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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
2102903

成熟記憶的結構性供不應求：價格停滯期即將到來（2026 年下半年）。

Mature Memory Structural Shortage: Price Plateau Era Arrives - 2H26
出版日期: | 出版商: TrendForce | 英文 6 Pages | 商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內

價格
簡介目錄

資本向高效能晶片的轉移給成熟的製造流程帶來了壓力，促使高可靠性記憶體出現結構性供不應求。由於價值重估成長速度超過銷售成長，市場收入飆升。產業已進入價格穩定期，競爭對手的重心正轉向供應穩定性和長期合約管理。

主要亮點

  • 長期產能限制：隨著全球投資轉向高附加價值晶片，成熟的製造流程正面臨嚴重的限制。
  • 強大的需求障礙：在汽車和邊緣人工智慧等替代性極強的領域，需要極高的可靠性，從而創造強大的競爭優勢。
  • 對歷史價值的重新評估：受價格而非銷售的驅動，該產業正經歷銷售額的大幅成長，達到數十年來的最高水準。
  • 結構性價格平台期：由於沒有擴張計劃，供應依然緊張。價格接近歷史高位，預計旺季期間將進一步上漲。
  • 市場競爭格局轉變：供應商依賴長期供應契約，競爭的重點從低價轉向供應穩定性。
  • 持續盈利：透過獲得汽車行業的認證並成為高密度產品的領先供應商，可以期待享受長期的收入成長。

目錄

  • 1. 由於 NOR 快閃記憶體和 SLC NAND 的結構性短缺持續存在，預計價格將在 2026 年下半年趨於穩定。
  • 2. 由於人工智慧邊緣化，成熟過程的供給減少。
  • 3. 結構性供不應求將持續存在，價格將維持在高點。
  • 4. 結論：延長成熟儲存產品的高獲利期。
    • 產品類型－具體供應狀況與價格趨勢（2026年下半年）
簡介目錄
Product Code: TRi-0115

Capital shifts to high-performance chips have squeezed mature processes, triggering structural shortages in high-reliability memory. As value revaluation outpaces volume growth, market revenue surges. The industry enters a price plateau, shifting competition to supply stability and long-term contract management.

Key Highlights

  • Long-Term Capacity Squeeze: Global investments pivot to high-value chips, leaving mature manufacturing processes heavily constrained.
  • Rigid Demand Barriers: Highly unsubstitutable sectors like automotive and edge AI demand extreme reliability, creating strong moats.
  • Historic Value Revaluation: Driven by pricing rather than volume, the industry experiencing a massive revenue surge, hitting multi-decade highs.
  • Structural Price Plateau: Without expansion plans, supply remains tight. Prices will hover around historic peaks and drift higher during peak seasons.
  • Shift in Market Competition: Vendors lean on long-term supply agreements, shifting competitive focus from low pricing to supply stability.
  • Extended Profitability Cycle: Leading suppliers with automotive certifications and high-density products will enjoy a prolonged profit era.

Table of Contents

  • 1. Price Plateau Lands amidst Ongoing Structural Shortages of NOR Flash and SLC NAND in 2H26
  • 2. Shrinking Supply for Mature Processes under Marginalization by AI
  • 3. Structural Undersupply Continues, Prices Have Entered a High Plateau Phase
  • 4. Conclusion: Prolonged Period of High Profitability for Mature Memory Products
    • Supply Situations and Price Trends by Product Category, 2H26