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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
2100741
電動巴士:市場佔有率分析、行業趨勢和統計數據、成長預測(2026-2031 年)Electric Bus - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026 - 2031) |
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根據 Mordor Intelligence 預測,電動巴士市場規模將從 2025 年的 242.2 億美元成長到 2026 年的 287.7 億美元,然後在 2031 年達到 681.1 億美元,2026 年至 2031 年的複合年成長率為 18.81%。

本報告按推進系統(例如,電池驅動電動巴士)、應用領域(例如,城市/公共交通)、電池化學成分(例如,磷酸鐵鋰電池)、總長度(例如,小於9米)、電機結構(例如,永磁同步馬達)、電機輸出功率(小於100千瓦、100-150千瓦、其他)、公里數(小於100/公里)。市場預測以貨幣價值(美元)和銷售(台)兩種形式呈現。
亞洲主要生產基地的規模經濟效應正在顯現,推動電池成本持續下降。分析師預測,在不久的將來,電池成本將進一步降低。如果車輛使用壽命和燃料價格等特定條件得到滿足,即使沒有補貼,電動車的價格也可能與內燃機汽車相媲美。同時,鈉離子電池等新興技術相比傳統的鋰離子電池具有成本優勢,儘管其能量密度略有不足。隨著電池價格的下降,二手電池市場也異常活躍。仍有相當可用容量的舊電池組正被重新利用,改造為固定式能源儲存系統。這一趨勢不僅提高了電池的殘值,也為電動車提供了更具吸引力的租賃方案。
各大城市的零排放法規實際上禁止了柴油車,將車輛更換週期縮短至短短五年,導致大規模採購超過了區域生產能力。相關機構也需承擔重新設計車輛段和重新訓練駕駛人等額外成本,使計畫預算增加15%至20%。由於缺乏低成本資金籌措管道,小規模業者往往被迫退出或合併,導致大規模公共車輛車隊集中度上升。香港和胡志明市等亞洲城市已承諾在2030年實現全面電氣化,這將導致需求同步激增,並給全球供應鏈帶來壓力。合規成本不僅限於車輛,還包括電網升級和員工再培訓,進一步加劇了部署計畫的複雜性。
擴建電動公車隊在車庫的運能通常需要對電力基礎設施進行重大升級,包括增加變壓器容量以及與電力公司密切協調。這些項目可能會因併網延誤和現有場地土地限制而延期,從而增加電動公車市場房地產規劃的複雜性和成本。此外,對先進能源管理系統和電網現代化改造的需求也帶來了更多挑戰。無縫整合和擴充性需要車輛營運商、電力公司和政策制定者之間的密切合作。
截至2025年,純電動公車(BEB)佔據了電動公車市場83.92%的佔有率,但預計到2031年,燃料電池公車將以20.82%的複合年成長率成長,因為城際營運商優先考慮續航里程達到400-500公里且加氫時間少於15分鐘的公車。隨著電池續航里程超過300公里,插電式混合動力汽車的市佔率正在萎縮。純電動公車的成長與鋰離子電池價格的下降、車庫充電設施的普及以及夜間充電優惠費率直接相關。燃料電池公車(FCEB)的成長主要集中在港口和山區,在這些地區,減輕車身重量至關重要,而且現有的氫能基礎設施可以降低資本投資。
預計到2028年,純電動電動車(BEB)將成為都市區的標準配置,而隨著氫燃料成本接近每公斤3-4美元,氫燃料預計將在長途線路上廣泛應用。加州的「先進清潔車隊」法規認可這兩種技術均符合規定,從而協調了監管獎勵。隨著綠氫燃料的普及,氫燃料電池電動車(FCEB)憑藉著快速加氫和更輕的軸重,將在對準點率要求極高的線路上競爭。
預計到2025年,城市公車將佔新增車輛總數的62.37%,而隨著續航里程達300-450公里的電池組日益普及,城際公車服務預計將以19.18%的複合年成長率成長。聯邦政府的大力津貼正在推動這項計劃,校車電動化進程也正在加速。同時,機場擺渡車業者也逐步轉向電動車,以減少在有限營運環境下產生的噪音和排放氣體。
都市區道路在電氣化方面處於領先地位,因為它們可以最大限度地利用走走停停的交通狀況下的能量回收煞車。城際道路也正在加速採用電動車,這得益於電池能量密度的提高和成本的大幅下降,從而減少了對昂貴的公路充電站的依賴。此外,旅遊和企業班車也正在向電動車轉型,以符合永續性目標,並享受大幅降低的維護需求帶來的好處。
由於成本和熱穩定性優勢,磷酸鋰鐵電池組預計在2025年將佔總部署量的59.63%。 NMC/NCA電池的能量密度超過250 Wh/kg,預計也將達到20.28%的複合年成長率。鈦酸鋰電池適用於需要快速充電的都市區環線,而鈉離子電池則主要針對成本要求較高的短程應用。
磷酸鐵鋰電池(LFP)的無鈷設計降低了供應鏈風險,並可在不加速性能劣化的情況下實現完全放電循環。 NMC 和 NCA 架構適用於續航里程超過 450 公里的路線,但需要更強大的溫度控管,導致電池組成本更高。鈉離子電池受鋰價波動的影響較小,但犧牲了續航里程,因此其應用僅限於人口密集的都市區。
到2025年,亞太地區將主導市場,佔全球總出貨量的64.82%。中國大規模引進電動公車,加上印度的國家補貼計劃,正在加速亞洲各地公車隊的電氣化進程。這些措施正在縮小電動公車和柴油公車之間的成本差距,使營運商更容易轉型。同時,日本和韓國在氫能交通領域處於領先地位,已將燃料電池公車納入其國家戰略,以發展氫能基礎設施並推廣更清潔的交通途徑。
在歐洲,受歐盟清潔車輛指令推動零排放城市公車發展,預計將實現19.88%的強勁複合年成長率。德國和法國等國正透過為電動公車提供大量財政獎勵來支持這項轉型。此外,倫敦、巴黎和米蘭等城市也加大力度逐步淘汰柴油車,並設立了低排放氣體區。為了促進國內電池生產,強製在地採購的趨勢正在加速發展,Northvolt和LG能源解決方案等行業領導者正在擴大其超級工廠的產能。
在北美,聯邦政府的補貼和基礎建設措施正在推動這項轉型,尤其是在校車引進方面。然而,由於與電力公司並網的延誤,這一進程受到阻礙。同時,在拉丁美洲,一些城市正在試行「路線即服務」等創新合約模式,以應對財政挑戰。在中東,一些城市正在主要通勤線路上引入電動公車,以配合更廣泛的永續性目標。
According to Mordor Intelligence, the electric bus market size is expected to grow from USD 24.22 billion in 2025 to USD 28.77 billion in 2026 and is forecast to reach USD 68.11 billion by 2031 at an 18.81% CAGR over 2026-2031.

This report is Segmented by Propulsion (Battery Electric Bus, and More), Application (City/Transit, and More), Battery Chemistry (LFP, and More), Length (Below 9m, and More), Motor Architecture (PMSM, and More), Motor Power (Below 100kW, 100-150kW, and More), Range (Below 100km, and More), End Use (Public and Private), and Geography. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD) and Volume (Units).
Major Asian production hubs have achieved economies of scale, leading to a continued decline in battery costs. Analysts predict that these costs will decrease further in the near future, potentially allowing electric vehicles to compete with internal combustion engines on price, even without subsidies, provided certain conditions regarding vehicle lifespan and fuel prices are met. Meanwhile, emerging technologies like sodium-ion batteries offer potential cost benefits, albeit with some trade-offs in energy density when compared to traditional lithium-ion batteries. As battery prices fall, there's a noticeable uptick in second-life battery markets. End-of-life battery packs, still boasting considerable usable capacity, are being repurposed for stationary energy storage. This trend not only bolsters the residual values of these batteries but also paves the way for more attractive leasing terms for electric vehicles.
Zero-emission rules in major cities act as de facto diesel bans, compressing fleet-renewal timelines to as little as five years and triggering large-scale procurements that outpace local manufacturing capacity. Agencies shoulder added expenses for depot redesigns and driver retraining, inflating project budgets by 15-20%. Smaller operators often exit or merge because they lack access to low-cost capital, increasing concentration among large public fleets. Asian cities such as Hong Kong and Ho Chi Minh City pledge full electrification by 2030, creating synchronized demand peaks that strain global supply chains. Compliance costs extend beyond vehicles, encompassing grid upgrades and workforce reskilling, which complicate rollout schedules.
Expanding depot capacity for electric fleets often requires significant upgrades to power infrastructure, including additional transformer capacity and extended coordination with utilities. These projects can be delayed by interconnection queues and land constraints at older sites, which add complexity and cost to real-estate planning in the electric bus market. Furthermore, the need for advanced energy management systems and grid modernization adds another layer of challenges, requiring collaboration between fleet operators, utilities, and policymakers to ensure seamless integration and scalability.
Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:
For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.
Battery-electric buses held an 83.92% Electric Bus Market share in 2025, while fuel-cell models are forecasted to have a 20.82% CAGR through 2031, as intercity operators value a 400-500 km range and sub-15-minute refueling. Plug-in hybrids shrink as battery ranges exceed 300 km. BEB growth ties directly to lithium-ion price drops, depot-charging compatibility, and favorable overnight charging tariffs. FCEB growth clusters around ports and mountainous regions, where weight savings are crucial and existing hydrogen infrastructure reduces capital expenditures.
City fleets will standardize on BEBs by 2028, whereas long-haul corridors adopt hydrogen as costs approach USD 3-4 per kg. California's Advanced Clean Fleets rule recognizes both technologies for compliance, aligning regulatory incentives. Fast refueling and lighter axle loads make FCEBs competitive on time-sensitive routes, provided green hydrogen scales.
City buses accounted for 62.37% of 2025 deployments; however, intercity services are projected to grow at a 19.18% CAGR due to the widening availability of 300-450 km battery packs. With substantial federal grants backing the initiative, school-bus electrification is gaining momentum. Meanwhile, airport shuttle operators are turning to electric vehicles, aiming to reduce noise and emissions in their confined operating environments.
Urban routes lead the charge in electrification, as their stop-and-go traffic optimally harnesses the benefits of regenerative braking. Intercity adoption is on the rise, thanks to advancements in battery energy density and plummeting costs, which lessen the dependence on costly en-route charging stations. Additionally, both tourism and corporate shuttle fleets are transitioning to electric models, aligning with sustainability goals and reaping the benefits of significantly reduced maintenance needs.
LFP packs captured 59.63% of 2025 installations on cost and thermal stability, and NMC/NCA chemistries are expected to see a 20.28% CAGR as density surpasses 250 Wh/kg. Lithium-titanate caters to fast-charge urban loops, while sodium-ion targets cost-sensitive, short-range applications.
LFP's cobalt-free design mitigates supply-chain risk and enables full-depth-of-discharge cycles without accelerated degradation. NMC and NCA architectures serve routes requiring a range of over 450 km but require more robust thermal management, which raises pack expense. Sodium-ion reduces exposure to lithium pricing but sacrifices range capability, constraining it to dense urban runs.
In 2025, the Asia-Pacific region dominated the market, accounting for 64.82% of the total volume. China's extensive fleet of electric buses, coupled with India's national subsidy initiatives, is propelling the electrification of bus fleets across Asia. These initiatives are narrowing the cost disparity between electric and diesel buses, making it easier for operators to transition. At the same time, Japan and South Korea are positioning themselves at the forefront of hydrogen mobility, integrating fuel-cell buses into their national agendas to bolster hydrogen infrastructure and advocate for cleaner transportation.
Europe is on track to achieve a robust 19.88% CAGR, spurred by the EU Clean Vehicles Directive's push for zero-emission city buses. Countries such as Germany and France are backing this transition with substantial financial incentives for electric buses. Furthermore, cities like London, Paris, and Milan are intensifying their efforts to phase out diesel fleets, bolstered by the establishment of low-emission zones. In a bid to boost domestic battery-cell production, local-content mandates are gaining traction, with industry giants like Northvolt and LG Energy Solution ramping up their gigafactory capacities.
In North America, federal grants and infrastructure initiatives are championing the transition, especially within school bus fleets. Yet, progress is hampered by utility interconnection delays. Meanwhile, in Latin America, cities are experimenting with innovative contract models, such as "route-as-a-service," to navigate financial hurdles. In the Middle East, urban centers are integrating electric buses into their central shuttle routes, aligning with broader sustainability goals.