綠色氫能的能源成本－2026 年版

概述

低溫電堆的動態下限為 39.39 kWh/kg。所有銷售的產品都與此基準值進行比較，但很少使用相同的方法進行測量。

三個下限值經常被混淆。即使只考慮熱量產生的慣例（比較低值和高值），標稱值也相差約 18，相當於 10 年的研究成果。煙囪、系統和工廠的邊界所包含的設備並不相同，它們之間有五個不同的效率點。 ISO 22734 標準已過時，其第二部分仍處於草案階段，主要關注電網服務。此外，不同實驗室對同一設備的測試結果也存在 476 mV 的差異。本報告明確了所有資料所依據的邊界、參考值和負載點，或指出來源中未提及之處。

第二部分根據相同的標準對四種技術進行了比較。對於鹼性燃料電池，關於最小負載的同一問題卻得到了五個不同的答案。對於質子交換膜燃料電池（PEM），儘管其電流密度是鹼性燃料電池的四倍，且面臨銥的問題，但美國能源局（DOE）本身的模型顯示，其效率與鹼性燃料電池相比並無持續差異。對於陰離子交換膜燃料電池（AEM），市售硬體的標稱值為51.3 kWh/kg，本報告中僅展示了其劣化曲線；而對於固體氧化物燃料電池，由於蒸氣邊界條件的限制，美國能源部針對同一單元提供了兩組數據，實現了本章說明的126%的效率。

第三部分探討供應端。在受訪的28家製造商中，有13家未揭露任何效率數據。沒有一家公司保證效率，而且現有的保證都是單方面的。在18個月的時間裡，記錄了4起破產和資產減損事件，本部分也描述了每起事件對堆疊保證的影響。

第四部分涵蓋已實際建成的設施。該部分描述了四項資產，其公佈的實際發電量與額定發電量之比可以核實，但官方記錄中沒有任何實測的千瓦時/公斤數據。第五部分論述了資本成本（其走勢與預期相反），並提供了一個敏感度矩陣，展示了在不同的電價和負載率下，哪些條件將占主導地位。第六部分展望至2031年，並在結尾列出了官方記錄中未包含的事項，其中包括一項關於剩餘備用容量將消耗87%的說法。

任何未列出的事項均作為調查結果的一部分進行報告。如果在與相關部門或製造商核實後發現沒有任何資訊公開揭露，則會明確標明並記錄確認資訊來源和日期。未揭露聲明僅限於截至2026年8月31日調查的資訊來源，並非針對全球範圍。

本報告為獨立出版物，並非由任何電解槽製造商、國家主管機關、國際能源總署（IEA）、國際可再生能源署（IRENA）、歐盟聯合研究中心（JRC）、美國能源局或清潔氫能夥伴關係關係組織委託、認可或與其有任何關聯。所有組織和產品名稱僅用於識別目的。

本版本內容

除了由六個部分組成的二十章正文外，該報告還包含一個附錄，其中收錄了製造商提供的證據。測量挑戰包括：測量範圍和來源、動態下限、熱生成慣例、三個邊界、標準中的不足。技術方面，報告涵蓋了鹼性電池、PEM電池、AEM電池和固體氧化物電池，並附有全面的對比表格和未在其他地方發表的部分負載曲線。供應商方面，報告分析了製造商已公佈的資訊、中國市場以及價格與電流密度之間的權衡、性能保證的價值以及供應商的故障記錄。在運行示範數據方面，報告分析了實際已建成的設備以及相對於FID差距的磨損率。經濟性方面，報告分析了資本支出（Capex）以及每公斤千瓦時（kWh/kg）的實際價值。在最尖端科技，報告比較了截至2031年已公佈和已展示的技術，以及公開記錄中缺少的技術。附錄A列出了所有調查過的製造商文件、文件日期、取得日期以及揭露的資訊。

本報告的主要讀者

開發商、投資者、貸款人、電力購買者和工程師：對於需要標準化、可識別和可重複的電解槽效率數據的人。

本報告內容

• 鹼性電解池、PEM電解池、AEM電解池和固體氧化物電解槽的數據已使用統一的標準重新計算。
• 所有 kWh/kg 值均明確標示測量範圍、熱值標準和負載點。
• 對動態下限進行說明，並說明日常生活中常混淆的三個下限。
• 在受訪的 28 家製造商中，有 13 家沒有揭露任何效率數據。
• 性能保證究竟涵蓋哪些內容？為什麼所有產業實務都指向同一個方向？
• 18 個月內四家供應商破產和資產減損的歷史記錄。
• 已建成四項資產，其實際產量與額定產量的比值已公佈。
• 敏感度分析表，顯示哪些條件在哪些電價和負載係數下占主導地位。
• 核實調查結果中報告的缺失資訊及其來源和日期。
• 附錄包含 291 個來源、55 個資料表和製造商的支援文件。
• 這是一項獨立調查，並非由任何製造商、機構或專案委託進行。

目錄

第一部分：測量問題

• 為什麼這兩個效率值很少相同？

第1章 範圍、定義與方法

• 溯源方案，以及三個不包含同一設施的邊界。

第2章動態下限

• 三個常被混淆的下限值，以及為什麼低溫電堆的能耗不能低於 39.39 kWh/kg

第3章：符號問題

• LHV、HHV 以及那 18% 的人，他們的事蹟如同長達十年的研究一樣，頻頻登上新聞頭條。

第4章：邊界問題

• 煙囪、系統、工廠——以及區分它們的五個效率點。

第5章：標準差距

• 撤回 ISO 22734 標準、涵蓋電網服務的第二部分草案以及實驗室間 476mV 的差異

第二部分 技術

• 基於單一基礎的四項技術

第6章 鹼性電池

• 同一個問題有五個不同的答案：價格低廉、耐用、重量輕。

第7章 PEM

• 美國能源部的模型計算表明，鹼性電池和銥電池之間沒有持續的效率差異，電流密度提高了四倍，而銥電池仍然面臨挑戰。

第8章 AEM

• 已公佈的商業硬體值為 51.3 kWh/kg，並且是本報告中唯一的劣化曲線。

第9章固體氧化物

• 對蒸氣邊界的解釋，一個單元的兩個 DOE 行，以及 126% 的效率。

第10章 比較

• 總結表、資本與能源權衡以及部分負載曲線，這些內容尚未有人發表。

第三部分 供應商

• 供應商已公開的訊息，以及他們未公開的資訊。

第11章 製造商揭露的信息

• 在這 28 家公司中，有 13 家沒有揭露任何有關效率的數據。

第12章 中國

• 價格差異、目前密度的權衡、資訊的流通。

第13章 保固

• 沒有哪個廠商能保證效率，而且所有做法都是單向的。

第14章 供應商違約紀錄

• 18 個月內發生四起破產和資產減損事件，以及它們對疊加擔保的影響。

第四部分：行動中的證據

• 建造了什麼，生產了什麼？

第15章：建造了什麼

• 對於額定輸出功率公開的四項資產，任何地方都沒有 kWh/kg 的測量數據。

第16章：自然衰退與最終投資之間的差距

• 過時的取消記錄，以及機構預測一年內超支 150%。

第五部分：經濟學

• 關於能源成本相對於資本成本的價值

第17章 資本投資（Capex）

• 成本與預期不符，以及調整資金來源的邊界比率。

第 18 章：kWh/kg 的值是多少？

• 敏感度矩陣，以及在何種電價和負載係數下哪些項占主導地位。

第六部分：邊境

• 公佈值與實際成果值的比較，以及記錄中未包含的項目。

第19章：前沿，2026-2031年

• 對已公佈的內容進行比較和檢驗，剩餘的 87% 將用於某個特定用途。

第20章：缺失了什麼

• 公共記錄中的空白及其填補方法。

附錄A

• 製造商證明
  • 所有調查的文件，包括其日期、取得日期以及各製造商所揭露的資訊。

OVERVIEW

The thermodynamic floor for a low-temperature stack is 39.39 kWh/kg. Everything sold is measured against it, and almost nothing is measured the same way twice.

Three floors are routinely confused. The heating-value convention alone - lower against higher - moves a headline number by about eighteen per cent, as much as a decade of research. The stack, system and plant boundaries do not enclose the same equipment, and five distinct efficiency points sit between them. ISO 22734 has been withdrawn, its Part 2 is in draft and aimed at grid services, and a 476 mV spread has been measured between laboratories testing the same thing. This report states the boundary, the basis and the load point behind every figure, or states that the source does not.

Part II puts the four technologies on one basis: alkaline and its five different answers to the same question about minimum load; PEM, which shows no persistent efficiency difference from alkaline in the US Department of Energy's own modelling, at four times the current density and with an iridium problem; AEM, with commercial hardware at a published 51.3 kWh/kg and the only degradation curve in the report; and solid oxide, where the steam boundary produces two DOE rows for one machine and an efficiency of 126 per cent that the chapter explains.

Part III is the supply side. Thirteen of the twenty-eight manufacturers surveyed publish no efficiency figure at all. Nobody guarantees an efficiency, and every convention in the guarantees that do exist runs one way. Four insolvencies and impairments in eighteen months are recorded, with what each does to a stack warranty.

Part IV covers what has actually been built: four assets with published output against nameplate, and no measured kWh/kg anywhere in the public record. Part V covers capital cost - which went the wrong way - and the sensitivity grid showing which term dominates under which power price and load factor. Part VI covers the frontier to 2031, including the single claim that would consume 87 per cent of the remaining headroom, and closes with an inventory of what the public record does not contain.

Absences are reported as findings. Where an authority or a manufacturer was checked and found to publish nothing, that is recorded with the source checked and the date. Absence claims are scoped to the sources reviewed as at 31 August 2026; they are not claims about the whole world.

This is an independent publication. It is not commissioned or endorsed by, or affiliated with, any electrolyser manufacturer, any national authority, the International Energy Agency, IRENA, the Joint Research Centre, the US Department of Energy or the Clean Hydrogen Partnership. All organisations and products are named for identification only.

WHAT THIS EDITION COVERS

Twenty chapters in six parts, plus a manufacturer evidence appendix. The measurement problem: scope and provenance, the thermodynamic floor, the heating-value convention, the three boundaries, and the standards vacuum. The technologies: alkaline, PEM, AEM and solid oxide, then the master comparison table and the part-load curve nobody publishes. The suppliers: what manufacturers publish, China and the price-against-current-density trade-off, what a performance guarantee is worth, and the supplier failure record. The evidence from operation: what has been built, and attrition against the FID gap. Economics: capex and what a kWh/kg is actually worth. The frontier: demonstrated against announced to 2031, and what is missing from the public record. Appendix A lists every manufacturer document examined, its date, its retrieval date and what was disclosed.

WHO THIS IS FOR

Developers, investors, lenders, offtakers and engineers who need electrolyser efficiency figures they can compare on one basis, trace to a retrieved source, and reproduce.

WHAT YOU GET

• Alkaline, PEM, AEM and solid oxide restated onto one consistent basis
• Every kWh/kg figure carries its measurement boundary, heating-value basis and load point
• The thermodynamic floor explained, and the three floors that are routinely confused
• 28 manufacturers surveyed - and the thirteen that publish no efficiency figure at all
• What a performance guarantee actually covers, and why every convention runs one way
• A dated record of four supplier insolvencies and impairments in eighteen months
• Four built assets with published output against nameplate
• A sensitivity grid showing which term dominates at which power price and load factor
• Absences reported as findings, with the source checked and the date
• 291 sources, 55 data tables, and a manufacturer evidence appendix
• Independent - not commissioned by any manufacturer, authority or programme

Table of Contents

Part I The Measurement Problem

• Why two efficiency figures are rarely the same quantity.

Chapter 1 Scope, definitions and method

• The provenance scheme, and the three boundaries that do not enclose the same equipment.

Chapter 2 The thermodynamic floor

• Three floors routinely confused, and why a low-temperature stack cannot go below 39.39 kWh/kg.

Chapter 3 The convention problem

• LHV, HHV, and the eighteen per cent that moves a headline as much as a decade of research.

Chapter 4 The boundary problem

• Stack, system, plant - and the five efficiency points that separate them.

Chapter 5 The standards vacuum

• ISO 22734 withdrawn, a draft Part 2 aimed at grid services, and a 476 mV spread between laboratories.

Part II The Technologies

• Four technologies on one basis.

Chapter 6 Alkaline

• Cheap, durable, and five different answers to the same question about minimum load.

Chapter 7 PEM

• No persistent efficiency difference from alkaline in DOE's modelling, four times the current density, and an iridium problem.

Chapter 8 AEM

• Commercial hardware at a published 51.3 kWh/kg, and the only degradation curve in the report.

Chapter 9 Solid oxide

• The steam boundary, two DOE rows for one machine, and 126 per cent efficiency explained.

Chapter 10 The comparison

• The master table, the capital-against-energy trade-off, and the part-load curve nobody publishes.

Part III The Suppliers

• What the supply side discloses, and what it does not.

Chapter 11 What the manufacturers publish

• Thirteen of twenty-eight publish no efficiency figure at all.

Chapter 12 China

• The price gap, the current-density trade-off, and what merely circulates.

Chapter 13 Guarantees

• Nobody guarantees an efficiency, and every convention runs one way.

Chapter 14 The supplier failure record

• Four insolvencies and impairments in eighteen months, and what they do to a stack warranty.

Part IV The Evidence from Operation

• What has been built, and what it produced.

Chapter 15 What has been built

• Four assets with published output against nameplate, and no measured kWh/kg anywhere.

Chapter 16 Attrition and the FID gap

• The dated cancellation record, and a 150 per cent forecast overshoot by one institution in one year.

Part V Economics

• What the energy term is worth against the capital term.

Chapter 17 Capex

• The cost that went the wrong way, and the boundary ratio that reconciles the sources.

Chapter 18 What a kWh/kg is worth

• The sensitivity grid, and which term dominates under which power price and load factor.

Part VI The Frontier

• Demonstrated against announced, and what the record does not contain.

Chapter 19 The frontier, 2026–2031

• Demonstrated against announced, and the 87 per cent of remaining headroom one claim would consume.

Chapter 20 What is missing

• The gaps in the public record, and the instruments that would close them.

APPENDIX A

• Manufacturer evidence
  • Every document examined, its date, its retrieval date, and what each manufacturer disclosed.