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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1880381
核能退役服務市場預測至2032年:按核子反應爐類型、退役策略、容量、服務類型、最終用戶和地區分類的全球分析Nuclear Decommissioning Services Market Forecasts to 2032 - Global Analysis By Reactor Type, Decommissioning Strategy, Capacity, Service Type, End User, and By Geography |
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據 Stratistics MRC 稱,全球核能退役服務市場預計到 2025 年價值 89 億美元,到 2032 年將達到 123 億美元。
預計在預測期內,核能退役服務將以4.7%的複合年成長率成長。核設施退役服務面向那些負責規劃、拆除、去污和管理報廢核能設施放射性廢棄物的公司。這包括技術評估、核子反應爐拆解、乏燃料處理、環境修復、法規遵循和長期場地監測,從而確保設施安全退役、降低輻射風險、處置受控材料並進行負責任的土地恢復,同時幫助政府和營運商滿足嚴格的安全和環境標準。
根據核能(IAEA)和國家與經濟合作暨貿易組織核能署(OECD/NEA)的分析,已有超過200座核能發電關閉。
已達使用壽命終點的老舊核能發電廠
推動市場發展的關鍵因素在於,許多核能發電廠,特別是上世紀七、八十年代建造的核電廠,已經達到或超過了其設計使用壽命。這導致退役計劃數量持續成長,且需求可預測。許多國家的法規結構強制要求對這些設施進行退役,將老化的基礎設施從運作資產轉變為基本服務。這種持續且不可或缺的需求為市場成長奠定了堅實的基礎,並確保了未來幾十年專業退役公司穩定的合約來源。
高成本和財務挑戰
與退役相關的巨額資金負擔對市場構成重大限制。計劃通常需要數十億美元的資金,其中包括放射性廢棄物處置、安全拆除和場地修復等複雜任務。此外,長期資金的籌集和管理也面臨挑戰,同時也存在資金不足以支付債務的風險。這些巨額成本可能導致計劃延期和政治上的猶豫,因為政府和公用事業公司會仔細考慮財務影響,從而減緩新退役計劃的啟動和完成速度。
國際合作與知識共用
加強國際合作蘊藏著巨大的機遇,尤其對於那些剛起步、尚未啟動退役計畫的國家而言更是如此。透過共用最佳實踐、創新成果以及成熟計劃的經驗教訓,全球產業能夠有效降低成本、提高效率。這種合作有助於流程標準化,並促進全球部署所需專業知識的累積。此外,它也為成熟的服務供應商進入新的國際市場、提供專業服務鋪平了道路,從而加速了全球退役進程。
政治和社會層面都存在著對核能的反對。
反對意見可能會影響政府政策,導致在沒有完善退役計劃的情況下加速核能發電淘汰,或者反過來,導致政府支持延長營運期限的計劃,從而延緩退役工作。這種不確定性有可能擾亂計劃進程,並阻礙對退役技術和人才培養的長期投資。此外,公眾壓力可能會使監管核准和特定地點的活動更加複雜,從而給該行業的公司帶來營運和聲譽風險。
疫情初期,供應鏈瓶頸、封鎖和疾病導致的勞動力短缺以及因場地准入限制而造成的計劃延誤,對核能退役市場造成了衝擊。這導致在建計劃的成本增加和工期延誤。然而,鑑於核能安和監管義務的重要性,關鍵工作在採取安全預防措施的前提下得以繼續進行。市場展現出了韌性,在被壓抑的需求釋放以及老舊核能設施仍需退役這一事實的推動下,市場復甦,因此疫情的長期影響相對有限。
預計在預測期內,壓水式反應爐(PWR)細分市場將佔據最大的市場佔有率。
由於壓水式反應爐(PWR)是全球核能發電廠中最常見的反應器類型,尤其是在北美和歐洲,因此預計在預測期內,壓水反應器將佔據最大的市場佔有率。大規模的裝置容量意味著目前正在進行退役的壓水反應器機組數量也相對較多。與其他不太常見的核子反應爐類型相比,壓水反應器拆除方面積累的豐富經驗和成熟的流程使其成為一個更加成熟和可預測的服務市場,從而確保其在可預見的未來繼續保持主要市場佔有率。
預計在預測期內,即時拆除(DECON)細分市場將呈現最高的複合年成長率。
預計在預測期內,即時退役(DECON)細分市場將實現最高成長率,這主要得益於其相對於延期退役方案的優勢。此方法可在更短的時間內完成退役流程,從而降低公用事業公司的長期責任和安全成本。此外,監管趨勢也越來越傾向於快速釋放場地,而機器人技術和廢棄物處理技術的進步也使得快速退役在技術和經濟上成為可能。這種轉變使得公用事業公司能夠更快地將場地重新用於其他用途,從而帶來顯著的經濟和社會效益。
預計在預測期內,歐洲地區將維持最大的市場佔有率,這主要得益於德國全面淘汰核能等積極的政策決策,以及比利時和西班牙等其他成員國採取的類似措施。該地區老舊反應爐的永久關閉,使得退役服務的需求集中且迫切。歐洲完善的監管機構和強力的政府監管進一步鞏固了該地區作為當前除役活動和支出中心的地位。
預計亞太地區在預測期內將實現最高的複合年成長率。這主要歸功於日本在福島第一核能發電廠事故後加速除役計劃,這是一項規模龐大且複雜的工程。此外,隨著韓國等國早期核子反應爐的退役,它們也正在啟動首批大型除役計劃。對管理這些計劃所需的本地專業知識和基礎設施日益成長的需求將推動市場的快速擴張。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Nuclear Decommissioning Services Market is accounted for $8.9 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $12.3 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 4.7% during the forecast period. Nuclear decommissioning services cover companies that plan, dismantle, decontaminate, and manage radioactive waste from nuclear facilities reaching the end of life. It includes engineering assessments, reactor segmentation, spent-fuel handling, environmental remediation, regulatory compliance, and long-term site monitoring, enabling safe facility retirement, reduced radiological risks, controlled material disposal, and responsible land restoration while supporting governments and operators in meeting strict safety and environmental standards.
According to the IAEA and OECD/NEA analyses, over 200 nuclear power reactors have already been retired from service.
Aging nuclear power plants reaching end-of-life
The primary market driver is the significant cohort of nuclear power plants, particularly those built in the 1970s and 80s, now reaching or exceeding their designed operational lifespan. This creates a predictable and growing pipeline of decommissioning projects. Regulatory frameworks in many countries mandate the decommissioning of these facilities, transforming aging infrastructure from an operational asset into a required service. This consistent, non-discretionary demand establishes a solid foundation for market growth, ensuring a steady stream of contracts for specialized decommissioning firms over the coming decades.
High costs and financial challenges
The immense financial burden of decommissioning acts as a major market restraint. Projects often require billions of dollars, covering complex tasks like radioactive waste handling, safe dismantling, and site remediation. Furthermore, securing and managing these funds over long periods presents a challenge, with risks of insufficiently funded liabilities. These staggering costs can lead to project delays or political hesitation, as governments and utilities weigh the financial impact, potentially slowing the pace at which new decommissioning projects are initiated and completed.
International collaboration and knowledge sharing
Enhanced international cooperation presents a significant opportunity, particularly for nations with nascent decommissioning programs. By sharing best practices, technological innovations, and lessons learned from established projects, the global industry can drive down costs and improve efficiency. This collaboration facilitates the standardization of procedures and fosters the development of specialized expertise for global deployment. Moreover, it opens avenues for established service providers to enter new international markets, offering their specialized skills and accelerating decommissioning efforts worldwide.
Political and social opposition to nuclear energy
Opposition can influence government policy, leading to accelerated nuclear phase-outs without adequate decommissioning planning or, conversely, to political support for life-extension programs that delay decommissioning work. This uncertainty can disrupt the project pipeline and deter long-term investment in decommissioning technologies and workforce development. Additionally, social pressure can complicate regulatory approvals and site-specific activities, creating operational and reputational risks for companies in this sector.
The pandemic initially disrupted the nuclear decommissioning market through supply chain bottlenecks, workforce shortages due to lockdowns and illness, and project delays from mandated site access restrictions. This led to increased costs and schedule overruns for active projects. However, the essential nature of nuclear safety and regulatory obligations ensured that critical work continued, with adaptations for safety. The market has demonstrated resilience, with recovery driven by pent-up demand and the immutable fact that aging nuclear assets still require decommissioning, making the long-term impact moderately contained.
The pressurized water reactor (PWR) segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The pressurized water reactor (PWR) segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period, attributable to its widespread adoption as the most common reactor design in the global nuclear fleet, particularly in North America and Europe. This large installed base translates into a proportionally higher number of PWR units now entering decommissioning phases. The extensive experience and established protocols for dismantling PWRs create a more mature and predictable service market for this segment compared to other, less common reactor types, ensuring its leading volume share for the foreseeable future.
The immediate dismantling (DECON) segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the immediate dismantling (DECON) segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate due to its advantages over deferred options, driving its high growth rate. This method reduces long-term liability and security costs for operators by completing the process within a shorter timeframe. Furthermore, regulatory trends are increasingly favoring prompt site release, and advances in robotics and waste handling now make rapid dismantling more technically and economically feasible. This shift allows utilities to reclaim sites for other uses sooner, a significant financial and community benefit.
During the forecast period, the Europe region is expected to hold the largest market share due to proactive policy decisions, such as Germany's complete nuclear phase-out and similar commitments in other member states like Belgium and Spain. Ageing reactors, now permanently shut down in the region, create a concentrated and immediate demand for decommissioning services. Europe's well-established regulatory bodies and significant government oversight further solidify its position as the current epicenter for decommissioning activity and expenditure.
Over the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR, primarily fueled by Japan's accelerated decommissioning program following the Fukushima Daiichi accident, which represents a massive and complex undertaking. Additionally, countries like South Korea are embarking on their first major decommissioning projects as early reactors are retired. The growing need to develop local expertise and infrastructure to manage these projects will drive rapid market expansion.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Nuclear Decommissioning Services Market include AECOM, Bechtel Corporation, Westinghouse Electric Company LLC, EnergySolutions, Orano, Jacobs Solutions Inc., Fluor Corporation, Babcock International Group plc, Studsvik AB, NUVIA Group, GD Energy Services SAS, ENERCON GmbH, Holtec International, AtkinsRealis Group Inc., Wood plc, and Framatome.
In October 2025, Bechtel and the US Department of Energy commenced nuclear vitrification operations at the Hanford site's Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant, marking a milestone in handling legacy nuclear waste from the Manhattan Project and Cold War.
In June 2025, Babcock secured a three-year, £114 million contract to prepare for nuclear defueling of decommissioned Trafalgar Class submarines, a key enabler for the broader UK Submarine Dismantling Project.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East & Africa Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.