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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
2106332
排碳權市場:2034 年預測-按信用類型、項目類型、市場類型、買方類型、交易平台、最終用戶和地區分類的全球分析Carbon Credits Market Forecasts to 2034 - Global Analysis By Credit Type, Project Type, Market Type, Buyer Type, Trading Platform, End User and By Geography |
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根據 Stratistics MRC 的數據,預計到 2026 年,全球排碳權市場規模將達到 85 億美元,並在預測期內以 22.0% 的複合年成長率成長,到 2034 年將達到 281 億美元。
排碳權是指排放一噸二氧化碳或等效溫室氣體的權利,或證明已通過認證項目檢驗並減少或避免一噸排放的可交易證書或許可證。這些金融工具在受總量管制與交易法規約束的合規市場或企業和個人購買碳權額以抵消排放的自願市場中進行交易。排碳權的產生途徑包括可再生能源發電、森林保護、甲烷捕集、能源效率提升和直接碳移除技術等項目。它們由獨立的認證機構進行檢驗,並在追蹤系統中註冊,然後透過交易所、仲介或買賣雙方之間的直接合約進行交易。
企業淨零排放承諾
隨著企業加速推動淨零排放和碳中和目標,整個自我規範市場對可靠排碳權的需求空前高漲。科技、金融、航空和消費品行業的領導者正在製定科學碳目標,並尋求碳抵消以抵消其剩餘排放。隨著企業建構碳抵銷組合,這些承諾將在未來幾年持續產生需求。投資者透過環境、社會和管治(ESG) 框架施加的壓力也推動了碳權的取得。碳中和作為一種競爭優勢的確立,正在推動市場成長,其成長速度甚至超過了監管要求。
對可靠性的擔憂
人們持續擔憂特定排碳權項目的環境完整性和額外性,這仍然是市場擴張和買家信心的主要障礙。調查顯示,有信用額度過高、項目缺乏額外性、誇大減排量等情況。不同標準和專案類型的品質差異也使買家決策更加複雜。與低品質信用額掛鉤帶來的聲譽風險,導致一些企業買家猶豫不決。為了應對這些誠信挑戰並恢復市場信心,必須加強檢驗協議和機制,以確保市場透明度。
第六條機制
《巴黎協定》第六條的實施為透過建立跨國排放轉移規則和市場機制來變革國際碳權市場提供了機會。第六條第二款允許對國際轉移的減排成果進行雙邊和多邊交易。第六條第四款建立了企劃為基礎的碳權集中機制,並規定了相應的調整要求。這些框架有望刺激政府層面的需求,並使國際碳權的品質標準化。由此形成的市場基礎設施將支持已開發國家向開發中國家大規模的氣候融資流動。
監管碎片化
不同司法管轄區之間不相容的碳權標準、註冊系統和法規結構的激增,威脅著市場流動性和價格發現效率。不同的合規市場使用不可互換的信用產品進行交易。自願性市場標準在缺乏統一品質標準的情況下相互競爭。各國碳計量規則使國際信用轉移變得複雜。這種碎片化增加了交易成本,並限制了碳市場在全球減排方面實現成本效益的能力。
新冠疫情初期擾亂了開發中國家碳權計畫的檢驗和監測活動。然而,隨著企業將永續發展納入其韌性策略,這場危機強化了它們對氣候變遷的承諾。疫情後,淨零排放承諾的激增推高了自願性碳權需求。遠端檢驗技術的應用提高了專案監測的效率。監管機構對碳市場健康狀況的持續關注,也推動了相關標準的持續改善。
在預測期內,自願性碳權領域預計將佔據最大的市場佔有率。
預計在預測期內,自願性排碳權市場將佔據最大的市場佔有率,因為企業永續發展項目(購買超出監管要求的碳權額度)正在迅速擴張。自願市場確保了專案類型和地理選擇的柔軟性。大型企業正在簽訂長期碳排放協議,以確保碳權額度的供應。該市場受益於多種調查方法,包括基於自然的解決方案和技術的減排方法。消費品牌正在利用自願性碳權額度來宣傳其產品的碳中和特性。包括註冊機構和評級機構在內的市場基礎設施,有助於提高交易的透明度。
預計在預測期內,捕碳封存(CCS)領域將實現最高的複合年成長率。
在預測期內,捕碳封存(CCS)領域預計將呈現最高的成長率,這主要得益於永久性碳移除作為最可靠的碳抵消方式的認可度不斷提高。與生物方法相比,CCS專案能夠提供持久的儲存,且逆轉風險極低。基於技術的碳權額在自願性碳市場中享有溢價。政府對碳捕獲的獎勵正在改善計畫的經濟效益。大型能源公司正在投資CCS碳權的創造,將其作為脫碳策略的一部分。此領域受惠於清晰的調查方法和完善的監測規程。
在整個預測期內,北美預計將保持最大的市場佔有率,這主要得益於全球最大的企業自願性碳權需求以及成熟的合規市場。美國在該領域處於領先地位,大型科技公司每年購買數百萬噸碳權。加州的碳總量管制與交易計畫和區域溫室氣體舉措(RGGI)正在推動合規需求。加拿大的聯邦碳定價機制也為碳權交易提供了支持。主要的碳權開發商和註冊機構總部均設在北美。
在預測期內,亞太地區預計將呈現最高的複合年成長率,這主要得益於中國合規碳市場的擴張以及該地區企業對自願性碳權的新需求。中國覆蓋的碳排放量規模位居世界第一。東南亞國家在基於自然的碳權項目方面擁有巨大潛力。日本和韓國正將國際碳權額度與其國內碳定價機制對接。區域金融中心正在建設碳排放交易基礎設施。企業永續發展意識的不斷增強也推動了自願性碳市場的擴張。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Carbon Credits Market is accounted for $8.5 billion in 2026 and is expected to reach $28.1 billion by 2034 growing at a CAGR of 22.0% during the forecast period. Carbon credits refer to tradable certificates or permits representing the right to emit one tonne of carbon dioxide or equivalent greenhouse gas, or representing the verified removal or avoidance of one tonne of emissions through certified projects. These instruments operate within compliance markets governed by cap-and-trade regulations and voluntary markets where corporations and individuals purchase credits to offset emissions. Carbon credits are generated through projects including renewable energy deployment, forestry conservation, methane capture, energy efficiency improvements, and direct carbon removal technologies. They are verified by independent standards bodies, registered in tracking systems, and traded through exchanges, brokers, or direct agreements between buyers and sellers.
Corporate net-zero commitments
The accelerating wave of corporate net-zero and carbon-neutral pledges is driving unprecedented demand for high-integrity carbon credits across voluntary markets. Major corporations in technology, finance, aviation, and consumer goods sectors have established science-based targets that require carbon offsetting for residual emissions. These commitments create durable multi-year demand as companies build offset portfolios. Investor pressure through environmental, social, and governance frameworks reinforces credit procurement. The normalization of carbon neutrality as a competitive differentiator sustains market growth beyond regulatory requirements.
Integrity concerns
Persistent concerns about the environmental integrity and additionality of certain carbon credit projects present significant barriers to market expansion and buyer confidence. Investigations have revealed instances of overcrediting, non-additional projects, and exaggerated emission reduction claims. The variability in quality across different standards and project types complicates buyer decision-making. Reputational risks from association with low-quality credits deter some corporate purchasers. These integrity challenges require enhanced verification protocols and market transparency mechanisms to restore trust.
Article 6 mechanisms
The operationalization of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement presents transformative opportunities for international carbon credit markets by establishing rules for cross-border emission transfers and market mechanisms. Article 6.2 enables bilateral and multilateral trading of internationally transferred mitigation outcomes. Article 6.4 creates a centralized mechanism for project-based carbon credits with corresponding adjustment requirements. These frameworks could unlock government-level demand and standardize international credit quality. The resulting market infrastructure supports scaled climate finance flows from developed to developing countries.
Regulatory fragmentation
The proliferation of incompatible carbon credit standards, registries, and regulatory frameworks across jurisdictions threatens market liquidity and price discovery efficiency. Different compliance markets operate with non-fungible credit instruments. Voluntary market standards compete without unified quality benchmarks. National carbon accounting rules create complexity for international credit transfers. This fragmentation increases transaction costs and limits the ability of carbon markets to achieve global cost-effectiveness in emission reduction.
The COVID-19 pandemic initially disrupted carbon credit project verification and monitoring activities in developing countries. However, the crisis reinforced corporate climate commitments as companies integrated sustainability into resilience strategies. Post-pandemic, the surge in net-zero pledges increased voluntary credit demand. The normalization of remote verification technologies improved project monitoring efficiency. Sustained regulatory attention on carbon market integrity supports continued standard development.
The voluntary carbon credits segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The voluntary carbon credits segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period, due to the rapid expansion of corporate sustainability programs purchasing credits beyond regulatory requirements. Voluntary markets offer flexibility in project type selection and geographic preferences. Major corporations are establishing long-term offtake agreements to secure credit supply. The segment benefits from diverse project methodologies, including nature-based solutions and technology-based removal. Consumer-facing brands utilize voluntary credits for product carbon neutrality claims. Market infrastructure, including registries and rating agencies, supports transaction transparency.
The carbon capture and storage segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the carbon capture and storage segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate, driven by increasing recognition of permanent carbon removal as the highest-integrity offset category. CCS projects offer durable storage with minimal reversal risk compared to biological approaches. Technology-based credits command premium pricing in voluntary markets. Government incentives for carbon capture improve project economics. Major energy companies are investing in CCS credit generation as part of decarbonization strategies. The segment benefits from clear quantification methodologies and established monitoring protocols.
During the forecast period, the North America region is expected to hold the largest market share, due to the world's largest voluntary carbon credit demand from corporate buyers and established compliance markets. The United States leads with major technology companies purchasing millions of tonnes of credits annually. California's cap-and-trade program and the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative create demand for compliance. Canada's federal carbon pricing system supports credit trading. Major carbon credit developers and registries are headquartered in North America.
Over the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is expected to exhibit the highest CAGR, driven by the expansion of compliance carbon markets in China and emerging voluntary credit demand from regional corporations. China's national emissions trading system is the world's largest by covered emissions. Southeast Asian countries offer substantial nature-based credit project potential. Japan and South Korea are linking international credits with domestic carbon pricing. Regional financial centers are developing carbon trading infrastructure. Growing corporate sustainability awareness supports voluntary market expansion.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Carbon Credits Market include Verra, Gold Standard Foundation, South Pole Group, Climate Impact Partners, Pachama Inc., Sylvera Ltd., Xpansiv, Carbonplace, ClimateTrade, Rubicon Carbon, Carbonfuture GmbH, Respira International, AirCarbon Exchange, CBL Markets, Pole Star Global, Carbon Direct and EcoAct SAS.
In June 2026, Verra updated its Verified Carbon Standard methodology to incorporate enhanced permanence requirements for nature-based credits, improving market confidence in forestry offset quality.
In May 2026, Gold Standard Foundation launched a new certification framework for technology-based carbon removal credits, establishing rigorous monitoring protocols for direct air capture and mineralization projects.
In April 2026, Xpansiv expanded its digital commodity exchange to include standardized carbon credit futures contracts, improving price transparency and liquidity for voluntary market participants.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Rest of the World (RoW) Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.