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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1943616
流化催化裂解市場-全球產業規模、佔有率、趨勢、機會及預測(依產品類型、技術組合、最終用戶、地區及競爭格局分類,2021-2031年)Fluid Catalytic Cracking Market - Global Industry Size, Share, Trends, Opportunity, and Forecast, Segmented By Product Type, By Technical Configuration, By End User, By Region & Competition, 2021-2031F |
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全球流體化媒裂(FCC) 市場預計將從 2025 年的 76.7 億美元成長到 2031 年的 93.3 億美元,複合年成長率為 3.32%。
流體化媒裂(FCC)是一項關鍵的二次煉油工藝,可將重質烴餾分(例如減壓瓦斯油)轉化為更輕、更高價值的產品,例如汽油、烯烴氣和其他餾分油。市場成長的主要驅動力是全球對高辛烷值運輸燃料的持續需求,以及煉油廠和石化企業為最佳化丙烯生產而進行的策略合作。石油輸出國組織(歐佩克)的報告也印證了這一趨勢,報告稱,到2024年,全球煉油產能將增加104萬桶/日,達到1.038億桶/日。這項數據表明,需要持續的基礎設施投資,而高效的催化裂解系統則不可或缺。
| 市場概覽 | |
|---|---|
| 預測期 | 2027-2031 |
| 市場規模:2025年 | 76.7億美元 |
| 市場規模:2031年 | 93.3億美元 |
| 複合年成長率:2026-2031年 | 3.32% |
| 成長最快的細分市場 | 沸石 |
| 最大的市場 | 亞太地區 |
然而,全球能源轉型加速,朝向電動車和再生能源來源發展,這給市場帶來了巨大的阻力,威脅到汽油(FCC裝置的主要產品)的長期需求。車輛動力系統的這種根本轉變,加上煉油廠碳排放和硫含量的嚴格環保法規,共同造就了充滿挑戰的營運環境。這些因素造成了不確定性,並可能限制未來對傳統石化燃料轉化技術的資本投資,因為該產業正努力平衡當前的能源需求與永續性目標。
全球對高辛烷值汽油和運輸燃料的持續需求是流體化媒裂(FCC) 市場的主要驅動力,因為 FCC 是現代煉油廠汽油生產的關鍵裝置。儘管能源轉型正在加速推進,但開發中國家的運輸燃料總消耗量仍在持續成長,這需要裂解裝置維持較高的運轉率,才能將重質真空瓦斯油轉化為高價值的輕質燃料。這種依賴使得 FCC 營運成為下游企業關注區域能源安全的首要任務。國際能源總署 (IEA) 2024 年 11 月發布的《石油市場報告》也印證了這一需求,該報告預測 2024 年全球石油需求將增加 92 萬桶/日,凸顯了高效石化燃料加工的持續必要性。
同時,石化原料(尤其是丙烯)產量的快速成長正在從根本上改變催化裂解(FCC)的投資和營運策略。煉油廠正在加速與石化設施的整合,並從單純的燃料生產轉向以重裂化為重點的FCC運營,以提高丙烯收率,用於塑膠生產。這種戰略轉變在亞洲尤其明顯,亞洲正在建造新的基礎設施以提升化學產能。根據《中國日報》2024年12月發表的題為《全球能源巨頭加強在華佈局》的報導報道,預計2024年至2030年間,中國將佔全球丙烯產能成長的約60%。此外,《經濟時報》報道稱,印度2024年的煉油總產能將達到每年2.568億噸,顯示有大量的資本投資支撐著這一市場發展。
全球向電動車的快速轉型流體化媒裂(FCC)市場的擴張構成了重大的結構性障礙。由於流體化媒裂裝置的主要設計目的是最佳化從重質原油餾分中生產高辛烷值汽油,交通運輸業的電氣化直接挑戰了這些裝置的合理性。隨著汽車業逐步淘汰內燃機,汽油的長期需求預計將永久性下降,這給新建或擴建裂解裝置的投資回報帶來了巨大的不確定性。對石化燃料交通運輸依賴的減少降低了對傳統FCC裝置的運作需求,使得煉油商不願意投資石化燃料為中心的轉化技術。
國際能源總署(IEA)在2024年報告中指出,已開發國家的石油需求將下降0.1%,這與上述趨勢相符。這一萎縮主要歸因於道路運輸燃料消耗量的下降,而道路運輸燃料消耗量的下降又源於更嚴格的燃油經濟性法規以及電動車市場佔有率的成長。精煉餾分油產品市場規模的實際萎縮表明,對二次轉化製程的需求有所下降。因此,資產閒置的實際威脅使得相關人員不願核准流體化媒裂(FCC)基礎設施的大規模資本投資,阻礙了整體市場成長。
隨著煉油廠維修現有基礎設施以降低碳排放強度,生物原料與可再生資源共加工的整合正在迅速改變全球流體化媒裂市場。營運商不再新建獨立的生質燃料工廠,而是擴大改造流體化媒裂裝置,使其能夠共加工脂質基原料,例如植物油和熱解油,以及傳統的真空瓦斯油。這項策略使煉油廠能夠利用現有資產生產可再生柴油和永續航空燃料組分,從而在能源轉型期間有效延長這些裝置的營運價值。 Rigzone 在 2025 年 3 月發表的報導《巴西石油公司在裡奧格蘭德煉油廠成功測試原料共加工》中支持了這一趨勢,文章指出,巴西石油公司在其 2025-2029 年戰略計劃中為生物煉製項目累計15 億美元,重點投資於共加工技術,以在現有設施內升級可再生原料。
同時,市場正經歷著向原油製化學品(CTC)煉廠配置的重大結構性變革,從根本上改變了催化裂解技術的應用。與優先生產運輸燃料的傳統煉廠不同,CTC設計採用先進的催化工藝,例如熱解制化學品(TC2C),將原油直接轉化為石化原料,從而顯著省去了傳統的餾分油生產過程。這一趨勢代表著一項技術進步,它優先考慮化學品的附加價值而非燃料產量,從而保護煉廠免受汽油需求下降的影響。根據《韓國先驅報》2025年10月發表的題為《S-Oil的沙欣計劃即將完工,加速石化雄心》的報導,位於蔚山、投資64.7億美元的沙欣計劃已完成85%。它是世界上首個採用TC2C技術的煉廠,預計將顯著提高化學品相對於燃料的產量。
The Global Fluid Catalytic Cracking Market is projected to expand from a valuation of USD 7.67 Billion in 2025 to USD 9.33 Billion by 2031, registering a CAGR of 3.32%. Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) serves as a vital secondary refining process, converting heavy hydrocarbon fractions like vacuum gas oil into high-value lighter outputs, including gasoline, olefinic gases, and other distillates. Market growth is primarily fueled by the enduring global appetite for high-octane transportation fuels and the strategic alignment of refineries with petrochemical operations to optimize propylene production. Supporting this trend, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries reported that global refining capacity grew by 1.04 million barrels per day in 2024, reaching a total of 103.80 million barrels per day, a statistic that highlights the ongoing infrastructure investments requiring efficient catalytic cracking systems.
| Market Overview | |
|---|---|
| Forecast Period | 2027-2031 |
| Market Size 2025 | USD 7.67 Billion |
| Market Size 2031 | USD 9.33 Billion |
| CAGR 2026-2031 | 3.32% |
| Fastest Growing Segment | Zeolite |
| Largest Market | Asia Pacific |
However, the market faces significant headwinds from the accelerating global energy shift toward electric vehicles and renewable energy sources, which jeopardize the long-term demand for gasoline, the main product of FCC units. This fundamental transformation in automotive propulsion, coupled with rigorous environmental mandates concerning refinery carbon emissions and sulfur levels, establishes a challenging operational landscape. These factors create uncertainty that could restrict future capital investment in traditional fossil fuel conversion technologies, as the industry grapples with the balance between current energy needs and sustainability goals.
Market Driver
The persistent global requirement for high-octane gasoline and transportation fuels serves as the main engine for the Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC) market, given that these units are essential for gasoline production in modern refineries. Although the energy transition is gaining momentum, the total consumption of transportation fuels continues to grow in developing nations, necessitating high utilization rates of cracking units to transform heavy vacuum gas oils into valuable lighter fuels. This dependence ensures that FCC operations remain a top priority for downstream players focused on regional energy security. Reinforcing this demand, the International Energy Agency's 'Oil Market Report' from November 2024 indicates that global oil demand is set to increase by 920,000 barrels per day in 2024, highlighting the ongoing need for effective fossil-fuel processing.
In parallel, the surge in petrochemical feedstock production, especially propylene, is fundamentally altering FCC investment and operational strategies. Refiners are increasingly merging with petrochemical facilities, adjusting FCC operations toward high-severity cracking to boost propylene yields for plastics manufacturing rather than concentrating solely on fuels. This strategic shift is particularly prominent in Asia, where new infrastructure is being built to enhance chemical output. As reported by China Daily in December 2024 within the 'Global energy giants ramp up China presence' article, China is projected to account for nearly 60 percent of global propylene capacity additions between 2024 and 2030. Furthermore, the Economic Times noted that in 2024, India's total refining capacity hit 256.8 million metric tonnes per annum, demonstrating the immense capital investment underpinning this market evolution.
Market Challenge
The rapid global shift toward electric vehicles represents a major structural barrier to the expansion of the Global Fluid Catalytic Cracking Market. Because Fluid Catalytic Cracking units are designed primarily to optimize the production of high-octane gasoline from heavy crude fractions, the electrification of the transport sector directly challenges the economic rationale for these assets. As the automotive industry moves away from internal combustion engines, the long-term demand for gasoline is expected to permanently decrease, generating significant uncertainty regarding the return on investment for new or expanded cracking facilities. This reducing reliance on fossil-fuel-based transport lessens the operational need for traditional FCC units, making refiners reluctant to invest capital in conversion technologies centered on fossil fuels.
Substantiating this trend, the 'International Energy Agency' reported in '2024' that oil demand in advanced economies declined by 0.1 percent, a contraction largely attributed to lower road transport fuel consumption caused by stricter efficiency mandates and the growing market share of electric vehicles. This confirmed reduction in the available market for refined distillates indicates a lower demand for secondary conversion processes. As a result, the tangible threat of stranded assets discourages stakeholders from authorizing substantial capital expenditures for fluid catalytic cracking infrastructure, thereby hindering the overall growth of the market.
Market Trends
The integration of bio-feedstocks and renewable co-processing is swiftly reshaping the Global Fluid Catalytic Cracking Market as refiners retrofit existing infrastructure to reduce carbon intensity. Instead of building standalone biofuel plants, operators are increasingly adapting fluid catalytic cracking units to co-process lipid-based materials, such as vegetable oils and pyrolysis oil, alongside traditional vacuum gas oil. This strategy enables refineries to manufacture renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel components while utilizing their current assets, effectively prolonging the operational relevance of these units during the energy transition. Highlighting this trend, Rigzone reported in a March 2025 article titled 'Petrobras Achieves Successful Feedstock Co-Processing Test at Riograndense' that Petrobras has earmarked $1.5 billion for its BioRefining Program in its 2025-2029 Strategic Plan, specifically focusing on investments in co-processing technologies to upgrade renewable streams within existing facilities.
Concurrently, the market is experiencing a significant structural evolution toward crude-to-chemicals (CTC) refinery configurations, which fundamentally changes the application of catalytic cracking technologies. Unlike conventional refining that prioritizes transportation fuels, CTC designs employ advanced catalytic processes, such as Thermal Crude-to-Chemicals (TC2C), to transform whole crude directly into petrochemical feedstocks, largely bypassing traditional distillate production. This trend signifies a technological advancement designed to prioritize chemical value over fuel volume, protecting refineries from the impact of falling gasoline demand. As per The Korea Herald's October 2025 article, 'S-Oil's Shaheen project nears finish, fueling petrochemical ambitions', the $6.47 billion Shaheen project in Ulsan is 85 percent complete and utilizes world-first TC2C technology to substantially boost the facility's chemical output relative to fuel production.
Report Scope
In this report, the Global Fluid Catalytic Cracking Market has been segmented into the following categories, in addition to the industry trends which have also been detailed below:
Company Profiles: Detailed analysis of the major companies present in the Global Fluid Catalytic Cracking Market.
Global Fluid Catalytic Cracking Market report with the given market data, TechSci Research offers customizations according to a company's specific needs. The following customization options are available for the report: