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市場調查報告書
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1965306

關節型機器人市場 - 全球產業規模、佔有率、趨勢、機會、預測（按有效載荷、功能、產業、地區和競爭格局分類），2021-2031年

Articulated Robot Market - Global Industry Size, Share, Trends, Opportunity, and Forecast, By Payload, By Function, By Industry, By Region & Competition, 2021-2031F
出版日期: | 出版商: TechSci Research | 英文 185 Pages | 商品交期: 2-3個工作天內

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簡介目錄

全球關節機器人市場預計將從 2025 年的 271.8 億美元成長到 2031 年的 548.7 億美元，複合年成長率達到 12.42%。

關節型機器人是一種工業機械系統，其特點是擁有旋轉關節，能夠模擬人臂的靈活性和運動範圍。這些機器對現代製造業至關重要，其主要驅動力源自於汽車和電子產業對高精度生產的需求，以及解決全球勞動力短缺問題的緊急應變需求。推動製造業回流以穩定供應鏈的策略性舉措進一步增強了這一發展勢頭。為了支持這一強勁的需求，國際機器人聯合會 (IFR) 報告稱，到 2024 年，全球整體將部署約 542,000 台工業機器人。這表明自動化基礎設施在維持營運韌性和促進工業成長方面發揮關鍵作用。

市場概覽
預測期 2027-2031
市場規模：2025年 271.8億美元
市場規模：2031年 548.7億美元
複合年成長率：2026-2031年 12.42%
成長最快的細分市場 16.01–60.00 公斤
最大的市場 亞太地區

儘管成長勢頭強勁，但由於採用這些設備需要大量的資本投入，市場仍面臨許多障礙。購買、整合和維護這些先進設備的高昂初始成本構成了一項重大的財務障礙，尤其對於中小企業而言更是如此。因此，這種經濟限制限制了預算有限的企業獲得關節型機器人，並且仍然是阻礙市場向多元化工業應用領域擴張的一大挑戰。

市場促進因素

汽車製造業需求的激增是推動關節型機器人市場發展的主要動力。這主要源自於全球向電動車的轉型以及組裝的現代化。製造商正積極部署高負載容量和焊接機器人來處理輕型底盤零件和複雜的電池組，並且需要快速升級自動化系統以確保供應鏈的韌性。這種產業特有的需求成長也反映在採購趨勢中。根據自動化促進協會 (AAA) 2025 年 5 月發布的《北美工業機器人銷售趨勢》報告，汽車原始設備製造商 (OEM) 在 2025 年第一季訂購了 3,668 台機器人。這項大規模投資凸顯了汽車產業對關節型機器人系統的高度依賴，以維持生產速度並滿足不斷提高的車輛安全性和效率標準。

同時，由於微型元件和印刷電路基板組裝對極高精度的需求，電氣和電子產業的擴張也推動了市場成長。隨著設備變得更小、更複雜，配備先進感測器的關節型機器人對於完成超越人類靈巧性和一致性的任務至關重要。根據國際機器人聯合會（IFR）於2025年7月發布的《2025年世界機器人》初步結果，2024年日本電氣和電子產業將引進約14,000台工業機器人，繼續保持其作為主要應用領域的地位。為了滿足全球日益成長的自動化需求，製造業生產正在迅速擴張。根據國家統計局數據顯示，2025年1月至9月，中國共生產了595,000台工業機器人，這反映了支撐該市場的龐大工業基礎設施。

市場挑戰

引進和整合關節型機器人所需的巨額資本投入是限制市場擴張的主要阻礙因素。先進的機器人系統不僅需要高昂的初始購買成本，還需要持續投入資金用於程式設計、安全整合和專業維護。對於中小企業而言，這種財務負擔尤其沉重，因為它們往往缺乏足夠的流動資金來承擔漫長的投資回收期。因此，許多小規模製造商被迫推遲或放棄自動化計劃，市場佔有率集中在少數大型工業集團手中，而對成本敏感的行業的採用率則停滯不前。

這種經濟摩擦直接影響市場表現指標，並且往往抑制關鍵產業的需求。例如，高昂的借貸成本和緊張的資本預算顯然正在減緩關鍵地區的採購活動。根據自動化促進協會（Association for Advancing Automation）預測，2024年北美地區的機器人訂單總量幾乎停滯不前，僅年增0.5%。這種微弱的成長凸顯了金融壁壘如何阻礙發展勢頭，以及出貨量如何無法滿足製造商的理論營運需求。

市場趨勢

將生成式人工智慧與自然語言程式設計相結合，從根本上改變了關節機器人的可用性和可訪問性。這項技術使操作人員能夠透過對話提示發出指令並產生複雜的程式碼結構，從而顯著降低了技術准入門檻，並緩解了熟練程式設計師短缺的問題。這種從客製化編碼到直覺對話的轉變，正在迅速推動資本向先進軟體解決方案的配置。根據羅克韋爾自動化公司於2025年6月發布的第十份年度智慧製造情勢報告，投資於生成式和因果推理人工智慧的企業數量同比成長12%，這表明該技術正從實驗性試點階段向可擴展的工廠部署階段發生決定性轉變。

同時，高負載容量、工業級協作機器人的研發正穩步推進，不斷拓展無圍欄自動化的應用範圍。與早期只能執行輕型任務的協作機器人不同，這些性能強勁的系統擁有足夠的扭矩和臂展，能夠在人類可以靠近的環境中執行諸如碼垛和機器操作等重型任務，同時確保安全。這種將工業級動力與協作機器人的柔軟性相結合的演進，顯著加速了市場滲透。根據2025年8月發布的《2025年上半年機器人產業報告》，2025年第二季度，協作機器人佔北美機器人訂單總量的23.7%。

目錄

第1章概述

第2章：調查方法

第3章執行摘要

第4章：客戶心聲

第5章：全球關節機器人市場展望

  • 市場規模及預測
    • 按金額
  • 市佔率及預測
    • 負載容量（16.00 公斤或以下，16.01-60.00 公斤）
    • 依功能（搬運、焊接、點膠、組裝）
    • 按行業分類（汽車、電氣和電子、金屬和機械、食品和飲料）
    • 按地區
    • 按公司（2025 年）
  • 市場地圖

第6章：北美關節機器人市場展望

  • 市場規模及預測
  • 市佔率及預測
  • 北美洲：國別分析
    • 美國
    • 加拿大
    • 墨西哥

第7章：歐洲關節機器人市場展望

  • 市場規模及預測
  • 市佔率及預測
  • 歐洲：國別分析
    • 德國
    • 法國
    • 英國
    • 義大利
    • 西班牙

第8章：亞太地區關節型機器人市場展望

  • 市場規模及預測
  • 市佔率及預測
  • 亞太地區：國別分析
    • 中國
    • 印度
    • 日本
    • 韓國
    • 澳洲

第9章：中東和非洲關節型機器人市場展望

  • 市場規模及預測
  • 市佔率及預測
  • 中東與非洲：國別分析
    • 沙烏地阿拉伯
    • 阿拉伯聯合大公國
    • 南非

第10章：南美關節機器人市場展望

  • 市場規模及預測
  • 市佔率及預測
  • 南美洲：國別分析
    • 巴西
    • 哥倫比亞
    • 阿根廷

第11章 市場動態

  • 促進因素
  • 任務

第12章 市場趨勢與發展

  • 併購
  • 產品發布
  • 近期趨勢

第13章：全球關節機器人市場：SWOT分析

第14章：波特五力分析

  • 產業競爭
  • 新進入者的潛力
  • 供應商的議價能力
  • 顧客權力
  • 替代品的威脅

第15章 競爭格局

  • ABB Ltd.
  • FANUC Corporation
  • KUKA Aktiengesellschaft
  • Yaskawa Electric Corporation
  • Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd.
  • DENSO Corporation
  • Seiko Epson Corporation
  • Mitsubishi Electric Corporation

第16章 策略建議

第17章：關於研究公司及免責聲明

簡介目錄
Product Code: 19632

The Global Articulated Robot Market is projected to expand from USD 27.18 Billion in 2025 to USD 54.87 Billion by 2031, achieving a CAGR of 12.42%. Articulated robots are industrial mechanical systems defined by rotary joints that emulate the versatility and range of motion of a human arm. These machines are essential to modern manufacturing, driven primarily by the urgent need to address global labor shortages and the requirement for high-precision production within the automotive and electronics sectors. This momentum is further bolstered by strategic initiatives to reshore manufacturing operations for supply chain stability. Highlighting this strong demand, the International Federation of Robotics reported that approximately 542,000 industrial robots were installed globally in 2024, demonstrating the critical role automation infrastructure plays in sustaining operational resilience and industrial growth.

Market Overview
Forecast Period2027-2031
Market Size 2025USD 27.18 Billion
Market Size 2031USD 54.87 Billion
CAGR 2026-203112.42%
Fastest Growing Segment16.01-60.00 kg
Largest MarketAsia Pacific

Despite this positive trajectory, the market faces a significant obstacle due to the substantial capital expenditure needed for deployment. The high initial costs associated with purchasing, integrating, and maintaining these advanced units create a formidable financial barrier, particularly for small and medium enterprises. Consequently, this economic constraint restricts the accessibility of articulated robotics for budget-conscious organizations and remains a primary challenge that could hinder the broader expansion of the market into diverse industrial applications.

Market Driver

The surge in demand from the automotive manufacturing sector acts as a primary catalyst for the articulated robot market, largely fueled by the global transition to electric vehicles and the modernization of assembly lines. Manufacturers are aggressively integrating high-payload and welding robots to handle lightweight chassis components and complex battery packs, requiring rapid automation upgrades to ensure supply chain resilience. This sector-specific intensity is evident in procurement trends; according to the Association for Advancing Automation's 'Industrial Robot Sales in North America' report from May 2025, automotive OEMs ordered 3,668 units in the first quarter of 2025. This significant investment underscores the critical reliance on articulated systems to maintain production velocity and adhere to evolving vehicular safety and efficiency standards.

Simultaneously, the expansion of the electrical and electronics industry propels market growth, driven by the need for extreme precision in assembling microcomponents and printed circuit boards. As devices become smaller and more complex, articulated robots equipped with advanced sensors are essential for tasks that exceed human dexterity and consistency. According to the International Federation of Robotics' 'World Robotics 2025' preliminary results released in July 2025, the electrical and electronics sector in Japan installed approximately 14,000 industrial robots in 2024, maintaining its status as a leading adoption vertical. To satisfy this escalating global appetite for automation, manufacturing output is scaling rapidly; according to the National Bureau of Statistics, China produced 595,000 industrial robots in the first nine months of 2025 alone, reflecting the massive industrial infrastructure supporting this market.

Market Challenge

The substantial capital expenditure required for the acquisition and integration of articulated robots serves as a formidable restraint on market expansion. Advanced robotic systems necessitate not only significant upfront purchasing costs but also considerable ongoing investments in programming, safety integration, and specialized maintenance. This financial burden is particularly acute for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which often lack the liquidity to absorb long return-on-investment periods. Consequently, many smaller manufacturers are forced to defer or abandon automation initiatives, effectively concentrating market share within a limited circle of large-scale industrial conglomerates and stalling widespread adoption across cost-sensitive sectors.

This economic friction directly impacts market performance metrics, often neutralizing the demand from key industries. For instance, high borrowing costs and tight capital budgets have visibly slowed procurement activities in major regions. According to the Association for Advancing Automation, in 2024, total robot orders in North America remained virtually stagnant, recording a marginal increase of only 0.5% in units compared to the previous year. This negligible growth underscores how financial barriers can stifle momentum, preventing shipment volumes from aligning with the theoretical operational needs of the manufacturing industry.

Market Trends

The integration of Generative AI for natural language programming is fundamentally altering the usability and accessibility of articulated robots. By enabling operators to issue commands and generate complex code structures through conversational prompts, this technology dramatically lowers the technical barrier to entry and mitigates the prevailing shortage of skilled programmers. This shift from proprietary coding to intuitive interaction is rapidly accelerating capital allocation towards advanced software solutions; according to Rockwell Automation's '10th Annual State of Smart Manufacturing Report' from June 2025, organizations investing in generative and causal AI increased 12% year-over-year, signaling a decisive move from experimental pilots to scalable factory deployment.

Simultaneously, the development of high-payload and industrial-grade collaborative robots is expanding the operational envelope of fenceless automation. Unlike early cobots restricted to light assembly, these robust systems now possess the torque and reach necessary for heavy-duty tasks such as palletizing and machine tending while maintaining safety standards that allow for human proximity. This evolution has successfully merged industrial-grade power with collaborative flexibility, driving significant market penetration; according to the Association for Advancing Automation's 'First Half 2025 Robotics Industry' report from August 2025, collaborative robots accounted for 23.7% of all robot units ordered in North America during the second quarter of 2025.

Key Market Players

  • ABB Ltd.
  • FANUC Corporation
  • KUKA Aktiengesellschaft
  • Yaskawa Electric Corporation
  • Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd.
  • DENSO Corporation
  • Seiko Epson Corporation
  • Mitsubishi Electric Corporation

Report Scope

In this report, the Global Articulated Robot Market has been segmented into the following categories, in addition to the industry trends which have also been detailed below:

Articulated Robot Market, By Payload

  • Up to 16.00 kg
  • 16.01-60.00 kg

Articulated Robot Market, By Function

  • Handling
  • Welding
  • Dispensing
  • Assembly

Articulated Robot Market, By Industry

  • Automotive
  • Electrical & Electronics
  • Metal & Machinery
  • Food & Beverages

Articulated Robot Market, By Region

  • North America
    • United States
    • Canada
    • Mexico
  • Europe
    • France
    • United Kingdom
    • Italy
    • Germany
    • Spain
  • Asia Pacific
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • Australia
    • South Korea
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Colombia
  • Middle East & Africa
    • South Africa
    • Saudi Arabia
    • UAE

Competitive Landscape

Company Profiles: Detailed analysis of the major companies present in the Global Articulated Robot Market.

Available Customizations:

Global Articulated Robot Market report with the given market data, TechSci Research offers customizations according to a company's specific needs. The following customization options are available for the report:

Company Information

  • Detailed analysis and profiling of additional market players (up to five).

Table of Contents

1. Product Overview

  • 1.1. Market Definition
  • 1.2. Scope of the Market
    • 1.2.1. Markets Covered
    • 1.2.2. Years Considered for Study
    • 1.2.3. Key Market Segmentations

2. Research Methodology

  • 2.1. Objective of the Study
  • 2.2. Baseline Methodology
  • 2.3. Key Industry Partners
  • 2.4. Major Association and Secondary Sources
  • 2.5. Forecasting Methodology
  • 2.6. Data Triangulation & Validation
  • 2.7. Assumptions and Limitations

3. Executive Summary

  • 3.1. Overview of the Market
  • 3.2. Overview of Key Market Segmentations
  • 3.3. Overview of Key Market Players
  • 3.4. Overview of Key Regions/Countries
  • 3.5. Overview of Market Drivers, Challenges, Trends

4. Voice of Customer

5. Global Articulated Robot Market Outlook

  • 5.1. Market Size & Forecast
    • 5.1.1. By Value
  • 5.2. Market Share & Forecast
    • 5.2.1. By Payload (Up to 16.00 kg, 16.01-60.00 kg)
    • 5.2.2. By Function (Handling, Welding, Dispensing, Assembly)
    • 5.2.3. By Industry (Automotive, Electrical & Electronics, Metal & Machinery, Food & Beverages)
    • 5.2.4. By Region
    • 5.2.5. By Company (2025)
  • 5.3. Market Map

6. North America Articulated Robot Market Outlook

  • 6.1. Market Size & Forecast
    • 6.1.1. By Value
  • 6.2. Market Share & Forecast
    • 6.2.1. By Payload
    • 6.2.2. By Function
    • 6.2.3. By Industry
    • 6.2.4. By Country
  • 6.3. North America: Country Analysis
    • 6.3.1. United States Articulated Robot Market Outlook
      • 6.3.1.1. Market Size & Forecast
        • 6.3.1.1.1. By Value
      • 6.3.1.2. Market Share & Forecast
        • 6.3.1.2.1. By Payload
        • 6.3.1.2.2. By Function
        • 6.3.1.2.3. By Industry
    • 6.3.2. Canada Articulated Robot Market Outlook
      • 6.3.2.1. Market Size & Forecast
        • 6.3.2.1.1. By Value
      • 6.3.2.2. Market Share & Forecast
        • 6.3.2.2.1. By Payload
        • 6.3.2.2.2. By Function
        • 6.3.2.2.3. By Industry
    • 6.3.3. Mexico Articulated Robot Market Outlook
      • 6.3.3.1. Market Size & Forecast
        • 6.3.3.1.1. By Value
      • 6.3.3.2. Market Share & Forecast
        • 6.3.3.2.1. By Payload
        • 6.3.3.2.2. By Function
        • 6.3.3.2.3. By Industry

7. Europe Articulated Robot Market Outlook

  • 7.1. Market Size & Forecast
    • 7.1.1. By Value
  • 7.2. Market Share & Forecast
    • 7.2.1. By Payload
    • 7.2.2. By Function
    • 7.2.3. By Industry
    • 7.2.4. By Country
  • 7.3. Europe: Country Analysis
    • 7.3.1. Germany Articulated Robot Market Outlook
      • 7.3.1.1. Market Size & Forecast
        • 7.3.1.1.1. By Value
      • 7.3.1.2. Market Share & Forecast
        • 7.3.1.2.1. By Payload
        • 7.3.1.2.2. By Function
        • 7.3.1.2.3. By Industry
    • 7.3.2. France Articulated Robot Market Outlook
      • 7.3.2.1. Market Size & Forecast
        • 7.3.2.1.1. By Value
      • 7.3.2.2. Market Share & Forecast
        • 7.3.2.2.1. By Payload
        • 7.3.2.2.2. By Function
        • 7.3.2.2.3. By Industry
    • 7.3.3. United Kingdom Articulated Robot Market Outlook
      • 7.3.3.1. Market Size & Forecast
        • 7.3.3.1.1. By Value
      • 7.3.3.2. Market Share & Forecast
        • 7.3.3.2.1. By Payload
        • 7.3.3.2.2. By Function
        • 7.3.3.2.3. By Industry
    • 7.3.4. Italy Articulated Robot Market Outlook
      • 7.3.4.1. Market Size & Forecast
        • 7.3.4.1.1. By Value
      • 7.3.4.2. Market Share & Forecast
        • 7.3.4.2.1. By Payload
        • 7.3.4.2.2. By Function
        • 7.3.4.2.3. By Industry
    • 7.3.5. Spain Articulated Robot Market Outlook
      • 7.3.5.1. Market Size & Forecast
        • 7.3.5.1.1. By Value
      • 7.3.5.2. Market Share & Forecast
        • 7.3.5.2.1. By Payload
        • 7.3.5.2.2. By Function
        • 7.3.5.2.3. By Industry

8. Asia Pacific Articulated Robot Market Outlook

  • 8.1. Market Size & Forecast
    • 8.1.1. By Value
  • 8.2. Market Share & Forecast
    • 8.2.1. By Payload
    • 8.2.2. By Function
    • 8.2.3. By Industry
    • 8.2.4. By Country
  • 8.3. Asia Pacific: Country Analysis
    • 8.3.1. China Articulated Robot Market Outlook
      • 8.3.1.1. Market Size & Forecast
        • 8.3.1.1.1. By Value
      • 8.3.1.2. Market Share & Forecast
        • 8.3.1.2.1. By Payload
        • 8.3.1.2.2. By Function
        • 8.3.1.2.3. By Industry
    • 8.3.2. India Articulated Robot Market Outlook
      • 8.3.2.1. Market Size & Forecast
        • 8.3.2.1.1. By Value
      • 8.3.2.2. Market Share & Forecast
        • 8.3.2.2.1. By Payload
        • 8.3.2.2.2. By Function
        • 8.3.2.2.3. By Industry
    • 8.3.3. Japan Articulated Robot Market Outlook
      • 8.3.3.1. Market Size & Forecast
        • 8.3.3.1.1. By Value
      • 8.3.3.2. Market Share & Forecast
        • 8.3.3.2.1. By Payload
        • 8.3.3.2.2. By Function
        • 8.3.3.2.3. By Industry
    • 8.3.4. South Korea Articulated Robot Market Outlook
      • 8.3.4.1. Market Size & Forecast
        • 8.3.4.1.1. By Value
      • 8.3.4.2. Market Share & Forecast
        • 8.3.4.2.1. By Payload
        • 8.3.4.2.2. By Function
        • 8.3.4.2.3. By Industry
    • 8.3.5. Australia Articulated Robot Market Outlook
      • 8.3.5.1. Market Size & Forecast
        • 8.3.5.1.1. By Value
      • 8.3.5.2. Market Share & Forecast
        • 8.3.5.2.1. By Payload
        • 8.3.5.2.2. By Function
        • 8.3.5.2.3. By Industry

9. Middle East & Africa Articulated Robot Market Outlook

  • 9.1. Market Size & Forecast
    • 9.1.1. By Value
  • 9.2. Market Share & Forecast
    • 9.2.1. By Payload
    • 9.2.2. By Function
    • 9.2.3. By Industry
    • 9.2.4. By Country
  • 9.3. Middle East & Africa: Country Analysis
    • 9.3.1. Saudi Arabia Articulated Robot Market Outlook
      • 9.3.1.1. Market Size & Forecast
        • 9.3.1.1.1. By Value
      • 9.3.1.2. Market Share & Forecast
        • 9.3.1.2.1. By Payload
        • 9.3.1.2.2. By Function
        • 9.3.1.2.3. By Industry
    • 9.3.2. UAE Articulated Robot Market Outlook
      • 9.3.2.1. Market Size & Forecast
        • 9.3.2.1.1. By Value
      • 9.3.2.2. Market Share & Forecast
        • 9.3.2.2.1. By Payload
        • 9.3.2.2.2. By Function
        • 9.3.2.2.3. By Industry
    • 9.3.3. South Africa Articulated Robot Market Outlook
      • 9.3.3.1. Market Size & Forecast
        • 9.3.3.1.1. By Value
      • 9.3.3.2. Market Share & Forecast
        • 9.3.3.2.1. By Payload
        • 9.3.3.2.2. By Function
        • 9.3.3.2.3. By Industry

10. South America Articulated Robot Market Outlook

  • 10.1. Market Size & Forecast
    • 10.1.1. By Value
  • 10.2. Market Share & Forecast
    • 10.2.1. By Payload
    • 10.2.2. By Function
    • 10.2.3. By Industry
    • 10.2.4. By Country
  • 10.3. South America: Country Analysis
    • 10.3.1. Brazil Articulated Robot Market Outlook
      • 10.3.1.1. Market Size & Forecast
        • 10.3.1.1.1. By Value
      • 10.3.1.2. Market Share & Forecast
        • 10.3.1.2.1. By Payload
        • 10.3.1.2.2. By Function
        • 10.3.1.2.3. By Industry
    • 10.3.2. Colombia Articulated Robot Market Outlook
      • 10.3.2.1. Market Size & Forecast
        • 10.3.2.1.1. By Value
      • 10.3.2.2. Market Share & Forecast
        • 10.3.2.2.1. By Payload
        • 10.3.2.2.2. By Function
        • 10.3.2.2.3. By Industry
    • 10.3.3. Argentina Articulated Robot Market Outlook
      • 10.3.3.1. Market Size & Forecast
        • 10.3.3.1.1. By Value
      • 10.3.3.2. Market Share & Forecast
        • 10.3.3.2.1. By Payload
        • 10.3.3.2.2. By Function
        • 10.3.3.2.3. By Industry

11. Market Dynamics

  • 11.1. Drivers
  • 11.2. Challenges

12. Market Trends & Developments

  • 12.1. Merger & Acquisition (If Any)
  • 12.2. Product Launches (If Any)
  • 12.3. Recent Developments

13. Global Articulated Robot Market: SWOT Analysis

14. Porter's Five Forces Analysis

  • 14.1. Competition in the Industry
  • 14.2. Potential of New Entrants
  • 14.3. Power of Suppliers
  • 14.4. Power of Customers
  • 14.5. Threat of Substitute Products

15. Competitive Landscape

  • 15.1. ABB Ltd.
    • 15.1.1. Business Overview
    • 15.1.2. Products & Services
    • 15.1.3. Recent Developments
    • 15.1.4. Key Personnel
    • 15.1.5. SWOT Analysis
  • 15.2. FANUC Corporation
  • 15.3. KUKA Aktiengesellschaft
  • 15.4. Yaskawa Electric Corporation
  • 15.5. Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd.
  • 15.6. DENSO Corporation
  • 15.7. Seiko Epson Corporation
  • 15.8. Mitsubishi Electric Corporation

16. Strategic Recommendations

17. About Us & Disclaimer