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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
2021495
攜帶式城市核能解決方案市場預測至2034年—按核子反應爐類型、功率、部署模式、應用、最終用戶和地區分類的全球分析Portable Urban Nuclear Solutions Market Forecasts to 2034 - Global Analysis By Reactor Type, Power Output, Deployment Mode, Application, End User, and By Geography |
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根據 Stratistics MRC 的數據,預計到 2026 年,全球城市可攜式核能解決方案市場規模將達到 5 億美元,並在預測期內以 14.7% 的複合年成長率成長,到 2034 年將達到 15 億美元。
城市可攜式核能解決方案是指緊湊型、工廠預製反應器系統,專為都市區和郊區環境設計,無需傳統大型核能發電廠所需的大片土地或客製化工程。這些系統可提供可靠的低碳電力、區域供熱和工業製程熱。其設計方案包括小型模組化反應器、微型反應器、可移動核能發電機組、快中子反應器系統、高溫反應爐和熔鹽反應器。透過利用被動安全系統、標準化工廠化生產和簡化的操作流程,這些解決方案能夠部署在靠近電力和供熱需求中心的密集人口區域。
都市區對清潔能源安全的需求
都市區對清潔能源安全的需求正強勁推動可攜式投資攜帶式核能解決方案。這些方案能夠為人口稠密地區提供持續、不受天氣影響的低碳電力,且避免了可再生能源固有的供應不穩定性。隨著核能在深化脫碳進程中的作用日益受到全球淨零排放政策框架的認可,在福島核事故後停滯不前的小型核子反應爐研發項目正獲得政治和監管支持,並逐漸恢復。美國能源局的先進核子反應爐示範項目、英國的小型模組化反應器(SMR)項目以及歐洲的多個先進核能舉措,其研發合約帶來的收益正支持可攜式核能技術研發公司業務永續營運,同時為其獲得監管許可做好準備。
監管許可的複雜性和所需時間
可攜式城市核能解決方案商業化的最大障礙在於其複雜的許可流程和長達數年的核准流程。這是因為包括美國美國核能管理委員會(NRC)、英國核能管理署(ONR)以及歐洲各國監管機構在內的核能安機構,缺乏專門針對小型模組化反應器設計的成熟許可框架,而小型模組化反應器的設計與傳統的大型輕水反應器有著本質區別。新的燃料配置、被動安全系統設計以及工廠製造中的品質保證方法,都需要全新的監管技術審查程序,而這些程序的進展速度遠低於開發商的商業化預期。此外,都市區的許可要求還增加了與當地監管機構協調的額外負擔,這也超出了標準核能發電廠的位置流程。
部署到偏遠和孤立的電網
將攜帶式核能解決方案部署到偏遠社區和孤立電網,為可攜式核能解決方案提供了一條切實可行的短期商業化路徑。在柴油燃料供應物流、高昂的電力成本和電網擴建不切實際的情況下,安裝小型核子反應爐成為極具經濟吸引力的選擇。阿拉斯加原住民社區、加拿大偏遠礦區、太平洋島國和北極研究基地是攜帶式核能早期部署市場,在這些地區,以目前的燃料成本和物流水平,可攜式核能比現有的柴油發電更具經濟優勢。美國國防部及其盟國對前線作戰基地的電力供應需求,促使政府資助開發小型可攜式核子反應爐,目標是1-10兆瓦的軍用微型核子反應爐。
對都市區位置的社會接受度與反對度
公眾對都市區的接受度和位置是攜帶式在核能核能發電廠方面要求相對容易。都市區和郊區社區出於對輻射風險、廢棄物管理以及與核能事故相關的擔憂而產生的反對,造成了許可核准和政治阻力,可能阻礙攜帶式核能解決方案在人口稠密地區的部署,而這些地區恰恰是攜帶式核能解決方案能夠最大程度保障能源安全和電網脫碳的最佳場所。重大核能事故後持續存在的負面公眾情緒仍在影響政治格局,使都市區核能設施位置的授權和核准決策更加複雜。
新冠疫情導致供應鏈延誤,政府在優先緊急應變情況期間參與度降低,從而擾亂了可攜式核能解決方案的研發計劃。疫情後,地緣政治動盪引發的石化燃料價格波動加劇了人們對能源安全的擔憂,這顯著增強了投資攜帶式核能的政策合理性,因為攜帶式核能是一種可靠、低碳且不易受燃料價格波動影響的能源來源。美國、英國和歐盟在疫情期間推出的清潔能源刺激投資方案中包含了對先進核能研發的資金支持,這有助於多家攜帶式核能技術研發公司保持商業開發項目的勢頭。
在預測期內,高溫反應爐領域預計將佔據最大的市場佔有率。
預計在預測期內,高溫反應爐)將佔據最大的市場佔有率。這主要歸功於其高效能發電和高溫製程熱供應能力,出口溫度高達700–950°C,適用於氫氣製造、工業製程熱和區域供熱等應用。這將顯著拓展目標能源服務市場,使其不再局限於僅供電的核子反應爐配置。 HTGR採用石墨慢化和氦氣冷卻設計,其被動安全特性以及燃料球固有的安全運作限制,使其在獲得監管部門核准方面具有優勢。來自中國高溫氣冷堆-PM商業示範裝置和日本高溫氣冷堆研究計畫的運作數據,正為加速國際監管核准提供必要資訊。
在預測期內,10 MW 以下的細分市場預計將呈現最高的複合年成長率。
在預測期內,10兆瓦以下微型反應器市場預計將呈現最高成長率,這主要得益於美國國防部「佩勒計畫」(Project Pelle)微型反應器研發項目、部署到偏遠社區的經濟效益,以及礦工們在偏遠礦區尋求柴油燃料替代方案的日益成長的需求。 1-10兆瓦範圍內的微型反應器設計可以自行製造並透過卡車運輸,從而顯著降低現場施工的複雜性,並使其能夠在大型核子反應爐系統無法到達的地區進行部署。包括Oklo公司、X-energy公司和Ultra Safe Nuclear公司在內的多家商業微型反應器開發商正在推進向美國美國核能管理委員會(NRC)提交的預申請審查流程,這為它們在不久的將來進行首次商業部署做好了監管準備。
在預測期內,北美預計將佔據最大的市場佔有率。這主要歸功於美國擁有最先進的小型模組化反應器(SMR)和微型反應器研發項目,美國能源局先進反應器示範項目(ARMP)的大量資金支持了商業開發商的技術成熟度,以及美國核管理委員會(NRC)的先進反應器許可工作建立了一個為全球監管樹立先例的框架。加拿大核能安委員會的SMR許可準備項目以及多家加拿大電力公司所進行的SMR採購評估也進一步鞏固了北美的市場領導地位。美國國防部微型反應器採購計畫為推動攜帶式核能技術商業化的技術開發商提供了收入來源。
在預測期內,歐洲地區預計將呈現最高的複合年成長率。促成這一結果的因素包括:勞斯萊斯小型模組化反應器(SMR)在英國SMR項目框架下,正朝著完成總體設計評估的方向穩步邁進;石化燃料燃料供應中斷後,歐洲能源安全需求推動了對核能投資的政治支持;以及多個東歐歐盟成員國啟動了SMR部署可行性調查計畫。波蘭、捷克、羅馬尼亞和荷蘭正在積極評估SMR的部署,將其納入國家能源安全和脫碳戰略。歐盟委員會將核能歸類為“過渡性永續活動”,這使得歐盟成員國能夠利用綠色金融支持SMR計畫開發。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Portable Urban Nuclear Solutions Market is accounted for $0.5 billion in 2026 and is expected to reach $1.5 billion by 2034 growing at a CAGR of 14.7% during the forecast period. Portable urban nuclear solutions refer to compact, factory-fabricated nuclear reactor systems designed for deployment in urban and peri-urban environments to provide reliable, low-carbon electricity, district heating, and industrial process heat without the large land footprint and bespoke engineering requirements of conventional utility-scale nuclear power plants. They encompass small modular reactors, microreactors, transportable nuclear power units, fast neutron reactor systems, high-temperature gas reactors, and molten salt reactor designs that utilize passive safety systems, standardized factory construction, and simplified operating procedures to enable deployment in populated areas with proximity to electricity and heat demand centers.
Urban Clean Energy Security Demand
Urban clean energy security demands are compelling government and utility investment in portable nuclear solutions that provide continuous, weather-independent low-carbon electricity to dense population centers without intermittency limitations of renewable alternatives. Growing recognition of nuclear energy's role in deep decarbonization by national net-zero policy frameworks is restoring political and regulatory support for compact reactor development programs that were dormant during post-Fukushima review periods. U.S. Department of Energy Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program, UK Small Modular Reactor program, and multiple European advanced nuclear initiative investments are generating development contract revenues that are sustaining portable nuclear technology developer viability while advancing regulatory licensing readiness.
Regulatory Licensing Complexity and Duration
Regulatory licensing complexity and multi-year approval timelines represent the most significant commercialization barrier for portable urban nuclear solutions, as nuclear safety authorities including the U.S. NRC, UK ONR, and European national regulators lack established licensing frameworks specifically designed for compact modular reactor designs that differ fundamentally from reviewed large light-water reactor precedents. Novel fuel configurations, passive safety system designs, and factory fabrication quality assurance approaches require entirely new regulatory technical review programs that are progressing slowly relative to developer commercialization ambitions. Urban siting licensing requirements create additional local regulatory coordination burdens beyond standard nuclear plant siting reviews.
Remote and Islanded Grid Deployments
Remote community and islanded grid deployment opportunities represent an accessible near-term commercial pathway for portable nuclear solutions where diesel fuel supply logistics, high electricity costs, and grid extension impracticality create compelling economic cases for compact reactor installations. Alaska Native communities, Canadian remote mining operations, Pacific island nations, and Arctic research stations represent initial deployment markets where portable nuclear economics compare favorably to incumbent diesel generation at current fuel cost and logistics levels. Defense forward operating base power supply requirements from the U.S. Department of Defense and allied military organizations are generating funded development contracts for small transportable reactor designs targeting 1-10 MW military microreactor capability.
Public Acceptance and Urban Siting Opposition
Public acceptance challenges and urban siting opposition represent fundamental deployment barriers for portable nuclear solutions that distinguish them from conventional utility-scale nuclear plants sited in remote low-population areas where community engagement requirements are more manageable. Urban and suburban community opposition driven by radiation risk perception, waste management concerns, and nuclear accident association is creating permitting and political resistance that may prevent deployment in the densely populated areas where portable nuclear solutions offer the greatest energy security and grid decarbonization benefits. Sustained negative public sentiment following high-profile nuclear accidents continues to shape political conditions that complicate licensing approval for urban nuclear facility siting decisions.
COVID-19 disrupted portable nuclear solution development programs through supply chain delays and reduced government program engagement capacity during emergency response prioritization periods. Post-pandemic energy security concerns amplified by fossil fuel price volatility following geopolitical disruptions substantially strengthened the policy rationale for portable nuclear investment as a reliable, fuel-price-insensitive low-carbon energy source. Pandemic-era clean energy stimulus investment packages in the United States, United Kingdom, and European Union incorporated advanced nuclear development funding provisions that are sustaining commercial development program momentum across multiple portable nuclear technology developers.
The high-temperature gas reactors segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The high-temperature gas reactors segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period, due to their ability to deliver both high-efficiency electricity generation and high-temperature process heat at outlet temperatures of 700-950 degrees Celsius suitable for hydrogen production, industrial process heat, and district heating applications that substantially expand the addressable energy service market beyond electricity-only reactor configurations. HTGR passive safety characteristics using graphite moderated helium-cooled designs with inherently safe fuel pebble temperature limits are generating regulatory acceptance advantages. China's HTR-PM commercial demonstration plant operation and Japan's HTTR research program are generating operational data that is accelerating international regulatory acceptance.
The below 10 MW segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the below 10 MW segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate, driven by U.S. Department of Defense Project Pele microreactor development program, remote community deployment economics, and growing interest from mining operators seeking diesel displacement at isolated extraction sites. Microreactor designs in the 1-10 MW range offer factory fabrication and truck transportability that dramatically reduce site construction complexity and enable deployment in locations inaccessible to larger reactor systems. Multiple commercial microreactor developers including Oklo Inc., X-energy LLC, and Ultra Safe Nuclear Corporation are advancing NRC pre-application review processes that are building regulatory readiness for near-term first commercial deployments.
During the forecast period, the North America region is expected to hold the largest market share, due to the United States hosting the most advanced small modular reactor and microreactor development programs, substantial DOE Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program funding sustaining commercial developer technology readiness, and NRC advanced reactor licensing engagement that is establishing the global regulatory precedent framework. Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission SMR licensing readiness program and multiple Canadian utility SMR procurement assessments are reinforcing North American market leadership. U.S. defense microreactor procurement programs provide government revenue anchoring for technology developers advancing portable nuclear commercialization.
Over the forecast period, the Europe region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR, due to UK SMR program advancing Rolls-Royce SMR Ltd. toward generic design assessment completion, European energy security imperatives following fossil fuel supply disruptions generating political support for nuclear investment, and multiple Eastern European EU member states initiating SMR deployment feasibility programs. Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, and the Netherlands are actively evaluating SMR deployment as components of national energy security and decarbonization strategies. European Commission taxonomy classification of nuclear energy as a transitional sustainable activity is unlocking green finance for SMR project development across EU member states.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Portable Urban Nuclear Solutions Market include Rolls-Royce SMR Ltd., NuScale Power, TerraPower LLC, Westinghouse Electric Company, GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy, Rosatom, China National Nuclear Corporation, Korea Electric Power Corporation, EDF Group, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Holtec International, X-energy LLC, Oklo Inc., Ultra Safe Nuclear Corporation, Seaborg Technologies, BWXT Technologies, Fluor Corporation, and Bechtel Corporation.
In March 2026, NuScale Power submitted its updated VOYGR SMR standard design approval application to the NRC incorporating enhanced passive cooling system design modifications addressing previous review findings.
In March 2026, Rolls-Royce SMR Ltd. completed Phase 2 of its UK Generic Design Assessment submission to the Office for Nuclear Regulation achieving regulatory milestone clearance for factory fabrication safety case.
In February 2026, TerraPower LLC broke ground on its Natrium advanced sodium fast reactor demonstration plant in Wyoming marking the first U.S. advanced reactor commercial construction commencement in decades.
In February 2026, Oklo Inc. received U.S. Department of Defense contract funding to develop its Aurora compact fast reactor for forward operating base power supply capability demonstration at Idaho National Laboratory.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Rest of the World (RoW) Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.