生物能源與碳捕獲與封存技術

生物能源與碳捕獲和封存 (BECCS) 正成為全球實現淨負排放和應對氣候變遷的核心技術。隨著氣候政策的演變、企業淨零排放目標的強化以及自願碳市場的不斷發展，BECCS 因其永久封存生物質二氧化碳的能力而脫穎而出。市場格局正受到以下因素的影響：對可靠、可持續碳信用日益增長的需求、歐美監管框架的演變以及可持續生物質供應鏈的建立。這些趨勢為尋求可靠脫碳路徑的專案開發商、技術提供者、投資者和政策制定者創造了新的機會。

Guidehouse Research 從全面的全球視角分析了 BECCS 市場，重點關注發電、熱電聯產、生物煉製以及特定工業領域的發展趨勢。本報告詳細評估了市場驅動因素和限制因素、政策和監管趨勢以及 BECCS 碳移除信用額不斷發展的價值鏈。該預測涵蓋了2025年至2035年各地區和主要碳捕集行業的年度和累計BECCS裝機容量增長及收入，尤其關注政策支持和基礎設施最為完善的北美和歐洲。該分析基於專有的專案追蹤、行業訪談以及一手和二手研究，從而提供嚴謹透明的展望。

Guidehouse Research預計，隨著買家越來越重視永久性碳移除，BECCS的價格將高於其他形式的碳信用額。雖然短期市場成長預計將集中在歐洲和北美，但產業和地區的多元化程度正在提高。一項關鍵發現是，BECCS目前約佔全球永久性碳移除交易金額的三分之二。該報告為利害關係人提供了克服市場障礙（例如價格不確定性、缺乏標準化和基礎設施限制）的實用建議，同時強調了穩健的專案完整性和透明的市場實踐對於BECCS長期可擴展性的重要性。

目錄

第一章：摘要整理

• 概述
• 市場預測

第二章：市場問題

• 引言
• 生物能源碳捕集與封存（BECCS）產業
• 驅動因素
  • 價值鏈管理（VCM）
  • 政策與監理發展
  • 預先市場購買及承購協議
• 限制因素
  • 強制合規市場
  • 缺乏標準化
  • 價格不確定性
  • 生命週期評估（LCA）的限制和可持續性標準
  • 碳捕集與封存（CCS）基礎建設問題

第三章 產業價值鏈：BECCS價值路徑

• VCM 市場流程
  • 認證體系
  • 認可的獨立機構
  • 專案開發商
  • CDR 承購方

第四章：市場預測

• 研究方法
• 全球預測
• 區域預測
• 北美
• 歐洲
• 亞太地區
• 拉丁美洲
• 各區域累計收入

  第五章：結論與建議

  • 三大要點
  • 建議
  • BECCS 開發商
  • 政策制定者和監管機構
  • 私人投資者
  • VCM 認證方案

第六章 縮寫與簡稱列表

第七章：目錄

第八章：圖表

第九章：範​​圍、來源、方法與註釋

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is emerging as a pivotal technology in the global effort to achieve net-negative emissions and address climate change. As climate policy advances, corporate net zero commitments intensify, and voluntary carbon markets evolve, BECCS stands out for its ability to permanently sequester biogenic CO2. The market is being shaped by growing demand for high-integrity, durable carbon credits, evolving regulatory frameworks in the Europe and the U.S., and the development of sustainable biomass supply chains. These trends are creating new opportunities for project developers, technology providers, investors, and policymakers seeking credible pathways to decarbonization.

Guidehouse Research approaches the BECCS market with a comprehensive, global perspective, analyzing developments across power generation, combined heat and power, biorefineries, and select industrial sectors. The report provides a detailed assessment of market drivers and barriers, policy and regulatory developments, and the evolving value chain for BECCS-generated carbon removal credits. Forecasts cover annual and cumulative BECCS capacity additions and revenue by region and primary capture sector from 2025 to 2035, with a focus on North America and Europe, where policy support and infrastructure are most advanced. The analysis draws on proprietary project tracking, industry interviews, and secondary research to deliver a rigorous and transparent outlook.

Guidehouse Research expects BECCS to command a price premium over other forms of carbon credits as buyers increasingly prioritize permanent removals. Near-term market growth will be concentrated in Europe and North America, but sectoral and regional diversity is emerging. One high-level finding: BECCS currently accounts for about two-thirds of all durable carbon removal credits sold globally. For stakeholders, the report offers actionable recommendations to navigate market barriers such as pricing opacity, lack of standardization, and infrastructure constraints, and highlights the importance of robust project integrity and transparent market practices for the long-term scalability of BECCS.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

• 1.1 Overview
• 1.2 Market Forecast

2. Market Issues

• 2.1 Introduction
• 2.2 BECCS Industries
• 2.3 Drivers
  • 2.3.1 VCM
  • 2.3.2 Policy and Regulatory Developments
    • 2.3.2.1 EU
    • 2.3.2.1.1 CRCF
    • 2.3.2.1.2 EU Emissions Trading System
    • 2.3.2.1.3 RED
    • 2.3.2.1.4 EU Purchasing Program
    • 2.3.2.1.5 European National Schemes
    • 2.3.2.2 U.S.
  • 2.3.3 Advanced Market Purchases and Offtake Agreements
• 2.4 Barriers
  • 2.4.1 Mandatory Compliance Markets
  • 2.4.2 Lack of Standardization
  • 2.4.3 Pricing Opacity
  • 2.4.4 LCA Restrictions and Sustainability Criteria
  • 2.4.5 CCS Infrastructure Issues

3. Industry Value Chain: BECCS Valorization Pathways

• 3.1 VCM Market Process
  • 3.1.1 Certification Schemes
  • 3.1.2 Accredited Independent Party
  • 3.1.3 Project Developer
  • 3.1.4 CDR Offtakers

4. Market Forecasts

• 4.1 Methodology
• 4.2 Global Forecasts
• 4.3 Regional Forecasts
  • 4.3.1 North America
  • 4.3.2 Europe
  • 4.3.3 Asia-Pacific
  • 4.3.4 Latin America
• 4.4 Cumulative Revenue by Region

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

• 5.1 Three Big Takeaways
• 5.2 Recommendations
  • 5.2.1 BECCS Developers
  • 5.2.2 Policy Makers and Regulators
  • 5.2.3 Private Sector Investors
  • 5.2.4 VCM Certification Schemes

6. Acronym and Abbreviation List

7. Table of Contents

8. Table of Charts and Figures

9. Scope of Study, Sources, Methodology and Notes

List of Tables

• Table 2-1 Classification of Common BiCRs Pathways
• Table 2-2. CDR.fyi Top Five Removal Pathways by Sum of Credits Sold
• Table 2-3 CRCF Categories
• Table 2-4 Revenue Stacking Pathways for a Typical U.S. Bioethanol BECCS Project

List of Figures

• Chart 1-1. Annual BECCS Capacity Additions by Region, World Markets: 2025-2035*
• Chart 2-1. CDR.fyi BECCS CDR Data: October 21, 2025
• Chart 2-2. Global CCUS Tracker BECCS Potential Projects by Capture Sector
• Chart 4-1. Annual BECCS Capacity Additions by Region, World Markets: 2025-2035
• Chart 4-2 Cumulative BECCS Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2025-2035*
• Chart 4-3 Cumulative BECCS Capacity by Capture Sector, World Markets: 2025-2035*
• Chart 4-4 Cumulative BECCS Capacity Additions by Capture Sector, North America: 2025-2035*
• Chart 4-5 Cumulative BECCS Capacity Additions by Capture Sector, Europe: 2025-2035*
• Chart 4-6 Cumulative BECCS Capacity Additions by Capture Sector, Asia-Pacific: 2025-2035*
• Chart 4-7 Cumulative BECCS Capacity Additions by Capture Sector, Latin America: 2025-2035*
• Chart 4-8 Cumulative BECCS Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2025-2035
• Figure 3-1. Pictorial Representation of the VCM Value Chain