![]() |
市場調查報告書
商品編碼
2129079
2026年人形機器人產業發展及商業化調查報告Humanoid Robot Industry Progress and Commercialization Research Report, 2026 |
||||||
EAI機器人產業發展與商業化研究:人形機器人實際實用化哪些領域?
2026年,人工智慧(EAI)產業的資金籌措和產品發布將加速進行。光是今年6月和7月,中國就宣布了70多筆資金籌措交易。 AI2 Robotics融資約50億元人民幣,ROBOTERA在兩個月內融資25億元人民幣。 Agility Robotics也計劃透過SPAC(特殊目的收購公司)進行IPO,交易估值達25億美元。與這股資金籌措熱潮形成鮮明對比的是,另一個問題隨之而來:這些機器人究竟會在哪些具體場景下創造有償勞動?
一項針對國內外20家領先機器人廠商的調查顯示,人形機器人商業化進展在不同場景下存在顯著差異:物流倉儲業是唯一一個已突破付費商業部署門檻的場景;工業製造領域已有機器人透過單工位生產線檢驗;而消費級場景仍主要處於愛好者和早期採用者階段,實際出貨的機器人採集中相當一部分用於非生產系統,例如研發、生產、展示、展示數據
根據高盛380億美元的市場預測,這目前僅佔機器人總出貨量的4%。
2026年,多家國際投資銀行相繼調高了人形機器人市場的預測。高盛的基準預測情境顯示,全球人形機器人出貨量將從2025年的2萬台增加到2035年的137.8萬台,十年複合年成長率(CAGR)高達53%。全球市場規模預計也將從2025年的39億美元成長至2035年的380億美元。 2026年8月,摩根士丹利第二次調高了2026年中國人形機器人出貨量的預測,從年初的1.4萬台調至5萬台。該證券公司預測,2025年至2030年,中國汽車出貨量將以106%至122%的複合年成長率成長,到2030年達到44.6萬台。中國市場規模預計將從2026年的20億美元成長到2030年的150億美元,四年複合年成長率約為72%。
然而,出貨量與實際活用狀況之間存在顯著差距。摩根士丹利的數據顯示,到2025年,中國出貨量的組成將為:42%用於研發和教育,19%用於互動演示和文化娛樂表演,19%用於數據收集和培訓,而僅有4%用於實際的工業物流。付費商業客戶對全尺寸人形機器人的實際採用率遠低於「出貨量」。這是因為出貨量不僅包括政府資料中心、教育研究機構和內部測試單元,還包括非全尺寸的雙足人形機器人,例如四腳機器人和輪式機器人。
企業調查提供了更直接的見解。 74%的企業認為「工作能力和功能有限」是採用該技術的最大障礙,這一比例高於認為「初始部署成本高昂」的58%。 40%的企業認為10萬至20萬元人民幣的價格區間可以接受,便於大規模部署,但目前大多數全尺寸人形機器人的售價在25萬至50萬元人民幣之間,這意味著要達到目標價格,成本需要降低30%至60%。約三分之二的企業高管計劃在2027年前啟動先導計畫,而這些「試點」項目向「大規模採購」的轉換率將是2027年至2028年的關鍵變數。工業物流的佔比能否從4%提升至15%-20%,將是衡量商業化是否真正開始的關鍵指標。
物流和倉儲產業是唯一克服支付障礙的領域,但中國市場的機會要到 2028 年以後才會出現。
Agility Robotics 的「Digit」機器人是目前公開可用的最具標竿性的商業案例研究,擁有可量化的營運成果。亞馬遜於 2023 年 10 月開始試用 Digit 機器人,用於分類空容器。 2024 年 6 月,GXO 簽署了首份多年期機器人即服務 (RaaS) 合約。截至 2025 年 11 月,Digit 機器人已在 GXO 的倉庫中累積處理了超過 10 萬個可回收容器。 18 個月的營運數據顯示,雙足人形機器人能夠持續且有效率地完成倉庫內的標準化任務。
在路演資料中,Agility 宣布了一項標準化的顧客加速計畫 (CAP)。該計劃概述了一個從客戶接洽到產生收入的六個月週期,包含四個階段:第 0-2 個月在客戶現場或 Agility 的實驗室進行技術檢驗;第 2-3 個月部署 1-2小規模機器人進行概念驗證(POC) 和初步投資回報率 (ROI) 計算;第 4-6 個月簽署機器人服務 (RaaS) 試點工作RaaS 訂閱或直接購買,並在客戶的工廠或倉庫中擴大部署規模。已完成轉型並進入商業部署的五家標竿客戶包括 GXO、亞馬遜、舍弗勒、Mercado Libre 和豐田汽車加拿大製造公司。
中美兩國經濟差異將是決定商業化過程的關鍵因素。在路演資料中,Agility公司展示了一個基於美國勞工統計局2025年數據的量化投資報酬率模型。根據該模型,美國藍領工人的平均時薪為31.49美元。一台Digit機器人可以取代一名實行兩班制的工人,這意味著每被Digit取代一人,每年可節省約20萬美元的人事費用。
在機器人即服務 (RaaS) 模式下,唯一的成本是約 25,000 美元的初始部署費和約 8,300 美元的月租金,每台機器人的年成本約為 100,000 美元。在五年的生命週期內,每台機器人可產生約 50 萬美元的收入。 100,000 美元的投資可節省 200,000 美元的成本,投資回報率約為 2.0。在所有權模式下,除了初始硬體購置成本外,還有約 20,000 美元的部署費。五年生命週期內的總成本約為 40 萬美元。這可節省約 110 萬美元的人事費用,投資報酬率約為 2.5,投資回收期約為 13 個月。
中國市場將於2026年進入加速發展階段。 ROBOTERA M7已在順豐速運和中國郵政的10多個物流中心部署,數千台機器人將於2026年第二季開始交付。 AGIBOT Genie G2 Max將於2026年7月在京東物流的智浪倉庫部署,而Geek+將於2026年2月推出首款通用倉庫人形機器人「Gino 1」。
在中國,倉庫分類工人的時薪約為5-7美元。目前人形機器人的物料清單(BOM)成本約為3萬美元(約21萬元人民幣)。 92%的企業表示,只有單價降至20萬元以下,他們才會大規模將在2028年至2030年間實現。
在汽車製造業領域,寶馬、賓士、豐田和現代正在引入機器人,並從先導計畫轉向商業性部署。
海外OEM廠商正從試點計畫轉向商業部署:
1. Figure AI 是汽車產業記錄最詳盡的應用案例。 Figure 02 在寶馬集團斯帕坦堡工廠的車身車間運作了11 個月,累計運作1250 小時,加工了超過 9 萬個沖壓零件,為超過 3 萬輛寶馬 X3 的生產做出了貢獻。
2. 自2026年6月起,BMW集團斯帕坦堡工廠52號廠房已安裝了約40台圖3所示的機器人。這些機器人的任務已從簡單的沖壓件揀選和放置升級為物流分揀,即從未分類的零件中揀選零件,並根據組裝順序將其運送給生產線工人,其計費方式約為每小時25美元。寶馬集團萊比錫工廠(德國)也正在推廣這類機器人。
3. 自 2024 年 3 月起,Apptronik Apollo 一直在梅賽德斯-奔馳辛德芬根工廠(德國)和梅賽德斯-奔馳塔斯卡盧薩工廠(美國)進行生產線旁物料輸送的試點運營,並於 2026 年簽署了一項多年商業協議。
4. Agility Digit機器人已投入商業應用,用於運輸汽車零件和整車。它們在南卡羅來納州舍弗勒的八家製造工廠實行兩班制運作,迄今已累計運輸了25,000箱軸承零件,並獲得了NRTL安全認證。首批七台Agility Digit機器人部署在豐田位於加拿大劍橋的組裝廠,負責生產線旁的物流作業。
5. 2026款全電動「Atlas」車型的所有配額已全部售罄,預計將於未來幾個月內從現代汽車的機器人元工廠應用中心(RMAC)和谷歌DeepMind開始交付。現代汽車已將波士頓動力公司收購完全子公司,並建立了一套年產能高達3萬輛「Atlas」的生產系統,優先向現代汽車的全球製造地供應。
中國製造商的採用主要集中在現場培訓和概念驗證(POC) 上,現在正轉向交付。
優必選的「Walker」機器人已部署在蔚來、捷捷、吉利、一汽-大眾和東風柳州汽車等汽車製造商的工廠中,目前正在進行概念驗證(POC)測試。它們的任務包括透過單件供應系統(SPS)在組裝廠供應零件、車輛品質檢驗、組裝和揀選、車輛標識貼上、安全帶和燈罩檢查以及油液加註。
2. 2026年1月,上海邁易汽車技術有限公司訂購了價值9,051萬元人民幣的「Walker S2」機器人,用於新能源汽車的電池組裝和電子元件組裝。
3. 樂居機器人已與六家主要汽車製造商合作。中國第一汽車廠(一汽)紅旗組裝廠的物流揀選項目是首個公開競標的人形機器人項目,機器人已於2025年4月分批正式部署。北汽、蔚來、江淮、吉利和奇瑞目前正處於概念驗證或小規模部署階段。
4. ROBOTERA 透過吉利的投資進入汽車產業,並已與寶馬和雷諾開展概念驗證 (POC) 計畫。
5. Galbot 的機器人被應用於豐田、現代、北汽、上汽、澤克爾和長城汽車等 OEM 製造商的生產線中,該公司已在工業領域獲得了數千台機器人的訂單。
從經濟角度來看,如圖 03 所示,美國市場的運作成本為每小時 25 美元,投資回報期 (ROI) 可在 18 至 24 個月內收回。在中國市場,汽車業工人的時薪約為 8 至 12 美元。鑑於目前人形機器人的物料清單 (BOM) 成本約為 35,000 美元(約 25 萬元),投資回報期為 36 至 48 個月,尚未實現獲利能力。儘管如此,原始設備製造商 (OEM) 已表示有意進行前期投資,以實現策略性定位並降低未來的成本。
進入OEM市場有三個切入點,但奇瑞是第一家建立閉迴路業務的公司。
從2025年下半年開始,OEM廠商將成為人形機器人領域最積極的進入者之一。比亞迪、小鵬、奇瑞、賽瑞斯、小米和廣汽等OEM廠商正利用自身的應用場景、供應鏈、分銷管道以及透過內部孵化和資本聯盟獲得的資金,大膽進軍市場。
OEM廠商進入人形機器人市場有三種途徑:
首先,奇瑞愛摩加採取了「內部孵化+外部供應」的策略。這意味著利用自身的經銷商網路和銷售管道,快速形成閉迴路業務,並擴大海外市場。
2. 第二種選擇是「內部研發,內部使用」,以小鵬汽車為例。其優勢在於建立了真實場景和資料的閉合迴路,無需外部客戶檢驗。然而,在2027年之前,幾乎沒有任何外部收入。此外,「內部使用的成功案例」並不能保證獲得外部客戶的市場認可,而且機器人團隊缺乏商業化經驗。
3. 第三種方法是「透過產業鏈建立資本夥伴關係」,ROBOTERA 和 ENGINEAI 就採用了這種方法。 ROBOTERA 透過吉利主導的A+ 輪資金籌措進入汽車行業,並與雷諾、寶馬和比亞迪開展了概念驗證 (POC) 項目。 ENGINEAI 獲得了立訊精密的投資,負責生產製造。同時,它也透過與多倫科技的合資企業,建構了一個涵蓋 2000 多台機器人、為期三年的交通管理場景框架。
在眾多汽車製造商中,奇瑞AiMOGA發展速度最快,商業化路徑也最為清晰。 2025年,將交付300台人形機器人和1000台機器狗。從2026年起,全球總銷量將超過1,000台,其中人形機器人將超過400台,機器狗將超過600台。 4S店方面,已向馬來西亞、印尼等海外奇瑞經銷商交付了220台「Mornine」人形機器人,負責店內接待、車輛介紹、試駕預約等工作。
智慧警用單元「R001」是艾莫加公司首款實現垂直整合的產品,訂單量達數千台,其中數百台已投入日常使用。 2026年4月,艾莫加公司與蕪湖市交警部門簽訂了1,030台的訂單,並交付了110台。這些警用單元在蕪湖市中心及學校周邊的主要幹道和次要幹道上持續運行,並與城市交通號誌系統深度整合。
全球化是AiMOGA有別於其他OEM廠商的一大特色。 2025年9月,AiMOGA獲得了三個重要的歐盟認證:CE-MD(機械指令)、CE-RED(無線電設備指令)和EN-18031(機器人安全標準),使其產品能夠直接進入60多個認可CE標誌的國家和地區市場。 AiMOGA瞄準歐洲市場,在波蘭取得了突破性進展,目前已入駐華沙的4S店。
在經營模式方面,AiMOGA提供三種交易方式——直銷、AiMOGA機器人租賃平台以及透過奇瑞金融服務公司(CHERY FS)分期付款——以降低客戶的購買門檻。 2026年4月,Mornine M1在京東商城以每台285,800元人民幣的價格出售。
在產學合作方面,愛莫佳已與包括中國科學技術大學、天津大學、合肥工業大學在內的約600所高校建立了聯合研究院,並成立了「愛莫佳學院」,同時運營著31個專業技術研究院。公司計劃在三年內培養10萬名工程輔助智慧(EAI)專業人才。
其他汽車製造商也在加快腳步。小鵬汽車將EAI定位為集團的首要策略重點。何小鵬本人擔任機器人業務的CEO。 IRON已在小鵬汽車位於廣州和肇慶的工廠部署了500多台測試設備。他們計劃於2026年第四季開始每月量產1,000台,並於2027年開始全球交付。廣汽集團於2026年2月透過其全資孵化的VLUN獨立營運機器人業務。 GoMate Mini機器人已在廣州地鐵黃村站和萬勝圍站投入運作,目標是2027年實現1萬台的量產。賽瑞斯將EAI定位為其第三條成長曲線。小米CyberOne正在其位於北京的壓鑄工廠進行試運轉。
2026年國內與國際發展路徑比較:政策主導全球終端市場與投資報酬率主導RaaS模式
從場景部署角度來看,國內廠商普遍採用全場景部署策略。優必選和樂居機器人涵蓋超過10個場景,而愛立信、高博和奇瑞愛慕佳則參與超過8個場景。海外廠商則通常專注於2到4個場景,例如Agility和Figure專注於物流和汽車領域,而1X則專注於安防和智慧家庭領域。
中國的G端市場較為分散,每個城市和部門都有各自的預算。跨多個場景部署可以最大限度地覆蓋不同的買家群體。海外B端客戶以投資報酬率(ROI)作為決策標準,只有在單一場景下展現出可量化的經濟效益後,才會將模型推廣到其他客戶。跨所有場景部署的優勢在於收入來源多元化和更廣泛地獲取政策資源。風險包括資源分散、在單一場景中的滲透率較低以及企劃為基礎收入不永續。相較之下,深入單一場景可以帶來對該場景的深刻理解、可複製且標準化的RaaS合約以及清晰的單位經濟模型,但同時也增加了該場景內需求波動帶來的風險。
中國市場最重要的結構性特徵是政府和國營企業採購。 2026年,國家電網的EAI(生態系統應用整合)採購總額將達到68億元人民幣,其中25億元人民幣(佔設備數量的6%,資金總額的37%)將用於採購500台帶電作業人形機器人和8,000台四腳機器狗及輪式雙臂機器人。
G端市場內部也存在差異。關鍵因素在於,國內廠商能否在2028年G端採購需求降溫前,成功轉型為永續的B端市場,獲利。
1. 電力能源巡檢象徵「永續需求」。國家電網營運10萬多個變電站,巡檢員平均年薪30萬元。投資回報期為2-3年,且有回購前景。相應的市場需求量為5萬至10萬台,規模達200億至500億元。
2. 資料採集中心通常以一次性採購的方式購買機器人,這些機器人主要用於訓練而非生產性工作。一旦每個城市建成一到兩個資料採集中心,需求就會趨於飽和。優必選科技在2025年第四季的前三個月獲得了六份數據採集訂單,總額達8.29億元人民幣,占公司總訂單的52%。樂居機器人旗下酷沃機器人44.94%的營收來自數據採集業務。隨著資料中心在2027年逐步建成,預計該領域的需求將下降70%以上。
在經營模式方面,海外供應商主要專注於機器人即服務 (RaaS) 訂閱模式。 Agility 的 RaaS 定價約為每月 8,300 美元,而 Digit v5 已獲得超過 3 億美元的多年期契約,占公司總訂單的 80% 以上。 1X Technologies 將其輪式人形機器人「EVE」應用於商業安保和物流運營,並透過 RaaS 模式實現盈利。其年租金約 700 萬美元,毛利率為 60%,用於支援「NEO 家用機器人」的研發。 Figure 向寶馬收取每小時約 25 美元的費用。
這些為期三到五年的長期契約,比一次性硬體銷售更有前景。根據Agility的路演資料,該公司RaaS(硬體即服務)的毛利率推出到年產能1000台時的約70%,並在產能擴大到10000台時達到約75%,同時每台設備的投資回收期也從1.5年縮短到不到6個月。
在美國,機器人即服務(RaaS)模式要成功,藍領階級的時薪必須達到31.49美元。相較之下,中國倉庫和物流中心第一線工人的月收入約為5,000至7,000元人民幣。因此,直接照搬Agility的定價模式並不現實。目前,國內廠商主要專注於硬體捆綁銷售和專案合作。像AGIBOT BOTSHARE和奇瑞租賃平台這樣的準RaaS模式仍處於起步階段,主要基於專案和短期租賃,尚未有公開的多年期合約案例。
此外,還有一些海外並不存在的合資模式。樂居機器人一年內成立了四家合資企業,但每家公司的股權比例都只有20%。公司透過轉讓股份來確保市場准入和訂單穩定性,但由於規模經濟效應,大部分生產利潤都歸合資夥伴所有。
摩根士丹利將中國的人形機器人產業鏈與十年前的新能源汽車產業鏈進行比較,認為中國可以複製新能源汽車領域的成功模式。這首先需要利用供應鏈成本優勢,在硬體製造和全球分銷領域佔主導地位,然後逐步向上游人工智慧晶片和軟體生態系統拓展。
EAI Robot Industry Progress and Commercialization Research: In Which Scenarios Have Humanoid Robots Actually Been Put into Service?
In 2026, the financing and release in the embodied artificial intelligence (EAI) industry are accelerating. In June and July this year, there were more than 70 financing events disclosed in China. AI2 Robotics raised nearly RMB5 billion, ROBOTERA raised a total of RMB2.5 billion in two months, and Agility Robotics planned to go public through SPAC, with a transaction valuation of USD2.5 billion. Contrasting with the capital frenzy lies another question: in what scenarios exactly have these robots generated real paid labor?
Based on a review of 20 major robot vendors at home and abroad, the current commercialization progress of humanoid robots shows obvious scenario differentiation: logistics and warehousing is the only scenario that has crossed the threshold of paid commercial deployment, industrial manufacturing has seen that robots passed production line verification at a single station, and the home scenario is still stuck in the geek and early user stage, while considerable shipments actually go to non-productive fields such as R&D, education, interactive display, and data collection.
According to Goldman Sachs' market forecast of USD38 billion, only 4% of robots are actually shipped at this stage.
In 2026, many foreign investment banks have continuously raised their projections for the humanoid robot market. Under Goldman Sachs' baseline scenario, global shipments will increase from 20,000 units in 2025 to 1.378 million units in 2035, with a ten-year CAGR of 53%; the global market size will swell from USD3.9 billion in 2025 to USD38 billion in 2035. In August 2026, Morgan Stanley revised its forecast for China's shipments in 2026 for the second time this year, lifting the figure from 14,000 units at the start of the year to 50,000 units. It projects that China's shipment CAGR will hit 106%-122% during 2025-2030, reaching 446,000 units by 2030. China's market size is expected to grow from USD2.0 billion in 2026 to USD15.0 billion in 2030, representing a four-year CAGR of approximately 72%.
However, there is a significant gap between shipments and actual application. Morgan Stanley's data shows that in 2025, R&D and education accounted for 42% of China's shipments, interactive demonstration and cultural/entertainment performances 19%, data collection and training 19%, while real industrial logistics scenarios only 4%. The active deployment of full-size humanoid robots at paying commercial customers is far lower than their "shipments", as the shipments cover governmental data centers, education and research institutions, internal test units, as well as non-full-size biped humanoids such as quadruped and wheeled robots.
Enterprise surveys offer more direct insights: 74% of enterprises cite "limited working capabilities and functionalities" as the top barrier to application, exceeding the 58% that point to "high upfront procurement costs". 40% of enterprises regard RMB100,000-200,000 as the acceptable price range for wide application, while most current full-size humanoid robots are priced at RMB250,000-500,000, leaving a 30%-60% cost reduction gap toward the target price. Approximately two-thirds of corporate executives plan to launch pilot projects before 2027, yet the conversion rate from "pilots" to "mass procurement" constitutes the core variable for 2027-2028. Whether the proportion of industrial logistics can be increased from 4% to 15%-20% is a key indicator to judge whether commercialization truly starts.
Logistics & warehousing is the only scenario that has crossed the payment threshold, but the Chinese market window will be open after 2028
Digit from US-based Agility Robotics represents the most benchmark-setting public commercial case with quantifiable operational outputs to date. Amazon began testing Digit for empty-bin sorting in October 2023; GXO signed its first multi-year RaaS contract in June 2024; by November 2025, Digit fleets had handled more than 100,000 returnable containers cumulatively at GXO warehouses. 18-month operational data has validated that bipedal humanoid robots can consistently perform standardized tasks within warehouses.
In its roadshow documents, Agility disclosed a standardized Customer Acceleration Program (CAP), which specifies a six-month cycle from customer contact to stable revenue generation, including four phases: Months 0-2 involve technical verification at the customer's site or in Agility's lab; Months 2-3 involve small-scale deployment of 1-2 robots for Proof of Concept (POC) and preliminary ROI calculation; Months 4-6 involve signing a pilot RaaS agreement and deploying 3-5 robots to conduct normalized two-shift operation; and after six months, the project transitions to a long-term RaaS subscription or direct purchase and replication at the customer's factory or warehouse. Five benchmark customers that have completed the transformation and entered commercial deployment include GXO, Amazon, Schaeffler, Mercado Libre and Toyota Motor Manufacturing Canada.
The economic difference between China and the United States is the key to determining the pace of commercialization. In the roadshow document, Agility gave a quantitative ROI model based on 2025 data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: the average hourly wage for blue-collar workers in the United States stands at USD31.49. A single Digit robot can replace one worker operating two shifts, translating to an equivalent annual labor cost of approximately USD200,000 for a human worker that Digit substitutes.
Under the RaaS model, there is only a one-time deployment fee of approximately USD25,000 plus a monthly rental fee of around USD8,300, resulting in an annual cost of roughly USD100,000 per robot. Over its 5-year lifecycle, each robot generates about USD500,000 in revenue. An investment of USD100,000 yields USD200,000 in cost savings, delivering an ROI of approximately 2.0X. For the ownership model, it involves one-time hardware procurement plus around USD20,000 in deployment fees. The total cost over the 5-year lifecycle stands at roughly USD400,000. It replaces equivalent labor costs of approximately USD1,100,000, with an ROI of about 2.5X and payback on upfront investment in roughly 13 months.
The Chinese market enters an acceleration phase in 2026. ROBOTERA M7 has entered more than 10 logistics centers of SF Express and China Post, and the delivery of thousands of such robots started in the second quarter of 2026. AGIBOT Genie G2 Max was deployed in JD Logistics Zhilang Warehouse in July 2026, and Geek+ released its first general-purpose warehousing humanoid robot - Gino 1 in February 2026.
The wage for warehouse sorting workers in China stands at approximately USD5-7 per hour. The current BOM cost of humanoid robots is around USD30,000 (approximately RMB210,000). 92% of enterprises will only conduct large-scale procurement of humanoid robots if the unit price drops below RMB200,000. Factories have a psychological price threshold below USD15,000 (approximately RMB100,000), so the BOM cost of humanoid robots should be further reduced by 50%-70% to achieve economic viability, with the corresponding time window projected for 2028-2030.
For automobile manufacturing, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, and Hyundai have adopted robots, moving from pilot projects to commercial replication.
The deployment of overseas OEMs has shifted from trials to commercial replication:
1.Figure AI represents the most well-documented use case in the automotive field: Figure 02 ran in the Bodyshop at the BMW Group Plant Spartanburg for 11 months, logging 1,250 cumulative hours, handling more than 90,000 stamped parts, and participating in the production of more than 30,000 BMW X3 vehicles.
2.Since June 2026, approximately 40 Figure 03 robots have been deployed in Hall 52 of the BMW Group Plant Spartanburg. The tasks have been upgraded from simple picking and placing of stamped parts to logistics sorting, picking from unsorted parts and delivering them to line workers in assembly order, billed at approximately USD25/hour. Such robots have expanded to the BMW Group Plant Leipzig (Germany).
3.Apptronik Apollo has been piloting line-side material distribution at the Mercedes-Benz Plant Sindelfingen (Germany) and the Mercedes-Benz Plant Tuscaloosa (United States) since March 2024, and signed a multi-year commercial agreement in 2026.
4.Agility Digit robots have been commercially deployed for auto parts and vehicles: they operate in two shifts at eight locations at Schaeffler's manufacturing plant in South Carolina, have transported a total of 25,000 bearing parts boxes, and have passed NRTL safety certification. The first batch of 7 Agility Digit robots deployed at Toyota's Cambridge Assembly Plant in Canada perform line-side logistics tasks.
5.All electric Atlas deployments are already fully committed for 2026, with fleets scheduled to ship to Hyundai's Robotics Metaplant Application Center (RMAC) and Google DeepMind in the coming months. With Boston Dynamics now wholly-owned, Hyundai is building capacity to produce up to 30,000 Atlas units annually, with priority supply for Hyundai's global manufacturing facilities.
The deployment of Chinese OEMs is mainly focused on practical training and POC, and is transitioning to batch delivery:
1.UBTECH's Walker robots have entered the factories of OEMs such as NIO, ZEEKR, Geely, FAW-Volkswagen, Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor, etc. for POC. Their tasks include SPS feeding in assembly workshops, vehicle quality inspection, assembly and picking, vehicle logo affixing, seat belt & light cover inspection, oil & fluid filling, etc.
2.In January 2026, MIEE (Shanghai) Automotive Technology placed an order worth RMB90.51 million for Walker S2 robots to be used in new energy vehicle battery assembly and electronic component assembly.
3.Leju Robotics has reached cooperation with 6 mainstream OEMs. The logistics picking project in the final assembly workshop of China FAW Hongqi Factory is the first humanoid robot project to be publicly tendered, where the robots were officially applied in batches in April 2025. BAIC, NIO, JAC, Geely, and Chery are in the POC or small-scale deployment stage.
4.ROBOTERA has entered the automotive sector through Geely's investment and has started POC at BMW and Renault.
5.Galbot robots have entered the production lines of OEMs such as Toyota, Hyundai, BAIC, SAIC, ZEEKR, and Great Wall Motor, with securing orders in the industrial field for thousands of units cumulatively.
In terms of economics, Figure 03 incurs an operating cost of USD25 per hour in the U.S. market, where an ROI within 18-24 months is achievable. In the Chinese market, automotive workers earn approximately USD8-12 per hour. With the current humanoid robot BOM cost at around USD35,000 (roughly RMB250,000), the ROI stretches to 36-48 months, meaning economic viability is not yet realized. Nevertheless, OEMs are willing to pay upfront for strategic positioning and future cost reduction.
There are three entry paths for OEMs, of which Chery is the first to build a closed business loop.
Since the second half of 2025, OEMs have become one of the most aggressive entrants in the field of humanoid robots. OEMs such as BYD, XPeng, Chery, Seres, Xiaomi, and GAC have made their radical foray into the market through internal incubation or capital binding, taking advantage of scenarios, supply chains, channels, and funds.
There are three paths for OEMs to enter the field of humanoid robots:
1.First is the "internal incubation + external supply" path adopted by Chery AiMOGA, which relies on its own dealer network and channels to quickly form a closed business loop and go overseas.
2.Second is the "in-house R&D for internal use" path represented by Xpeng. Its strengths lie in real-world scenarios and data closed-loop, eliminating the need for validation by external customers. However, it will generate virtually no external revenue before 2027. Besides, "proven performance for internal use" does not guarantee market acceptance among external customers, and the robot team also lacks productization experience.
3.Third is industrial chain capital binding, taken by ROBOTERA and ENGINEAI. ROBOTERA has entered the automotive sector through the Series A+ financing led by Geely, and has carried out POC at Renault, BMW, and BYD. ENGINEAI has received investment from Luxshare which undertakes manufacturing. At the same time, through a joint venture with Duolun Technology, it has obtained a traffic management scenario framework involving no fewer than 2,000 robots in three years.
Among OEMs, Chery AiMOGA has made the fastest progress and the clearest commercialization path. In 2025, 300 humanoid robots and 1,000 robot dogs were delivered. Since 2026, the total global sales volume has exceeded 1,000 units, including more than 400 humanoid robots and more than 600 robot dogs. As for 4S stores, 220 Mornine humanoid robots have been delivered to overseas Chery dealers in Malaysia, Indonesia and other countries, and are responsible for in-store reception, vehicle introduction, and test drive appointment and the like.
Intelligent Police Unit R001 is AiMOGA's first vertical product to achieve contracts for thousands of units and regular deployment for hundreds of units. In April 2026, 1,030 units were contracted and 110 units were delivered to Wuhu's traffic police force. They are on regular duty on the main and secondary arterial roads in Wuhu's main urban area and around schools, and are deeply connected to the urban traffic light system.
Globalization is a distinctive feature that distinguishes AiMOGA from other OEMs. In September 2025, it obtained three major EU certifications: CE-MD (Machinery Directive), CE-RED (Radio Equipment Directive), and EN-18031 (Robot Safety Standard), enabling its direct market access to more than 60 countries and regions that recognize CE marking. Targeting Europe, it tooks Poland as the breakthrough point to enter Warsaw-based 4S stores.
In terms of business model, AiMOGA offers three transaction modes: direct sales, AiMOGA Robot Rental Platform and installment payment via CHERY FS to lower the purchase threshold for customers. Mornine M1 was sold to consumers on JD.com at a unit price of RMB285,800 in April 2026.
In terms of industry-academia-research collaboration, AiMOGA has built joint laboratories with nearly 600 universities, including the University of Science and Technology of China, Tianjin University, and Hefei University of Technology, and established the AiMOGA Academy and deployed 31 special technology laboratories. It plans to cultivate100,000 EAI talents in three years.
Other OEMs are also accelerating their pace. XPeng has listed EAI as the group's first strategic priority. He Xiaopeng personally serves as CEO of the robot business. IRON has invested more than 500 test machines in XPeng's factories in Guangzhou and Zhaoqing. It plans to mass-produce in the fourth quarter of 2026 with a monthly production capacity of 1,000 units, and start global delivery in 2027. GAC independently operates robots through VLUN, which was fully incubated by GAC in February 2026. GoMate Mini robots have been operating regularly at Huangcun Station and Wanshengwei Station of the Guangzhou Metro, with a mass production goal of 10,000 units in 2027. Seres reckons EAI as the third growth curve. Xiaomi CyberOne has been tested in the die-casting workshop of the Beijing factory.
Comparison between domestic and foreign paths in 2026: policy-driven G-end market and ROI-driven RaaS model
In terms of scenario layout, domestic vendors generally adopt the all-scenario rollout strategy. UBTECH and Leju Robotics cover more than 10 scenarios, and AGIBOT, Galbot, Chery AiMOGA, etc. get involved in more than 8 scenarios. Foreign vendors generally focus on 2-4 scenarios, with Agility and Figure highlighting logistics and automobiles, and 1X pivoting on security and households.
China's G-end market scenarios are fragmented, with each city and department having independent budgets. The layout in multiple scenarios can maximize outreach to various purchasers. Overseas B-end customers use ROI as the basis for decision-making, and must prove quantifiable economic returns in a single scenario before they replicate the model across customers. The advantage of all-scenario deployment lies in diversified revenue streams and broad access to policy resources. Its risks include dispersed resources, shallow penetration within each individual scenario, and unsustainable project-based revenue. By comparison, deep penetration into a single scenario delivers in-depth scenario understanding, replicable standardized RaaS contracts and clear unit economic models, but risks high vulnerability to demand fluctuations within that single scenario.
The most significant structural feature of the Chinese market is G-end (governments and state-owned enterprises) procurement. In 2026, State Grid's EAI procurement totals RMB6.8 billion for 500 humanoid robots engaged in live-line working worth RMB2.5 billion (6% of the units and 37% of the fund) as well as 8,000 quadruped robot dogs and wheeled dual-arm robots.
There are also divergences within G-end demand. Whether domestic vendors can shift toward sustainable B-end revenue before G-end procurement cools down by 2028 is a crux:
1.Power and energy inspection represents "sustainable demand". State Grid operates more than 100,000 substations, where the average annual salary per inspector stands at RMB300,000. A 2-3-year ROI is achievable with potential repurchase. The corresponding market demand ranges from 50,000 to 100,000 units, amounting to RMB20-50 billion.
2.Data acquisition centers tend to purchase robots on a one-off basis, where robots are trained instead of performing productive tasks. Demand becomes saturated once 1-2 centers are built in each prefecture-level city. UBTECH signed with 6 data collection orders in 3 months in the fourth quarter of 2025, totaling RMB829 million, accounting for 52% of its valued orders. For Leju Robotics, 44.94% of the revenue triggered by Kuavo comes from data collection. As data centers are gradually built in 2027, the demand herein is expected to drop by more than 70%.
In terms of business model, overseas vendors focus on RaaS subscription. Agility's RaaS is priced at about USD8,300 per month, and Digit v5 has locked in multi-year orders of more than USD300 million, accounting for more than 80% of its signed orders. 1X Technologies utilizes its wheeled humanoid robot, EVE deployed for commercial security and logistical tasks, as a commercial "cash cow" through the RaaS model, with an annual rent of about USD7 million and a gross margin of 60% to support the research and development of NEO Home Robot. Figure charges BMW at about USD25 per hour.
These 3-5-year long-term agreements have far higher revenue visibility than one-time hardware sales. Agility's roadshow documents further show that its RaaS gross margin rises from approximately 50% at launch phase to roughly 70% at an annual capacity of 1,000 units and about 75% at 10,000 units as capacity ramps up, while the payback period per unit shortens from 1.5 years to less than half a year.
The premise for viable RaaS in the United States lies in the blue-collar worker wage of USD31.49 per hour. In contrast, a front-line warehousing and logistics worker in China earn roughly RMB5,000-7,000 per month. Therefore, it is not feasible to directly copy Agility's pricing model. Domestic vendors currently mainly center on one-time hardware sales and projects. Quasi-RaaS attempts such as AGIBOT BOTSHARE and Chery Leasing Platform are still in their early stages and are mainly based on projects and short-term rentals, with no multi-year contracts disclosed.
There is also a joint venture model that is not available abroad. Leju Robotics established four joint ventures within one year, but only holds a 20% stake in each. It trades equity for market access and order certainty, while scale-driven manufacturing profits mostly accrue to its joint-venture partners.
Morgan Stanley compared China's humanoid robot industry chain to new energy vehicles ten years ago, suggesting that China may replicate the successful path of the electric vehicle field - first leveraging the supply chain cost advantage to gain dominance in hardware manufacturing and global shipments, and then gradually penetrating into the upstream AI chip and software ecosystem.