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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1989142
碳農業信貸市場預測至2034年-全球分析(按信貸類型、信貸機制、市場類型、檢驗方法、買方類型、農場規模、收入模式、平台類型、應用和地區分類)Carbon Farming Credit Market Forecasts to 2034 - Global Analysis By Credit Type, Credit Mechanism, Market Type, Verification Method, Buyer Type, Farm Size, Revenue Model, Platform Type, Application, and By Geography |
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根據 Stratistics MRC 的數據,預計到 2026 年,全球碳農業信貸市場規模將達到 35 億美元,並在預測期內以 18.8% 的複合年成長率成長,到 2034 年將達到 139 億美元。
碳農業信用額度是由大氣中的二氧化碳封存在土壤和生質能中的農業實踐所產生的可交易證書。這些信用額度使農民能夠將覆蓋作物、犁地和農林業等再生農業實踐貨幣化。該市場連接尋求透過農業進行碳封存和排放抵消的公司和組織,為氣候友善農業創造經濟獎勵,同時為公司提供檢驗的碳減排工具,以實現其永續發展目標。
企業淨零排放承諾
全球數百家公司已宣布雄心勃勃的淨零排放目標,這些目標除了減少自身營運產生的排放外,還需要大量清除碳排放。這些承諾正在催生對源自自然解決方案的高品質排碳權的持續需求。農業排碳權對企業具有雙重吸引力:既能排放排放,又能將供應鏈與農民整合。隨著報告期限的臨近和監管壓力的增加,企業正在加快獲取農業碳權額。土壤固碳的可靠性,以及對生物多樣性和水質的間接益處,使得這些碳權對那些尋求檢驗環境影響的企業的永續發展投資組合尤為具有吸引力。
測量和檢驗的挑戰
精確量化土壤碳固存量在技術上仍然十分複雜且成本高昂,這限制了信貸發放和買家信心。由於土壤碳含量會因地區而異,因此需要進行廣泛的基準採樣和持續監測,才能檢測到農業實踐引起的土壤碳含量變化。目前,在測量通訊協定、持久性評估和逆轉風險計算方面仍存在爭議。這些不確定性阻礙了農民考慮參與該項目,也影響了買家評估信貸品質。儘管標準化調查方法仍在繼續,但目前的技術挑戰限制了市場擴張,並增加了所有參與者的交易成本。
與農業供應鏈的整合
具有前瞻性的食品公司正將碳農業項目直接整合到其原料採購網路中,從而從其永續發展舉措中創造綜合價值。這些計畫支持農民向再生農業轉型,產生排碳權以滿足企業的碳抵銷需求,同時確保氣候適應價值鏈。採購目標與永續性目標的協調一致,建構了一個引人注目的經濟模式:排碳權收入支持農民採用能夠提高長期農業生產力的耕作方式。這種整合減少了計畫碎片化,加強了農民與企業之間的聯繫,並加速了全部區域氣候友善農業的推廣。
關於排碳權品質的爭議
一項針對自願碳市場品質問題的高調調查正在削弱包括農業碳權在內的所有碳權類別的買家信心。人們對碳權額外性、基準準確性和重複累計的擔憂,引起了媒體、監管機構和企業相關人員的密切關注。由於農業碳權極易受到管理方式變化和氣候變遷的影響,其永久性尤其受到質疑。這些爭議可能導致價格下跌,使企業使用碳抵銷的合理性難以充分論證,並引發監管干預,進而重組市場運作。持續改進檢驗標準和提高報告透明度對於重建和維護市場信心至關重要。
新冠疫情初期,供應鏈中斷和檢驗活動延誤對碳農業企業造成了衝擊。然而,這場危機最終透過加速企業對氣候韌性和供應鏈永續性的關注,增強了市場基本面。復甦支出中包含了支持農業氣候計畫的綠色獎勵策略。在旅行限制期間,遠端檢驗技術迅速發展,提高了長期監測的效率。疫情加深了人們對環境和經濟脆弱性相互關聯的認知,並增強了政策制定者和企業永續發展領導者對基於自然的氣候解決方案的承諾。
在預測期內,企業細分市場預計將成為最大的細分市場。
在預測期內,「企業」板塊預計將成為最大的市場組成部分,成為透過永續發展措施推動自願性碳市場需求的主要驅動力。科技、金融、消費品和能源產業的跨國公司正積極購買農業碳權額度,以抵消剩餘排放並展現其在環保領域的領導力。企業採購通常涉及長期合約下的大規模採購,從而為農業計劃提供穩定的收入來源。永續發展報告要求、相關人員的壓力以及聲譽方面的考慮正在推動企業參與。該板塊的購買力及其對檢驗的高品質碳權額度的偏好,正在顯著影響市場標準和定價結構。
預計在預測期內,「集約化農業計劃」細分市場將呈現最高的複合年成長率。
預計在預測期內,「集約化農業計劃」板塊將呈現最高的複合年成長率。集約化農業計劃將多個小規模農場整合到一個統一的碳排放計畫中,克服了單一農場單獨參與時經常遇到的擴充性難題。這些計劃利用集中化的測量、檢驗和銷售基礎設施,降低了單一農場的成本,並吸引了大規模的碳權額度買家。聚合商提供技術支援、管理行政事務,並將碳權額度集中起來進行市場銷售。這種模式使中小農場能夠進入原本無法進入的碳市場。隨著計畫調查方法日益成熟,農民參與度不斷提高,聚合模式正成為擴大農業碳權額度供應的最快途徑。
在預測期內,北美預計將佔據最大的市場佔有率,這得益於其完善的碳權基礎設施、強勁的企業需求以及廣闊的農業用地。美國和加拿大擁有成熟的自願性碳市場,並配備了權威的標準和檢驗機構。政府支持氣候智慧型農業的計畫也為此提供了進一步的推動力。總部位於該地區的主要食品公司正在將農業碳權納入其永續性策略。廣大的農業用地,尤其是在中西部和大平原地區,蘊藏著巨大的碳封存潛力。憑藉早期市場開發和政策支持,北美有望保持其永續的市場領導地位。
在預測期內,亞太地區預計將呈現最高的複合年成長率,這得益於其廣大的農業用地和不斷擴大的企業永續發展舉措。澳洲正透過成熟的碳農業調查方法和積極的市場參與推動區域發展。東南亞國家正在探索將小規模農戶納入碳權額度創造的農業碳計畫。中國、印度和日本政府對氣候變遷的承諾為市場擴張提供了政策支持。國際發展融資正在支持計劃開發和能力建設。隨著區域碳排放交易框架的不斷改進和企業需求的成長,亞太地區正在成為農業碳權額度成長最快的市場。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Carbon Farming Credit Market is accounted for $3.5 billion in 2026 and is expected to reach $13.9 billion by 2034 growing at a CAGR of 18.8% during the forecast period. Carbon farming credits are tradable certificates generated by agricultural practices that sequester atmospheric carbon dioxide in soils and biomass. These credits enable farmers to monetize regenerative practices including cover cropping, no-till agriculture, and agroforestry. The market connects agricultural carbon sequestration with entities seeking to offset emissions, creating financial incentives for climate-positive farming while providing corporations with verifiable carbon reduction instruments to meet sustainability commitments.
Corporate net-zero commitments
Hundreds of global corporations have announced ambitious net-zero targets requiring substantial carbon removal beyond internal operational reductions. These commitments create sustained demand for high-quality carbon credits from nature-based solutions. Agricultural carbon credits offer corporations the dual appeal of emissions offsetting and supply chain engagement with farmers. As reporting deadlines approach and regulatory pressure mounts, corporate procurement of farming credits accelerates. The credibility of soil carbon sequestration, combined with co-benefits for biodiversity and water quality, makes these credits particularly attractive for corporate sustainability portfolios seeking verified environmental impact.
Measurement and verification challenges
Quantifying soil carbon sequestration with scientific accuracy remains technically complex and costly, limiting credit issuance and buyer confidence. Soil carbon varies naturally across landscapes, requiring extensive baseline sampling and ongoing monitoring to detect changes attributable to farming practices. Disagreement persists among methodologies regarding measurement protocols, permanence assessments, and reversal risk calculations. These uncertainties create hesitation among both farmers considering program participation and buyers evaluating credit quality. Standardization efforts continue, but technical challenges currently constrain market scalability and increase transaction costs for all participants.
Integration with agricultural supply chains
Forward-thinking food companies are linking carbon farming programs directly with their ingredient sourcing networks, creating integrated value from sustainability initiatives. These programs fund farmer transitions to regenerative practices, generate carbon credits for corporate offset needs, and secure climate-resilient supply chains simultaneously. The alignment of procurement and sustainability objectives creates compelling economic models where carbon credit revenues support farmer adoption of practices that improve long-term agricultural productivity. This integration reduces program fragmentation, strengthens farmer-company relationships, and accelerates landscape-scale adoption of climate-positive agriculture across entire sourcing regions.
Carbon credit quality controversies
High-profile investigations revealing quality issues in voluntary carbon markets threaten buyer confidence across all credit categories, including agricultural credits. Concerns regarding credit additionality, accurate baselines, and double-counting have prompted intense scrutiny from media, regulators, and corporate stakeholders. Agricultural credits face particular skepticism regarding permanence given farming's vulnerability to changing management practices and climate impacts. These controversies risk depressing prices, complicating corporate communications about offset usage, and potentially triggering regulatory interventions that restructure market operations. Rebuilding and maintaining trust requires continuous improvement in verification standards and transparent reporting.
The COVID-19 pandemic initially disrupted carbon farming operations through supply chain interruptions and delayed verification activities. However, the crisis ultimately strengthened market fundamentals by accelerating corporate focus on climate resilience and supply chain sustainability. Recovery spending included green stimulus measures supporting agricultural climate programs. Remote verification technologies advanced rapidly during travel restrictions, improving long-term monitoring efficiency. The pandemic heightened awareness of interconnected environmental and economic vulnerabilities, strengthening commitment to nature-based climate solutions among both policymakers and corporate sustainability leaders.
The Corporates segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The Corporates segment is anticipated to be the largest during the forecast period as primary drivers of voluntary carbon market demand through sustainability commitments. Multinational companies across technology, finance, consumer goods, and energy sectors actively purchase farming credits to offset residual emissions and demonstrate environmental leadership. Corporate procurement typically involves large-volume purchases through long-term agreements, providing revenue stability for farming projects. Sustainability reporting requirements, stakeholder pressure, and reputational considerations motivate corporate participation. The segment's purchasing power and preference for verified, high-quality credits significantly influences market standards and pricing structures.
The Aggregated Farming Projects segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
The Aggregated Farming Projects segment is anticipated to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period. Aggregated farming projects combine multiple smaller operations into unified carbon programs, overcoming the scalability challenges inherent in individual farm participation. These projects utilize centralized measurement, verification, and marketing infrastructure to reduce per-farm costs and attract larger credit buyers. Aggregators provide technical assistance, manage administrative requirements, and pool credits for market sale. The model enables small and medium farms to access carbon markets that would otherwise remain inaccessible. As program methodologies mature and farmer participation expands, aggregation emerges as the fastest-growing pathway for scaling agricultural carbon credit supply.
During the forecast period, the North America region is expected to hold the largest market share, driven by established carbon credit infrastructure, robust corporate demand, and extensive agricultural land base. The United States and Canada feature mature voluntary carbon markets with recognized standards and verification bodies. Government programs supporting climate-smart agriculture provide additional momentum. Major food corporations headquartered in the region integrate farming credits into sustainability strategies. Extensive cropland acreage, particularly in the Midwest and Great Plains, offers substantial carbon sequestration potential. Early market development and policy support position North America for sustained market leadership.
Over the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR, supported by massive agricultural land area and growing corporate sustainability commitments. Australia leads regional development with established carbon farming methodologies and active market participation. Southeast Asian countries explore agricultural carbon programs integrating smallholder farmers into credit generation. Government climate commitments across China, India, and Japan create policy tailwinds for market expansion. International development funding supports project development and capacity building. As regional carbon trading frameworks evolve and corporate demand intensifies, Asia Pacific emerges as the fastest-growing market for farming credits.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Carbon Farming Credit Market include Indigo Ag Inc., Nori Inc., Agreena ApS, Soil Capital Belgium SA, Corteva Inc., Bayer AG, Yara International ASA, Nutrien Ltd., Syngenta Group, Cargill Incorporated, Archer Daniels Midland Company, Louis Dreyfus Company B.V., Regrow Ag Inc., Terraton Initiative, and Microsoft Corporation.
In February 2026, Indigo Ag announced the issuance of its fifth U.S. carbon crop, surpassing a milestone of 2 million metric tons of verified soil carbon impact. This issuance included 1.1 million carbon credits verified through the Climate Action Reserve (CAR).
In October 2025, Bayer expanded its "Carbon Initiative" to include over 2,600 growers across 10 countries, focusing on "carbon-smart" practices like no-till and cover cropping to store roughly one ton of carbon per acre annually.
In October 2025, Soil Capital and Royal Canin presented a two-year assessment of their joint regenerative agriculture partnership, highlighting successful transition metrics for French farmers.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Rest of the World (RoW) Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.