小型模組化反應器與先進核能市場

Small Modular Reactors and Advanced Nuclear: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts, 2025-2034

出版日期: 2025年06月18日 | 出版商:

Guidehouse Research | 英文 43 Pages | 訂單完成後即時交付

價格

簡介目錄

小型模組化反應器 (SMR) 在未來十年內可能會發揮更大的作用，這得益於能源需求的不斷增長，尤其是對穩定且靈活的電力的需求，以及能源系統向脫碳的持續轉型。雖然風能和太陽能在能源結構中的比例將持續成長，但這些間歇性能源存在著根本性的限制。電池可以提供短期儲能，但價格昂貴且會隨著時間的推移而衰減。相反，SMR 可以全年全天候提供清潔、穩定的電力，維護成本極低。 SMR 具有可擴展性，可透過堆疊模組來滿足需求。先進反應器 (AR) 技術有潛力增加更多應用場景，例如工業級供熱、快速降級靈活性，甚至類似大型電池的儲能。

本報告提供了 2025 年至 2034 年 SMR 的產能成長和收入預測，並探討了該技術的主要推動因素和阻礙因素。預測依全球各地區（北美、歐洲、亞太、拉丁美洲、中東和非洲）、技術類型、規模、位置和反應器發電量進行部門。容量以兆瓦為單位，收入以2025年的美元計算。收入是指與反應器選址、設備和零件採購、建造、運作、維護以及燃料成本相關的初始成本。反應爐規模差異很大，且庫存的小型反應器（SMR）數量有限，因此對任何一年的預測都會有很大差異。反應器容量數據是每年10,000次迭代的平均值，可能與任何在建反應器的容量加起來不符。

Small modular reactors (SMRs) may play an increasing role in the next decade, catalyzed by accelerated energy demand, particularly firm power with flexibility, and the continuing transition to decarbonize the energy system. While wind and solar are a growing proportion of the energy portfolio, there are fundamental constraints to these intermittent energy sources. Batteries can provide short term energy storage but are expensive and degrade over time. Conversely, SMRs enable 24/7 clean firm power, with minimal maintenance throughout the year. SMRs are scalable, comprised of modules that can be stacked together to match demand. Advanced reactor (AR) technology may have added use cases, such as producing industrial-level heat, flexibility to ramp up and down quickly, and even store energy like a large battery.

This report provides forecasts for SMR capacity additions and revenue from 2025 to 2034, and explains the technology's primary drivers and barriers. Forecasts are segmented by global regions (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Middle East & Africa), as well as technology type, size, location, and reactor iteration. Capacity is in megawatts of electricity, and revenue is in 2025 U.S. dollars. Revenue refers to the upfront costs associated with the reactor's siting, equipment and components procurement, and construction, as well as operation, maintenance, and fuel costs. The forecast has a high variance in any given year because of the large variance in reactor size and the limited number of SMRs in the inventory. The capacity number is the average of what happens in each year across 10,000 iterations, so numbers may not total to specific reactor capacities in the pipeline.

1. Executive Summary

1.1 Market Introduction
1.2 Global Outlook

2. Market Issues

2.1 Introduction and Scope
2.2 Market Drivers
- 2.2.1 Industrial and Digital Infrastructure Needs
- 2.2.2 Modularity
- 2.2.3 Renewed Favorable Public Opinion
- 2.2.4 Flexibility and Load-Following Capabilities
2.3 Market Barriers
- 2.3.1 High Costs and Uncertainty
  - 2.3.1.1 Paper Reactors Feed Uncertainty
  - 2.3.1.2 Rising Fuel Costs
- 2.3.2 Regulatory and Licensing Hurdles
- 2.3.3 Supply Chain Issues
  - 2.3.3.1 SMR Labor Constraints
  - 2.3.3.2 Geopolitical Supply Constraints
- 2.3.4 Limited Demonstration Sites

3. Policy Review

3.1 Introduction
3.2 North America
- 3.2.1 U.S.
- 3.2.2 Canada
3.3 Europe
- 3.3.1 UK
- 3.3.2 France
3.4 Asia-Pacific
- 3.4.1 Russia
- 3.4.2 China
- 3.4.3 Japan
- 3.4.4 South Korea
3.5 Latin America and Middle East & Africa

4. Industry Value Chain

4.1 Nuclear Fuel Value Chain
4.2 Mining, Enrichment, and Fuel Fabrication Providers
- 4.2.1 North America
- 4.2.2 Europe
- 4.2.3 Asia-Pacific
- 4.2.4 Latin America
- 4.2.5 Middle East & Africa
4.3 Equipment and Nuclear Component Providers
4.4 Developers