電動車 (EV) 電池生產：對關鍵礦產供應鏈的依賴

目前和未來的脫碳要求（尤其是輕型汽車）正在推動交通運輸的電氣化轉變，汽車製造商正在製定雄心勃勃的生產目標。因此，為了支持數百萬輛插電式電動車 (PEV)，先進電池的產量正在大幅增加，原料的採購也隨之增加，特別是鋰、鎳和鈷。開採和提煉這些礦物的供應鏈目前集中在特定地區，特別是中國，幾乎在每個市場都佔據主導份額。公司和政府都希望提高這些材料的產量，同時努力增加整體供應，實現來源多元化並降低中斷風險。

雖然這些關鍵礦物的新來源已經建立，但供應中斷（包括供應短缺）可能會減緩廣泛電氣化和相關的全球溫室氣體排放減少的進展。為了使這項轉型取得成功，利害關係人必須建立更在地化的新供應鏈，透過回收建立循環生態系統以減少對開採的依賴，我們必須創新方法來減少對能源的依賴。

本報告探討了電動車 (EV) 電池的當前需求和驅動因素，這些因素導致電池礦物需求增加。我們也考慮了電池材料供應鏈多元化的動機以及供應鏈中斷的潛在負面後果。它還提出了重要建議，以避免短期短缺並在電池材料供應鏈中建立長期可持續性。

目錄

• 火花
• 情境
• 推薦
• 電動車對重要礦物的需求增加
  • 目前的供應鏈地理位置集中
  • 電動車的增加意味著更多、更大的電池
  • 建立供應鏈需要時間
  • 擴大回收規模需要數年時間
• 礦產資源嚴重短缺可能阻礙電動車的普及
  • 電池廠擴建可能無法及時完成
  • 中國汽車製造商可能會推翻傳統汽車製造商
  • 運輸設備脫碳的努力可能會受挫
• 汽車產業需打造彈性循環電池供應鏈
  • 建立健全的回收生態系統
  • 繼續為當地供應鏈提供激勵措施
  • 推廣替代電池化學材料
  • 確保強大的充電網絡

The shift to transportation electrification is driven by existing and future decarbonization requirements, particularly for light duty automobiles, and has resulted in automakers setting ambitious production goals. The result is an enormous increase in advanced battery cell production to support millions of plug-in EVs (PEVs), which will require a corresponding increase in raw material sourcing, particularly for lithium, nickel, and cobalt. The current supply chains for mining and refining these minerals are heavily focused in specific geographic areas, with China having an outsized share of nearly every market. Businesses and governments alike desire to increase production of these materials concurrent with efforts to increase the overall supply to diversify their sourcing and reduce the risk of disruption.

While these new sources for critical minerals are being established, disruptions in supply, including shortages, could delay progress toward widespread electrification and the related benefits in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. To make this transition successfully, stakeholders must build new, more localized supply chains, establish a circular ecosystem through recycling to reduce dependence on mining, and innovate ways to reduce the reliance on some of these materials.

This Guidehouse Insights Strategy Insight reviews the current demand and market drivers for EV batteries that are leading to increased demand for battery minerals. It explains the motivations for diversifying the battery material supply chain and the potential negative consequences of supply chain disruption. It also offers key recommendations for avoiding near-term shortages and establishing long-term sustainability in the battery material supply chain.

Table of Contents

Spark

Context

Recommendations

EVs Have Driven Increases in the Need for Critical Minerals

Current Supply Chains Are Concentrated Geographically

More EVs Mean More, and Bigger, Batteries

Building Supply Chains Takes Time

Recycling Will Take Years to Scale

Critical Mineral Shortages Could Short-Circuit EV Adoption

Battery Plants Might Not Scale in Time

Chinese Automakers Could Topple Legacy Automakers

Transportation Decarbonization Efforts Could Falter

The Auto Industry Must Build a Resilient, Circular Battery Supply Chain

Establish Robust Recycling Ecosystems

Continue Providing Incentives for Localized Supply Chains

Promote Alternative Battery Chemistries

Ensure Robust Charging Networks

List of Figures

• LD BEV Advanced Battery Manufacturing by Region, World Markets: 2023-2032