求日益成長。此外,監管機構正在製定嚴格的規定,以安全管理和處置退役過程中產生的放射性廢棄物。遵守這些規定對於獲得許可證和批准以繼續進行退役專案至關重要。隨著相關規則不斷變化以應對環境和安全問題,參與核電廠退役的企業正在投資廢棄物管理解決方案,以遵守這些規定。此外,有效的放射性廢棄物管理是保護公眾健康和環境的關鍵。不當處理或丟棄放射性廢棄物會造成土壤、水和空氣污染,對人類健康和環境造成長期危害。此外,監管機構、當地社區和環保組織等利害關係人正在密切審查退役項目,以確保放射性廢棄物得到安全、負責任的處理。
壓水反應器(PWR)佔據大部分市場佔有率
壓水器 (PWR) 是全球核能發電最常用的反應器技術。隨著許多此類反應器即將達到其運行壽命的終點,對退役服務的需求日益成長。此外,與其他反應器相比,壓水器體積龐大,這導致退役過程複雜,需要大量資源和專家。此外,壓水堆退役計畫通常涉及大量放射性廢棄物,需要複雜的廢棄物管理解決方案。
立即拆解佔產業最大佔有率
立即拆除是指立即從退役核設施中移除放射性物質和結構。這種方法可以釋放場地的潛在再利用或再開發潛力,最大限度地減少維護退役設施的長期財務負擔。此外,核退役市場近期技術和專業知識的發展使得立即拆除變得可行且經濟高效,從而推動了其廣泛應用。
高達 800 MW 代表領先的市場領域
與規模更大、更現代化的核電廠相比,這類核電廠中的小型反應器往往更為老舊,運作經濟可行性更低。因此,它們更有可能被退役。此外,無論核電廠規模大小,退役的監管要求和安全標準通常都大致相似,小型反應器退役的複雜性和挑戰通常與大型反應器相當。因此,800 MW 以下反應器的退役項目佔核電廠退役總需求的很大一部分。
歐洲引領市場,佔最大的核退役市場佔有率
該報告還對所有主要區域市場進行了全面分析,包括北美(美國和加拿大);亞太地區(中國、日本、印度、韓國、澳洲、印尼等);歐洲(德國、法國、英國、義大利、西班牙、俄羅斯等);拉丁美洲(巴西、墨西哥等);以及中東和非洲。報告指出,歐洲是最大的核退役區域市場。
根據世界核能協會2024年的報告,到2024年,英國將關閉36座核反應爐。歐洲有大量老化的核電站,它們即將達到運行壽命的終點。由於許多核電廠建於幾十年前,因此退役已成為必然。其次,歐洲國家擁有嚴格的核安和退役監管框架,因此需要周詳的規劃並遵守嚴格的標準。這些法規為退役活動建構了強而有力的框架,確保退役活動安全、負責地進行。
The global nuclear decommissioning market size reached USD 7.2 Billion in 2024. Looking forward, it is expected that the market will reach USD 11.0 Billion by 2033, exhibiting a growth rate (CAGR) of 4.63% during 2025-2033. Rising utilization of renewable energy sources, shutting down of nuclear reactors, and focus on radioactive waste management are expanding the market growth.
Increasing demand for renewable energy sources
Renewable energy sources like solar, wind, and hydropower are now becoming more cost-competitive with the traditional sources such as nuclear power. Therefore, the trend of renewable energy is increasing, which can directly compete with nuclear power in the energy market. The competition can affect the profitability and viability of the nuclear power plants, which results in their early decommissioning. Besides this, the rising public awareness about environmental issues and nuclear safety and radioactive waste disposal that can affect public opinion and choices on energy sources is supporting the market growth. Renewable energy is usually recognized as cleaner, safer, and more sustainable compared to nuclear power. This, in turn, is increasing the public support and demand for renewable energy initiatives. This change in the public opinion can create a pressure on the policymakers to prioritize the development of renewable energy and at the same time phase out the nuclear power, which is leading to the decommissioning of the nuclear facilities. The dismantlement of nuclear power plants is leading to the adoption of other energy sources like the renewable energy. According to the International Energy Agency report, it is expected that the renewable energy sources will account for over 42% of global electricity generation in 2028, with the share of wind and solar PV doubling to 25%.
Shutting down of nuclear reactors
The World Nuclear Association report of 2024 claims that over the past 20 years, 107 nuclear reactors were shut down across the globe. As nuclear reactors reach the end of their operational lifespans or become economically unviable, they are shut down permanently. Thus the number of nuclear decommissioning projects is rising around the world. With the growing number of reactors being shut down, there is an increasing demand for skilled professionals and firms that can manage the complex decommissioning process safely, efficiently, and cost-effectively. Besides this, the shutdown of nuclear reactors is leading to the development of advanced decommissioning technologies and methods. Companies are spending on research and development (R&D) activities to come up with the safer, more efficient, and cost-effective ways of dismantling, decontamination, waste management, and site remediation, which is anticipated to influence the nuclear decommissioning market growth.
Rising focus on radioactive waste management
As per the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) report of 2022, the total global inventory of solid radioactive waste was approximately 38 million m3, of which 81% of the total waste was disposed of permanently and a further 19% was in storage awaiting for final disposal. Radioactive waste is also generated during decommissioning activities, which is becoming a significant challenge. As a result, there is an increasing demand for innovative waste treatment and disposable methods for radioactive waste. Moreover, regulatory agencies are imposing strict rules for the safe management and disposal of radioactive waste that is produced during decommissioning activities. The compliance with these regulations is vital for getting the permits and the approvals to proceed with the decommissioning projects. As rules are changing to deal with the environmental and safety issues, firms participating in nuclear decommissioning are investing in waste management solutions to comply with these rules. In addition, effective radioactive waste management is the key to the protection of public health and the environment. Improper handling or throwing away the radioactive waste can cause the pollution of the soil, water, and air, which is leading long-term dangers to human health and the environment. Furthermore, stakeholders, among which regulatory authorities, local communities, and environmental organizations, are closely examining decommissioning projects to make sure that the radioactive waste is handled safely and responsibly.
Pressurized water reactor (PWR) accounts for the majority of the market share
Pressure water reactor (PWR) is the most used reactor technology for nuclear power generation around the world. As many of these reactors are approaching the end of their operational life spans, the need for decommissioning services is increasing. Additionally, PWRs are huge in size in comparison to other reactors, which, in turn, causes the decommissioning processes to be complicated and requires a lot of resources and experts. Moreover, PWR decommissioning projects usually involve large amounts of radioactive waste, requiring sophisticated waste management solutions.
Immediate dismantling holds the largest share of the industry
The instant removal of the radioactive materials and structures from a decommissioned nuclear facility is the immediate dismantling. This approach allows for the release of the site for potential reuse or redevelopment, minimizing the long-term financial liabilities associated with maintaining a decommissioned facility. Besides this, nuclear decommissioning market recent development of the technology and expertise is making the immediate dismantling feasible and cost-effective, thereby driving its widespread adoption.
Upto 800 MW represents the leading market segment
Smaller reactors within this segment tend to be older and less economically viable to operate compared to larger and more modern plants. Consequently, they are more likely to be decommissioned. Furthermore, regulatory requirements and safety standards for decommissioning are generally similar regardless of plant size, and complexities and challenges associated with decommissioning smaller reactors are often comparable to those of larger ones. As a result, decommissioning projects for reactors up to 800 MW represent a substantial portion of the overall nuclear decommissioning demand.
Europe leads the market, accounting for the largest nuclear decommissioning market share
The report has also provided a comprehensive analysis of all the major regional markets, which include North America (the United States and Canada); Asia Pacific (China, Japan, India, South Korea, Australia, Indonesia, and others); Europe (Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, Russia, and others); Latin America (Brazil, Mexico, and others); and the Middle East and Africa. According to the report, Europe represents the largest regional market for nuclear decommissioning.
According to the World Nuclear Association report of 2024, in UK 36 nuclear reactors were shut down by 2024. Europe has a notable number of ageing nuclear power plants that are reaching the end of their operational lifespans. As many of these plants were built several decades ago and decommissioning them are becoming a necessity. Secondly, European countries have stringent regulatory frameworks governing nuclear safety and decommissioning, which necessitate thorough planning and compliance with rigorous standards. These regulations create a robust framework for decommissioning activities, ensuring that they are carried out safely and responsibly.