從防損到防損偵測：電腦視覺、RFID 和人工智慧重新定義零售損耗

本報告詳細闡述了零售商如何對其防損解決方案進行現代化改造，以更有效地防止損耗，同時應對不斷變化的購物習慣、日益普及的自助服務解決方案以及傳統系統帶來的挑戰。其核心挑戰在於如何在滿足客戶體驗和無縫購物需求的同時，應對每年數十億美元的損失。報告重點介紹了人工智慧和電腦視覺技術的進步，以及 RFID 在零售業的擴展，這些是支援下一代防損解決方案的關鍵技術趨勢。

本報告分析了與防損相關的關鍵策略、技術和營運挑戰。 VDC 對多家防損 (LP) 解決方案供應商進行了深入訪談，並對北美和歐洲的 180 家零售商進行了調查。本報告探討了 RFID、人工智慧、電腦視覺/視訊監控和電子商品防盜系統 (EAS) 等技術的演進和整合情況，以及零售商的投資和績效預期。

本報告探討的關鍵問題：

• 目前零售業的損耗現況如何？零售商應對損耗的有效性如何？從零售商的角度來看，未來兩年他們的投資重​​點是什麼？不同產業（例如服裝、電子產品和食品雜貨）的投資重點有何不同？防損解決方案如何改善顧客的購物體驗？
• 目前領先的和新興的防損技術有哪些？它們的優勢和劣勢是什麼？這些技術如何應用於不同的門市模式和產品類別？防損解決方案除了防損之外還能提供哪些價值？
• 未來兩年零售商的投資重點是什麼？不同零售領域的投資重點有何不同？零售商如何平衡顧客體驗與防損科技投資之間的關係？
• 自助服務的興起如何影響損耗？成功的零售商如何將自助服務和防損措施結合？
• 庫存可見度的提升如何影響零售商的防損策略？零售商如何利用近期在RFID技術方面的投資來提高防損效率？

刊載組織:

摘要整理

在北美和歐洲，零售業的門市損耗和店內攻擊事件發生率仍居高不下。儘管零售決策者已經制定了各種策略來最有效地減少這些損耗事件，但許多投資卻適得其反，嚴重影響了購物體驗。然而，目前的情況是，我們能夠更準確地了解事實。例如，目前正在努力利用日益普及的RFID解決方案作為取證工具，以調查和分析損失模式，並減少內部和外部因素造成的損失。本報告探討了在有組織犯罪日益猖獗、自助服務解決方案不斷擴展以及消費者購物行為不斷變化的背景下，零售業損失的現狀。報告還分析了零售商如何調整策略並優先考慮技術投資，以增強監控能力、消除客戶購物體驗中的障礙，並最終減少損失。

根據VDC的一項調查，2024年零售商的平均損耗率（佔銷售額的百分比）將達到2%，其中便利商店/藥局和食品雜貨店/超市的損耗率尤其高。然而，零售商預測到2025年，平均損耗率將顯著下降至1.7%。考慮到2024年美國零售額約為5.25兆美元，這一降幅相當於利潤增加約158億美元。2025 年的預算平均成長了 6.9%。雖然這一增長很可能是由於對防損技術的投資增加，但多種因素也發揮了作用，包括防損技術體系的演進、購買行為的改變以及政策的調整。

隨著人工智慧和電腦視覺技術的創新、成熟和廣泛應用，防損技術體係正在被重新定義。電子商品防盜系統 (EAS) 與視訊系統的整合也日益普及，將警報與產品和店內位置資訊關聯起來，從而加快事件處理速度。此外，RFID 在服裝和家居用品等行業的日益普及，開啟了新的應用領域，尤其是在即時了解庫存狀態和分析損失模式方面，RFID 可作為資料來源。事實上，超過九成的零售商表示，即時庫存可見度（例如透過 RFID）對於支援其防損策略至關重要或非常重要。

目錄

執行

摘要鑰匙

調查結果

損失預防的演進

• 零售業者所面臨的課題
  • 零售業者的技術開發
  • 損失和庫存的即時視覺化
  • 防止買賣損失的演進

現今零售環境下的防損

• 當前零售商技術與營運發展
• 防損與損失偵測
• 損失檢測作為零售商的關鍵組成部分
• 損失策略：損失資訊和追回
• 損失策略
• 面臨的挑戰零售商

自助服務對防損的影響

• 自助服務門市的採用與損失
• 零售商應對自助服務門市損耗的措施
• 影響門市防損的技術限制

  防損技術概覽

  • 基於視訊和人工智慧的防損解決方案
  • 基於RFID的防損解
  • RFID作為電子產品
  • 監控RFID和自助結帳
  • RFID和RF標籤選項
  • RFID和退貨管理
  • RFID在服飾和其他零售業的應用
  • RFID和RF在非服飾零售業的應用
  • 其他防損技術
    • 人臉辨識
    • Digimark
    • 防損系統設計
      • 以客戶為中心的設計
      • 介入體驗設計
      • 雲和邊緣處理
      • 軟體

    競爭格局與供應商簡介：

    Ai-Fi Amazon Go Axis Communications Checklens Checkpoint Cognitiwe EasyFlow/ScanWatch Edgify Everseen Gatekeeper Systems

    Grabit iRetailCheck Malong Technologies Mojix Nedap RocketBoots SeeChange Sensormatic Retail Solutions

    Signatrix Standard AI SML Group Limited Supersmart Trigo Retail Walmart Zippin

    報告附錄

    使用 Excel 資料集/VDC 的零售商調查

Inside This Report

This report details how retailers are modernizing their loss prevention solutions to more effectively prevent shrink while facing shifting shopping habits, greater adoption of self-service solutions and ongoing challenges with legacy solutions. At the heart of this is finding balance between customer experience and the shopping journey and the need to counter increasing levels of loss that cost retailers billions of dollars in revenue each year. Advances in AI and computer vision technologies and the expanding footprint of RFID in retail are among the key technology trends researched to support next-generation loss prevention solutions.

This in-depth report analyzes key strategic issues, both technological and operational, regarding loss prevention. VDC's research entailed detailed discussions with dozens of LP solution providers, plus a dedicated survey fielded among loss prevention technology decision makers across 180 retailers in North America and Europe. The report discusses ways in which RFID, artificial intelligence, computer vision / video monitoring, electronic article surveillance, and more technologies are advancing and being integrated, and retailers' expectations for investments and results.

What Questions are Addressed?

• What is the state of loss in retail today and how effective are retailers at addressing loss? From the retailer's perspective, what will their investment priorities be in the next two years? How does this differ by retail segment, such as apparel versus electronics versus grocery? In what ways are loss prevention solutions improving customers' shopping experiences?
• What are the leading and emerging loss prevention technologies and the strengths and weaknesses of each? How do these technologies align by store format and merchandise? What do loss prevention solutions do beyond loss prevention?
• From the retailer's perspective, what will their investment priorities be in the next two years? How does this differ by retail segment? How are retailers balancing customer experiences with loss prevention technology investments?
• What is the impact of self-service on shrink and how are successful retailers integrating loss with self- service solutions?
• How are improvements to inventory visibility impacting retailer loss prevention strategies and how are retailers leveraging recent RFID investments to better address loss?

Who Should Read this Report?

• Types of companies: Loss Prevention solution providers, POS hardware and software vendors, retail systems integrators, top tier retailers, retail industry trade associations and standard setters.
• Product Management, Directors of Strategy and Research, Marketing Communications professionals
• Corporate development and merger and acquisition professionals seeking a comprehensive understanding of the landscape of loss prevention
• Strategic Aliance and Channel Development managers

Organizations Covered in this Report:

Executive Summary

Retail shrink and in-store violence levels remain elevated across most store formats throughout North America and Europe. While retail decision maker strategies on how to best address shrink have evolved, many investments have backfired and significantly eroded the shopper experience. What has improved is retailers' ability to more accurately measure events; for example, by leveraging increasingly ubiquitous RFID solutions as a forensics tool to investigate patterns and deter internal and external loss. This research report is designed to measure the state of loss in retail today in the wake of heightened organized crime, expansive self-service solution deployment and shifting shopping habits and assess how retailers are evolving their approach and technology investment priorities to enhance monitoring capabilities, eliminate shopper friction while ultimately reducing shrink. Backed by a dedicated survey conducted among retail loss prevention decision makers across multiple retail categories and in-depth interviews with leading and emerging solution providers, the report addresses the key factors shaping this market moving forward.

According to VDC's research, in 2024 retailers incurred an average of 2% of shrink (as measured as a percentage of retail sales) with convenience/pharmacies and grocery/supermarket the leading retail segments. For 2025, however, retailers are projecting a substantial drop in shrink with average anticipated losses of 1.7%. Considering average US retail sales of $5.25 trillion in 2024, this drop represents a $15.8 billion benefit to retailers. While this is potentially a byproduct of increased loss prevention technology investments - 2025 budgets increased by an average of 6.9% - other contributing factors include the evolving loss prevention technology stack, retailers adapting to changes to shopping habits and policy shifts.

AI and computer vision innovation and advances with more mature solutions and those in the process of scaling are redefining the loss prevention technology stack. EAS and video integrations are becoming more commonplace, tying alarms to product and location to accelerate case resolution. In addition, RFID's scaling footprint in segments like apparel and general merchandise is opening the door to new applications such as its use to provide the definitive inventory ground truth and its utility to investigate patterns. In fact, over nine in ten retailers agreed that real-time inventory visibility (provided by solutions like RFID) was extremely or somewhat important to support loss prevention strategies.

Key Findings:

• Retailers address self-service vulnerability and retrench self-checkout policies. With growing labor cost and availability challenges, retailers are increasingly turning to self-service solutions to support customers. Over 60% of retail research respondents acknowledge that they currently have or plan to implement self-service solutions. However, just over 30% of retailers claim that self-service solutions (such as self-checkout) have had a significant or severe impact on shrink levels. Leading issues with self-checkout solutions include label switching (24.5%) and hiding one item behind another (23.8%). To address self-checkout impacted shrink, retailers are turning to computer vision and AI solutions to better detect missed scans and to visually confirm item identity. Leading retailers are pairing policy (item limits) with vision-assisted exception handling.
• Returns fraud is a major challenge for retailers and in many ways the new battlefield. Approximately 15% of returns are fraudulent (with online returns a greater issue). Thus, omni-channel returns and BORIS/BOPIS workflows becoming an increasingly critical loss prevention consideration.
• Labor shortages accelerating self-service investments; however, limiting retailer loss prevention goals. Almost one in four retailers agree that labor shortages have had a significant and/or a severe impact preventing loss prevention. In fact, retailers cite employee training and awareness programs and customer engagement tactics as among the most effective loss prevention measures. To counter labor challenges, retailers have turned to increased loss prevention technology investments and re- focusing staff at higher rick times and locations.
• Leading loss contributors are varied, requiring a multi-faceted approach by retailers to address. The top three contributors to inventory shrink include administrative/process errors (23.0%), opportunistic shoplifting (21.7%) and employee theft (20.4%). It is noteworthy that organized retail crime is not a "top three" rated contributor.
• RFID's retail value proposition continues to evolve and is becoming the source of truth supporting monitoring and loss detection solutions. Inventory visibility and accuracy remain a key challenge for retailers with more than three in ten retailers claiming moderately accurate, slightly accurate or inaccurate inventory visibility. RFID has become the de facto technology retailers turn to for greater (real time) in-store inventory visibility and over nine in ten agree that there is strong value integrating RFID inventory management solutions with loss prevention platforms.

Table of Contents

Executive

Summary Key

Findings

The Evolution of Loss Prevention

• Challenges Faced by Retailers
  • Retailers' Technology Developments
  • Real-Time Visibility of Losses and Inventory
  • The Evolution of Buying and Selling Loss Prevention

Loss Prevention in the Current Retail Environment

• Current Retailer Technology and Operational Developments
• Loss Prevention versus Loss Detection
• Loss Detection as a Critical Component of Retailers'
• Loss Strategies Loss Intelligence and Recovery
• Loss Strategies
• Challenges Faced by Retailers

The Impact of Self-Service on Loss Prevention

• SCO Implementation and Loss
• Retailers' Countermeasures to SCO Shrink
• Technical Limitations Impacting LP for SCO

The Current Landscape of Loss Prevention Technologies

• Video- and Artificial Intelligence-Based Loss Prevention Solutions
• RFID-Based Loss Prevention Solutions
  • RFID as Electronic Article
  • Surveillance RFID and Self-Checkout
  • RFID and RF Tag Options
  • RFID and Returns Management
  • RFID for Apparel and Other Retail Segments
  • RFID and RF for Retail Segments other than Apparel
• Additional LP Technologies
  • Facial recognition
  • Digimarc
• LP System Design
  • Design for Customer
  • Experience Design for Intervention
  • Cloud versus Edge Processing
  • Software

Competitive Landscape and Vendor Profiles:

Report Exhibits

• Exhibit 1: The Cost of Loss: Loss as a Percent of Retail Sales
• Exhibit 2: Retailer Investment Priorities for Loss Prevention
• Exhibit 3: How Will Retailers Change Their Loss Prevention Strategies?
• Exhibit 4: The Importance of Real-time Inventory Visibility
• Exhibit 5: Current Inventory Visibility
• Exhibit 6: Largest Sources of Loss
• Exhibit 7: The Impact of Labor Shortages on Loss Prevention
• Exhibit 8: 2024 Budget Allocations for Loss Prevention Technologies
• Exhibit 9: 2025 Changes to Budget Allocations for Loss Prevention
• Exhibit 10: RFID Reader Form Factors and Locations
• Exhibit 11: Self-Checkout Implementation and Loss
• Exhibit 12: Current Countermeasures to SCO Shrink
• Exhibit 13: Effectiveness of Loss Prevention Measures
• Exhibit 14: Retailer Reasons for Adopting RFID
• Exhibit 15: The Value of Integrating RFID with Loss Prevention
• Exhibit 16: The Benefits of Integrating RFID with Loss Prevention Solutions
• Exhibit 17: Integration of RFID with Electronic Article Surveillance
• Exhibit 18: The Impact of Loss Prevention on Customers' Experiences

Excel Dataset Exhibits / VDC Survey of Retailers

Responses to the following survey questions, cross-tabulated by 7 retail segments (apparel, convenience, department, electronics, grocery, general merchandise and specialty:

• 1. On a scale of 1 (Not a priority) to 5 (Critical priority), how would you rate the priority of investing in each of the following loss prevention technologies for your organization in the next 1-2 years?
• 2. Which of the following loss prevention solutions have you already implemented, and which do you plan to implement in your stores?
• 3. How effective have the following loss prevention measures been for your organization in reducing theft and shrink? (Rate each on a 5-point scale: 1 = Not effective, 5 = Very effective, or mark "Not used" if not applicable.)
• 4. How effective is your organization at addressing retail loss/shrink?
• 5. Looking ahead, do you anticipate making any significant changes to your loss prevention strategy in the next 1-2 years? (multiselect)
• 6. To what extent have labor shortages or staffing constraints affected your ability to prevent losses in stores?
• 7. Which approaches are you using to maintain loss prevention coverage despite staffing shortages? (multiselect)
• 8. What impact does your organization's LP strategy have on customer experience/convenience?
• 9. Approximately what percent of retail inventory was lost to shrink in 2024 (measured as a percent of retail sales)?
• 10. Approximately what percent of retail inventory do you estimate will be lost to shrink in 2025 (measured as a percent of retail sales)?
• 11. Which of the following do you perceive as the largest contributors to shrink (losses) in your organization over the past year? (multiselect)
• 12. Considering your organization's overall retail technology budget, what share was attributed to loss prevention technology investments in 2024?
• 13. Relative to 2024, is your organization's LP budget increasing, decreasing or staying the same in 2025?
• 14. Does your organization currently support self-checkout solutions (such as SCO lanes, personal shopping devices, smart carts, etc.)?
• 15. How have self-checkout solutions affected your store's shrink levels and theft incidents?
• 16. What specific loss prevention challenges have you encountered with self-checkout or other self-service models? (multiselect)
• 17. How is your organization addressing self-checkout loss/shrink issues? (multiselect)
• 18. How important is real-time inventory visibility and accuracy to support your LP strategies?
• 19. How would you describe your organization's current in-store inventory visibility?
• 20. Does your organization currently use item-level RFID solutions to support greater in-store inventory visibility?
• 21. What are your organization's primary RFID investment drivers? (multiselect)
• 22. Do you see value in integrating RFID inventory management solutions with LP platforms to provide greater visibility into shrink and theft events?
• 23. Is your organization currently leveraging RFID investments/solutions to support LP strategies?
• 24. How/where is RFID tagged merchandise currently being read and how do you plan to read RFID tagged merchandise currently? (multiselect)
• 25. How/where is RFID tagged merchandise currently being read and how do you plan to read RFID tagged merchandise over the next 24 months? (multiselect)
• 26. What are the leading benefits of combining RFID-enabled inventory visibility with LP solutions? (multiselect)
• 27. What are your views on RFID relative to EAS (electronic article surveillance) solutions? (multiselect)