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日本無線基礎設施（2025 年 4 月）：您好，4G 將在 2024 年主導日本 RAN 市場，但 Open vRAN 已成為現實，勢不可擋
市場調查報告書
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1714896

日本無線基礎設施（2025 年 4 月）：您好，4G 將在 2024 年主導日本 RAN 市場，但 Open vRAN 已成為現實，勢不可擋

Japan Wireless Infrastructure Report, April 2025 - Konnichiwa, although 4G Dominated Japan's RAN Activity in 2024, Open vRAN is Real and Ultimately Unstoppable
出版日期: | 出版商: Teral Research | 英文 | 商品交期: 請詢問到貨日

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簡介目錄

本報告聚焦在日本無線基礎設施市場，分析樂天移動的進入以及日本政府推動Open RAN的影響。該報告計劃在 KDDI、NTTdocomo、樂天移動和軟銀四家電信公司發佈各自報告幾週後發布。它將收集 2024 年的詳細數據，並提供 2025 年的展望以及未來五年 RAN（無線存取網路）市場的預測。該報告包括 4G 和 5G 基地台 (BTS) 數量、RAN 供應商市場佔有率和相關分析。

目錄

概要

要點

  • 2024 年：從 5G 轉向 4G，但這不足以讓市場維持成長態勢。
  • 4G如此大幅度的成長是意料之外的，但對旅遊業來說是一個正面的影響。
  • 由於外匯匯率和 4G 平均售價下降，實際收入比我們的預測低 12%
  • 5G 的投資興趣仍較低
  • 2024 年，Open RAN BTS 將佔所有安裝設備的 75%
  • 在這種環境下，愛立信保持了第一的位置，並且市場佔有率略有增加。
  • 諾基亞繼續縮小與愛立信的差距
  • NEC 和三星並列第三
  • 樂天 Symphony 的表現優於在國內和海外市場都陷入困境的富士通。
  • 儘管向 5G 的轉變很大，但預計 2025 年總銷量和銷售量都將呈下降趨勢
  • 開放式虛擬化 RAN 將成為主流，到 2030 年將佔所有 5G RAN 單元的 95%

日本向世界展示了 5G 開放 VRAN 島嶼的樣子…

  • 在過去三年中，Rakuten Symphony 迅速擴張並開始征服世界。
    • 電信業歡迎 NF 應用市場和 Symworld
    • 樂天移動在美國和德國的努力已經明確表明，該公司的野心遠不止成為日本第四大行動營運商。
    • 高通加入 5G Open 競爭，推出 Massive Mimo
    • AT&T 選擇 Rakuten Symphony 協助進行網路規劃
    • 思科將把其移動、交換和路由以及自動化產品組合引入樂天 Symphony
    • Rakuten Symphony 將 robin.io 加入 Quiver
    • Rakuten Symphony 選擇諾基亞雲端原生軟體作為第一個 Symworld 合作夥伴
    • 當天的亮點是 Ajit Pai 加入聚會。
    • Rakuten Symphony 攜手 MTN 進軍非洲
    • 在 MWC23 上，樂天推出了其 Symware 2.0 軟體。
    • 樂天今年在法國巴黎開設了樂天科技中心。
  • 儘管 2023 年高層將卸任，但樂天 Symphony 的全球統治地位仍將持續
    • 意向書和諒解備忘錄在 MWC24 上簽署勢頭強勁
    • 在 MWC25 上發布的其他公告中，Rakuten Symphony 宣布 Airspan、思科和 Tech Mahindra 已成為其 Open RAN 授權計畫的首批合作夥伴。
  • 這一勢頭使富士通和 NEC 成為俄羅斯最大的供應商和 SI 冠軍，但這種情況將在 2023 年發生改變
    • 自2019年下半年樂天移動開始建設網路以來，日本巨頭富士通和NEC一直在國內外市場忙碌。
    • 這兩家日本供應商預計今年將復甦
  • KDDI、NTTdocomo 和軟銀積極推動開放 RAN 議程
    • KDDI 將於 2022 年 2 月成功推出全球首個 5G SA 開放式 vRAN 站點
    • 2022 年 3 月，NTTdocomo 將採用 Rakuten Symphony 策略
    • Docomo 的共享開放實驗室利用了 OREC 計劃
    • 在 MWC23 上，docomo 將 OREC 專案更名為 OREX
    • Docomo 和 NEC 在 MWC24 上推出 OREX SAI
    • 自此以後，OREX SAI 開始獲得國際發展動力。
    • 在 MWC24 上，軟銀、NEC 和 VMware 宣布，他們已透過將電信雲與 O-RAN 架構相集成，聯合驗證了 RAN 虛擬化
    • 但後來 VMware 消失了，而 Red Hat 和 AITRAS 出現了。
    • 儘管轉向AI-RAN，軟銀仍致力於O-RAN，並與愛立信簽署諒解備忘錄
  • Docomo、KDDI、Softbank 和 Rakuten Mobile 合作成立 OTIC，以加速 Open RAN 的普及

2018 年：日本撼動寡占移動市場並啟動 Open RAN 議程的一年

  • 受美國影響，日本政府迅速採取了Open RAN計劃
  • 為富士通和 NEC 提供激勵措施，以鞏固其市場地位
  • 美國也要求 NTT 和 NEC 成為 Open RAN 政策聯盟的創始成員
  • 美國和日本正在包括6G在內的多個領域合作。
簡介目錄

This report focuses on Japan's wireless infrastructure market and analyzes the implications of the introduction of Rakuten Mobile and the Japanese government's open RAN push. The publication date is scheduled a few weeks after the 4 services providers: KDDI, NTT DOCOMO, Rakuten Mobile, and Softbank, provide their reports so that we can gather many details about 2024 and provide 2025 outlook and a 5-year RAN forecast. This report includes 4G and 5G base station (BTS) numbers and RAN vendor market shares and analysis.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • 2024 SAW A SHIFT FROM 5G TO 4G, BUT IT WAS NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MARKET IN GROWTH TERRITORY
  • We did not expected such a big 4G jump, that's the tourism success effect!
  • A combination of FOREX and low 4G ASP dragged actual sales 12% below our forecast
  • There is still no strong motivation to invest in 5G
  • Open RAN BTS accounted for 75% of total units deployed in 2024
  • In this context, Ericsson stayed #1 and slightly increased its share
  • Nokia continued to close the gap with Ericsson
  • For third spot, NEC and Samsung are neck and neck
  • Rakuten Symphony moved ahead of Fujitsu, which had a bad year in both its domestic and international markets
  • DESPITE A MAJOR SHIFT TO 5G, 2025 IS LOOKING DOWN FOR BOTH TOTAL UNITS AND SALES
    • After the surge, we expect a steep decline in 4G units
    • Conversely, 5G units should grow this year, followed by a surge in 2027
    • The MIC's roadmad remains in effect through the end of the year
    • Propelled by 5G, the RAN market will peak in 2027 and then fall again
    • Outdoor 5G deployments will remain above 70% throughout the forecast period
  • OPEN VIRTUAL RAN IS THE NAME OF THE GAME AND WILL ACCOUNT FOR 95% OF TOTAL 5G RAN UNITS BY 2030
    • The open vRAN ramp up is expected this year
    • The 4 service providers pointed out that the availability of the RAN intelligent controller (RIC) is fundamental for the success of open vRAN moving forward
    • Japan's open RAN-based 5G BTS configuration simplifies the counting process, it is site counting
    • Japan's 5G looks like 1 site = 1 CU (including the DU)

JAPAN IS SHOWING THE WORLD WHAT A 5G OPEN VRAN ISLAND LOOKS LIKE...

  • OVER THE PAST 3 YEARS, RAKUTEN SYMPHONY QUICKLY EXPANDED AND STARTED TO CONQUER THE WORLD...
    • The telecom world welcomes Symworld, the NF App marketplace
    • It was already obvious from the beginiing with its initiatives in the U.S. and Germany that Rakuten Mobile had bigger ambitions than solely acting as Japan's 4th mobile operator.
    • Qualcomm came to the 5G open ran massive mimo rescue
    • AT&T turned to Rakuten Symphony for network planning help
    • Cisco brought its mobile, switching & routing, and automation portfolio to Rakuten Symphony
    • Rakuten Symphony added robin.io to its quiver
    • Rakuten Symphony selected Nokia's cloud native software as first Symworld partner
    • Perhaps the icing on the cake? Ajit Pai joined the party
    • Rakuten Symphony went to Africa with MTN
    • At MWC23, Rakuten launched its Symware 2.0 software
    • Lastly, this year, Rakuten established Rakuten Tech Center in Paris, France
  • DESPITE THE DEPARTURE OF HIGH-PROFILE EXECUTIVES IN 2023, RAKUTEN SYMPHONY'S CONQUEST OF THE WORLD IS CONTINUING
    • At MWC24, the signature of a letter of intent and a memorandum of understanding highlighted the momentum
    • And at MWC25, among many announcements, Rakuten Symphony said that Airspan, Cisco and Tech Mahindra were the first partners for its open RAN licensing program
  • THIS MOMENTUM MADE FUJITSU AND NEC TOP RU SUPPLIERS AND SI CHAMPIONS BUT THINGS CHANGED IN 2023
    • Since the start of Rakuten Mobile's network buildout in 2H19, Japan's domestic champions Fujitsu and NEC have been busy both at home and in international markets
    • However, we expect the 2 Japanese vendors to turn the corner this year
  • KDDI, NTT DOCOMO, AND SOFTBANK ARE ACTIVELY PUSHING THE OPEN RAN AGENDA
    • In February 2022, KDDI successfully turned on the world's first 5G SA open vRAN site
    • In March 2022, NTT docomo adopted the Rakuten Symphony playbook
    • Docomo's Shared Open Lab leverages its OREC initiatives
    • At MWC23, docomo rebranded its OREC project OREX
    • At MWC24, docomo and NEC launched OREX SAI
    • Since, OREX SAI has showed some international momentum
    • At MWC24, SoftBank, NEC and VMware announced that they have jointly verified RAN virtualization by converging telco cloud with an O-RAN architecture
    • But as VMware is gone, then came Red Hat and AITRAS
    • Despite its detour to AI-RAN, Softbank remained committed to O-RAN and signed a MoU with Ericsson
  • AND LASTLY, DOCOMO, KDDI, SOFTBANK AND RAKUTEN MOBILE FORMED OTIC TO COMBINE EFFORTS AND ACCELERATE OPEN RAN ADOPTION

2018 WAS THE YEAR JAPAN DECIDED TO SHAKE UP ITS OLIGOPOLISTIC MOBILE MARKET, WHICH KICKED OFF THE OPEN RAN AGENDA

  • INFLUENCED BY THE U.S., THE JAPANESE GOVERNMENT QUICKLY ADOPTED THE OPEN RAN AGENDA...
  • ...AND GIVING INCENTIVES TO FUJITSU AND NEC TO STRENGTHEN THEIR MARKET POSITION
  • THE U.S. ALSO ASKED NTT AND NEC TO BE FOUNDING MEMBERS OF THE OPEN RAN POLICY COALITION
  • AND LASTLY, THE U.S. AND JAPAN ARE COLLABORATING ON MULTIPLE FRONTS, INCLUDING 6G