全球電動公車和客車市場：成長機會（2030 年）

Global Growth Opportunities in the Electric Transit Bus and Coach Market, 2030

出版日期: 2024年02月21日 | 出版商:

Frost & Sullivan | 英文 116 Pages | 商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內

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簡介目錄

歐洲、北美和印度的工業復甦

排放法規、電池價格下降、低排放區的出現、購買補貼和免稅可能會推動全球電動公車的成長。電動交通巴士的日益普及為替代動力傳動系統巴士的全球採購和供應鋪平了道路。該行業是現有汽車製造商、供應商和希望進入該市場的新參與企業之間強力合作的沃土。到2023年，純電動（BEV）公車將獲得更大的市場佔有率，其次是燃料電池電動公車。與柴油公車相比，電動公車的總擁有成本較低，加上充電基礎設施的發展，將使電動公車成為2024年至2026年間盈利的選擇。

全球電動客車市場規模預計將以12.6%的年複合成長率成長，到2030年將達到16萬輛以上。

歐盟國家的潔淨汽車指令目標可能會推動電動公車的採用，特別是作為大眾交通工具採購的一部分。預計2022年至2025年純電動公車將出現強勁成長。歐洲氫能汽車聯合計劃（JIVE）計劃將加速燃料電池公車在歐盟國家的採用。電力公司和能源巨頭進入充電基礎設施將支持電動車加油基礎設施的成長。

在中國，由於補貼和購買獎勵的取消，純電動公車預計在2022年至2025年期間將出現溫和成長。中國補貼制度的修訂收緊了電動續航里程和能源效率閾值作為最低資格要求。然而，隨著電池價格的下降和充電基礎設施的發展，預計到2030年電動公車將變得普及。此外，中國電動客車OEM製造商不僅透過出口，還透過建立製造和組裝工廠在全球迅速擴張。

ZEBRA（零排放公車快速部署加速器）將在麥德林、聖保羅和墨西哥城首次推出，加速拉丁美洲電動公車的採用。拉丁美洲主要國家製定電動車戰略，推廣大眾交通工具零排放公車，中國OEM建立區域製造基地，進軍拉丁美洲。

減少排放氣體的需求日益成長，特別是在人口稠密的城市，可能需要在城市內客運領域中更多地採用電動公車。儘管面臨來自柴油和天然氣公車的激烈競爭，但從這個意義上說，增加電池容量和積極開發充電基礎設施技術將有所幫助，並可能提高電動動力傳動系統在乘用車領域的採用率。

Emission regulations, battery price drop, the emergence of low emission zones, purchase subsidy, and tax exemptions will drive electric bus growth across the world. The growing adoption of electric transit buses has opened the path for global sourcing and supply of alternate powertrain buses. The industry is fertile ground for strong collaborations among incumbent automakers, suppliers, and new players striving to enter the market. By 2023, battery-electric (BEV) buses will attain a larger market share followed by fuel-cell electric buses. The lower total cost of ownership of electric buses in comparison to diesel buses and the push for developing charging infrastructure will make electric buses a profitable option from 2024 to 2026.

The global electric bus market size will reach more than 160,000 units by 2030 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.6%.

EU Clean Vehicle directive targets for EU countries will boost electric bus adoption, particularly as part of national public transport procurement. BEV buses will experience strong growth from 2022 to 2025. Joint Initiative for Hydrogen Vehicles across Europe (JIVE) projects will encourage fuel cell bus adoption across EU countries. The entry of utility and energy major companies into electric charging infrastructure will boost the growth of fueling infrastructure for electric vehicles.

In China, BEV buses will see moderate growth from 2022 to 2025 due to the elimination of subsidies and purchase incentives. The revised subsidy program in China incorporates stricter thresholds for electric range and energy efficiencies as the minimum requirement for qualification. However, lower battery prices and charging infrastructure will drive higher electric bus adoption toward 2030. In addition, Chinese electric bus OEMs are rapidly expanding globally, with the establishment of manufacturing and assembly plants, in addition to exports.

Zero-emission Bus Rapid-Deployment Accelerator (ZEBRA) will drive electric bus adoption in Latin America with initial kickstarts in Medellin, Sao Paulo, and Mexico City. Major LATAM countries are developing an electromobility strategy promoting zero-emission buses in public transportation, and Chinese OEMs have established regional production bases to tap into LATAM.

The increasing need to reduce emissions, especially in highly populated cities, will require a greater adoption of electric buses in the intra-city passenger transport segment. Growing battery capacities and aggressive development in charging infrastructure technologies will help in that sense, increasing the adoption rate of electric powertrains in the coaches segment, albeit with stiff competition from diesel and natural gas buses.

Strategic Imperatives

Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Electric Bus Industry
Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Growth Environment

Global Bus Market: Regional Split
Notable Regulations and Mandates: A Snapshot
Global Bus Powertrain Outlook
Market Presence of Leading Bus Manufacturers

Study Scope

Electric Bus Market Scope of Analysis
Product and Technology Segmentation
Key Growth Metrics for Global Electric Bus Market
Growth Drivers for Electric Bus Adoption
Growth Restraints for Electric Bus Adoption
Key Forecast Criteria

Growth Opportunity Analysis: Electric Bus Overview

Key Factors Impacting Electrification
Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis
Snapshot of xEV Bus Market by Region in 2030
Electric Bus Market: Regional Split by Technology, 2030
Key Electric Bus Use Cases
Electric Transit Bus Regional Pricing Outlook
Electric Coaches Regional Pricing Outlook

Growth Opportunity Analysis: Electric Bus Market, North America

Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus: North America
Regional Snapshot
Incentives: North America
Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis: North America
Transit Bus Market: Powertrain Forecast, North America
Coaches Market: Powertrain Forecast, North America
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
Key BEV and FCEV OEM Product Portfolio
OEM Motor and Battery Chemistry Mapping: North America
Battery and Fuel Cell Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and NA Regions

Growth Opportunity Analysis: Electric Bus Market, Europe

Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus: Europe
Regional Snapshot
Incentives: Europe
Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis: Europe
Transit Bus Market: Powertrain Forecast, Europe
Coaches Market: Powertrain Forecast, Europe
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
Key BEV OEM Product Portfolio
Key FCEV OEM Product Portfolio
OEM: Motor Type Mapping, Europe
OEM: Battery Chemistry Mapping, Europe
Regional Snapshot: Germany
Regional Snapshot: France
Regional Snapshot: Spain
Regional Snapshot: Italy
Regional Snapshot: United Kingdom
Battery Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and EU Countries
Fuel Cell Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and EU Countries

Growth Opportunity Analysis: Electric Bus Market, China

Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus: China
Regional Snapshot
Incentives: China
Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis: China
Transit Bus Market: Powertrain Forecast, China
Coaches Market: Powertrain Forecast, China
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
Key BEV OEM Product Portfolio
Key FCEV OEM Product Portfolio
Battery Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and Chinese Cities
Fuel Cell Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and Chinese Cities

Growth Opportunity Analysis: Electric Bus Market, India

Key Growth Metrics for Electric Bus: India
Regional Snapshot
Incentives: India-FAME-II
Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis: India
Transit Bus Market: Powertrain Forecast, India
Coach Market: Powertrain Forecast, India
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
Key BEV OEM Product Portfolio
OEM Motor and Battery Chemistry Mapping: India
Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and Indian States

Growth Opportunity Analysis: Electric Bus Market, Latin America

Key Growth Metrics for Overall Bus: LATAM
Regional Snapshot
Incentives: LATAM
Electric Bus Market Scenario Analysis: LATAM
Transit Bus Market: Powertrain Forecast, Latin America
Coaches Market: Powertrain Forecast, Latin America
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms
Key OEM Product Portfolio
OEM Powertrain Motor Type Mapping
OEM Powertrain Battery Type Mapping
Electric Bus Deployment: OEMs and LATAM Countries

Growth Opportunity Universe

Growth Opportunity 1: Moving Toward Cleaner and Zero-emission Transportation through Electrification
Growth Opportunity 2: Expanding Revenue Opportunities for Value Chain Participant Growth
Growth Opportunity 3: Identify and Map the Opportunity Landscape for FCEV Buses Across Segments and Use Cases