DDR5 供應短缺推高價格；預計到 2026 年利潤將超過 HBM3e

儘管最初由於關稅和政策變化，需求較為謹慎，但雲端運算的擴張和人工智慧投資正在推動記憶體需求和價格上漲，導致 DRAM 供應趨緊。 DDR5 的上漲趨勢已成定局，預計其獲利能力將超過 HBM3e。廠商的產能分配和定價策略將重塑市場格局。

範例預覽

主要亮點：

• 最初，關稅和政策變化促使買家加快下單，但終端用戶需求依然謹慎。 隨著雲端運算擴張和人工智慧投資加速，記憶體需求增強，供應趨緊，DRAM價格上漲。
• 伺服器出貨量和單系統記憶體密度同步成長，推動了位元需求的顯著成長，並導致全年供需缺口擴大。
• 近期合約價格調漲幅度大幅增加，導致部分產品嚴重短缺和物價大幅上漲。
• DDR5價格持續上漲，利潤成長勢頭強勁；而HBM3e由於競爭和庫存壓力而走弱，價格差距縮小。 DDR5的獲利能力可望超越HBM3e，促使廠商重新審視產能分配與定價策略。

目錄

第一章：預計2026年伺服器DRAM需求將成長超過20%，由於CSP需求強勁，供應短缺加劇

• 2025年第四季DRAM合約價格預測（更新前後對比）

  第二章：DDR5價格漲幅預計為0.65美元/Gb，預計2026年獲利能力將超過HBM3e

  • DDR5與HBM的平均售價比較

Tariffs and policy changes kept early demand cautious, but cloud expansion and AI investment have lifted memory demand and pricing, tightening DRAM supply. The DDR5 uptrend is established, with profitability likely to surpass HBM3e; vendors' capacity allocation and pricing strategies will reshape the market landscape.

Sample preview

Key Highlights:

• Early on, tariffs and policy shifts prompted buyers to pull in orders while end demand stayed cautious; as cloud expansion and AI investment accelerated, memory demand strengthened, supply tightened, and DRAM pricing moved higher.
• Server shipments and per-system memory density are rising in tandem, driving significant bit-demand growth and extending the supply-demand gap across calendar years.
• Recent contract price increases have been markedly revised upward, with some products facing acute shortages and outsized price gains.
• DDR5's rally is continuing with strengthening profit momentum; HBM3e is weakening under competitive dynamics and inventory pressure, narrowing the price gap. DDR5 profitability is poised to overtake, prompting adjustments in capacity allocation and pricing strategies.

Table of Contents

1. Due to CSPs' Strong Pull-In Momentum, Server DRAM Demand Is Expected to Grow by Over 20% in 2026, Thus Reinforcing Shortage

• Projected DRAM Contract Prices for 4Q25 (Before and After Update)

2. Price Hike for DDR5 Established at US$0.65/Gb; Profitability to Surpass HBM3e in 2026

• ASP between DDR5 and HBM