中國電池市場：市場佔有率分析、產業趨勢與統計及成長預測（2026-2031年）

2025年中國電池市值為387.5億美元，預計到2031年將達到837.3億美元，高於2026年的441.6億美元，預測期（2026-2031年）複合年成長率為13.65%。

本報告按類型（一次電池）、技術（鉛酸電池、鋰離子電池及其他技術）、形狀（圓柱形、棱柱形、軟包型）和應用（汽車、能源儲存系統、工業電池、攜帶式電子設備及其他）進行細分。市場規模和預測均以美元計價。

中國電池市場趨勢與洞察

全國強制推廣新能源車，帶動了二、三線城市對鋰離子電池的需求激增。

二、三線城市在電動車普及率目標的實現上已與沿海地區不相上下，這得益於一項將於2024年訂定的補貼計劃，該計劃將補貼高達15%的電池組成本。這些城市的汽車銷量佔中國總銷量的60%，因此基礎建設至關重要。到2025年建成的12萬個公共快速充電站緩解了人們對續航里程的擔憂，並創造了約50吉瓦時的新增電池需求。汽車製造商積極回應，推出了配備40-50千瓦時磷酸鐵鋰電池組、售價低於1.5萬美元的車型，使其總擁有成本（TCO）與內燃機汽車相當。電池製造商正策略性地將超級工廠選址在當地組裝附近，以降低物流成本並縮短交貨週期。這種本地化趨勢導致市場佔有率分散，使得規模較小的供應商能夠獲得獨家契約，並在主要沿海城市以外的地區挑戰老牌企業。

可再生能源佔比30%的限制引發了電網級儲能的蓬勃發展。

2024年，在可再生能源豐富的省份，棄電率達30%，裝置容量超過100兆瓦的電廠必須安裝儲能設施。 2024年公用事業規模的電池裝置容量達到73.76吉瓦，預計2027年將達到180吉瓦。寧德時代（CATL）的「Tener」磷酸鐵鋰電池系統循環壽命達6,000次，支援15年購電協議（PPA），並能降低對燃煤發電尖峰時段的依賴。與棱柱形電池相比，軟包電池的應用提高了溫度控管性能，並減少了20%的電池封裝面積。由於舊設備無法通過傳播測試，2025年8月實施的安全標準「GB 44240-2024」將加速最新系統的應用。

1.3 TWh 電池工廠即將面臨供應過剩的風險，這給利潤率帶來了壓力。

計畫產能超過2026年600吉瓦時的需求，這意味著運轉率將低於50%，價格將被限制在每千瓦時70美元左右，這可能會給資金有限的生產商帶來財務困境。政策壁壘限制了出口減稅，而美國和歐洲的反傾銷稅正在縮小剩餘電池的市場。雖然大型成熟企業可以承受暫時的虧損，但中小企業到2027年可能面臨流動性危機。這種情況讓人想起2010年代太陽能產業的整合，當時產能過剩迫使產業重組。如果債權人要求履行合約條款，資產出售和業務重組可能在所難免。

細分市場分析

預計到2025年，二次電池將佔中國電池市場佔有率的92.1%，並以13.9%的複合年成長率成長，這主要得益於新能源汽車滲透率達到乘用車銷量的38%。一次電池市場仍處於小眾階段，受到監管處置成本和能源採集裝置小型化的限制。寧德時代（CATL）的「麒麟」電芯提供150萬公里質保，可將車輛使用壽命延長至15年，並提高整體擁有成本效率。 「二次生命計畫」將廢棄汽車電池組重新利用為固定資產，使每個電芯每千瓦時回收的收益翻倍。

鉛酸電池的衰退正在加速，其殘存的成本優勢正被磷酸鐵鋰電池（LFP）卓越的循環壽命所蠶食。電動摩托車改裝鋰電池組的成本可在18個月內收回，而工業電池供應商預計到2025年銷售額將下降25%。因此，二次電池市場的複合年成長率更多是由化學電池的替代而非單純的需求成長所驅動，這凸顯了在傳統化學電池衰落之際進行戰略定位的必要性。

預計到2025年，鋰離子電池將維持75.5%的市場佔有率，並以每年14.8%的速度成長至2031年，進一步鞏固主導地位。在鋰離子電池中，磷酸鋰鐵電池（LFP）約佔汽車電池出貨量的70%。這主要得益於其低成本和不含鈷的成分。刀片式和M3P型電池的出現正在拓展磷酸鐵鋰電池的應用範圍，蠶食鎳含量較高的電池的市場佔有率。

鈉離子電池預計於2025年開始商業化出貨，能量密度為160 Wh/kg。這種化學電池系統已在售價低於1萬美元的車輛以及對體積能量密度要求不高的固定式儲能系統中佔有一席之地。固態固態電池由於智慧財產權糾紛和生產良率問題，目前仍處於試點階段。儘管這些新興的化學電池有助於分散供應風險，但鋰離子電池的經濟優勢預計將持續到2031年。

其他好處：

• Excel格式的市場預測（ME）表
• 3個月的分析師支持

目錄

第1章：引言

• 研究假設和市場定義
• 調查範圍

第2章：調查方法

第3章執行摘要

第4章 市場狀況

• 市場概覽
• 市場促進因素
  • 全國強制推廣新能源車，導致二、三線城市對鋰離子電池的需求激增。
  • 可再生能源產量減少 30%，引發了電網級儲能的快速擴張。
  • 磷酸鐵鋰電池組的價格與鉛酸電池組持平（低於 80 美元/kWh），正在加速鉛酸電池的替代。
  • 寧德時代和比亞迪的垂直整合正在減少供應鏈瓶頸和成本。
  • 各州的回收配額正在為新電池創造再生原料。
  • 對國產電池材料給予優惠增值稅退稅，正在促進國內生產。
• 市場限制因素
  • 先前宣布的 1.3 TWh 電池工廠即將出現供應過剩的風險，這給利潤率帶來了壓力。
  • 監管部門對新建燃煤電廠陰極處理設施的數量設定了上限，這限制了其能源成本優勢。
  • 印尼和剛果民主共和國出口政策的轉變導致關鍵礦產進口量發生變化
  • 圍繞固體電解質專利的智慧財產權訴訟不斷升級，延緩了實用化。
• 供應鏈分析
• 監理展望
• 技術展望
• 波特五力模型
• PESTLE分析

第5章 市場規模與成長預測

• 按類型
  • 一次電池
  • 輔助電池
• 透過技術
  • 鉛酸電池
  • 鋰離子電池
  • 其他技術（鎳氫電池、鋅空氣電池、鈉離子電池、固態電池原型）
• 按外形規格
  • 圓柱形
  • 棱鏡
  • 小袋
• 透過使用
  • 汽車（搭乘用電動車和商用電動車）
  • 能源儲存系統（公用事業規模和商業/工業規模）
  • 工業電池
  • 攜帶式電子設備
  • 其他（醫療設備、國防、船舶）

第6章 競爭情勢

• 市場集中度
• 策略性措施（併購、合資、資金籌措、購電協議）
• 市場佔有率分析（主要公司的市場排名和佔有率）
• 公司簡介
  • Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited（CATL）
  • BYD Co. Ltd.
  • CALB Group Co. Ltd.
  • EVE Energy Co. Ltd.
  • Gotion High-Tech Co. Ltd.
  • SVOLT Energy Technology Co. Ltd.
  • Farasis Energy Inc.
  • Sunwoda Electronic Co. Ltd.
  • Guoxuan High-Tech Power Energy Co. Ltd.
  • Tianjin Lishen Battery Joint-Stock Co. Ltd.
  • Hithium Energy Storage Technology Co. Ltd.
  • REPT Battero Energy Co. Ltd.
  • Great Power Energy & Technology Co. Ltd.
  • Narada Power Source Co. Ltd.
  • Tianneng Power International Ltd.
  • Panasonic Energy Co. Ltd.
  • LG Energy Solution Ltd.
  • Samsung SDI Co. Ltd.
  • Tesla Inc.（Shanghai Gigafactory Battery Operations）
  • COSMX Battery Co. Ltd.
  • Microvast Holdings Inc.
  • Ampace Technology Ltd.

第7章 市場機會與未來展望

According to Mordor Intelligence, the China battery market was valued at USD 38.75 billion in 2025 and expected to grow from USD 44.16 billion in 2026 to reach USD 83.73 billion by 2031, at a CAGR of 13.65% during the forecast period (2026-2031).

This report is Segmented by Type (Primary Battery and Secondary Battery), Technology (Lead-Acid Battery, Lithium-Ion Battery, and Other Technologies), Form Factor (Cylindrical, Prismatic, and Pouch), and Application (Automotive, Energy Storage Systems, Industrial Batteries, Portable Electronics, and Others). The Market Sizes and Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

China Battery Market Trends and Insights

Nationwide NEV Mandates Driving Lithium-Ion Demand Surge In Tier-2 And Tier-3 Cities

Tier-2 and Tier-3 municipalities now match coastal EV adoption targets, propelled by 2024 subsidies that cover up to 15% of battery pack costs. Sixty percent of China's vehicle sales occur in these cities, making infrastructure pivotal; 120,000 public fast-charging stations deployed in 2025 eliminated range anxiety and unlocked an estimated 50 GWh of new cell demand. Automakers responded with sub-USD 15,000 models fitted with 40-50 kWh LFP packs, delivering total-cost-of-ownership parity with internal-combustion cars. Battery makers strategically position gigafactories near local assembly lines, shrinking logistics costs and compressing delivery cycles. This localization fragments market share, allowing smaller suppliers to secure captive contracts and challenge incumbents outside coastal hubs.

Grid-Scale Storage Boom Triggered By 30% Renewable Curtailment Targets

Curtailment rates reached 30% in renewable-rich provinces during 2024, prompting mandatory co-located storage for projects above 100 MW. Utility-scale battery installations hit 73.76 GW in 2024 and are on course for 180 GW by 2027. CATL's Tener LFP system delivers 6,000 cycles, matching 15-year power-purchase agreements and lowering coal-peaking reliance. Adoption of pouch cells improves thermal management and shrinks container footprint by 20% compared with prismatic equivalents. Enforcement of GB 44240-2024 safety norms in August 2025 accelerates modern system uptake, as legacy installations failed propagation tests.

Imminent overcapacity risk from 1.3 TWh cell plants depressing margins

Planned capacity outstrips 2026 demand of 600 GWh, implying sub-50% utilization and a price ceiling near USD 70/kWh that could trigger distress among thinly capitalized producers. Policy barriers restrict export relief, and anti-dumping tariffs in the United States and Europe narrow outlets for surplus cells. Larger incumbents can carry negative margins temporarily, but smaller firms risk liquidity crunches by 2027. The dynamic echoes the solar shakeout of the 2010s, where overbuild forced consolidation. Asset sales and restructurings are likely once creditors enforce covenants.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. Price Parity Of LFP Packs Accelerating Lead-Acid Replacement
2. Vertical Integration By CATL And BYD Reducing Supply-Chain Bottlenecks And Costs
3. Regulatory Cap On New Coal-Power For Cathode Processing Limiting Energy Cost Advantage

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Secondary batteries occupied 92.1% of the Chinese battery market share in 2025, expanding at a projected 13.9% CAGR as NEV penetration hit 38% of passenger-car sales. Primary batteries remain niche, constrained by regulatory disposal costs and miniaturization of energy-harvesting devices. CATL's Qilin cell guarantees 1.5 million km, extending vehicle service life to 15 years and improving total ownership economics. Second-life programs turn retired automotive packs into stationary assets, doubling revenue per kilowatt-hour harvested from each cell.

Lead-acid's decline accelerates as LFP cycle life multiples erase remaining cost advantages. Electric two-wheelers retrofit lithium packs that pay back within 18 months, and industrial battery suppliers recorded 25% sales falls in 2025. The secondary segment's CAGR is therefore chemistry-substitution driven rather than pure demand growth, underscoring the need for strategic positioning as legacy chemistries fade.

Lithium-ion retained 75.5% share in 2025 and is forecast to grow at 14.8% through 2031, reinforcing its leadership in the Chinese battery market. Within lithium-ion, LFP captured roughly 70% of automotive cell shipments, buoyed by lower costs and cobalt-free bills of material. Blade and M3P variants extend LFP's range applicability, eroding the nickel-rich chemistry share.

Sodium-ion commercial shipments started in 2025 at 160 Wh/kg, positioning the chemistry for sub-USD 10,000 vehicles and stationary storage where volumetric density is less critical. Solid-state remains pilot-scale due to IP disputes and manufacturing yields. Together, emerging chemistries diversify supply risk, though lithium-ion's economic moat holds firm through 2031.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Type
  • Primary Battery
  • Secondary Battery
• By Technology
  • Lead-acid Battery
  • Lithium-ion Battery
  • Other Technologies (Ni-MH, Zinc-air, Sodium-ion, Solid-State Prototype)
• By Form Factor
  • Cylindrical
  • Prismatic
  • Pouch
• By Application
  • Automotive (Passenger Electric Vehicles and Commercial Electric Vehicles)
  • Energy Storage Systems (Utility-Scale and Commercial and Industrial)
  • Industrial Batteries
  • Portable Electronics
  • Others (Medical Devices, Defence, Marine)

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

1. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL)
2. BYD Co. Ltd.
3. CALB Group Co. Ltd.
4. EVE Energy Co. Ltd.
5. Gotion High-Tech Co. Ltd.
6. SVOLT Energy Technology Co. Ltd.
7. Farasis Energy Inc.
8. Sunwoda Electronic Co. Ltd.
9. Guoxuan High-Tech Power Energy Co. Ltd.
10. Tianjin Lishen Battery Joint-Stock Co. Ltd.
11. Hithium Energy Storage Technology Co. Ltd.
12. REPT Battero Energy Co. Ltd.
13. Great Power Energy & Technology Co. Ltd.
14. Narada Power Source Co. Ltd.
15. Tianneng Power International Ltd.
16. Panasonic Energy Co. Ltd.
17. LG Energy Solution Ltd.
18. Samsung SDI Co. Ltd.
19. Tesla Inc. (Shanghai Gigafactory Battery Operations)
20. COSMX Battery Co. Ltd.
21. Microvast Holdings Inc.
22. Ampace Technology Ltd.

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

• 1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Nationwide NEV Mandates Driving Lithium-Ion Demand Surge in Tier-2 & 3 Cities
  • 4.2.2 Grid-Scale Storage Boom Triggered by 30 % Renewable Curtailment Targets
  • 4.2.3 Price Parity of LFP Packs (Below USD 80/kWh) Accelerating Lead-acid Replacement
  • 4.2.4 Vertical Integration by CATL & BYD Reducing Supply-Chain Bottlenecks and Costs
  • 4.2.5 Provincial Recycling Quotas Creating Secondary Raw-Material Stream for New Cells
  • 4.2.6 Preferential VAT Rebate on Domestic Battery Materials Boosting Local Production
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 Imminent Overcapacity Risk from 1.3 TWh Announced Cell Plants Depressing Margins
  • 4.3.2 Regulatory Cap on New Coal-Power for Cathode Processing Limiting Energy Cost Advantage
  • 4.3.3 Critical Mineral Import Volatility amid Indonesia & DRC Export Policy Shifts
  • 4.3.4 Intensifying IP Litigation on Solid-State Electrolyte Patents Delaying Commercialization
• 4.4 Supply-Chain Analysis
• 4.5 Regulatory Outlook
• 4.6 Technological Outlook
• 4.7 Porters Five Forces
  • 4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Buyers
  • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.7.5 Competitive Rivalry
• 4.8 PESTLE Analysis

5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts

• 5.1 By Type
  • 5.1.1 Primary Battery
  • 5.1.2 Secondary Battery
• 5.2 By Technology
  • 5.2.1 Lead-acid Battery
  • 5.2.2 Lithium-ion Battery
  • 5.2.3 Other Technologies (Ni-MH, Zinc-air, Sodium-ion, Solid-State Prototype)
• 5.3 By Form Factor
  • 5.3.1 Cylindrical
  • 5.3.2 Prismatic
  • 5.3.3 Pouch
• 5.4 By Application
  • 5.4.1 Automotive (Passenger Electric Vehicles and Commercial Electric Vehicles)
  • 5.4.2 Energy Storage Systems (Utility-Scale and Commercial and Industrial)
  • 5.4.3 Industrial Batteries
  • 5.4.4 Portable Electronics
  • 5.4.5 Others (Medical Devices, Defence, Marine)

6 Competitive Landscape

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves (M&A, JVs, Funding, PPAs)
• 6.3 Market Share Analysis (Market Rank/Share for key companies)
• 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global-level Overview, Market-level Overview, Core Segments, Financials, Strategic Information, Products & Services, Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited (CATL)
  • 6.4.2 BYD Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.3 CALB Group Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.4 EVE Energy Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.5 Gotion High-Tech Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.6 SVOLT Energy Technology Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.7 Farasis Energy Inc.
  • 6.4.8 Sunwoda Electronic Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.9 Guoxuan High-Tech Power Energy Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.10 Tianjin Lishen Battery Joint-Stock Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.11 Hithium Energy Storage Technology Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.12 REPT Battero Energy Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.13 Great Power Energy & Technology Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.14 Narada Power Source Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.15 Tianneng Power International Ltd.
  • 6.4.16 Panasonic Energy Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.17 LG Energy Solution Ltd.
  • 6.4.18 Samsung SDI Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.19 Tesla Inc. (Shanghai Gigafactory Battery Operations)
  • 6.4.20 COSMX Battery Co. Ltd.
  • 6.4.21 Microvast Holdings Inc.
  • 6.4.22 Ampace Technology Ltd.

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook

• 7.1 White-space & Unmet-Need Assessment