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RAN自動化:SON，AI，從RIC，及SMO-AI裝載SON非即時RIC及SMO的轉變即將開始(2025年10月)
市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1865917

RAN自動化:SON，AI，從RIC，及SMO-AI裝載SON非即時RIC及SMO的轉變即將開始(2025年10月)

RAN Automation: SON, AI, RIC, and SMO - The Transition from AI-Powered SON to Non-RT RIC and SMO Has Commenced, October 2025
出版日期: | 出版商: Teral Research | 英文 | 商品交期: 請詢問到貨日

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簡介目錄

自組織網路 (SON) 演算法由第三代合作夥伴計畫 (3GPP) 在 21 世紀初定義，無需人工幹預即可自動設定和最佳化行動網路。隨著網路處理大量流量並隨著多代技術的加入而變得日益複雜，SON 演算法正與機器學習 (ML) 和人工智慧 (AI) 演算法整合。

本報告追蹤集中式 SON (C-SON) 軟體和服務收入市場，提供市場規模、預測和供應商市場佔有率，並分析 C-SON 模組和用例的演進。這些已成為無線接取網路智慧控制器 (RIC) 中的應用，是開放式無線接取網路 (Open RAN) 和開放式虛擬化無線接取網路 (Open Virtualized RAN) 架構的必要元件，並且正在擴展以支援所有類型的無線接取網路。

本報告也追蹤了基於 O-RAN 定義的服務管理和編排 (SMO) 市場，並對非即時 RIC 的 rApp 和近實時 RIC 的 xApp 進行了細分。

目錄

概要

重要的要點

隨著向非即時 RIC 和 SMO 的過渡，AI 賦能的 SON 銷售額將在 2024 年達到高峰

  • 全球 SON 軟體和服務收入在 2024 年達到峰值，佔 RAN 自動化總收入的 91%。
    • 據我們估計，諾基亞將繼續在 C-SON 銷售市場佔有率中保持領先地位。
    • 目前，所有 C-SON 供應商都在努力平衡服務現有客戶和向準備採用非即時 RIC 和 SMO 的客戶過渡之間的關係。
    • 預計全球 C-SON 市場將在 2025 年下滑。
    • 全球 C-SON 銷售呈現長尾模式。
    • C-SON 的銷售額從未與行動網路的數量成正比增長。
    • LTE 網路無論是否採用 C-SON 都能成功運行，5G 網路也是如此。 NSA 網路的情況也類似。
    • 自 2010 年推出以來，C-SON 的銷售一直舉步維艱。
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隨著 AT&T 的引領，非即時 RIC、其 RAPP 和 SMO 有望實現強勁成長。

  • 自 2017 年以來，AT&T 一直在推廣 ONAP 和開放式 RAN 計畫。
  • 然而，在2023年，NTT Docomo在RIC展會上佔主導地位。
  • 受地緣政治因素驅動，開放式RAN加速了RIC和SMO的發展。
    • 2021年，基於O-RAN聯盟框架開發了RIC和SMO預測模型。
    • 2023年8月，O-RAN聯盟公佈了其對NIC（RIC的演進版本）的願景。
  • 因此，包括非即時 RIC 和 RAPPS 在內的 SMO 市場將在 2024 年突破 1 億美元大關。
    • 愛立信預測，非即時 RIC 將在 2024 年突破 1 億美元大關。引領 RIC 與 SMO 市場
    • 三星緊追在後
    • 高通在 Verizon 的推動下躍居第三
    • 正如三年前預測的那樣，RIC 將在所有 RAN 中部署
    • 與它的前身 C-SON 一樣，RIC 需要使用 AI 和 ML 將指令傳回 RAN
    • RIC 市場趨勢將與 C-SON 的趨勢相同
  • 我們的模型預測，非即時 RIC 市場五年複合年增長率將達到 51%
    • 到 2028 年，我們預期 RIC 將佔 C-SON 收入和服務的 88%。將以非即時 RIC rApp 的形式出現。
    • xApp 需要等待，因為它們需要產生大量的 RAN 場景來模擬真實世界的事件。
    • 近實時 RIC 市場正在釋放先前僅由 RAN 供應商管理的 D-SON 用例。然而，這種情況仍然存在。
    • 通訊服務提供者 (CSP) 對近實時 RIC 有許多疑問。
    • 應用生態系統正在快速成長。
    • 網路優化 rApp 佔總數的 67%。
  • 所有這些都在推動所有 RAN 的 SMO 市場發展。
    • SMO 市場將快速成長，並代表最大的商業機會，逐步取代 OSS。
    • 在整個預測期內，亞太地區將是最大的 SMO 市場。
簡介目錄

Defined by the Third Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) at the beginning of this century, SON (self-organizing network) algorithms configure and optimize mobile networks automatically without human interaction. As networks handle vast amounts of traffic and become more and more complex through the addition of several generations, SON algorithms are blended with machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms.

This report tracks the centralized SON (C-SON) software and services revenue market, provides size, forecast and vendor market shares, and analyzes the evolution of C-SON modules and use cases becoming apps in the RAN Intelligent Controller (RIC) needed in open RAN, open virtual RAN architectures, and expanding to support any types of RAN. This report also tracks the O-RAN defined service management and orchestration (SMO) market and provides a breakdown between non-Real Time RIC rApps and near-Real Time RIC xApps.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT

KEY TAKEAWAYS

AS THE SHIFT TO NON-RT RIC AND SMO KICKS OFF, AI-POWERED SON SALES PEAKED IN 2024

  • GLOBAL SON SOFTWARE AND SERVICES REVENUE PEAKED IN 2024 AND ACCOUNTED FOR 91% OF TOTAL RAN AUTOMATION SALES
    • Our estimates indicate Nokia continues to lead C-SON sales market shares
    • At this point, every C-SON vendor is juggling between servicing existing customers and migrating those customers ready to adopt non-RT RIC and SMO
    • We forecast the global C-SON market to start its decline in 2025
    • Global C-SON sales will follow a long tail pattern
    • C-SON sales have never grown proportionally to the number of mobile networks
    • Because with or without C-SON, LTE networks are running fine, so are 5G NSA ones
    • Since its debut in 2010, C-SON has always been a tough sell

WITH AT&T BACK IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT, THE NON-RT RIC, ITS RAPPS AND THE SMO ARE POISED FOR STRONG GROWTH

  • SINCE 2017, AT&T HAS BEEN DRIVING THE ONAP AND OPEN RAN EFFORTS
  • BUT NTT DOCOMO STOLE THE RIC SHOW IN 2023
  • FUELED BY GEOPOLITICS, OPEN RAN ACCELERATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE RIC AND THE SMO
    • In 2021, we developed a RIC and SMO forecast model based on the O-RAN Alliance framework
    • In August 2023, the O-RAN Alliance released a vision of the NIC, the evolution of the RIC
  • AS A RESULT, THE SMO MARKET, INCLUDING NON-RT RIC AND RAPPS, PASSED THE $100M BAR IN 2024
    • Ericsson leads the Non-RT RIC and SMO market...
    • ...followed by Samsung
    • Propelled by Verizon, Qualcomm ranks third
    • As we predicted three years ago, RIC is deployed in any RAN
    • Like its C-SON predecessor, RIC uses AI and ML, and needs to send back instructions to the RAN
    • RIC market developments follow the same pattern as C-SON's
  • OUR MODEL PRODUCED A 51% NON-RT RIC MARKET 5-YEAR CAGR
    • In 2028, we expect 88% of C-SON sales and services to be in the form of a non-RT RIC rApps
    • The xApp will have to wait because the training requires a vast amount of RAN scenarios that can be generated to reproduce real events
    • The Near-Real Time RIC market is unleashing D-SON use cases that until now were proprietary and controlled by the RAN vendors; they still are though!
    • CSPs have plenty of questions about the near-real time RIC
    • The App ecosystem is mushrooming
    • Network optimization rApps accounts for 67% of total
  • ALL THIS DRIVES THE SMO MARKET FOR ANY RAN
    • The SMO market is poised for a rapid ramp up, and will be the largest opportunity as it gradually replaces the OSS
    • Asia Pacific will be the largest SMO market throughout the forecast period