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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
2024104
都市區最後一公里配送市場預測至2034年-按服務類型、配送方式、車輛類型、技術、目的地、應用和區域分類的全球分析Urban Last-Mile Delivery Market Forecasts to 2034 - Global Analysis By Service Type, Delivery Mode, Vehicle Type, Technology, Destination, Application and By Geography |
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根據 Stratistics MRC 的數據,預計到 2026 年,全球都市區最後一公里配送市場規模將達到 1,950 億美元,並在預測期內以 12.6% 的複合年成長率成長,到 2034 年將達到 5,050 億美元。
都市區最後一公里配送是配送流程的最後階段,它將貨物直接從附近的履約中心或零售店運送至都市區客戶手中。它專注於短距離、快速、高效的配送,並採用多種方式,包括自行車、貨車、電動車或宅配。這種模式在支援電子商務和按需服務方面發揮著至關重要的作用,它能夠加快人口密集都市區的配送速度,並提高客戶滿意度。
電子商務和按需零售的快速擴張
消費者對配送速度、靈活性和透明度的要求日益提高,包括當日達和即時送達。這種壓力迫使零售商和物流供應商持續最佳化其都市區配送網路。智慧型手機和數位支付系統的普及使線上訂購變得便捷,進一步增加了小包裹處理量。此外,訂閱模式和忠誠度計畫鼓勵重複購買,並創造了穩定的配送需求。隨著實體店整合數位管道,對高效城市物流的需求不斷成長,迫使供應商實施複雜的路線規劃和微型倉儲策略以保持競爭力。
高昂的營運成本和都市區堵塞
在人口密集的城市地區進行最後一公里配送業務會產生巨大的成本,包括燃油、人事費用、車輛維護和停車罰款。交通擁擠導致配送路線延長、配送時間縮短,並加劇駕駛人疲勞,直接影響盈利。不斷上漲的燃油價格和工資壓力進一步擠壓了物流公司本已微薄的利潤空間。此外,與高密度主幹道相比,郊區較低的配送密度造成了效率低下。退回未送達包裹和首次配送失敗的相關成本也增加了額外的財務負擔。如果不增加對路線最佳化和替代車輛的投資,這些營運挑戰將限制擴充性,並阻礙營運商提供永續的城市配送服務。
引入微型交通工具和自動駕駛車輛
對永續且經濟高效的城市物流日益成長的需求,為電動貨運自行車和自動配送機器人等微型出行解決方案創造了巨大的發展機會。這些車輛比傳統貨車更能有效率地穿梭於擁擠的道路,從而減少排放氣體和停車難題。電動摩托車和小型電動車尤其適合在人流量大的區域進行短程、高頻次的配送。目前,無人機和行人用機器人正在試行用於小型包裹和食品的即時配送。政府對綠色物流和低排放區的獎勵進一步推動了這些技術的普及。科技Start-Ups與成熟物流公司之間的合作正在加速這些技術的推廣應用,並建構一個高效、低成本的「最後一公里」都市區物流新生態系統。
供應鏈波動和人手不足
都市區的「最後一公里」配送面臨持續不斷的威脅,包括影響車輛零件、燃料和包裝材料的供應鏈中斷。節日等尖峰時段期的需求激增會加劇運力緊張,並暴露緊急時應對計畫的不足。尤其值得注意的是,願意在惡劣的城市環境中工作的司機短缺會導致服務延誤和薪資上漲。由於交通擁擠帶來的身體壓力和疲勞,司機離職率居高不下。此外,堵塞費和強制性零排放區等監管變化也會大幅增加合規成本。如果沒有健全的人力資源策略和多元化的車隊,企業在競爭激烈的城市市場中將面臨服務中斷、客戶流失和聲譽受損的風險。
新冠疫情的影響
疫情期間,封鎖措施迫使消費者完全轉向線上訂購生活必需品和零售商品,都市區最後一公里配送的需求因此急劇成長。非接觸式配送成為標準,推動了數位支付和配送確認技術的快速普及。物流業者面臨嚴重的運能限制,在實施安全措施的同時積極招募人員。同時,汽車零件和電子產品的供應鏈出現延誤,阻礙了企業擴大車隊規模的計畫。這場危機永久提高了消費者對速度和透明度的期望。疫情後,混合辦公模式維持了白天住宅配送量。如今,企業正優先建立具有彈性和靈活性的網路,配備分散式微型倉配中心和多樣化的車隊。
在預測期內,B2C(企業對消費者)細分市場預計將佔據最大的市場佔有率。
受直接面對消費者(D2C)的電子商務、線上雜貨店和零售平台的爆炸性成長推動,B2C領域預計將佔據最大的市場佔有率。都市區消費者要求線上商家提供快速且可追蹤的配送服務,這導致每日小包裹量龐大。 B2C配送通常包含數量較少、頻率較高的訂單,因此需要靈活的配送路線和時段選擇。物流供應商已在消費者應用程式和即時通知方面投入巨資,以提升客戶體驗。社群電商和直播帶貨的興起進一步推動了B2C配送量的成長。
在預測期內,即時配送細分市場預計將呈現最高的複合年成長率。
在預測期內,受消費者對一小時內送達的食品雜貨、餐食和日用品的需求驅動,即時配送領域預計將呈現最高的成長率。位於城市地區的暗店和微型倉配中心為這種超快速服務模式提供了支援。快速電商平台之間的激烈競爭正在推動對預測性庫存管理和批量處理演算法的技術投資。即時配送依賴零工經濟司機,他們使用摩托車來確保最高的配送速度和靈活性。
在預測期內,亞太地區預計將佔據最大的市場佔有率。這主要得益於中國、印度和東南亞龐大的城市人口、快速的數位化進程以及較高的電子商務滲透率。特大城市的包裹量龐大,為物流供應商帶來了規模經濟效益。本地超級應用程式和平台正在建立整合支付、追蹤和退貨功能的複雜末端配送網路。政府對智慧城市建設的支持以及電動車的推廣,進一步加速了基礎建設。此外,該地區也是配送車輛和無人機的製造地,這有助於降低設備成本。
在預測期內,北美預計將呈現最高的複合年成長率,這主要得益於強勁的消費支出、先進的物流技術以及自動駕駛配送解決方案的快速普及。美國和加拿大在主要都會區主導了步行機器人、送貨無人機和電動貨車的試點計畫。法律規範也在不斷發展,以適應微型出行和低速自動駕駛車輛的發展。大型零售商和物流公司正在大力投資微型倉配中心和以人工智慧為基礎的路線最佳化軟體。當日達和時限配送的興起正在加速車輛現代化進程。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Urban Last-Mile Delivery Market is accounted for $195.0 billion in 2026 and is expected to reach $505.0 billion by 2034 growing at a CAGR of 12.6% during the forecast period. Urban last-mile delivery is the concluding phase of the delivery process in which products are transported from nearby fulfillment centers or retail locations directly to customers in city environments. It emphasizes quick and efficient transportation across short distances using various delivery methods such as bikes, vans, electric vehicles, or couriers. The model plays a vital role in supporting e-commerce and on-demand services by enabling faster deliveries and improving customer satisfaction in highly populated urban regions.
Rapid expansion of e-commerce and on-demand retail
Consumers increasingly expect faster, flexible, and transparent delivery options, including same-day and instant services. This pressure forces retailers and logistics providers to optimize their urban distribution networks continuously. The proliferation of smartphones and digital payment systems has made online ordering seamless, further boosting parcel volumes. Moreover, subscription-based models and loyalty programs encourage repeat purchases, creating consistent delivery demand. As brick-and-mortar stores integrate digital channels, the need for efficient urban logistics intensifies, pushing providers to adopt advanced routing and micro-warehousing strategies to remain competitive.
High operational costs and urban congestion
Operating last-mile delivery in dense city centers involves significant expenses related to fuel, labor, vehicle maintenance, and parking penalties. Traffic congestion leads to longer routes, reduced delivery windows, and increased driver fatigue, directly impacting profitability. Rising fuel prices and wage pressures further squeeze narrow margins for logistics companies. Additionally, low delivery density in suburban areas compared to high-density corridors creates inefficiencies. The cost of returning undelivered parcels or failed first-time attempts adds another financial burden. Without significant investment in route optimization and alternative vehicle types, these operational challenges limit scalability and prevent providers from offering affordable, sustainable urban delivery services.
Adoption of micro-mobility and autonomous vehicles
The growing need for sustainable and cost-effective urban logistics opens significant opportunities for micro-mobility solutions like e-cargo bikes and autonomous delivery robots. These vehicles navigate congested streets more efficiently than traditional vans, reducing emissions and parking issues. Electric two-wheelers and light electric vehicles are particularly suited for short-distance, high-frequency deliveries in pedestrian-heavy zones. Autonomous drones and sidewalk robots are being tested for instant delivery of small parcels and food orders. Government incentives for green logistics and low-emission zones further encourage adoption. Partnerships between tech startups and established carriers are accelerating deployment, creating a new ecosystem for efficient, low-cost urban last-mile operations.
Supply chain volatility and labor shortages
Urban last-mile delivery faces persistent threats from supply chain disruptions affecting vehicle parts, fuel availability, and packaging materials. Seasonal demand spikes, such as holiday peaks, strain capacity and expose weaknesses in contingency planning. Labor shortages, particularly for drivers willing to work in high-pressure urban conditions, lead to service delays and increased wages. Driver turnover remains high due to physical demands and traffic stress. Additionally, regulatory changes like congestion pricing or zero-emission zone mandates can suddenly increase compliance costs. Without resilient workforce strategies and diversified vehicle fleets, companies risk service failures, customer churn, and reputational damage in competitive urban markets.
Covid-19 Impact
The pandemic dramatically accelerated urban last-mile delivery demand as lockdowns forced consumers to shift entirely to online ordering for essentials and retail. Contactless delivery became standard, pushing rapid adoption of digital payment and proof-of-delivery technologies. Logistics providers faced severe capacity constraints and hired aggressively while implementing safety protocols. Simultaneously, supply chains for vehicle parts and electronics faced delays, disrupting fleet expansion plans. The crisis permanently raised consumer expectations for speed and transparency. Post-pandemic, hybrid work models have sustained daytime residential delivery volumes. Companies now prioritize resilient, flexible networks with distributed micro-fulfillment centers and diversified vehicle fleets.
The business-to-consumer (B2C) segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The B2C segment is expected to account for the largest market share, driven by the explosive growth of direct-to-consumer e-commerce, online grocery, and retail platforms. Urban consumers demand rapid, trackable deliveries from web-based merchants, creating massive daily parcel volumes. B2C shipments typically involve smaller, more frequent orders requiring flexible routing and time-definite windows. Logistics providers have invested heavily in consumer-facing apps and real-time notifications to enhance experience. The rise of social commerce and livestream selling further fuels B2C volumes.
The instant delivery segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the instant delivery segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate, fueled by consumer demand for groceries, meals, and convenience items in under one hour. Dark stores and micro-fulfillment centers located within city centers enable this ultra-fast service model. Aggressive competition among quick-commerce platforms is driving technological investments in predictive stocking and batching algorithms. Instant delivery relies on gig-economy drivers using two-wheelers for maximum speed and maneuverability.
During the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is expected to hold the largest market share, driven by massive urban populations, rapid digitalization, and high e-commerce penetration in China, India, and Southeast Asia. Mega-cities generate dense delivery volumes, enabling economies of scale for logistics providers. Local super-apps and platforms have built sophisticated last-mile networks integrating payments, tracking, and returns. Government support for smart city initiatives and electric vehicle adoption further accelerates infrastructure development. The region is also a manufacturing hub for delivery vehicles and drones, lowering equipment costs.
Over the forecast period, the North America region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR, supported by strong consumer spending, advanced logistics technology, and rapid adoption of autonomous delivery solutions. The U.S. and Canada are leading trials of sidewalk robots, delivery drones, and electric cargo vans in major metropolitan areas. Regulatory frameworks are evolving to accommodate micro-mobility and low-speed autonomous vehicles. Major retailers and logistics firms are investing heavily in micro-fulfillment centers and AI-based routing software. The shift toward same-day and scheduled delivery windows is accelerating fleet modernization.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Urban Last-Mile Delivery Market include United Parcel Service, FedEx Corporation, DHL Group, Amazon Logistics, Kuehne + Nagel, DB Schenker, CEVA Logistics, GEODIS, XPO, Inc., DSV A/S, Nippon Express, ZTO Express, SF Express, YTO Express, J.B. Hunt Transport Services.
In March 2026, FedEx Corp. announced the rollout of FedEx SameDay(R) Local, a delivery offering designed to enable its customers to meet rising consumer expectations for flexibility, control, and convenience while balancing their cost to serve.
In March 2026, DHL Supply Chain, and iglo Deutschland are extending their long-standing partnership for an additional five years. As a result, DHL will continue to manage the central frozen food warehouse and in-plant logistics at the iglo facility in Reken (Westphalia), as well as all transport logistics - a key factor in ensuring a reliable and stable supply of frozen products to retailers and consumers across Germany.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Rest of the World (RoW) are also represented in the same manner as above.