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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1876846
全球蜂巢式物聯網及低功耗廣域網路（LPWAN）市場預測至2030年Global Cellular IoT and Low-Power Wide-Area Network (LPWAN) Market, Forecast to 2030 |
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透過在公共產業、智慧城市、製造業和交通運輸領域的大規模應用，推動下一波物聯網成長浪潮。
隨著生成式人工智慧（GenAI）、嵌入式SIM卡（eSIM）和衛星網路的出現，物聯網（IoT）領域正在經歷一場重大變革時期。為了因應這些新興趨勢，本研究概述了傳統蜂巢式物聯網、大規模蜂巢式物聯網和頻寬低功率廣域網路（LPWAN）市場。
預計傳統蜂巢式物聯網連接數將從2024年的27.7億成長到2030年的44.6億，年複合成長率（CAGR）為8.3%，這主要得益於中國物聯網連接的快速擴張以及汽車、製造、銀行和金融服務等行業對4G/5G網路的需求。隨著通訊業者將2G/3G設備遷移到LTE-M和NB-IoT，以及5G RedCap的快速發展，預計2024年至2030年間，大規模蜂巢式物聯網的年複合成長率將達到16.3%。
預計到2030年，頻寬廣域網路（LPWAN）連線數將從2024年的5億成長到10.6億，複合年成長率（CAGR）為13.3%。這主要得益於公共產業對電網現代化改造的投資，以及大規模用電池供電、覆蓋範圍廣、成本低廉的設備替換燃氣表和水錶。此外，客戶也正在加速採用LoRaWAN、Sigfox和Wi-SUN等LPWAN技術，用於路燈照明、資產追蹤、農業、智慧建築等領域的大規模部署。
本研究分析了這三個市場，確定了關鍵促進因素和限制因素，以及市場規模。基準年為2024年，預測期間為2025-2030年。本研究按技術類型、地區、垂直行業和網路類型（公共/私人）進行細分。
三大策略挑戰對蜂巢式物聯網和低功耗廣域網路產業的影響
顛覆性技術
- 原因：生成式人工智慧工具正日益融入物聯網基礎架構。私人MEC（一種專為企業量身定做的、具備邊緣運算能力的私人行動網路部署）在過去兩年中已在全球迅速擴展。
- 弗若斯特洞察：根據弗若斯特沙利文公司2024年全球IT決策者（ITDM）調查，44%的企業正在物聯網硬體處理器中應用人工智慧。弗若斯特沙利文預測，到2029年，通訊業的私人行動網際網路（MEC）將以64.9%的複合年成長率成長，全球年收入將達到68.2億美元。
創新經營模式
- 原因：eSIM 的發展透過支援遠端 SIM 卡配置 (RSP)、多設定檔功能和進階編配，為創新的物聯網經營模式提供了可能。這些功能使新創公司能夠透過遠端管理連線、在通訊業者之間切換以及自動化設備生命週期管理，實現全球擴張。
- Frost的觀點：根據GSM協會（GSMA）新發布的SGP.32規範，行動通訊業者（MNO）將不再負責物聯網裝置的設定檔監控。這項服務將由eSIM提供者或設備製造商提供。致力於eSIM服務創新的行動網路營運商主要面向消費者市場。我們預計未來兩到五年內，eSIM在物聯網領域的應用將會成長。
產業融合
- 原因：大規模蜂巢式物聯網（NB-IoT、LTE-M）和大規模免許可低功耗廣域網路（LoRaWAN）的衛星整合將實現偏遠地區的廣域覆蓋。低地球軌道（LEO）*衛星的普及將實現與設備的直接連接，從而降低閘道器和基礎設施成本。
- 弗羅斯特的觀點是：“不同連接標準的整合將催生網路互聯的趨勢，使客戶能夠利用包括地面、衛星和高空平台（HAPS）在內的各種基礎設施。生態系統協作將在農業、物流和環境監測等領域創造新的應用場景。”
按連接通訊協定進行分段
傳統蜂巢式物聯網（2G/3G、4G、5G）、大規模蜂巢式物聯網（NB-IoT/LTE-M、5G RedCap）、大規模免許可低功耗廣域網路（LoRaWAN、Sigfox 等）
區域細分
亞太地區（不含中國）、中國、歐洲、拉丁美洲、中東和非洲、北美
行業細分
汽車與運輸、商業、金融服務與保險 (BFI)、製造業、智慧城市、能源與公共產業、醫療產業、零售、其他（物流與供應鏈、航太與國防、建築、教育、飯店、消費物聯網、智慧家庭、自然資源，包括採礦、石油天然氣和農業）
成長促進因素
- 2024 年和 2025 年中國物聯網連接的顯著成長正在推動傳統蜂巢式物聯網生態系統向前發展。
- 大力投資物聯網的公司，尤其是在汽車、運輸和物流領域，正在推動 4G 和 5G 連接的普及。
- eSIM 簡化了物聯網設備的啟動和管理，無需實體 SIM 卡及其物流。新的 SGP.32 GSMA 標準可望加速蜂巢式物聯網的普及。
- 5G專用網路與MEC（行動邊緣運算）在製造業中的興起將支援自主移動機器人（AMR）、用於品質檢測和預測性維護的擴增實境（AR）以及數位雙胞胎等應用，從而實現即時自動化和機器對機器通訊。
- 通訊業者和汽車製造商正在為汽車和運輸業部署 4G/5G 解決方案。蜂巢式物聯網可在 Wi-Fi 和乙太網路無法覆蓋的地區提供連接，從而支援電動車充電、資訊娛樂、導航、遠端資訊處理和車輛診斷等應用。
成長抑制因素
- 傳統蜂巢式物聯網連接服務的商品化導致了每位用戶的平均收入（ARPU）下降。即使用戶數量持續成長，連線服務的商品化仍對ARPU構成下行壓力。
- 在基本關稅情境下，全球經濟成長預計將從 2024 年的 3.2% 放緩至 2025 年的 2.8%。包括美國和中國在內的已開發市場的經濟放緩，以及主要針對晶片組和半導體的報復性關稅，正在影響供應鏈。
- 5G 獨立組網 (SA) 網路切片需要大量的基礎設施成本，而企業缺乏在內部部署和管理網路的專業知識。
- 在美洲、歐洲和亞太地區，5G 在物聯網領域的發展仍然緩慢，這些地區的市場目前專注於將 5G 整合到固定無線存取和智慧型手機中。
- 產業內缺乏標準化的解決方案和整合合作夥伴，導致垂直整合生態系統發展不足，限制了蜂巢式物聯網的可擴展性。
目錄
調查範圍
- 分析範圍
- 市場定義
- 按連接通訊協定進行分段
戰略問題
- 為什麼經濟成長變得越來越困難？
- The Strategic Imperative 8（TM）
- 三大策略挑戰對蜂巢式物聯網和低功耗廣域網路產業的影響
成長機會分析：傳統蜂巢式物聯網
- 成長指標
- 成長促進因素
- 成長抑制因素
- 連接號預測
- 技術連接預測
- 按地區分類的連線預測
- 產業連結預測
- 按網路類型分類的連線預測
- 預測分析
成長機會分析：大規模蜂巢式物聯網
- 成長指標
- 成長促進因素
- 成長抑制因素
- 連接號預測
- 技術連接預測
- 按地區分類的連線預測
- 產業連結預測
- 按網路類型分類的連線預測
- 預測分析
成長機會分析：大規模免許可低功耗廣域網
- 成長指標
- 成長促進因素
- 成長抑制因素
- 連接號預測
- 技術連接預測
- 按地區分類的連線預測
- 產業連結預測
- 按網路類型分類的連線預測
- 預測分析
成長機會領域
- 成長機會 1：連網自動駕駛汽車協助高效、無事故交通運輸
- 成長機會2：智慧城市的免許可頻寬低功耗廣域網路技術
- 成長機會 3：建立合作夥伴關係，以支援大規模蜂巢式物聯網和低功耗廣域網路技術以及促進互通性的公共產業生態系統
附錄：未來舉措
- 成長機會帶來的益處和影響
- 未來計劃
- 圖表清單
- 免責聲明
調查範圍
分析範圍
市場定義
按連接通訊協定進行分段
戰略要務
為什麼經濟成長變得越來越困難？
策略要務8 (TM)
三大策略挑戰對蜂巢式物聯網和低功耗廣域網路產業的影響
Driving the Next Wave of IoT Growth through Large-Scale Deployments in Utilities, Smart Cities, Manufacturing, and Transportation
With the emergence of generative AI (GenAI), embedded SIM (eSIM), and satellite networks, the Internet of Things (IoT) space is undergoing a profound transformation. In response to these emerging trends, this study provides an overview of the traditional cellular IoT, massive cellular IoT, and non-licensed low-power wide area network (LPWAN) markets.
Traditional cellular IoT connections are expected to grow from 2.77 billion in 2024 to 4.46 billion in 2030 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3%, fueled by massive growth in IoT connections in China and investments in automotive, manufacturing, and banking and financial services that require 4G and 5G. Massive cellular IoT will grow at a 16.3% CAGR between 2024 and 2030, as operators migrate 2G/3G devices to LTE-M and NB-IoT and 5G RedCap grows exponentially.
Non-licensed LPWAN connections are forecast to grow from 0.50 billion in 2024 to 1.06 billion in 2030 at a 13.3% CAGR, mainly due to investments from utilities seeking to modernize electricity grids and replace gas/water meters with battery-powered, large-coverage, and low-cost devices on a large scale. Furthermore, customers are accelerating the adoption of LPWAN technologies, such as LoRaWAN, Sigfox, and Wi-SUN, for large-scale deployments in street lighting, asset tracking, agriculture, and smart buildings.
This study analyzes these 3 markets, highlighting their key drivers and restraints, as well as market size. 2024 is the base year, and the forecast period is from 2025 to 2030. The study is segmented by technology type, region, vertical, and network type (public and private).
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Cellular IoT and LPWAN Industry
Disruptive Technologies
- Why: GenAI tools are being increasingly integrated into IoT infrastructures. Private MEC, a private mobile network deployment with edge computing capabilities custom-built for enterprises, has expanded globally over the past 2 years.
- Frost Perspective: Frost & Sullivan's 2024 Global IT Decision Maker (ITDM) Survey revealed that 44% of organizations utilize AI in IoT hardware and processors. Frost & Sullivan expects a CAGR of 64.9% for private MEC in telecommunications through 2029, reaching a global annual revenue of $6.82 billion.
Innovative Business Models
- Why: eSIM development enables innovative IoT business models by supporting remote SIM provisioning (RSP), multi-profile capabilities, and advanced orchestration. These features allow new companies to scale globally by remotely managing connectivity, switching between operators, and automating the device life cycle.
- Frost Perspective: According to the new GSM Association (GSMA) SGP.32 specification, MNOs will no longer manage profile monitoring in IoT devices. Instead, eSIM providers or device manufacturers will offer this service. MNOs innovating in eSIM services focus on the consumer segment. eSIM offerings for IoT will grow in the next 2-5 years.
Industry Convergence
- Why: Massive cellular IoT (NB-IoT and LTE-M) and massive non-licensed LPWAN (LoRaWAN) integration with satellites enables wider area coverage in remote locations. The proliferation of LEO* satellites enables direct-to-device connectivity, reducing costs on gateways and infrastructure.
- Frost Perspective: The convergence of different connectivity standards is giving rise to the network-of-networks trend, allowing customers to leverage various terrestrial, satellite, and high-altitude platform striving (HAPS) platforms. Ecosystem collaboration will drive new use cases across agriculture, logistics, and environmental monitoring.
Segmentation by Connectivity Protocol
Traditional Cellular IoT (2G/3G, 4G, 5G); Massive Cellular IoT (NB-IoT/LTE-M and 5G RedCap); and Massive Non-Licensed LPWAN (LoRaWAN, Sigfox, Others)
Segmentation by Region
Asia-Pacific (APAC, excluding China); China; Europe; Latin America (LATAM); Middle East and Africa (MEA); and North America
Segmentation by Vertical
Automotive and Transportation; Business, Financial Services, and Insurance (BFI); Manufacturing; Smart Cities; Energy and Utilities; Healthcare; Retail; and Others (logistics and supply chain, aerospace and defense, construction, education, hospitality, consumer IoT, smart homes, and natural resources that include mining, oil and gas, and agriculture)
Growth Drivers
- China's massive growth in IoT connections in 2024 and 2025 is pushing the traditional cellular IoT ecosystem forward.
- Enterprises making significant investments in IoT, particularly in the automotive, transportation, and logistics sectors, are driving the adoption of 4G and 5G connectivity.
- An eSIM makes it easier to activate and manage IoT devices without a physical SIM card and its logistics. The new SGP.32 GSMA standard will accelerate cellular IoT adoption.
- The rise of 5G private networks with MEC in manufacturing enables real-time automation and machine communication, supporting applications such as autonomous mobile robots (AMRs), augmented reality (AR) for quality inspections and predictive maintenance, and digital twins.
- Telcos and vehicle manufacturers are launching solutions for the automotive and transportation industry with 4G/5G. Cellular IoT ensures connectivity when Wi-Fi and Ethernet are unavailable, enabling applications such as EV charging, infotainment, navigation, telematics, and vehicle diagnosis.
Growth Restraints
- The commoditization of traditional cellular IoT connectivity service pricing is eroding ARPU. The commoditization of connectivity services puts downward pressure on average revenue per unit, even as adoption rises.
- The global growth slowdown from 3.2% in 2024 to 2.8% in 2025 is expected under a baseline tariff scenario. Economic deceleration in advanced markets, including the United States and China, coupled with retaliatory tariffs, primarily targeting chipsets and semiconductors, is affecting supply chains.
- 5G Standalone (SA) and network slicing require significant infrastructure costs, and businesses lack the expertise to deploy and manage networks internally.
- The development of 5G for IoT is still slow across the Americas, Europe, and APAC. Markets are currently focusing on integrating 5G into fixed wireless access and smartphones.
- Underdeveloped vertical ecosystems are limiting the scalability of cellular IoT as industries lack standardized solutions and integration partners.
Table of Contents
Research Scope
- Scope of Analysis
- Market Definitions
- Segmentation by Connectivity Protocol
Strategic Imperatives
- Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
- The Strategic Imperative 8™
- The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Cellular IoT and LPWAN Industry
Growth Opportunity Analysis Traditional Cellular IoT
- Growth Metrics
- Growth Drivers
- Growth Restraints
- Connections Forecast
- Connections Forecast by Technology
- Connections Forecast by Region
- Connections Forecast by Vertical
- Connections Forecast by Type of Network
- Forecast Analysis
Growth Opportunity Analysis Massive Cellular IoT
- Growth Metrics
- Growth Drivers
- Growth Restraints
- Connections Forecast
- Connections Forecast by Technology
- Connections Forecast by Region
- Connections Forecast by Vertical
- Connections Forecast by Type of Network
- Forecast Analysis
Growth Opportunity Analysis Massive Non-Licensed LPWAN
- Growth Metrics
- Growth Drivers
- Growth Restraints
- Connections Forecast
- Connections Forecast by Technology
- Connections Forecast by Region
- Connections Forecast by Vertical
- Connections Forecast by Type of Network
- Forecast Analysis
Growth Opportunity Universe
- Growth Opportunity 1: Connected/Autonomous Vehicles for Efficient and Accident-Free Transportation
- Growth Opportunity 2: Non-Licensed LPWAN Technology for Smart Cities
- Growth Opportunity 3: Alliances Encourage the Utility Ecosystem to Promote Massive Cellular IoT and LPWAN Technologies and Interoperability
Appendix & Next Steps
- Benefits and Impacts of Growth Opportunities
- Next Steps
- List of Exhibits
- Legal Disclaimer
Research Scope
Scope of Analysis
Market Definitions
Segmentation by Connectivity Protocol
Strategic Imperatives
Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Cellular IoT and LPWAN Industry
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