北美氫能產業的成長機會，2024-2040年

Growth Opportunities in the North American Hydrogen Industry, 2024-2040

出版日期: 2025年10月16日 | 出版商:

Frost & Sullivan | 英文 49 Pages | 商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內

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簡介目錄

隨著傳統氫氣消費產業的需求趨於融合，替代氫氣正逐漸成為小眾市場。

《大型建築法案》（OBBBA）的通過標誌著美國能源政策的重大轉變。該法案大幅削減了《通貨膨脹控制法案》（IRA）下對風能和太陽能發電的稅額扣抵支持，取消了住宅清潔能源稅額扣抵、節能住宅維修稅額扣抵和電動車稅額扣抵，同時延長了對石化燃料的支持。就美國的氫能前景而言，這項措施可能意味著綠色氫能產能的開發將受到更多限制，而支持藍氫開發的45Q稅收優惠政策將保持不變。同時，在加拿大，綠色氫能和藍氫的稅額扣抵將無限期地繼續有效。近期一項針對包括美國和加拿大在內的北美地區的分析預測，到2030年，低碳氫化合物總產量將達370萬噸。藍氫主導，其次是綠色氫能、紫色氫能和生物基氫能，而美國將在其中發揮主導作用。隨著市場成長日益複雜，長期財政支持將成為投資者和計劃開發商實現與傳統氫能成本競爭力的關鍵因素。在加拿大，排放強度稅額扣抵有效期至2034年，但在美國，該政策僅適用於2027年12月前開工的計劃。

本研究透過基於監管因素、市場進入和實體市場設計的3D評估和排名，概述了加拿大和美國如何與其各自的國家氫能策略保持一致。隨後，研究分析了各種氫氣商品類型的長期產量預測，概述了氫能價值鏈中的主要參與者以及各市場的主要承購商。

The enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) marks a dramatic shift in US energy policy. The OBBA significantly scales back the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) tax credit support for wind and solar power, eliminates residential clean energy credit, energy efficiency home improvement credit, and electric vehicle credits, while extending support for fossil sources of energy. For the hydrogen outlook in the US, this action means the development of green hydrogen capacity will likely become more constrained while the 45Q support blue hydrogen development remains unchanged. Meanwhile, in Canada, tax credits for green as well as blue hydrogen remain active without any time constraints. Our latest analysis of North America, including the US and Canada, indicates that total low-carbon hydrogen production will likely reach 3.7 million tonnes by 2030, led by blue hydrogen, followed by green, purple, and bio-based hydrogen, with the US leading from the front. As growth in this market becomes increasingly complex, one of the key enablers for investors and project developers to achieve cost competitiveness with conventional hydrogen will be long-term funding support. While Canada offers tax credits based on emissions intensity and availability up to 2034, the US has restricted the availability of tax credits to projects starting construction by December 2027.

This study outlines how Canada and the US are aligning with their respective national hydrogen strategies through a three-dimensional rating and ranking based on regulatory drivers, market access, and physical market design, followed by long-term production forecasts of different types of hydrogen, an overview of key incumbents across the hydrogen value chain, and the top offtakers in each country's market.

Strategic Imperatives

Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the North American Hydrogen Industry

Research Findings, Scope, Key Questions this Study Will Answer, Profiling Methodology, and Forecasting Assumptions

Key Insights
Key Findings-Country Rankings
Scope of Analysis
Key Questions This Study Will Answer
Profiling Methodology and Forecast Assumptions

Canada

Regulatory Overview-Canada
Ease of Market Access-Canada
Physical Market Design-Canada
Forecast Commentary-Canada
Top Five Applications-Canada
Country Ecosystem-Canada

United States

Regulatory Overview-United States
Ease of Market Access-United States
Physical Market Design-United States
Forecast Commentary-United States
Top Five Applications-United States
Country Ecosystem-United States

Appendix

Criteria Definitions-Criteria 1-5
Criteria Definitions-Criteria 6-10

Growth Opportunity Universe

Growth Opportunity 1: Pursuing Industrial Decarbonization by Switching to Low Carbon Hydrogen Feedstock
Growth Opportunity 2: Blue Hydrogen Production with Carbon Capture and Storage
Growth Opportunity 3: Targeting the Ammonia Industry: Clean Hydrogen Feedstock and Ammonia as a Hydrogen Carrier