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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
2102588
核能市場:2034 年預測 - 全球分析(核子反應爐類型、燃料類型、技術、發電量、裝置容量、部署類型、應用、最終用戶、電廠生命週期、組件和地區分類)Nuclear Power Market Forecasts to 2034 - Global Analysis By Reactor Type, Fuel Type, Technology Generation, Capacity, Deployment Type, Application, End User, Plant Lifecycle, Component, and By Geography |
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根據 Stratistics MRC 的數據,預計到 2026 年,全球核能市場規模將達到 419 億美元,並在預測期內以 3.7% 的複合年成長率成長,到 2034 年將達到 560 億美元。
核能是一種低碳能源來源,它透過將核分裂反應產生的熱能轉化為電能來發電。該市場涵蓋多種燃料類型,例如鈾燃料、混合氧化物(MOX)燃料、釷燃料、TRISO燃料、高豐度低濃縮鈾(HALEU)燃料和其他先進燃料,並支援多種核子反應爐技術,包括第二代、第三代、第三代增強型和第四代核子反應爐。全球能源需求的成長、對脫碳和溫室氣體減排的日益重視、對能源安全的擔憂以及核子反應爐設計技術的進步,是推動各地區市場擴張的主要動力。
全球能源需求不斷成長和脫碳目標
全球能源需求不斷成長,加上雄心勃勃的脫碳目標,是推動核能市場發展的主要動力。核能作為可靠的低碳基本負載電源,可與太陽能和風能等間歇性再生能源來源形成互補。許多國家正在將核能納入其清潔能源策略,以實現氣候目標並減少溫室氣體排放。對能源安全的迫切需求以及擺脫對石化燃料進口依賴的趨勢,正在推動對核能的投資。各國在努力平衡不斷成長的電力需求與減少排放承諾的同時,核能提供了成熟且擴充性的清潔能源解決方案。
高昂的資本成本和較長的建設週期
核能發電廠所需的巨額資本投入和漫長的建設週期是限制核能市場發展的主要因素。核能發電廠需要數十億美元的前期投資,建設週期可能長達數年。興建期間的資金籌措成本會顯著增加專案總成本。許多近期專案都出現了成本超支和工期延誤,造成了財務風險。此外,專業施工技術和材料的取得難度也會影響專案的可行性。這些成本和時間方面的挑戰可能會限制核能的擴張,尤其是在資金籌措有限或投資者持謹慎態度的國家。
小型模組化反應器技術的進步
小型模組化反應器(SMR)的開發為擴大核能市場提供了重要機會。與大型核子反應爐相比,SMR具有許多優勢,例如初始投資成本更低、建設週期更短以及可在工廠預製。 SMR可部署在小規模的電網和偏遠地區,從而擴大核能的供應範圍。標準化設計和模組化建造降低了專案風險。投資人對SMR開發的興趣日益濃厚,政府的支持也正在加速該技術的商業化進程。隨著SMR獲得監管部門的批准並開始商業運營,由於新的應用領域和核能範圍的擴大,其市場佔有率正在不斷成長。
與低成本可再生能源和儲能技術的競爭。
可再生能源技術成本的大幅降低和儲能解決方案的進步對核能市場的成長構成了重大威脅。在許多市場,太陽能和風能的成本已經可以與傳統發電方式相提並論。電池儲能的容量和成本也不斷提高,有效應對了間歇性發電的挑戰。可再生能源專案的快速部署使其比建設週期較長的核能更具優勢。政策支援可能轉向成本更低的可再生能源解決方案。這種競爭可能會限制對核能的投資,尤其是在可再生能源資源豐富且儲能經濟效益良好的市場。
新冠疫情對核能市場的影響喜憂參半。核能發電廠作為重要的基礎設施,即使在封鎖期間也繼續運作。另一方面,由於勞動力短缺、供應鏈中斷和物流挑戰,建設項目被迫延長。經濟的不確定性影響了新計畫項目的規劃和投資決策。然而,疫情促使人們更加關注清潔能源和能源安全,一些國家的政府也將核能納入了經濟復甦計畫。疫情後,核能仍然是脫碳策略的重要組成部分,小型模組化反應器(SMR)技術的專案開發和進步仍在繼續。
在預測期內,鈾燃料領域預計將佔據最大的市場佔有率。
預計在預測期內,鈾燃料領域將佔據最大的市場佔有率,這主要得益於其作為全球商業核能發電廠主要燃料類型的地位。全球絕大多數核能發電廠運作中使用鈾燃料,其開採、濃縮和燃料生產的供應鏈也已相當成熟。該領域受益於成熟的基礎設施、完善的法律規範以及數十年累積的運作經驗。核子反應爐延壽計畫和新建核子反應爐都需要鈾燃料進行初始裝填和持續運作。由於大多數現有核子反應爐和短期新建設都使用鈾燃料,因此該領域保持最大的市場佔有率。
預計第四代核子反應爐領域在預測期內將呈現最高的複合年成長率。
在預測期內,第四代核子反應爐預計將呈現最高的成長率,這主要得益於持續進行的研發和示範項目,這些項目旨在提升先進核子反應爐技術的安全性、效率和永續性。與現有核子反應爐相比,第四代核子反應爐的設計實現了更先進的燃料循環、更高的資源利用效率並減少了廢棄物產生。許多國家正在投資第四代核子反應爐示範計畫和調查計畫。該領域受益於人們對支持長期清潔能源和非發電應用的先進核能技術日益成長的興趣。隨著示範計畫逐步走向商業化,第四代核子反應爐正成為成長最快的技術領域。
在整個預測期內,北美預計將保持最大的市場佔有率,這得益於其已建成的核能發電廠網路、持續營運的核電廠以及不斷更新的營運許可證和電力升級項目。美國擁有全球最大的核能發電廠網路之一,並具備相當可觀的發電能力。加拿大也憑藉著正在進行的核子反應爐維修項目,在核電核能中保持著重要的地位。政府對先進核子反應爐的研發和小型模組化反應器(SMR)商業化的支持力度也不斷加強。憑藉大規模的現有核電廠和持續的營運投資,北美將繼續保持其市場主導地位。
在預測期內,亞太地區預計將呈現最高的複合年成長率,這主要得益於能源需求的快速成長、積極的核能發電擴張計劃以及中國、印度和韓國等國政府對清潔能源的承諾。中國正在推動全球規模最大的核能發電擴張計劃,眾多核子反應爐正在興建中。印度正透過國內外技術夥伴關係推動大規模核能發電發展計畫。隨著能源需求的成長,對清潔、可靠的基本負載電力需求也顯著上升。隨著核能發電裝置容量的擴張,亞太地區正經歷全球最快的市場成長。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Nuclear Power Market is accounted for $41.9 billion in 2026 and is expected to reach $56.0 billion by 2034 growing at a CAGR of 3.7% during the forecast period. Nuclear power is a low-carbon energy source generated through nuclear fission reactions that produce heat, which is converted into electricity. The market encompasses various fuel types including uranium fuel, mixed oxide (MOX) fuel, thorium fuel, TRISO fuel, HALEU fuel, and other advanced fuel options, serving reactor technologies across Generation II, Generation III, Generation III+, and Generation IV reactors. Growing global energy demand, increasing focus on decarbonization and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, energy security concerns, and technological advancements in reactor design are key drivers of market expansion across all regions.
Growing global energy demand and decarbonization goals
The increasing global energy demand coupled with ambitious decarbonization targets is a primary driver for the nuclear power market. Nuclear power provides reliable, low-carbon baseload electricity generation, complementing intermittent renewable sources including solar and wind. Many countries are including nuclear power in their clean energy strategies to meet climate goals and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The need for energy security and independence from fossil fuel imports is driving nuclear power investment. As countries seek to balance growing electricity demand with emissions reduction commitments, nuclear power offers a proven, scalable solution for clean energy generation.
High capital costs and long construction timelines
The significant capital investment required for nuclear power plants and extended construction periods represent a major restraint for the nuclear power market. Nuclear plants require billions in upfront investment with construction timelines spanning years. Financing costs during construction add substantially to total project costs. Cost overruns and schedule delays have affected many recent projects, creating financial risk. Limited availability of specialized construction expertise and components affects project feasibility. These cost and timeline challenges may limit nuclear power expansion, particularly in countries with constrained capital availability or investor caution.
Advancements in small modular reactor technology
The development of small modular reactors (SMRs) presents significant opportunities for nuclear power market expansion. SMRs offer lower upfront capital costs, shorter construction timelines, and factory fabrication capabilities compared to large reactors. SMRs can be deployed in smaller grids and remote locations, expanding nuclear power accessibility. Standardized designs and modular construction reduce project risk. Growing investor interest and government support for SMR development are accelerating technology commercialization. As SMRs gain regulatory approval and enter commercial service, new nuclear power applications and expanded market reach capture growing share.
Competition from low-cost renewables and energy storage
The dramatic cost reductions in renewable energy technologies and advancing energy storage solutions pose significant threats to nuclear power market growth. Solar and wind energy have become cost-competitive with conventional generation in many markets. Battery storage is improving capacity and cost, addressing intermittency challenges. The rapid deployment speed of renewable projects offers advantages over long nuclear construction timelines. Policy support may shift toward lower-cost renewable solutions. This competition may limit nuclear power investment, particularly in markets with abundant renewable resources and favorable storage economics.
The COVID-19 pandemic had a mixed impact on the nuclear power market. Nuclear plants continued operations as essential infrastructure during lockdowns. Construction projects experienced delays due to workforce restrictions, supply chain interruptions, and logistics challenges. New project planning and investment decisions were affected by economic uncertainty. However, the pandemic reinforced focus on clean energy and energy security, with nuclear power included in some government recovery packages. Post-pandemic, nuclear power remains part of decarbonization strategies, with continued project development and SMR technology advancement.
The Uranium Fuel segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The Uranium Fuel segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period, driven by its position as the established, dominant fuel type for commercial nuclear power reactors globally. Uranium fuel is used in the vast majority of operating nuclear reactors worldwide, with well-established mining, enrichment, and fuel fabrication supply chains. The segment benefits from mature infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, and operational experience accumulated over decades. Extended reactor life programs and new reactor construction require uranium fuel for initial loading and ongoing operations. With the existing reactor fleet and near-term new builds predominantly using uranium fuel, this segment maintains the largest market share.
The Generation IV Reactors segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the Generation IV Reactors segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate, fueled by ongoing research, development, and demonstration projects for advanced reactor technologies offering enhanced safety, efficiency, and sustainability. Generation IV reactors include designs with advanced fuel cycles, improved resource utilization, and reduced waste generation compared to current reactors. Several countries are investing in Generation IV demonstration projects and research programs. The segment benefits from growing interest in advanced nuclear technologies to support long-term clean energy and non-power applications. As demonstration projects advance toward commercialization, Generation IV reactors emerge as the fastest-growing technology segment.
During the forecast period, the North America region is expected to hold the largest market share, supported by an established nuclear power fleet, continued plant operations, and ongoing license renewals and uprates. The United States operates the largest nuclear power fleet globally, with significant generation capacity. Canada maintains a substantial nuclear power presence with ongoing reactor refurbishment programs. Government support for advanced reactor development and SMR commercialization is strengthening. With a large existing fleet and continued operating investment, North America maintains its dominant market position.
Over the forecast period, the Asia-Pacific region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR, driven by rapid energy demand growth, aggressive nuclear power expansion programs, and government commitments to clean energy in countries including China, India, and South Korea. China is undertaking the largest nuclear power expansion program globally, with many reactors under construction. India has significant nuclear power development plans with domestic and international technology partnerships. Growing energy requirements create substantial demand for clean, reliable baseload power. As nuclear power capacity expands, Asia Pacific delivers the fastest market growth globally.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Nuclear Power Market include EDF Group, Westinghouse Electric Company LLC, Framatome, GE Vernova, Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co., Ltd., Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO), Rosatom State Atomic Energy Corporation, China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN), Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd., Hitachi, Ltd., BWX Technologies, Inc., Rolls-Royce SMR Limited, NuScale Power Corporation, TerraPower, LLC, X-energy, LLC, Holtec International, and Orano SA.
In July 2026, the UK Government granted a 20-year lifetime extension to EDF's Sizewell B nuclear power station in Suffolk, ensuring the plant continues operating through 2055 under a guaranteed strike price framework to support Britain's growing low-carbon power needs.
In June 2026, GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy and Canadian manufacturer Velan expanded their strategic partnership to supply specialized isolation valves for European BWRX-300 small modular reactor (SMR) deployments, leveraging manufacturing experience gained at Ontario Power Generation's Darlington site.
In May 2026, NuScale Power and its global strategic partner ENTRA1 Energy reported advancing deployment frameworks with the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) to supply Small Modular Reactors for regional power needs.
In October 2025, Westinghouse Electric Company, alongside Brookfield Asset Management and Cameco, entered into an historic $80 billion strategic partnership with the U.S. Government to construct large-scale AP1000 and AP300 nuclear reactors, designed to supply power for artificial intelligence data centers and industrial electrification.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Rest of the World (RoW) Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.