中國人工智慧晶片產業（2026）：地緣政治風險下的國內生產機會與挑戰

2026 China AI Chip Industry: Opportunities and Challenges for Domestic Substitution Amid Geopolitical Risk

出版日期: 2026年06月26日 | 出版商:

TrendForce | 英文 32 Pages | 商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內

價格

簡介目錄

2025年，人工智慧產業將迎來關鍵轉折點，其特點是低階記憶體（LLM）的快速擴張和人工智慧應用的大規模商業化。對於中國半導體產業而言，這不僅是縮小技術差距的契機，也是在嚴峻的地緣政治壓力下爭奪「計算主權」的一場戰役。隨著美國工業與安全局（BIS）不斷收緊並改善對華出口管制，中國人工智慧晶片產業正面臨前所未有的雙重壓力。

一方面，中國的「東方資料，西方計算（EDWC）」計畫以及大型網路公司對人工智慧基礎設施的大規模投資，推動對運算能力的巨大需求。另一方面，先進邏輯製造、高頻寬記憶體（HBM）和CoWoS先進封裝等關鍵技術的取得仍受到嚴重限制，導致供需失衡日益加劇。

主要亮點

2025年將是人工智慧產業的關鍵轉折點，其驅動力是大規模語言模型（LLM）的快速擴張和人工智慧的大規模商業化。
中國半導體產業面臨雙重壓力：既有機會縮小技術差距，又要在地緣政治緊張局勢的背景下爭取「計算主權」。
美國商務部工業與安全局（BIS）持續加強和改善對中國的出口限制。
由於「東方資料，西方計算」等舉措以及主要網路公司對人工智慧基礎設施的大規模投資，國內需求激增。
取得先進邏輯半導體製造、HBM 和 CoWoS 封裝等關鍵技術仍受到嚴重限制。
因此，電腦需求與供應之間的不平衡狀況持續擴大。

The AI industry entered a critical transition period in 2025, marked by the rapid expansion of LLMs and the large-scale commercialization of AI applications. For China’s semiconductor industry, this represents not only an opportunity to narrow the technological gap but also a battle for computing sovereignty under intense geopolitical pressure. The country’s AI chip industry is facing unprecedented pressure from two sides as the U.S.

Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) continues to tighten and refine its export controls on China,

On the one hand, China’s Eastern Data Western Compute (EDWC) initiative and the massive investments in AI infrastructure made by leading internet companies are driving enormous demand for computing power. On the other hand, access to critical technologies, including advanced logic manufacturing, high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and CoWoS advanced packaging, remains severely constrained, thereby creating a growing imbalance between demand and supply.

Key Highlights

2025 marks a critical transition for the AI industry, driven by rapid LLM expansion and large-scale AI commercialization.
China's semiconductor sector faces dual pressure: an opportunity to narrow the tech gap, yet also a battle for computing sovereignty amid geopolitical tension.
U.S. BIS continues tightening and refining export controls on China.
Domestic demand surges via the Eastern Data Western Compute initiative and heavy AI infrastructure investment from leading internet firms.
Access to critical technologies—advanced logic manufacturing, HBM, and CoWoS packaging—remains severely constrained.
Resulting imbalance between computing demand and supply continues to widen.

Table 1: China’s AI Chip Market Share, 2025

1. China’s AI Compute Market: Macroeconomic Demand and Structural Supply Gap
2. The Opportunities and Challenges Created by the U.S.–China AI Computing Race Under Geopolitical Risk
- Table 2: Impact Analysis of China’s Protection of Domestic AI Chips
3. The Conflict Between China’s AI Chip Design Capabilities and Foundry Capacity
4. Analysis of China’s Three Major AI Chip Camps
- Table 3: Classification of China’s Three Major Domestic AI Chip Camps
- Table 4: Comparison of Huawei Ascend 950 Series Variants
- Figure 1: Huawei Ascend Chip Roadmap (Overview)
- Table 5: Core Specifications of the Zhenwu Series
- Figure 2: Alibaba’s “Tong-Yun-Ge” Golden Triangle
- Table 6: P800 Specifications and Positioning
- Table 7: M-Series Dual-Track Roadmap
- Table 8: Tianchi Supernode Strategy
- Figure 3: Kunlunxin Product Roadmap
- Figure 4: Moore Threads Product Ecosystem
- Figure 5: Biren Technology Hardware Platform Migration Framework
- Table 9: Iluvatar CoreX’s Fourth-Generation Architecture Roadmap
- Figure 6: Iluvatar CoreX’s Product Ecosystem
- Figure 7: MetaX Product Roadmap
- Table 10: Cambricon’s Historic Profitability Inflection Point
- Figure 8: Cambricon Product Ecosystem
- Figure 9: Enflame Technology Product Ecosystem
- Figure 10: Hygon DCU Series Product Roadmap
- Table 11: Representative Chinese AI Chip Vendors
5. TRI’s View