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氫氣

市場調查報告書

商品編碼

1883971

2024-2040年歐洲氫能產業的成長機會

Growth Opportunities in the European Hydrogen Industry, 2024-2040

出版日期: 2025年10月10日 | 出版商:

Frost & Sullivan | 英文 80 Pages | 商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內

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簡介目錄

由於需求主要集中在傳統消費產業，因此替代氫能正逐漸成為小眾市場。

隨著歐洲能源轉型加速，替代/低碳氫化合物的市場趨勢和成長軌跡表明，其存在著利基市場機會。傳統的氫氣消費產業，包括煉油、化工和石化產業，以及鋼鐵和玻璃製造等重工業部門，都將主導其生產和需求成長。近期對歐盟主要市場和英國的分析表明，預計到2030年，低碳氫的總產量將達到300萬噸。綠氫和藍氫氫預計將引領市場，主導是紫色氫和生物基氫，其中荷蘭、德國和西班牙將處於領先地位。隨著市場成長日益複雜，投資者和計劃開發商克服挑戰的關鍵促進因素之一是長期金融支持，例如法國和義大利等國提供的10-15年期差價合約（CfD）。此類機制對於氫能產業實現與傳統氫能的成本競爭力至關重要。

本研究透過基於各國監管因素、市場進入和實體市場設計的3D評估和排名，概述了歐洲主要市場如何與其國家氫能策略相契合。隨後，研究分析了各種氫氣商品類型的長期產量預測，概述了氫能價值鏈上的主要參與者，以及各市場的主要承購商。

分析範圍

分析範圍包括以下幾種氫類型：

灰氫：這是利用天然氣蒸氣重組（SMR）技術生產的氫氣，其中甲烷與高溫蒸氣反應生成氫氣和二氧化碳。這種傳統的生產方法是碳排放強度最高的，每生產1公斤氫氣大約會排放10公斤二氧化碳。
藍氫：採用與灰色氫氣相同的蒸氣重整方法生產，但結合碳捕獲和儲存85-95% 的二氧化碳排放。
綠氫氣：利用太陽能、風力和水力發電等100%可再生能源，透過電解水製取。電解過程將水分子（H₂O）分解為氫氣和氧氣，產生氫氣的同時不會排放二氧化碳。
紫色氫（又稱粉紅色氫）：利用核能電解產生的。
生物基：透過熱化學過程（氣化、熱解）或生物過程（發酵、光生物轉化）將有機生質能原料轉化為氫氣而產生的氫氣。

三大戰略挑戰對歐洲氫能產業的影響

顛覆性技術

原因：為實現全球脫碳目標，清潔氫（H2）需要取代化石氫。然而，從成本角度來看，要取代化石氫，清潔氫的成本必須降低到灰氫成本的三分之一到五分之一（具體數值取決於生產地區），這是一項極為艱鉅的任務。從這個意義上講，清潔氫氣的生產過程需要降低電力成本並提高能源利用效率。
弗羅斯特的觀點：提高能耗效率需要提高電解以及整個工廠的電力效率，這對於降低業主/營運商的營運成本至關重要。電解製造商必須不斷追求技術變革和創新，才能實現這一目標，並避免電解系統標準化程度低。

變革性大趨勢

原因：世界各國正加速邁向淨零排放目標，各自根據自身優勢和劣勢選擇不同的發展路徑。清潔氫氣生產預計將成為實現經濟需求側脫碳的關鍵途徑之一。清潔氫氣將有助於化肥生產、加氫（石油、石化和食品製造）以及脫硫和加氫裂解（原油煉製）的脫碳。
弗羅斯特的觀點：鑑於目前正在籌建的計劃數量，未來五到十年清潔氫氣生產具有巨大的成長潛力。因此，在聯邦和州政府層級推出更多扶持政策的推動下，未來幾年對電解的需求可能會增加。

產業合作

原因：實現淨零排放的競賽依賴生態系統中不同相關人員之間的合作，以達成通用目標。這可以防止成本轉嫁給消費者，維護系統可靠性，並實現脫碳目標。缺乏合作，進展將不均衡，相關人員也將無法實現其淨零排放目標。
弗羅斯特的觀點：為了加速清潔氫能的脫碳影響，需要在氫能經濟的供應端加強電解槽製造商、材料供應商和表面處理公司之間的合作，以及供需雙方之間的合作。

As the energy transition gathers pace in Europe, market evidence and the growth trajectory of alternative/low-carbon hydrogen point to a niche market opportunity where production and offtake will likely be dominated by traditional hydrogen consumption industries, including refining, chemicals, and petrochemicals, as well as heavy industrial sectors like steel and glass manufacturing. Our latest analysis of key EU markets and the UK indicates that total low-carbon hydrogen production will likely reach 3 million tonnes by 2030, led by green and blue hydrogen, followed by purple and bio-based hydrogen, with the Netherlands, Germany, and Spain leading from the front. As growth becomes increasingly complex in this market, one of the key enablers for investors and project developers to overcome this challenge has been long-term funding support, such as contracts for difference payments offered over a ten- to fifteen-year horizon in countries like France and Italy. Such mechanisms will be vital for the hydrogen industry to achieve cost competitiveness with conventional hydrogen.

This study outlines how major European markets are aligning with their respective national hydrogen strategies through a three-dimensional rating and ranking based on regulatory drivers, market access, and physical market design in each country covered in scope, followed by long-term production forecasts of different types of hydrogen, an overview of key incumbents across the hydrogen value chain, and the top offtakers in each country market.

Scope of Analysis

The scope of analysis includes the following hydrogen types:

Grey: Hydrogen produced from natural gas through steam methane reforming (SMR), where methane reacts with high-temperature steam to generate hydrogen and carbon dioxide. This conventional production method releases approximately 10 kilograms of CO2 for every kilogram of hydrogen produced, making it the most carbon-intensive form.
Blue: hydrogen is produced using the same steam methane reforming process as grey hydrogen but incorporates carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology to trap 85-95% of the CO2 emissions.
Green: hydrogen is produced through electrolysis of water using 100% renewable electricity from sources like solar, wind, or hydroelectric power. The electrolysis process splits water molecules (H2O) into hydrogen and oxygen without generating any carbon dioxide emissions.
Purple: Purple hydrogen (also called pink hydrogen) is produced through electrolysis powered by nuclear energy.
Bio-based: hydrogen produced from organic biomass materials through thermochemical processes (gasification, pyrolysis) or biological processes (fermentation, photobiological conversion) that convert organic matter into hydrogen gas.

The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the European Hydrogen Industry

Disruptive Technologies

Why: To meet global decarbonization goals, clean hydrogen (H2) must replace fossil H2. However, from a cost standpoint, to replace fossil H2, clean H2 costs must decrease three- to five-fold to reach those of grey H2, depending on the region of production-an extremely challenging feat to achieve. In that sense, the cost of electricity needs to decrease, and its consumption efficiency needs to increase during clean H2 production.
Frost Perspective: Increasing consumption efficiency requires higher electrolyzer and balance of plant electrical efficiency. This is vital to reduce the operational costs of owners/operators. Electrolyzer manufacturers must consistently pursue technology disruption and innovation to achieve this and avoid becoming trapped in lower electrolyzer system standardization.

Transformative Megatrends

Why: The world is racing to meet net-zero goals, with each country pursuing specific pathways according to their strengths and weaknesses. Clean H2 production will be a key pathway-among many-to decarbonize the economy's demand side. Clean H2 will contribute to decarbonizing fertilizer production, hydrogenation (oils, petrochemicals, and food manufacturing), and desulphurization and hydrocracking (crude oil refining).
Frost Perspective: In the next 5 to 10 years, clean H2 production's significant growth capacity will come online, considering the number of projects in the pipeline. As a result, electrolyzer demand will increase over the coming years, with the added support of federal and state-level support policies.

Industry Convergence

Why: The race to net-zero emissions is about collaboration between various ecosystem stakeholders to meet common objectives, so that costs do not pass onto consumers, to keep system reliability strong, and to reach decarbonization goals. Without collaboration, progress will be imbalanced and biased, and stakeholders will fail to meet their net-zero goals.
Frost Perspective: Collaboration in the supply side of the H2 economy-between electrolyzer manufacturers, material providers, and surface finishing providers-and between the supply and demand sides must increase to accelerate clean H2's impact on decarbonization.

Research Scope

Scope of Analysis

Strategic Imperatives

Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the European Hydrogen Industry

Research Findings, Scope, Key Questions This Study Will Answer, Profiling Methodology, and Forecasting Assumptions

Key Insights
Key Findings: Country Rankings
Key Questions This Study Will Answer
Profiling Methodology and Forecast Assumptions

Belgium

Regulatory Overview-Belgium
Ease of Market Access-Belgium
Physical Market Design-Belgium
Alternative H2 Production Outlook-Belgium
Forecast Commentary-Belgium
Top Five Applications-Belgium
Country Ecosystem-Belgium

France

Regulatory Overview-France
Ease of Market Access-France
Physical Market Design-France
Alternative H2 Production Outlook-France
Forecast Commentary-France
Top Five Applications-France
Country Ecosystem-France

Germany

Regulatory Overview-Germany
Ease of Market Access-Germany
Physical Market Design-Germany
Alternative H2 Production Outlook-Germany
Forecast Commentary-Germany
Top Five Applications-Germany
Country Ecosystem-Germany

Italy

Regulatory Overview-Italy
Ease of Market Access-Italy
Physical Market Design-Italy
Alternative H2 Production Outlook-Italy
Forecast Commentary-Italy
Top Five Applications-Italy
Country Ecosystem-Italy

Netherlands

Regulatory Overview-Netherlands
Ease of Market Access-Netherlands
Physical Market Design-Netherlands
Alternative H2 Production Outlook-Netherlands
Forecast Commentary-Netherlands
Top Five Applications-Netherlands
Country Ecosystem-Netherlands

Norway

Regulatory Overview-Norway
Ease of Market Access-Norway
Physical Market Design-Norway
Alternative H2 Production Outlook-Norway
Forecast Commentary-Norway
Top Five Applications-Norway
Country Ecosystem-Norway

Poland

Regulatory Overview-Poland
Ease of Market Access-Poland
Physical Market Design-Poland
Alternative H2 Production Outlook-Poland
Forecast Commentary-Poland
Top Five Applications-Poland
Country Ecosystem-Poland

Spain

Regulatory Overview-Spain
Ease of Market Access-Spain
Physical Market Design-Spain
Alternative H2 Production Outlook-Spain
Forecast Commentary-Spain
Top Five Applications-Spain
Country Ecosystem-Spain

Sweden

Regulatory Overview-Sweden
Ease of Market Access-Sweden
Physical Market Design-Sweden
Alternative H2 Production Outlook-Sweden
Forecast Commentary-Sweden
Top Five Applications-Sweden
Country Ecosystem-Sweden

United Kingdom

Regulatory Overview-United Kingdom
Ease of Market Access-United Kingdom
Physical Market Design-United Kingdom
Alternative H2 Production Outlook-United Kingdom
Forecast Commentary-United Kingdom
Top Five Applications-United Kingdom
Country Ecosystem-United Kingdom

Growth Opportunity Universe in Software-Defined Trucks

Growth Opportunity 1: Take Advantage of National and State Level Funding Mechanisms to Produce Low-Carbon Hydrogen Competitively
Growth Opportunity 2: Strategic Business Positioning to Address the Growing Demand for Low-Carbon Ammonia and Methanol
Growth Opportunity 3: Import Export Opportunities of Low-Carbon Hydrogen Between Europe, the Baltic, and North Africa