![]() |
市場調查報告書
商品編碼
2044440
基於自然的解決方案 (NbS) 市場預測至 2034 年——按解決方案類型、生態系統類型、資金籌措機制、應用、最終用戶和地區分類的全球分析Nature-Based Solutions Market Forecasts to 2034 - Global Analysis By Solution Type, Ecosystem Type, Financing Mechanism, Application, End User, and By Geography |
||||||
根據 Stratistics MRC 的數據,全球天然解決方案 (NbS) 市場預計將在 2026 年達到 131 億美元,並在預測期內以 14.6% 的複合年成長率成長,到 2034 年達到 390 億美元。
以自然為基礎的解決方案(NbS)透過對自然和人為改造的生態系統進行永續管理、復原和保護,應對氣候變遷、生物多樣性喪失、水資源安全和災害風險緩解等社會挑戰。這些解決方案利用健康生態系統的力量,提供碳封存、防洪、水淨化和棲息地保護等經濟高效的服務。該市場涵蓋森林、沿海、淡水、草原和城市生態系統,應用範圍從植樹造林項目到城市綠色基礎設施,並正吸引全球各國政府、企業和金融機構日益成長的關注。
氣候變遷的影響日益惡化,適應氣候變遷勢在必行
全球氣溫升高、極端天氣事件頻繁以及海平面上升正迫使各國政府和企業將投資自然基礎設施作為經濟有效的適應策略。基於自然的解決方案(NbS),例如利用紅樹林恢復抵禦風暴潮、利用城市綠地緩解高溫以及利用濕地恢復控制洪水,能夠以低於人工替代方案的成本,顯著降低風險。氣候相關災害日益頻繁,正促使政策討論從單純的減緩措施轉向以生態系統為基礎的綜合適應框架。這種緊迫性正推動全部區域廣泛採用基於自然的解決方案,使其成為國家氣候行動計畫和企業韌性策略的重要組成部分。
缺乏長期監測和績效數據
關於基於自然的干涉措施的長期持久性和有效性的證據不足,持續限制投資者的信心和政策採納。與擁有既定工程標準和性能指標的傳統灰色基礎設施不同,基於生態系統的方法面臨量化成果的挑戰,例如氣候變遷下碳儲存的持久性以及防洪措施的可靠性。這種數據匱乏為尋求資金籌措的專案開發商帶來了不確定性,尤其是對於碳抵消等長期金融產品而言。基於自然的解決方案(NBS)監測這一相對較新的科學領域,加上不同項目間調查方法的不一致,阻礙了可比性和擴充性,儘管生態學方法的理論支持日益增強,但市場成長卻因此放緩。
自願碳市場的快速擴張
企業對淨零排放的承諾日益增強,導致對源自植樹造林、人工造林和藍碳項目的高品質排碳權的需求空前高漲。科技、航空和能源產業的領導者正投入數十億美元購買基於自然的碳移除信用額,以抵消其內部排放措施之外的剩餘排放。這種需求的激增推動了對森林保護、紅樹林復育和再生農業計畫的投資,這些計畫不僅能產生檢驗的碳權額,還能帶來生物多樣性效益。碳認證標準的日趨成熟,包括基於自然的碳移除調查方法的改進,透過提高買家和專案開發商的信譽度和透明度,進一步加速了市場參與企業。
適得其反的獎勵和土地利用競爭
推動農業擴張、伐木和城市發展的經濟壓力持續威脅著許多地區的基於自然的解決方案(NbS)計畫。具有高碳儲存潛力和生物多樣性價值的土地往往被高價用於其他商業用途,導致保護和生產目標之間的衝突。這種競爭體現在周邊地區土地利用變化損害生態系統完整性的情況下,阻礙計畫實現“額外性”,甚至可能導致目標的逆轉。商品價格波動進一步加劇了這項挑戰,農作物價格上漲可能導致保護區周邊地區的森林砍伐。如果沒有健全的政策架構來合理評估生態系服務的價值,基於市場的NbS將持續受到傳統土地利用經濟模式的威脅。
疫情初期,由於供應鏈中斷、勞動力短缺以及政府資金被挪用於醫療緊急應變,基於自然的解決方案(NbS)專案受到阻礙。在許多地區,封鎖期間現場監測、宣傳活動和生態系統修復活動都嚴重延誤。然而,這場危機也提高了人們對棲息地破壞引發通用感染疾病風險的認知,並強化了生態系統保護作為公共衛生投資的合法性。此外,一些經濟體的疫情後復甦計畫為綠色基礎設施和基於自然的氣候解決方案分配了大量資金,從而形成了長期發展動力。因此,基於自然的解決方案作為一項至關重要且具有韌性的投資,在政策層面得到了加速認可。
在預測期內,森林生態系細分市場預計將佔據最大的市場佔有率。
預計在預測期內,森林生態系領域將佔據最大的市場佔有率,這主要得益於其龐大的碳儲存能力、生物多樣性價值以及成熟的森林計畫框架。重新造林、森林造林、森林砍伐減緩和永續森林管理是全球最成熟、應用最廣泛的基於自然的解決方案(NbS)類別。森林計畫受益於完善的碳認證調查方法、豐富的生態系統效益科學文獻以及熱帶、溫帶和極地生物群落的眾多成功案例。利用遙感探測和樣地調查等相對簡單的監測方法進一步增強了投資者的信心。領先企業正優先投資森林碳抵銷項目,預計這將確保該生態系統類型在整個預測期內佔據市場主導地位。
在預測期內,「排碳權和抵消」細分市場預計將呈現最高的複合年成長率。
在預測期內,「排碳權和碳抵消」板塊預計將呈現最高的成長率,這反映了自願碳市場和包含基於自然的吸收機制的合規機制的爆炸性成長。全球數千家公司做出的淨零排放承諾,持續推動對檢驗的減排排放額的需求,而基於自然的項目因其對生物多樣性和當地社區的間接效益而獲得溢價。森林保護和恢復信用在新興合規市場中正日益受到認可,例如航空領域的國際減碳計畫(CORSIA)和《巴黎協定》第六條。遙感探測和碳蘊藏量測量技術的進步正在提高信用額的品質和透明度,並加速交易量的成長。預計在整個預測期內,這種資金籌措機制的成長軌跡將顯著優於其他融資來源。
在預測期內,北美預計將佔據最大的市場佔有率,這得益於成熟的碳市場、廣泛的官民合作關係以及完善的自然資源投資金融基礎設施。美國和加拿大已建立起健全的濕地補償銀行、保護地役權和森林碳匯計畫框架,吸引了大量機構投資。北美領導企業的永續發展措施正推動國內外專案對高品質碳權的穩定需求。美國「自然解決方案藍圖」(NbS)和加拿大「自然氣候解決方案基金」等政府專案提供了政策確定性和資金籌措槓桿。市場成熟度、監管支援和企業參與共同鞏固了北美在所有生態系統類型中的主導地位。
在預測期內,亞太地區預計將呈現最高的複合年成長率,這主要受大規模森林砍伐的壓力、快速發展的碳市場以及熱帶森林國家基於自然的項目外商投資不斷成長的推動。印尼、馬來西亞、巴布亞紐幾內亞和菲律賓等國擁有豐富的剩餘森林碳儲量和紅樹林系統的藍碳潛力,吸引尋求成本效益高的碳抵銷方案的國際買家。中國全國排放交易體系與日本聯合碳權機制的擴展,正催生區域合規需求。隨著人們對災害風險緩解益處的認知不斷提高,各國政府對紅樹林復育和流域管理的投資正在加速,尤其是在嚴重洪災和風暴過後。這些因素正使亞太地區成為基於自然的解決方案(NbS)成長最快的區域市場。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Nature-Based Solutions Market is accounted for $13.1 billion in 2026 and is expected to reach $39.0 billion by 2034 growing at a CAGR of 14.6% during the forecast period. Nature-based solutions (NBS) involve the sustainable management, restoration, and protection of natural and modified ecosystems to address societal challenges such as climate change, biodiversity loss, water security, and disaster risk reduction. These solutions leverage the power of healthy ecosystems to provide cost-effective services including carbon sequestration, flood regulation, water purification, and habitat conservation. The market spans forest, coastal, freshwater, grassland, and urban ecosystems, with applications ranging from reforestation projects to green infrastructure in cities, attracting growing interest from governments, corporations, and financial institutions worldwide.
Escalating climate change impacts and adaptation needs
Rising global temperatures, extreme weather events, and sea-level rise are compelling governments and businesses to invest in natural infrastructure as a cost-effective adaptation strategy. Nature-based solutions such as mangrove restoration for storm surge protection, urban green spaces for heat reduction, and wetland rehabilitation for flood control offer measurable risk reduction benefits at lower costs than engineered alternatives. The increasing frequency of climate-related disasters has shifted policy conversations from mitigation-only approaches to integrated adaptation frameworks that prioritize ecosystem-based responses. This urgency drives widespread adoption across vulnerable regions, positioning NBS as essential components of national climate action plans and corporate resilience strategies.
Limited long-term monitoring and performance data
Insufficient evidence on the durability and effectiveness of nature-based interventions over extended timeframes continues to constrain investor confidence and policy adoption. Unlike traditional grey infrastructure with well-established engineering standards and performance metrics, ecosystem-based approaches face challenges in quantifying outcomes such as carbon storage permanence or flood reduction reliability under changing climate conditions. This data gap creates uncertainty for project developers seeking financing, particularly for long-term credit instruments like carbon offsets. The relatively young science of NBS monitoring, combined with inconsistent methodologies across projects, hampers comparability and scalability, slowing market growth despite growing theoretical support for ecological approaches.
Rapid expansion of voluntary carbon markets
Growing corporate commitments to net-zero emissions are creating unprecedented demand for high-quality carbon credits generated from reforestation, afforestation, and blue carbon projects. Major corporations across technology, aviation, and energy sectors are allocating billions toward nature-based carbon removal credits as they seek to offset residual emissions beyond internal reduction efforts. This demand surge drives investment into forest protection, mangrove restoration, and regenerative agriculture projects that generate verifiable credits while delivering biodiversity co-benefits. The maturation of carbon certification standards, including improved methodologies for nature-based removals, further accelerates market participation by providing credibility and transparency for buyers and project developers alike.
Perverse incentives and land-use competition
Economic pressures favoring agricultural expansion, timber extraction, and urban development continue to undermine nature-based solution projects in many regions. Land with high carbon storage potential or biodiversity value often also commands premium prices for alternative commercial uses, creating conflict between conservation and production objectives. This competition manifests in projects failing to achieve additionality or facing reversal risks when surrounding land conversion undermines ecosystem integrity. The challenge intensifies as commodity prices fluctuate, with rising crop values potentially triggering deforestation adjacent to protected areas. Without strong policy frameworks that properly value ecosystem services, market-based NBS face persistent threats from conventional land-use economics.
The pandemic initially disrupted nature-based solution projects through supply chain interruptions, labor shortages, and diversion of government funding toward healthcare emergency responses. Field-based monitoring, tree planting campaigns, and ecosystem restoration activities faced significant delays during lockdown periods across many regions. However, the crisis also amplified awareness of zoonotic disease risks linked to habitat destruction, strengthening the argument for ecosystem protection as a public health investment. Additionally, post-pandemic recovery packages in several economies allocated substantial funds toward green infrastructure and nature-based climate solutions, creating long-term momentum. The net effect has been accelerated policy recognition of NBS as essential, resilient investments.
The Forest Ecosystems segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The Forest Ecosystems segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period, driven by the immense carbon storage capacity, biodiversity value, and established project frameworks for forest-based interventions. Reforestation, afforestation, reduced deforestation, and sustainable forest management represent the most mature and widely implemented nature-based solution categories globally. Forest projects have well-developed carbon certification methodologies, extensive scientific literature on ecosystem benefits, and numerous successful case studies across tropical, temperate, and boreal biomes. The relatively straightforward monitoring approaches using remote sensing and plot-based inventories further enhance investor confidence. Major corporations preferentially invest in forest offsets, cementing this ecosystem type's dominant market position throughout the forecast timeline.
The Carbon Credits and Offsets segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the Carbon Credits and Offsets segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate, reflecting the explosive expansion of voluntary carbon markets and compliance mechanisms incorporating nature-based removals. Corporate net-zero pledges from thousands of companies worldwide generate sustained demand for verified emission reduction credits, with nature-based projects commanding premium prices due to their biodiversity and community co-benefits. Emerging compliance markets, including the aviation sector's CORSIA and Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, increasingly recognize forest conservation and restoration credits. Technological advances in remote sensing and carbon stock measurement improve credit quality and transparency, accelerating trading volumes. This financing mechanism's growth trajectory substantially outpaces other funding sources throughout the forecast period.
During the forecast period, the North America region is expected to hold the largest market share, supported by mature carbon markets, extensive public-private partnerships, and sophisticated financial infrastructure for nature-based investments. The United States and Canada have developed robust frameworks for wetland mitigation banking, conservation easements, and forest carbon projects, attracting significant institutional capital. Corporate sustainability commitments from major North American companies drive consistent demand for high-quality credits from local and international projects. Government programs, including the US Nature-Based Solutions Roadmap and Canadian Natural Climate Solutions Fund, provide policy certainty and funding leverage. This combination of market maturity, regulatory support, and corporate engagement ensures North America's leadership position across all ecosystem types.
Over the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR, driven by massive deforestation pressures, rapidly developing carbon markets, and increasing foreign investment in nature-based projects across tropical forest nations. Countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, and the Philippines possess significant remaining forest carbon stocks and blue carbon potential from mangrove systems, attracting international buyers seeking cost-effective offsets. China's national emissions trading scheme expansion and Japan's Joint Crediting Mechanism create regional compliance demand. Growing recognition of disaster risk reduction benefits, particularly following severe flood and storm events, accelerates government investment in mangrove restoration and watershed management. These factors position Asia Pacific as the fastest-growing regional market for nature-based solutions.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Nature-Based Solutions Market include The Nature Conservancy, WWF International, Conservation International, Wetlands International, Ecotrust, Terraformation Inc., Verra, South Pole Group, EcoAct, ClimateCare, Regen Network, Green Climate Fund, Earthwatch Institute, Arbor Day Foundation, and Forest Trends.
In March 2026, the GCF Board approved $960.3 million in new climate finance, officially pushing its total portfolio past the $20 billion mark across 354 projects.
In December 2025, Verra released Version 5 of the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS), introducing more rigorous requirements for project additionality and baseline setting to enhance market integrity.
In November 2025, TNC launched "The Power of Policy," a strategic roadmap for governments to create regulatory environments that incentivize nature-based solutions for national water security.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Rest of the World (RoW) Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.