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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1700036
2032 年尿素市場預測:按產品類型、等級、作物類型、特種類型、技術、應用、最終用戶和地區進行的全球分析Urea Market Forecasts to 2032 - Global Analysis By Product Type, Grade, Crop Type, Specialty Type, Technology, Application, End User and By Geography |
根據 Stratistics MRC 的數據,預計 2025 年全球尿素市場規模將達到 1,455 億美元,到 2032 年將達到 1,940.7 億美元,預測期內複合年成長率為 4.2%。
尿素,別名脲,是一種富氮有機化合物,化學式為CO(NH2)2。全球化肥業嚴重依賴尿素來改善土壤肥力和提高農業產量。在哈伯-博施法中,氨和二氧化碳在高溫高壓下反應,生成尿素-一種溶解性極強的物質。尿素廣泛用於農業,但在黏合劑、樹脂和藥品生產等工業製程中也至關重要。它還透過車輛的選擇性催化還原 (SCR) 系統減少氮氧化物排放,從而提高環境永續性。
根據國際肥料協會《2024-2028中期肥料展望》預測,2023年全球尿素產量將達到1.955億噸,較2022年成長6%。
農業對肥料的需求不斷增加
由於尿素含氮量高且價格便宜,是世界上最受歡迎的氮肥。到2050年,地球人口預計將達到97億,將增加糧食需求並對農業生產造成壓力。產量農業技術利用尿素等氮肥來改善土壤肥力、提高作物產量,越來越受到農民的歡迎。此外,永續農業實踐和精密農業的使用促進了控制釋放肥料的使用,提高了生產力並減少了氮損失。
能源和原物料價格波動
天然氣和煤炭是哈伯-博施法合成氨的主要原料,也是生產尿素所必需的原料。尿素的生產成本受到政府政策變化、供應鏈中斷和地緣政治緊張局勢的影響很大,這些因素導致全球能源價格波動。北美和歐洲天然氣價格上漲,迫使化肥製造商減產並提高價格,導致終端用戶難以負擔尿素。此外,環境法規和不穩定的原料供應也影響中國和印度的煤製尿素生產。
綠色尿素和生物基尿素生產的成長
隨著永續性和碳中和肥料生產的推動,來自可再生資源的綠色尿素變得越來越可用。傳統的尿素生產是一個碳密集過程,因為它主要依賴石化燃料,尤其是煤炭和天然氣。透過碳捕獲、電化學固氮和綠色氨生產技術的發展,低排放尿素生產正在成為可能。許多公司正在投資以氫為基礎的氨合成技術,因為它比傳統技術更環保。此外,監管機構更嚴格的碳定價和排放目標正在推動對永續尿素生產的需求,預計這將帶來新的市場利基。
永續性和環境監管挑戰
由於人們日益擔心氮肥對環境的影響,尿素市場正面臨嚴重威脅。過量使用尿素基肥料會造成溫室氣體排放,尤其是氧化亞氮(N2O),導致全球暖化的可能性約為二氧化碳的300倍,同時也會造成氮淋失和地下水污染。此外,全球對化肥使用、硝酸鹽污染和氨排放的監管立法不斷加強,迫使種植者和農民轉向永續的替代品,如控制釋放製劑、有機肥料和生物肥料。
新冠疫情對尿素市場產生了多方面的影響,擾亂了全球供應鏈,同時也引發了需求波動。由於封鎖和行動限制,尿素的生產和分銷受到勞動力短缺、運輸瓶頸和原料短缺的影響。中國、印度和俄羅斯等主要尿素生產國遭遇物流挫折,港口擁擠和出口限制進一步阻礙了國際貿易。因此,在農業領域,由於持續的農場管理和政府補貼,尿素需求保持穩定或增加,而在工業領域,由於化學、汽車和建築業放緩,尿素需求下降。
預計顆粒尿素市場在預測期內將佔最大佔有率
預計在預測期內,顆粒尿素將佔據最大的市場佔有率,這主要是由於氮含量增加、處理品質更好、儲存更穩定。其粒徑大,無揚塵,分佈均勻,廣泛應用於規模農業,特別是粗放型耕作和機械化施肥。顆粒尿素溶解緩慢,使其成為有效的土壤肥料,可減少氮損失並增強作物吸收。此外,隨著精密農業和控制釋放肥料投資的增加,顆粒尿素在現代農業實踐中變得越來越必要。
預計在預測期內,飼料級的複合年成長率最高。
由於飼料級氮作為非蛋白質氮(NPN)來源在動物飼料中的應用日益增多,預計在預測期內飼料級氮將出現最高成長率。其在酪農和畜牧業的應用正值高蛋白飼料和廉價動物營養解決方案需求不斷成長的背景下,尤其是在畜牧業日益興起的新興經濟體中。此外,飼料級尿素可提高瘤胃微生物活性,並提高整體消化率和飼料效率,使其成為魚粉和大豆粕等更昂貴的蛋白質來源的理想替代品。此外,永續的畜牧業、政府對乳製品產業的支持以及全球肉品消費量的增加也在推動尿素市場的擴張。
在預測期內,亞太地區預計將佔據最大的市場佔有率,因為該地區人口眾多、農業活動活躍以及政府對化肥使用的大力支持。中國、印度、印尼等國家農業部門規模龐大,糧食需求不斷成長,已成為重要的消費國。印度很大程度上依賴進口,但也受到政府計畫和化肥補貼的推動,而中國作為世界上最大的尿素生產國,在國內消費和國際出口方面都發揮關鍵作用。此外,化學品、黏合劑和樹脂等工業應用的需求不斷成長,該地區的優勢也日益增強。
在預測期內,預計中東和非洲地區將呈現最高的複合年成長率,這得益於工業應用的擴大、化肥需求的增加以及農業投資的增加。天然氣是尿素合成的重要原料,沙烏地阿拉伯、阿拉伯聯合大公國和埃及等國家正利用天然氣蘊藏量迅速提高尿素生產能力。在政府計畫和外國對農業領域投資的幫助下,隨著對糧食安全和更好的耕作方法的關注度不斷提高,非洲的尿素消費量也正在加速成長。此外,對亞洲和歐洲出口的增加有助於該地區成為全球市場的主要企業。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Urea Market is accounted for $145.50 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $194.07 billion by 2032 growing at a CAGR of 4.2% during the forecast period. Carbamide, another name for urea, is an organic compound that is rich in nitrogen and has the chemical formula CO (NH2)2. The global fertilizer industry relies heavily on it to improve soil fertility and increase agricultural output. Through the Haber-Bosch process, ammonia and carbon dioxide react at high temperatures and pressures to produce urea, a highly soluble substance. Urea is used extensively in agriculture, but it is also essential for industrial processes like making adhesives, resins, and medications. It also improves environmental sustainability by lowering nitrogen oxide emissions in automobile selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems.
According to the International Fertilizer Association's Medium-Term Fertilizer Outlook 2024-2028, global urea production reached 195.5 million metric tons in 2023, marking a 6% increase compared to 2022.
Increasing fertilizer demand in agriculture
Due to its high nitrogen content and affordability, urea is the most popular nitrogen-based fertilizer in the world. By 2050, it is anticipated that there will be 9.7 billion people on the planet, which will increase demand for food and strain agricultural output. High-yield farming methods, which use nitrogen fertilizers like urea to improve soil fertility and increase crop yields, are becoming more and more popular among farmers. Additionally, the use of sustainable agricultural methods and precision farming is promoting the controlled release of fertilizers, increasing productivity, and lowering nitrogen losses.
Price fluctuations for energy and raw materials
Natural gas and coal, the main raw materials for ammonia synthesis in the Haber-Bosch process, are crucial to the production of urea. The cost of producing urea is greatly impacted by changes in government policies, supply chain interruptions, and geopolitical tensions that cause fluctuations in global energy prices. Urea has become less affordable for end users as a result of fertilizer manufacturers being forced to reduce production or raise prices due to rising natural gas prices in North America and Europe. Furthermore, environmental regulations and the unpredictability of raw material supplies affect the production of urea from coal in China and India.
Growth in green and bio-based urea production
Green urea from renewable sources is becoming more accessible as a result of the drive toward sustainability and carbon-neutral fertilizer production. Conventional urea production is a carbon-intensive process since it mainly depends on fossil fuels, especially coal and natural gas. Low-emission urea production is being made possible by developments in carbon capture, electrochemical nitrogen fixation, and green ammonia production. As a more environmentally friendly option to traditional techniques, a number of businesses are investing in hydrogen-based ammonia synthesis. Moreover, a new market niche is anticipated as a result of the increased demand for sustainable urea production brought about by regulatory bodies' stricter carbon pricing and emission reduction targets.
Challenges of sustainability and environmental regulations
The market for urea is seriously threatened by growing worries about the effects of nitrogen fertilizers on the environment. Overuse of urea-based fertilizers causes greenhouse gas emissions, especially nitrous oxide (N2O), which has a potential for global warming that is almost 300 times greater than that of CO2, as well as nitrogen leaching and groundwater contamination. Additionally, stricter laws governing fertilizer use, nitrate pollution, and ammonia emissions are being enforced globally, compelling producers and farmers to switch to sustainable substitutes like controlled-release formulations, organic fertilizers, and bio-fertilizers.
The COVID-19 pandemic had a mixed impact on the urea market, disrupting global supply chains while simultaneously driving demand fluctuations. The production and distribution of urea were impacted by labor shortages, transportation bottlenecks, and shortages of raw materials brought on by lockdowns and movement restrictions. Major urea-producing countries such as China, India, and Russia experienced logistical setbacks, and port congestion and export restrictions further hampered international trade. Consequently, the agricultural sector saw stable or rising demand for urea due to ongoing farming operations and government subsidies, while the industrial sector saw a decline in demand due to slowdowns in the chemical, automotive, and building sectors.
The Granular Urea segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The Granular Urea segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period, mainly because of its increased nitrogen content, better handling qualities, and more stable storage. Because of its larger particle size, which prevents dust formation and guarantees even spreading, it is widely used in large-scale agriculture, particularly in broad-acre farming and mechanized fertilizer application. Granular urea is more effective for soil application because of its slow rate of dissolution, which reduces nitrogen loss and enhances crop uptake. Moreover, granular urea is also becoming more and more necessary in contemporary farming methods due to rising investments in precision agriculture and controlled-release fertilizers.
The Feed Grade segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the Feed Grade segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate, driven by its growing use in animal feed as a source of non-protein nitrogen (NPN). Its use in the dairy and livestock industries has been driven by the growing demand for high-protein diets and affordable animal nutrition solutions, especially in emerging economies where cattle farming is growing. Additionally, feed-grade urea is a desirable substitute for pricey protein sources like fish meal and soybean meal because it increases rumen microbial activity, which improves digestion and feed efficiency overall. Its market expansion is also being driven by the increased emphasis on sustainable livestock production, government assistance for the dairy industry, and rising meat consumption globally.
During the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is expected to hold the largest market share, driven by a large population, a high level of agricultural activity, and robust government support for fertilizer use. Because of their vast agricultural sectors and rising food demand, nations like China, India, and Indonesia are significant consumers. While India mainly depends on imports to meet its agricultural needs, aided by government programs and fertilizer subsidies, China, the world's largest producer of urea, plays a significant role in both domestic consumption and international exports. Furthermore, the region's dominance is reinforced by the growing demand for industrial applications like chemicals, adhesives, and resins.
Over the forecast period, the Middle East & Africa region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR, driven by growing industrial applications, rising fertilizer demand, and rising agricultural investments. A vital raw material for urea synthesis, natural gas reserves are being used by nations like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt to quickly increase their urea production capacity. With the help of government programs and foreign investments in the agricultural sector, Africa's increased emphasis on food security and better farming practices is also speeding up the consumption of urea. Moreover, the region is becoming a major player in the global market as a result of its increasing exports to Asia and Europe.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Urea market include CF Industries Holdings, Inc., Qatar Fertilizer Company, Yara International ASA, SABIC, OCI N.V, EuroChem Group, Acron Group, Gujarat State Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd, Chambal Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd, Koch Fertilizer LLC, Nutrien AG, BASF SE, Indian Farmers Fertiliser Cooperative Ltd, Mangalore Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd and Coromandel International Limited.
In September 2024, SABIC has announced a significant move in its strategic realignment with the signing of an agreement to sell its 20.62% stake in Aluminum Bahrain (Alba) to Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma'aden). The transaction, which is valued between BHD 363 million and BHD 398 million (equivalent to SAR 3,624 million to SAR 3,974 million), is set to proceed pending regulatory approvals from authorities in both Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.
In July 2024, Yara and Atome sign Heads of Terms for offtake from Atome's renewable CAN project in Villeta, Paraguay. The deal between Atome and Yara covers the long-term supply of all of the Calcium Ammonium Nitrate (CAN) from Atome's renewable production facility in Villeta, Paraguay. The 145 MW fertilizer project will produce and export fertilizers derived from baseload renewable power from 2027.
In May 2024, EuroChem has signed an agreement with China National Chemical Engineering Co. (CNCEC) for the design, construction and commissioning of a chemical complex in Janatas, Jambyl Region, Kazakhstan. CNCEC is a global provider of industrial engineering technologies with 70 years of experience in constructing petrochemical facilities.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Middle East & Africa Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.