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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
2059090
2034年金融服務量子運算市場預測:按交付方式、部署方式、技術、金融機構類型、應用、最終用戶和地區分類的全球分析Quantum Computing in Financial Services Market Forecasts to 2034 - Global Analysis By Offering (Hardware, Software, and Services), Deployment Mode, Technology, Financial Institution Type, Application, End User and By Geography |
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根據 Stratistics MRC 的數據,預計到 2026 年,全球金融服務領域的量子計算市場規模將達到 12 億美元,到 2034 年將達到 187 億美元,預測期內的複合年成長率將達到 41.2%。
金融服務領域的量子運算是指應用量子處理器、演算法和模擬軟體等量子運算技術來解決超越傳統電腦處理能力的複雜金融問題。透過利用疊加和量子糾纏等量子現象同時處理大量資料集,它可以顯著提升投資組合最佳化、風險建模、密碼學、詐欺檢測和高頻交易等領域的處理速度。
對高階風險建模和投資組合最佳化的需求激增
由於市場波動、監管要求和多元資產敞口,金融機構面臨日益複雜的風險環境。傳統的運算架構難以即時執行蒙特卡羅模擬或大規模衍生性商品投資組合的壓力測試。量子演算法能夠以指數級的速度完成這些任務,使銀行和資產管理公司能夠同時評估數千種風險情境。投資銀行正在積極試點量子解決方案,以在精準風險分析方面獲得競爭優勢,這直接推動了量子技術在全球金融服務生態系統中的應用,並為量子基礎設施的大量資本投入提供了合理的依據。
目前的量子硬體存在技術不成熟和錯誤率高的問題。
目前的量子處理器仍存在雜訊和退相干問題,限制了其在實際金融應用中的運算可靠性。由於缺乏容錯量子電腦,大多數部署仍處於混合或實驗階段,實際應用效果有限。此外,金融監管機構缺乏檢驗量子技術輸出的標準化框架,使得法規核准流程更加複雜。低溫冷卻基礎設施的高成本、專業人員的短缺以及與現有IT系統缺乏互通性,進一步限制了銀行、保險公司和資本市場機構的商業部署進度。
透過雲端平台擴展「量子即服務」服務
領先的超大規模資料中心業者和專業量子運算供應商正透過基於雲端的量子運算平台普及量子運算,使金融機構無需進行大量硬體投資即可進行相關實驗。這種「量子即服務」模式顯著降低了准入門檻,使中型銀行、金融科技公司和保險公司能夠將量子演算法整合到混合工作流程中。隨著平台日趨成熟和誤差緩解技術的進步,基於雲端的量子運算有望在詐欺偵測、信用評分和衍生性商品定價等領域,在新興市場和成熟市場中廣泛應用。
密碼學漏洞與後量子安全風險
量子運算的進步對金融網路中廣泛使用的現有加密標準構成了威脅。能夠破解RSA和橢圓曲線密碼的、具備密碼學可行性的量子電腦的出現,對交易安全和資料保密性構成了生存威脅。監管機構開始強制要求向後量子密碼學過渡,迫使金融機構在現有系統變得脆弱之前進行投資。這種既要享受量子技術帶來的好處,又要應對其威脅的雙重壓力,造成了營運複雜性、合規成本和過渡風險,可能會加劇資源緊張並延緩商業部署。
新冠疫情初期,由於金融機構優先考慮維持流動性和業務連續性,金融服務領域對量子運算的投資有所放緩。然而,這場危機凸顯了傳統風險模型的脆弱性,這些模型未能考慮到「黑天鵝」事件,加速了人們對利用量子技術進行模擬和壓力測試的興趣。隨著疫情後的經濟復甦,研發預算已重新分配給量子試點項目,各國央行和主要金融集團也擴大資助合作量子研究項目和Hackathon,以確保分析基礎設施的未來潛力。
在預測期內,硬體產業預計將佔據最大的市場佔有率。
預計在預測期內,硬體領域將佔據最大的市場佔有率,這主要得益於量子處理器、低溫系統和量子加速器所需的大量資本投資。金融機構和技術供應商投資建造自有量子基礎設施,推動了對實體硬體組件的採購。能夠處理金融工作負載的量子處理器的複雜性和稀缺性將維持其高價位,從而鞏固硬體在整個預測期內作為最有價值細分市場的地位。
預計在預測期內,軟體領域將呈現最高的複合年成長率。
在預測期內,軟體領域預計將呈現最高的成長率,這主要得益於量子演算法、最佳化平台以及針對金融應用最佳化的量子機器學習工具的快速發展。隨著硬體的成熟和雲端存取的擴展,金融機構正優先投資軟體,以便即時從量子資源中獲取價值。不斷擴充的、針對衍生性商品定價、詐欺分析和投資組合建構等領域的量子軟體庫,正加速全球銀行、金融科技公司和資產管理公司對這些軟體的採用。
在預測期內,北美預計將佔據最大的市場佔有率。這主要歸功於全球投資銀行、科技巨頭和專注於量子技術的新創公司在美國的集中。美國國防高級研究計劃局 (DARPA) 和國家科學基金會(NSF) 透過試驗計畫項目提供的巨額聯邦資金,以及摩根大通、高盛和領先的雲端服務提供商積極開展的試點項目,使該地區在商業化方面處於領先地位。成熟的金融生態系統和強大的創業投資環境進一步鞏固了北美的領先地位。
在預測期內,亞太地區預計將呈現最高的複合年成長率,這主要得益於中國、日本、韓國和印度等國政府主導的積極量子舉措。中國的國家量子戰略、日本經濟產業省支持的量子計畫以及印度的國家量子任務都在量子基礎設施建設方面投入了數十億美元。該地區金融業的快速數字化、金融科技活動的活性化以及對人工智慧整合金融解決方案不斷成長的需求,都為銀行業、資本市場和保險業採用量子技術創造了有利條件。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Quantum Computing in Financial Services Market is accounted for $1.2 billion in 2026 and is expected to reach $18.7 billion by 2034, growing at a CAGR of 41.2% during the forecast period. Quantum Computing in Financial Services refers to the application of quantum computational technologies including quantum processors, algorithms, and simulation software to solve complex financial problems that exceed the capacity of classical computers. It enables exponential speedups in portfolio optimization, risk modeling, cryptography, fraud detection, and high-frequency trading, leveraging quantum phenomena such as superposition and entanglement to process vast datasets simultaneously.
Surging demand for advanced risk modelling and portfolio optimization
Financial institutions face increasingly complex risk environments driven by volatile markets, regulatory mandates, and multi-asset exposure. Classical computing architectures struggle to run Monte Carlo simulations or stress-test large derivative portfolios in real time. Quantum algorithms offer exponential acceleration for such tasks, enabling banks and asset managers to evaluate thousands of risk scenarios simultaneously. Investment banks are actively piloting quantum solutions to gain a competitive edge in precision risk analytics, directly fuelling adoption across the global financial services ecosystem and justifying significant capital allocation toward quantum infrastructure.
Technological immaturity and high error rates in current quantum hardware
Present-day quantum processors remain noisy and prone to decoherence, limiting computational reliability for production-grade financial applications. The absence of fault-tolerant quantum computers means that most deployments are hybrid or experimental, with limited practical output. Financial regulators also lack standardized frameworks for validating quantum-derived outputs, making regulatory approval complex. The high cost of cryogenic cooling infrastructure, specialized talent scarcity, and lack of interoperability with existing IT systems further constrain commercial deployment timelines across banks, insurers, and capital markets firms.
Expansion of quantum-as-a-service offerings via cloud platforms
Leading hyperscalers and dedicated quantum vendors are democratizing access through cloud-based quantum computing platforms, enabling financial institutions to experiment without capital-intensive hardware investments. This quantum-as-a-service model reduces the barrier to entry significantly, allowing mid-tier banks, FinTechs, and insurance firms to integrate quantum algorithms into hybrid workflows. As platform maturity improves and error mitigation techniques advance, cloud-based quantum access is positioned to drive mainstream adoption in fraud detection, credit scoring, and derivative pricing across emerging and developed markets.
Cryptographic vulnerabilities and post-quantum security risks
Quantum computing advances simultaneously threaten existing encryption standards widely used across financial networks. The prospect of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer capable of breaking RSA or elliptic curve encryption poses an existential risk to transaction security and data confidentiality. Regulatory bodies are beginning to mandate post-quantum cryptographic transitions, compelling financial institutions to invest in migration efforts before current systems become vulnerable. This dual pressure adopting quantum benefits while mitigating quantum threats introduces operational complexity, compliance costs, and transition risks that could strain resources and slow commercial deployments.
The COVID-19 pandemic initially slowed quantum computing investments in financial services as institutions prioritized liquidity preservation and operational continuity. However, the crisis underscored vulnerabilities in traditional risk models that failed to account for black-swan scenarios, accelerating interest in quantum-enhanced simulation and stress testing capabilities. Post-pandemic recovery has channelled renewed R&D budgets toward quantum pilots, with central banks and leading financial groups increasingly funding quantum research collaborations and hackathons to future-proof their analytical infrastructure.
The hardware segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The hardware segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period, driven by substantial capital outlays required for quantum processors, cryogenic systems, and quantum accelerators. Financial institutions and technology providers investing in proprietary quantum infrastructure are driving procurement of physical hardware components. The complexity and scarcity of quantum processors with sufficient qubit counts for financial workloads sustain premium pricing, consolidating hardware as the highest-value segment throughout the forecast period.
The software segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the software segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate, driven by rapid advances in quantum algorithms, optimization platforms, and quantum machine learning tools tailored for financial applications. As hardware matures and cloud access expands, financial institutions are prioritizing software investments to extract immediate value from quantum resources. The growing library of domain-specific quantum software for derivatives pricing, fraud analytics, and portfolio construction is accelerating adoption across banks, FinTechs, and asset managers globally.
During the forecast period, the North America region is expected to hold the largest market share, attributable to the concentration of global investment banks, technology giants, and quantum-focused startups in the United States. Substantial federal funding through DARPA and NSF quantum programs, combined with active pilot programs at JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and major cloud providers, positions the region at the forefront of commercialization. A mature financial ecosystem and robust venture capital landscape further reinforce North America's leadership.
Over the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR, propelled by aggressive government quantum initiatives in China, Japan, South Korea, and India. China's national quantum strategy, Japan's METI-backed quantum programs, and India's National Quantum Mission are directing billions toward quantum infrastructure. The region's rapidly digitizing financial sector, rising FinTech activity, and growing appetite for AI-integrated financial solutions create fertile conditions for quantum adoption across banking, capital markets, and insurance segments.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Quantum Computing in Financial Services Market include IBM, Google, Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, Intel Corporation, D-Wave Quantum Inc., IonQ, Rigetti Computing, Quantinuum, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs, Accenture, Fujitsu, Tencent Holdings, and QC Ware.
In March 2025, IBM IBM expanded its Quantum Network partnership with a consortium of leading European banks, launching a dedicated quantum finance accelerator program to develop production-ready quantum algorithms for credit risk and portfolio hedging applications.
In January 2025, IonQ IonQ announced a strategic partnership with a major U.S. financial institution to co-develop trapped-ion quantum algorithms for real-time fraud detection and high-frequency trading optimization, with initial cloud deployment expected within the fiscal year.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Rest of the World (RoW) are also represented in the same manner as above.