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1892075

對川普2.0政策分析及其對非公路設備產業潛在影響

Strategic Analysis of Trump 2.0 Policies and Their Potential Impact on the Off-Highway Equipment Industry
出版日期: | 出版商: Frost & Sullivan | 英文 71 Pages | 商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內

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簡介目錄

預計對進口非公路設備徵收的關稅將使中型和重型設備的製造商建議零售價將上漲 3%至 6%。

美國已對墨西哥和加拿大的進口商品加徵25%的關稅。這兩個市場都與美國汽車市場緊密相連。大多數美國品牌都依賴墨西哥和加拿大進行採購和生產。加上報復性關稅，短期內北美地區的銷售和通膨可能會受到顯著影響。企業應優先考慮對供應鏈和庫存管理進行即時回應，以最大限度地降低影響。尤其是在像美國這樣的大型市場，在地採購和生產能力如今已成為必需，而不僅僅是一種選擇。

此外，汽車、鋼鐵和鋁製品製造商有望受益於人工智慧的快速普及，人工智慧將透過任務自動化和提高效率來減少系統內的浪費。人工智慧也將幫助汽車製造商加快自動駕駛汽車計劃，使美國製造商在該領域獲得競爭優勢。

然而，美國政府對內燃機汽車（ICE）而非電動車的偏好將迫使汽車製造商調整其在美國的汽車產品組合。從中長期來看，美國非公路設備相關人員預計將失去其與電動車（EV）相關的技術能力以及在全球市場上的相關競爭優勢。

分析範圍

  • 2025年以後，全球貿易和經濟成長動能將是川普政府第二任期內美國政治、貿易和政策發展複雜組合的結果。
  • 2024年全球實質GDP成長率為3.2%，預計2028年將維持3.2%-3.3%的年成長率，新興市場經濟體預計將持續引領經濟成長。
  • 基準情境考慮了川普總統對所有來自墨西哥和加拿大的進口商品徵收 25%的關稅，對來自中國的進口商品徵收 10%的關稅，以及墨西哥和加拿大相應的報復性關稅。
  • 2025年至2028年，基本案例預測對GDP的影響有限，亞洲主要汽車製造商將支撐全球需求和經濟成長。然而，在保守情境下，曠日持久且不利的貿易戰可能導致2028年全球GDP成長率下降1.5%，推動全球通膨率超過6.0%，並引發美國、加拿大、哥倫比亞、墨西哥、德國和韓國等經濟體持續數季的景氣衰退。

三大策略挑戰對非公路設備產業的影響。

地緣政治動盪

原因

美國對來自墨西哥和加拿大的進口商品徵收25%的關稅。

這兩個市場與美國汽車市場密切相關，大多數美國品牌都依賴墨西哥和加拿大進行採購和生產。

Frost的觀點

再加上報復性關稅，短期內對北美地區的銷售量和通貨膨脹可能會產生重大影響。

企業應優先考慮供應鏈和庫存管理中的即時回應，以最大限度地減少衝擊。

在地採購和生產能力不僅是潛在選擇，而且是一種必然選擇，尤其是在像美國這樣的大市場。

顛覆性技術

原因

總統已頒布一項命令，目的是確立在人工智慧領域的統治地位，並加強在數位金融領域的領導地位。

美國科技公司迅速擴展其在人工智慧及相關基礎設施方面的能力。

Frost的觀點

汽車、鋼鐵和鋁製品製造商預計將受益於人工智慧的快速普及，利用人工智慧實現任務自動化並提高效率，減少系統中的浪費。

人工智慧還將使汽車製造商能夠加快自動駕駛汽車的開發計劃，使美國汽車製造商在該領域獲得競爭優勢。

內部挑戰

原因

川普政府於2025年 12月 31 日逐步取消了 7,500 美元的聯邦電動車稅額扣抵，消除了電池式電動車和插電式混合動力汽車的一個關鍵需求促進因素。

為了彌補燃油稅收入的損失，政府還將電動和混合動力汽車的年度車輛登記附加費提高了200 至 400 美元。

Frost的觀點

透過行政命令和政策，美國政府似乎優先發展內燃機汽車（ICE）而不是電動車，這將迫使汽車製造商重新調整其在美國的汽車產品組合。

從中長期來看，美國非公路用車相關人員預計將在全球市場失去電動車能力和相關的競爭優勢。

成長驅動力

  • 亞洲汽車製造商 - 受益於友善關係：在無與倫比的成本競爭力驅動下，亞洲經濟巨頭印度和東協將在建立牢固友善關係的機會中保持韌性。強勁的國內經濟預計仍將是關鍵的成長要素。
  • 高科技與石化燃料經濟：半導體和人工智慧在中期內仍將是投資重點。包括核准在美國聯邦土地上進行油氣開發在內的重大監管變革，將推動國內油氣產業的機會。
  • 美國稅制改革及寬鬆利率：包括提案將企業所得稅率從21%降至15%在內的美國稅制改革，將鼓勵私人投資，同時減輕利息負擔並提振消費支出。美國經濟的韌性將顯著促進全球經濟成長，尤其是在開發中國家市場和新興市場。

成長抑制因素

  • 永續性投資放緩：美國退出《巴黎協定》以及對開發中國家市場和新興市場的財政和技術援助承諾可能凍結，這可能會在中期內抑制這些地區的永續性和清潔能源的採用和投資。
  • 貿易戰：本土化戰略的推進引發了關稅爭端和保護主義政策，政治領導人更注重扶持國內產業而非促進全球夥伴關係。曠日持久的貿易爭端將高成本，並減緩貿易成長。

目錄

調查範圍

  • 分析範圍

戰略要務

  • 為什麼成長變得越來越困難
  • The Strategic Imperative 8
  • 非公路設備產業三大策略要務影響

成長環境

  • 重點
  • 成長促進因素
  • 成長限制因素
  • 川普政府第二階段對非公路設備產業的影響分析
  • 國產產品與進口產品：非公路設備原始設備製造商
  • 進口零件OEM地圖
  • 非公路車輛製造業貿易流入
  • 主要汽車製造商對美國關稅的回應
  • 關稅對廠商建議零售價的影響：主要原始設備製造商和車型

川普2.0政策概述及其對宏觀經濟的影響

  • 美國總統上任百日內頒布的行政命令
  • 川普總統頒布的主要行政命令清單
  • 第一部分：川普2.0關稅政策 1/3
  • 第一部分：川普2.0關稅政策 2/3
  • 第一部分：川普2.0關稅政策 3/3

對影響汽車產業的政策進行分析

  • 可能影響非公路設備產業的行政命令

關稅對墨西哥非公路設備產業的影響

  • 非公路設備及零件進口概覽（墨西哥至美國）
  • 墨西哥製造的主要非公路設備零件
  • 墨西哥主要OEM廠商和一級供應商工廠概覽
  • 關稅對墨西哥非公路設備產業的影響：主要結論

關稅對加拿大非公路設備產業的影響

  • 非公路設備及零件進口概覽：加拿大至美國
  • 加拿大主要OEM廠商和一級供應商工廠概覽
  • 加拿大製造的主要非公路設備零件
  • 關稅對加拿大非公路設備產業的影響：主要結論

關稅對中國非公路用設備產業的影響

  • 中國向美國進口非公路用設備及零件概況
  • 中國主要OEM廠商及一級供應商工廠概況
  • 中國製造的主要非公路用設備零件
  • 關稅對中國非公路用機械產業的影響：主要結論

關稅對德國非公路設備產業的影響

  • 非公路設備及零件進口概覽（德國至美國）
  • 德國主要OEM廠商及一級供應商工廠概覽
  • 德國製造的關鍵非公路用設備零件
  • 關稅對德國非公路用設備產業的影響：主要結論

關稅對日本非公路設備產業的影響

  • 日本向美國進口非公路用設備及零件概況
  • 日本主要OEM廠商及一級供應商工廠概覽
  • 日本製造的主要非公路用設備零件
  • 關稅對日本非公路用機械產業的影響：主要結論

成長機會的考量

  • 成長機會1：重組供應鏈
  • 成長機會2：保護特定產品線
  • 成長機會3：注重創新以降低成本

附錄與後續步驟

  • 成長機會帶來的益處和影響
  • 下一步
  • 附件清單
  • 免責聲明
簡介目錄
Product Code: KBEE-42

The Tariff on Imported Off-highway Equipment is Expected to Raise the MSRP on Medium- and Large-sized Equipment by 3%-6%

The United States has levied 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada-2 markets closely connected to the US auto market. Most brands in the United States depend on Mexico and Canada for sourcing and production. Coupled with retaliatory tariffs, near-term impacts to North American volumes and inflation can be sizable. Firms should prioritize real-time supply chain and inventory management to curtail shocks. Local sourcing and production capabilities are a need rather than a potential option, especially in large markets such as the United States.

In addition, auto, steel, and aluminum producers are expected to benefit from the rapid proliferation of AI, leveraging it to cut waste in their systems by automating tasks and increasing efficiency. AI will also enable automakers to rapidly advance their autonomous vehicle projects, leading to US automakers gaining a competitive advantage in this space.

However, the US government seems to prioritize ICE vehicles over electric ones, which will force automakers to realign their vehicle portfolios for the country. In the medium term, US off-highway equipment stakeholders are expected to lose their EV capabilities and related competitive advantages in the global market.

Scope of Analysis

  • Starting 2025, the global trade and economic growth momentum will be a complex function of political, trade, and policy moves made under the second Trump administration in the United States.
  • Following a 3.2% real GDP growth in 2024, the world economy is likely to maintain a 3.2%-3.3% annual growth momentum through 2028, with emerging markets maintaining their leaderboard positions in terms of economic growth.
  • In our baseline, President Trump's 25% tariff on all Mexican and Canadian imports and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports are considered, along with proportional retaliatory tariffs from Mexico and Canada.
  • Between 2025 and 2028, within the base case, the impact on GDP will remain muted, with key Asian OEMs buoying global demand and economic growth. However, in the conservative scenario, adverse and protracted trade wars can potentially shave off 1.5% from global GDP growth in 2028, push global inflation beyond 6.0%, and induce multi-quarter recessions in economies such as the United States, Canada, Colombia, Mexico, Germany, and South Korea.

The Impact of Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Off-Highway Equipment Industry

Geopolitical Chaos

Why

The United States has levied 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada-

2 markets closely connected to the US auto market. Most brands in the United States depend on Mexico and Canada for sourcing and production.

Frost Perspective

Coupled with retaliatory tariffs, near-term impacts to North American volumes and inflation can be sizable.

Firms should prioritize real-time supply chain and inventory management to curtail shocks.

Local sourcing and production capabilities are a need rather than a potential option, especially in large markets such as the United States.

Disruptive Technologies

Why

Executive orders have been passed that seek to remove barriers to AI domination and strengthen leadership in digital finance.

Technology firms in the United States have been rapidly scaling up their capabilities around AI and the associated infrastructure.

Frost Perspective

Auto, steel, and aluminum producers are expected to benefit from the rapid proliferation of AI, leveraging it to cut waste in their systems by automating tasks and increasing efficiency.

AI will also enable automakers to rapidly advance their autonomous vehicle projects, leading to US automakers gaining a competitive advantage in this space.

Internal Challenges

Why

The Trump presidency phased out the $7,500 federal EV tax credit after 31 December 2025, removing a key demand incentive for battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.

The government also raised annual vehicle registration surcharges for EVs and hybrids by $200-$400 to offset lost fuel tax revenues.

Frost Perspective

Through its executive orders and policies, the US government seems to prioritize ICE vehicles over electric ones, which will force automakers to realign their vehicle portfolios for the country.

In the medium term, US off-highway stakeholders are expected to lose their EV capabilities and related competitive advantages in the global market.

Growth Drivers

  • Asian OEMs-Beneficiaries of Friendship: Asian behemoths, India and ASEAN, will remain resilient amid strong friendship opportunities given their unmatched cost-competitiveness. Strong domestic economies will remain an important driver.
  • High-tech and Fossil Fuel Economy: Semiconductors and AI will remain in the fiscal support spotlight through the medium term. Significant regulatory changes, including approvals for the development of oil and gas (O&G) on federal lands in the United States, will boost O&G opportunities in the country.
  • Sweeping US Tax Reforms and Easing Interest Rates: US tax reforms (e.g., the proposal to slash corporate income tax to 15% from 21%) will spur private investments while easing interest rate burdens and supporting consumer spending. A resilient US economy will largely benefit global growth momentum, especially in developing and emerging markets.

Growth Restraints

  • Decelerating Sustainability Investments: The US exit from the Paris Agreement and the likely freeze of financial and technological support commitments to developing and emerging markets will curtail sustainability and clean energy adoption and investments in these locations during the medium term.
  • Trade Wars: The localization push has led to tariff disputes and protectionist policies, with political leaders supporting domestic industries rather than fostering global partnerships. Prolonged trade conflicts will slow trade growth as businesses and consumers deal with high costs.

Table of Contents

Research Scope

  • Scope of Analysis

Strategic Imperatives

  • Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
  • The Strategic Imperative 8
  • The Impact of Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Off-Highway Equipment Industry

Growth Environment

  • Key Takeaways
  • Growth Drivers
  • Growth Restraints
  • Trump 2.0 Impact Analysis on the Off-Highway Equipment Industry
  • Domestic Production Versus Imports Exposure: Off-Highway Equipment OEMs
  • OEM Map of Imported Components
  • Off-Highway Manufacturing Sector's Trade In-Flow
  • Major OEMs' Reactions to US Tariffs
  • Tariff Impact on MSRP: Key OEMs and Equipment Types

Overview of Trump 2.0 Policies and Their Macroeconomic Impact

  • Executive Orders Issued by US Presidents in the First 100 Days
  • List of Key Executive Orders Issued by Donald Trump
  • Section 1: Trump 2.0 Tariff Policy 1/3
  • Section 1: Trump 2.0 Tariff Policy 2/3
  • Section 1: Trump 2.0 Tariff Policy 3/3

Analysis of Policies Impacting the Automotive Industry

  • Executive Orders With Possible Implications for the Off-Highway Equipment Industry

Tariff Impact on the Mexican Off-Highway Equipment Industry

  • Off-Highway Equipment and Components Import Overview, Mexico to the United States
  • Key Off-Highway Equipment Components Manufactured in Mexico
  • Snapshot of Key OEMs and Tier I Supplier Plants in Mexico
  • Tariff Impact on the Mexican Off-Highway Equipment Industry: Key Takeaways

Tariff Impact on the Canadian Off-Highway Equipment Industry

  • Off-Highway Equipment and Components Import Overview, Canada to the United States
  • Snapshot of Key OEMs and Tier I Supplier Plants in Canada
  • Key Off-Highway Equipment Components Manufactured in Canada
  • Tariff Impact on the Canadian Off-Highway Equipment Industry: Key Takeaways

Tariff Impact on the Chinese Off-Highway Equipment Industry

  • Off-Highway Equipment and Components Import Overview, China to the United States
  • Snapshot of Key OEMs and Tier I Supplier Plants in China
  • Key Off-Highway Equipment Components Manufactured in China
  • Tariff Impact on the Chinese Off-Highway Equipment Industry: Key Takeaways

Tariff Impact on the German Off-Highway Equipment Industry

  • Off-Highway Equipment and Components Import Overview, Germany to the United States
  • Snapshot of Key OEMs and Tier I Supplier Plants in Germany
  • Key Off-Highway Equipment Components Manufactured in Germany
  • Tariff Impact on the German Off-Highway Equipment Industry: Key Takeaways

Tariff Impact on the Japanese Off-Highway Equipment Industry

  • Off-Highway Equipment and Components Import Overview, Japan to the United States
  • Snapshot of Key OEMs and Tier I Supplier Plants in Japan
  • Key Off-Highway Equipment Components Manufactured in Japan
  • Tariff Impact on the Japanese Off-Highway Equipment Industry: Key Takeaways

Growth Opportunity Universe

  • Growth Opportunity 1: Recalibrating the Supply Chain
  • Growth Opportunity 2: Protecting Select Product Lines
  • Growth Opportunity 3: Focusing on Innovation to Save Costs

Appendix & Next Steps

  • Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
  • Next Steps
  • List of Exhibits
  • Legal Disclaimer