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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
2007926
綠色鋼鐵市場預測至2034年—按產品類型、能源來源、生產技術、應用、最終用戶和地區分類的全球分析Green Steel Market Forecasts to 2034 - Global Analysis By Product Type (Flat Steel, Long Steel, Specialty Steel, Structural Steel and Other Product Types), Energy Source, Production Technology, Application, End User and By Geography |
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根據 Stratistics MRC 的數據,預計到 2026 年,全球綠色鋼鐵市場規模將達到 98 億美元,並在預測期內以 16.3% 的複合年成長率成長,到 2034 年將達到 329 億美元。
綠色鋼鐵是指採用與傳統高爐煉鋼和鹼性氧氣轉爐煉鋼相比,能夠顯著減少或消除二氧化碳排放的生產過程所生產的鋼鐵。主要生產方法包括:利用可再生能源電解產生的鐵礦石氫氣進行鐵礦石直接還原;採用可再生能源動力來源的電弧爐煉鋼;以及將碳捕集技術整合到現有鋼廠的排放氣體。綠色鋼鐵涵蓋扁鋼、長材、特殊鋼和結構鋼等產品類別,每噸鋼鐵的生命週期溫室氣體排放量可減少80%至95%,同時滿足與傳統方法生產的鋼鐵相同的機械性能產品類型。
來自工業脫碳政策的壓力
推動工業脫碳的政策壓力是鋼鐵企業加速投資綠色鋼鐵技術的主要驅動力。包括歐盟排放交易體系(EU ETS)在內的碳定價機制正在推高傳統高爐煉鋼的成本,而歐盟碳邊境調節機制(CBAM)將從2026年起獎勵低碳鋼的進口競爭力。汽車製造商和建設公司等企業客戶正在製定鋼鐵原料中「隱含碳」的採購要求,這催生了對檢驗的綠色鋼鐵供應的需求。政府聯合投資計畫正在降低使用綠色氫氣直接還原煉鋼廠的資本投資風險。
綠氫的成本和供應狀況
綠色氫氣的成本和供應限制是綠色鋼鐵規模化生產的最大障礙。採用氫氣直接還原煉鋼的經濟可行性主要取決於綠色氫氣價格能否低於每公斤2美元,但目前的電解成本使得大規模且穩定地實現這一價格目標變得不可能。鋼鐵生產地區可再生能源基礎設施的不足造成了綠色氫氣供應瓶頸,限制了產量的擴張。大規模鋼廠改造所需的專用綠色氫氣電解和分銷基礎設施的資本密集型特性,顯著增加了綠色鋼鐵的生產成本溢價,如果沒有持續的政府獎勵,目前的市場價格無法充分消化這一成本。
汽車供應鏈承諾
汽車供應鏈對脫碳的承諾正在創造機遇,這將為綠色鋼鐵製造商帶來巨大的需求。大眾、寶馬和沃爾沃等主要汽車製造商正在製定短期計劃,逐步將其鋼鐵採購轉向低碳認證供應商。豪華汽車製造商願意為檢驗的綠色鋼鐵支付溢價,以便向客戶證明綠色鋼鐵能夠降低車輛整個生命週期的碳排放。與汽車製造商簽訂的長期綠色鋼鐵採購協議,使鋼鐵製造商能夠獲得資金籌措,用於旨在改造煉鋼工藝、利用綠色氫能的資本計劃,並擁有清晰的收益前景。
在新興市場與傳統鋼鐵競爭
新興市場中不受碳定價約束的傳統鋼鐵生產商對綠色鋼鐵市場的發展構成競爭威脅。這是因為來自印度、東南亞和其他未受碳定價約束市場的低成本鋼鐵價格可能遠低於受保護市場的綠色鋼鐵。除非實施全球碳邊境調節機制,否則進口傳統鋼鐵將對價格構成下行壓力,削弱綠色鋼鐵的高階經濟地位。如果碳定價體系遭遇政治挫折,貿易政策的不確定性以及供應鏈轉移到不受監管地區可能造成的碳洩漏,都可能損害綠色鋼鐵的投資回報。
新冠感染疾病擾亂了鋼鐵供應鏈,降低了工業用鋼需求,並暫時抑制了對綠色鋼鐵轉型專案的投資。疫情後工業復甦與原料價格劇烈波動相結合,暴露了傳統鋼鐵企業的成本脆弱性,並迅速提升了人們對氫能生產模式的興趣,以實現能源來源多元化。疫情期間,歐洲和北美推出的綠色復甦獎勵策略包括大力支持鋼鐵脫碳領域的共同投資,並加速了綠色鋼鐵先導計畫的開發。
在預測期內,長截面鋼材領域預計將佔據最大佔有率。
由於長截面鋼材在基礎設施、建築和可再生能源計劃領域應用廣泛,預計在預測期內,該細分市場將佔據最大的市場佔有率。受永續城市發展和綠色基礎設施投資不斷增加的推動,市場對低碳長截面鋼材產品的需求正在加速成長。此細分市場具有與電弧爐 (EAF) 和氫基生產技術親和性的優勢,能夠顯著減少排放。此外,日益嚴格的監管壓力和環境、社會及公司治理 (ESG) 計劃也進一步促進了建築和工業領域的應用。
預計在預測期內,可再生能源為驅動的鋼鐵生產領域將呈現最高的複合年成長率。
在預測期內,可再生能源驅動的鋼鐵生產領域預計將呈現最高的成長率。這是因為電弧爐(EAF)營運商利用再生能源購電協議(PPA)和綠色電力價格直接為煉鋼過程供電,與直接氫氣還原法相比,顯著降低了資本投資,並實現了接近零的範圍2排放。再生能源,再生能源驅動的電弧爐的經濟效益正在不斷提高。認證使用可再生再生能源進行煉鋼脫碳的排碳權計畫正在為企業帶來採購溢價,並支持投資回報。
在預測期內,歐洲地區預計將佔據最大的市場佔有率。這主要歸功於以下幾點:全球最嚴格的碳定價框架為綠色鋼鐵投資提供了最強的經濟依據;政府對氫基煉鋼轉型的大量聯合投資;以及企業客戶的需求主導。瑞典鋼鐵製造商SSAB AB推出的石化燃料煉鋼舉措「HYBRIT」是全球最先進的綠色鋼鐵商業化計畫。歐盟創新基金正在資助安津貼樂米塔爾、蒂森克虜伯和福斯特阿爾卑斯等公司的氫直接還原煉鋼計劃。
在預測期內,亞太地區預計將呈現最高的複合年成長率。這主要歸功於中國、韓國、日本和印度龐大的鋼鐵產量,由此催生了巨大的脫碳市場;可再生能源供應的擴張促進了綠色氫氣的生產;以及各國政府持續推行低碳鋼政策。中國對碳中和的承諾正促使國營鋼鐵企業試行直接氫氣減量計劃。韓國浦項鋼鐵控股公司(POSCO Holdings)正大力投資氫能煉鋼技術的研發,目標是在預測期內實現商業化。
According to Stratistics MRC, the Global Green Steel Market is accounted for $9.8 billion in 2026 and is expected to reach $32.9 billion by 2034 growing at a CAGR of 16.3% during the forecast period. Green steel refers to steel produced through manufacturing processes that substantially reduce or eliminate carbon dioxide emissions compared to conventional blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace steelmaking, primarily through hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron ore using green hydrogen generated from renewable electricity electrolysis, electric arc furnace steelmaking powered by renewable energy, or carbon capture integration on existing steel plant emissions. Green steel encompasses flat, long, specialty, and structural steel product categories meeting equivalent mechanical performance specifications to conventionally produced steel while delivering lifecycle greenhouse gas emission reductions of 80-95% per tonne of steel produced.
Industrial Decarbonization Policy Pressure
Industrial decarbonization policy pressure is the primary driver compelling steel producers to accelerate green steel technology investment as carbon pricing mechanisms including the EU Emissions Trading System impose escalating costs on conventional blast furnace steel production, while the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism creates import competitiveness incentives for low-carbon steel from 2026. Corporate customers including automotive manufacturers and construction companies are establishing embodied carbon procurement requirements for steel inputs that are generating buyer-side demand for verified green steel supply. Government co-investment programs are de-risking green hydrogen direct reduction steel plant capital investments.
Green Hydrogen Cost and Availability
Green hydrogen cost and availability constraints represent the most critical barrier to green steel scaling, as hydrogen-based direct reduction steelmaking economics depend fundamentally on achieving green hydrogen prices below $2 per kilogram that current electrolysis costs cannot consistently deliver at scale. Renewable energy infrastructure limitations in steel-producing regions create green hydrogen supply bottlenecks that restrict production expansion. The capital intensity of dedicated green hydrogen electrolyzer and distribution infrastructure required for large-scale steel plant conversion substantially elevates green steel production cost premiums that current market pricing cannot adequately absorb without sustained government incentive support.
Automotive Supply Chain Commitments
Automotive supply chain decarbonization commitments are generating significant demand anchor opportunities for green steel producers, as major automotive OEMs including Volkswagen, BMW, and Volvo have established near-term timelines for transitioning steel procurement to low-carbon certified supply. Premium automotive manufacturers are demonstrating willingness to pay price premiums for verified green steel that enables their vehicle lifecycle carbon footprint claims to customers. Long-term green steel offtake agreements from automotive customers are enabling steel producers to secure financing for green hydrogen-based steelmaking transformation capital projects with assured revenue visibility.
Emerging Market Conventional Steel Competition
Emerging market conventional steel producers operating without carbon pricing constraints represent a competitive threat to green steel market development, as low-cost steel from India, Southeast Asia, and other non-carbon-priced markets can undercut green steel pricing by substantial margins in unprotected markets. Without global carbon border adjustment mechanism implementation, imported conventional steel creates downward pricing pressure that weakens green steel premium economics. Trade policy uncertainty and potential carbon leakage through supply chain relocation to non-regulated jurisdictions could undermine green steel investment returns if carbon pricing frameworks face political rollback.
COVID-19 disrupted steel supply chains and reduced industrial steel demand, temporarily depressing investment in green steel transformation programs. Post-pandemic industrial recovery combined with surging raw material price volatility exposed conventional steelmaker cost vulnerability and prompted accelerated interest in hydrogen-based production models offering energy input diversification. Pandemic-era green recovery stimulus programs in Europe and North America incorporated substantial steel decarbonization co-investment support that accelerated green steel pilot project development.
The long steel segment is expected to be the largest during the forecast period
The long steel segment is expected to account for the largest market share during the forecast period, due to its extensive application across infrastructure, construction, and renewable energy projects. Driven by rising investments in sustainable urban development and green infrastructure, demand for low-carbon long steel products is accelerating. The segment benefits from compatibility with electric arc furnace (EAF) and hydrogen-based production technologies, enabling significant emission reductions. Additionally, increasing regulatory pressure and ESG commitments are further strengthening adoption across construction and industrial sectors.
The renewable energy-based steel production segment is expected to have the highest CAGR during the forecast period
Over the forecast period, the renewable energy-based steel production segment is predicted to witness the highest growth rate, driven by electric arc furnace operators directly powering steelmaking with renewable power purchase agreements and green electricity tariffs, delivering near-zero scope 2 emissions at significantly lower capital investment than full hydrogen direct reduction conversion. Growing renewable electricity grid availability and declining renewable power purchase agreement prices are improving renewable-powered EAF economics. Carbon certificate programs validating renewable electricity-based steel decarbonization are generating corporate customer procurement premiums supporting investment returns.
During the forecast period, the Europe region is expected to hold the largest market share, due to the world's most stringent carbon pricing framework creating the strongest economic case for green steel investment, substantial government co-investment in hydrogen-based steelmaking transformation, and leading corporate customer demand. Swedish steelmaker SSAB AB's HYBRIT fossil-free steel production initiative represents the world's most advanced green steel commercialization program. EU Innovation Fund grants are financing hydrogen direct reduction steel projects at ArcelorMittal, thyssenkrupp AG, and Voestalpine AG.
Over the forecast period, the Asia Pacific region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR, due to massive steel production volumes in China, South Korea, Japan, and India creating large addressable decarbonization markets, growing renewable energy availability enabling green hydrogen production, and emerging government low-carbon steel mandates. China's carbon neutrality commitment is compelling state steel enterprises to pilot hydrogen direct reduction projects. South Korea's POSCO Holdings is investing substantially in hydrogen steelmaking technology development targeting commercial deployment within the forecast period.
Key players in the market
Some of the key players in Green Steel Market include SSAB AB, ArcelorMittal, Tata Steel, Thyssenkrupp AG, POSCO Holdings, Nucor Corporation, Voestalpine AG, HBIS Group, JFE Steel Corporation, China Baowu Steel Group, Salzgitter AG, JSW Steel, Hyundai Steel, Liberty Steel Group, Outokumpu, United States Steel Corporation, EVRAZ plc, and Gerdau S.A..
In March 2026, ArcelorMittal initiated construction of its Hamburg DRI-EAF project, a key green steel transformation initiative focused on hydrogen-based direct reduced iron production, strengthening its decarbonization roadmap and positioning within Europe's low-emission steel manufacturing ecosystem.
In February 2026, Voestalpine AG approved full-scale investment in its greentec steel program, deploying electric arc furnace technology at its Linz facility, aiming to reduce carbon emissions by 30% by 2027 while enhancing sustainable steel production capabilities.
In January 2026, SSAB AB delivered its first commercial-scale HYBRIT fossil-free steel volumes to Volvo Cars under a long-term supply agreement, marking a major milestone in green steel commercialization and accelerating low-carbon material adoption in the automotive sector.
Note: Tables for North America, Europe, APAC, South America, and Rest of the World (RoW) Regions are also represented in the same manner as above.