西非上游油氣：市場佔有率分析、產業趨勢與統計及成長預測（2026-2031 年）

根據 Mordor Intelligence 預測，西非上游油氣市場規模預計在 2025 年達到 102.2 億美元，在 2026 年達到 106.2 億美元，在 2031 年達到 130.8 億美元，2026 年至 2031 年的複合年成長率為 4.25%。

本報告按部署地點（陸上/海上）、資源類型（原油/天然氣）、油井類型（傳統型/傳統型）、服務（探勘、開發/生產、退役）和地區（奈及利亞、加納、貝南、布吉納法索、尼日、馬利共和國以及西非其他地區）進行細分。市場規模和預測均以美元計價。

西非上游油氣市場趨勢及洞察。

深海油氣發現使得原油生產能夠以較低的損益平衡點進行。

塞內加爾的桑戈馬爾油田於2024年6月投產，並計畫在2025年初將日產量提升至10萬桶。該專案透過海底回接避免了獨立FPSO的成本，在布蘭特原油價格為每桶60美元的情況下，實現了25%的內部報酬率。奈及利亞的邦加西南油田於2024年12月獲批，該項目採用了類似的結構，將20口油井連接到現有的邦加FPSO上，從而將盈虧平衡點降低至每桶35美元，並將投資回收期縮短至四年。茅利塔尼亞的大托爾圖阿馬梅姆二期計畫將與塞內加爾共用浮體式基礎設施，每年供應250萬噸液化天然氣，與待開發區計畫相比，每噸液化天然氣的資本密集度降低了一半。這些單位成本優勢正在吸引新的資金，例如Afleximbank於2024年宣布的50億美元信貸額度，該額度專門用於天然氣貨幣化和海底設施建設。因此，深海計畫在成本曲線方面如今已與美國頁岩氣計畫不相上下，西非在全球供應結構中的地位也日益提升。

財政改革以增強投資吸引力

奈及利亞的《石油工業法》以產量分成協議取代了不透明的合資條款，並引入了7.5%至10%的分級特許權使用費制度，有利於小規模、埋藏較深的油田。 2024年舉行的首次許可證競標籌集了18億美元的簽約獎金，並承諾開展覆蓋8500平方公里的3D地震探勘。根據獨立營運商模式，財務風險的降低使專案的加權平均資本成本從《石油工業法》實施前的18%至20%降至12%至14%。加納於2025年1月推出了數位化許可證入口網站，公開了先前僅在私人資料室提供的蘊藏量和生產歷史資料。早期數據顯示，競標準備期已從18個月縮短至6個月，投資者群體也已擴展到傳統國際石油公司（IOC）之外。

尼日爾Delta輸油管沿線的武裝團體活動、竊盜和破壞

2023年至2024年間，奈及利亞因石油竊盜損失了33億美元，日產量比歐佩克限產標準低20萬桶，直到2024年底通過軍事干預才恢復供應。 2025年3月，邦尼島天然氣管道遭到破壞，導致奈及利亞液化天然氣公司（NLNG）產量下降20%，凸顯了其持續存在的脆弱性。如今，營運商每年預算5,000萬至8,000萬美元用於私人保全、​​無人機和社區計畫等累計保護措施。不斷上漲的成本正在擠壓陸上生產商的利潤空間，並加速國際石油公司（IOC）出售資產。因此，持續不斷的破壞行為正在打擊鑽探熱情，並將資金轉移到完全繞過陸上管道的近海盆地。

細分市場分析

預計到2025年，海上項目將佔西非上游油氣市場佔有率的65.5%，並預計到2031年將以6.5%的複合年成長率成長。由於回接（連接陸上管道）的規模經濟效應使得損益平衡點低於每桶40美元，預計西非與海上作業相關的上游油氣市場規模也將擴大。奈及利亞的邦加西南油田（Bonga Southwest）透過利用現有的FPSO基礎設施降低了初始成本，而塞內加爾的聖戈馬爾油田（Saint-Gomar）則透過使用租賃設備實現了25%的內部收益率。加納的阿戈戈FPSO（Agogo FPSO）日處理能力為8萬桶，計劃於2026年投產，其模組化設計尤為突出，如果蘊藏量耗盡，可以重新部署。

陸上石油生產仍然至關重要，但面臨結構性挑戰。尼日爾Delta地區的安全風險使物流和安保成本每桶增加5-8美元，迫使一些生產商使用駁船繞過受損的管道。殼牌公司以24億美元的價格將資產出售給復興石油公司，凸顯了風險調整後收益差距的擴大。像尼日爾的阿加德姆這樣的陸上前緣礦區，由於利用了與Delta地區風險隔離的專用出口管道，仍然能夠獲利。然而，獲利能力仍集中在政治和物流障礙相對較低、非技術風險可以透過數位監控降低的近海領域。

2025年，原油收入佔總收入的62.1%，而天然氣預計將以7.1%的複合年成長率成長，這主要得益於液化天然氣項目和國內供應義務的推動。一旦奈及利亞7號液化天然氣生產線（大托爾圖阿馬梅姆二期）年產能達800萬噸投入運作，西非油氣上游市場預計將迅速擴張。國內供應義務保障了受監管的最低價格。奈及利亞的目標是到2028年新建5吉瓦燃氣發電廠，在穩定運作條件下，這些電廠每天將消耗12億立方英尺天然氣。

原油仍然佔據主導地位，因為煉油能力瓶頸迫使石油生產以出口為導向。奈及利亞的丹戈特煉油廠（日產能65萬桶）計劃於2024年運作，但其產量僅能滿足國內需求的一小部分。豐富的地質資源也是關鍵因素。已探明的天然氣蘊藏量為25兆立方英尺，與370億桶能源當量的石油儲量相比，相形見絀。然而，更嚴格的天然氣燃燒處罰以及銷售管道向多個市場的拓展，正促使鑽探計畫轉向天然氣，原油和天然氣之間的利潤差距也逐年縮小。

其他好處：

• Excel格式的市場預測（ME）表
• 3個月的分析師支持

目錄

第1章：引言

• 研究假設和市場定義
• 調查範圍

第2章：調查方法

第3章執行摘要

第4章 市場狀況

• 市場概覽
• 市場促進因素
  • 深海新油田的發現使得以更低的損益平衡點生產原油成為可能。
  • 財政改革（例如奈及利亞的PIA）提高了投資吸引力。
  • 液化天然氣出口樞紐（GTA、NLNG 7）的發展正在促進天然氣開發。
  • 泛非能源銀行的崛起填補了資本缺口
  • 數位地下資料中心開放授權平台
  • 國際石油公司出售資產將提高現有礦區對獨立公司的價值。
• 市場限制因素
  • 尼日爾Delta地區輸油管沿線發生武裝團體活動、竊盜和破壞事件。
  • 歐佩克的產量配額和價格波動正在阻礙鑽探計畫。
  • 西方銀行在環境、社會和治理（ESG）方面的措施減少，導致企劃案融資收緊。
  • 歐盟甲烷收費機制推高了合規成本
• 供應鏈分析
• 監理情勢
• 技術展望
• 原油產量和消費量預測
• 天然氣生產與消費預測
• 非傳統資源（緻密油、油砂、深海油田）資本投資預測
• 波特五力模型

第5章 市場規模與成長預測

• 按部署位置
  • 陸上
  • 離岸
• 按資源類型
  • 原油
  • 天然氣
• 按井類型
  • 傳統型
  • 傳統型
• 按服務
  • 探勘
  • 開發與生產
  • 退休
• 按地區
  • 奈及利亞
  • 迦納
  • 貝南
  • 布吉納法索
  • 尼日
  • 馬利共和國
  • 西非其他地區

第6章 競爭情勢

• 市場集中度
• 策略趨勢（併購、聯盟、購電協議）
• 市場佔有率分析（主要公司的市場排名和市場佔有率）
• 公司簡介
  • Shell plc
  • TotalEnergies SE
  • Eni SpA
  • Exxon Mobil Corporation
  • Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd
  • Ghana National Petroleum Corporation
  • BP plc
  • Chevron Corporation
  • Seplat Energy plc
  • Kosmos Energy Ltd
  • Tullow Oil plc
  • Woodside Energy Group Ltd
  • Azule Energy
  • Vaalco Energy Inc
  • Perenco SA
  • Savannah Energy plc
  • Panoro Energy ASA
  • BW Energy ASA
  • Africa Oil Corporation
  • Cairn（Capricorn）Energy plc
  • Petrofac Ltd（services）

第7章 市場機會與未來展望

According to Mordor Intelligence, the West Africa oil and gas upstream market size is projected to be USD 10.22 billion in 2025, USD 10.62 billion in 2026, and reach USD 13.08 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 4.25% from 2026 to 2031.

This report is Segmented by Location of Deployment (Onshore and Offshore), Resource Type (Crude Oil and Natural Gas), Well Type (Conventional and Unconventional), Service (Exploration, Development and Production, and Decommissioning), and Geography (Nigeria, Ghana, Benin, Burkina Faso, Niger, Mali, and Rest of West Africa). The Market Sizes and Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD).

West Africa Oil And Gas Upstream Market Trends and Insights

Deep-Water Discoveries Unlocking Low-Breakeven Barrels

Senegal's Sangomar achieved first oil in June 2024 and climbed to 100,000 barrels per day in early 2025, delivering a 25% internal rate of return at USD 60 Brent after sidestepping standalone FPSO costs through subsea tie-backs. Nigeria's Bonga Southwest, sanctioned in December 2024, mirrors the architecture by tying 20 wells into the existing Bonga FPSO, lowering breakeven to USD 35 per barrel and shortening payback to four years. Mauritania's Greater Tortue Ahmeyim Phase 2 will add 2.5 million t pa of LNG by sharing floating infrastructure with Senegal, halving per-ton capital intensity relative to greenfield schemes. These unit-cost wins attract fresh liquidity, such as Afreximbank's USD 5 billion facility dedicated to gas monetization and subsea packages announced in 2024. As a result, deep-water projects now rival U.S. shale on cost curves, repositioning West Africa within global supply stacks.

Fiscal Reforms Lifting Investment Attractiveness

Nigeria's Petroleum Industry Act replaced opaque joint-venture terms with production-sharing contracts and a progressive 7.5-10% royalty ladder that rewards deeper, smaller fields. The inaugural 2024 licensing round raised USD 1.8 billion in signature bonuses and committed to 8,500 km2 of new 3D seismic. Lower fiscal risk shaved the project's weighted-average cost of capital to 12-14%, down from 18-20% pre-PIA, according to independent operator models. Ghana launched a digital licensing portal in January 2025, broadcasting reserve and production histories that previously circulated only in closed data rooms. Early evidence shows bid-preparation times falling from 18 months to six, broadening the investor base beyond traditional IOCs.

Militancy, Theft & Sabotage Along Niger-Delta Pipelines

Nigeria lost USD 3.3 billion to crude theft between 2023-2024, cutting flows 200,000 bpd below its OPEC cap until military interventions restored volumes late 2024. A March 2025 sabotage of a Bonny Island feed-gas line forced a 20% NLNG output cut, spotlighting continued vulnerability. Operators now budget USD 50-80 million yearly for private security, drones, and community programs that double as protection payments. Rising costs erode margins for onshore producers and accelerate IOC divestments. Persistent vandalism, therefore, drags drilling sentiment and redirects capital to offshore basins that bypass onshore pipelines entirely.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

1. LNG Export Build-Out Spurring Gas Developments
2. Rise of Pan-African Energy Banks Filling Capital Gap
3. OPEC Quotas & Price Volatility Dampening Drilling Plans

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Offshore projects captured 65.5% of West Africa's oil and gas upstream market share in 2025 and are set to expand at a 6.5% CAGR to 2031. The West Africa oil and gas upstream market size related to offshore activity is forecast to climb in tandem as tie-back economics unlock breakevens below USD 40 per barrel. Nigeria's Bonga Southwest employs existing FPSO infrastructure to cut upfront costs, whereas Senegal's Sangomar leverages leased units to deliver 25% internal rates of return. Modularity stands out; Ghana's 80,000 bpd Agogo FPSO, scheduled for 2026 first oil, can be redeployed if reserves fall short.

Onshore output remains material yet structurally challenged. Niger-Delta security premiums add USD 5-8 per-barrel logistics and security costs, compelling some producers to bypass vandalized lines with barges. Shell's USD 2.4 billion divestment to Renaissance underscores the widening risk-adjusted returns gap. Frontier onshore plays, such as Niger's Agadem, stay viable by using dedicated export lines isolated from Delta risks. Even so, capital gravitates offshore where political and logistical hurdles are comparatively lighter and digital monitoring lowers non-technical risk.

Crude oil generated 62.1% of 2025 revenue, but natural gas will grow at a 7.1% CAGR, propelled by LNG projects and domestic supply mandates. The West Africa oil and gas upstream market size tied to gas is slated to expand sharply once Nigeria LNG Train 7's 8 million t pa module and Greater Tortue Ahmeyim Phase 2 come on-stream. Domestic obligations guarantee a regulated floor price: Nigeria targets 5 GW of new gas power by 2028, absorbing 1.2 bcf/d at steady-state.

Crude retains primacy because refining bottlenecks force an export orientation. Nigeria's 650,000 bpd Dangote plant, online in 2024, covers only a fraction of national output. Geological endowment also matters; 25 tcf of proven gas pales beside 37 billion barrels of oil on an energy-equivalent basis. Still, improved flaring penalties and multi-market outlets are tipping drilling schedules toward gas, tightening the crude-gas revenue gap year over year.

Complete Report Scope:

• By Location of Deployment
  • Onshore
  • Offshore
• By Resource Type
  • Crude Oil
  • Natural Gas
• By Well Type
  • Conventional
  • Unconventional
• By Service
  • Exploration
  • Development and Production
  • Decomissioning
• By Geography
  • Nigeria
  • Ghana
  • Benin
  • Burkina Faso
  • Niger
  • Mali
  • Rest of West Africa

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

1. Shell plc
2. TotalEnergies SE
3. Eni SpA
4. Exxon Mobil Corporation
5. Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd
6. Ghana National Petroleum Corporation
7. BP plc
8. Chevron Corporation
9. Seplat Energy plc
10. Kosmos Energy Ltd
11. Tullow Oil plc
12. Woodside Energy Group Ltd
13. Azule Energy
14. Vaalco Energy Inc
15. Perenco SA
16. Savannah Energy plc
17. Panoro Energy ASA
18. BW Energy ASA
19. Africa Oil Corporation
20. Cairn (Capricorn) Energy plc
21. Petrofac Ltd (services)

Additional Benefits:

• The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
• 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

• 1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
• 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

• 4.1 Market Overview
• 4.2 Market Drivers
  • 4.2.1 Deep-water discoveries unlocking low-breakeven barrels
  • 4.2.2 Fiscal reforms (e.g., Nigeria PIA) lifting investment attractiveness
  • 4.2.3 LNG export build-out (GTA, NLNG 7) spurring gas developments
  • 4.2.4 Rise of pan-African energy banks filling capital gap
  • 4.2.5 Digital subsurface data hubs and open licensing platforms
  • 4.2.6 IOC divestments creating brown-field upside for independents
• 4.3 Market Restraints
  • 4.3.1 Militancy, theft & sabotage along Niger-Delta pipelines
  • 4.3.2 OPEC quotas and price volatility dampening drilling plans
  • 4.3.3 Western-bank ESG pull-back tightening project finance
  • 4.3.4 EU methane-fee regime raising compliance costs
• 4.4 Supply-Chain Analysis
• 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
• 4.6 Technological Outlook
• 4.7 Crude-Oil Production & Consumption Outlook
• 4.8 Natural-Gas Production & Consumption Outlook
• 4.9 Unconventional Resources CAPEX Outlook (tight oil, oil sands, deep-water)
• 4.10 Porter's Five Forces
  • 4.10.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
  • 4.10.2 Bargaining Power of Consumers
  • 4.10.3 Threat of New Entrants
  • 4.10.4 Threat of Substitutes
  • 4.10.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts

• 5.1 By Location of Deployment
  • 5.1.1 Onshore
  • 5.1.2 Offshore
• 5.2 By Resource Type
  • 5.2.1 Crude Oil
  • 5.2.2 Natural Gas
• 5.3 By Well Type
  • 5.3.1 Conventional
  • 5.3.2 Unconventional
• 5.4 By Service
  • 5.4.1 Exploration
  • 5.4.2 Development and Production
  • 5.4.3 Decomissioning
• 5.5 By Geography
  • 5.5.1 Nigeria
  • 5.5.2 Ghana
  • 5.5.3 Benin
  • 5.5.4 Burkina Faso
  • 5.5.5 Niger
  • 5.5.6 Mali
  • 5.5.7 Rest of West Africa

6 Competitive Landscape

• 6.1 Market Concentration
• 6.2 Strategic Moves (M&A, Partnerships, PPAs)
• 6.3 Market Share Analysis (Market Rank/Share for key companies)
• 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Products & Services, and Recent Developments)
  • 6.4.1 Shell plc
  • 6.4.2 TotalEnergies SE
  • 6.4.3 Eni SpA
  • 6.4.4 Exxon Mobil Corporation
  • 6.4.5 Nigerian National Petroleum Company Ltd
  • 6.4.6 Ghana National Petroleum Corporation
  • 6.4.7 BP plc
  • 6.4.8 Chevron Corporation
  • 6.4.9 Seplat Energy plc
  • 6.4.10 Kosmos Energy Ltd
  • 6.4.11 Tullow Oil plc
  • 6.4.12 Woodside Energy Group Ltd
  • 6.4.13 Azule Energy
  • 6.4.14 Vaalco Energy Inc
  • 6.4.15 Perenco SA
  • 6.4.16 Savannah Energy plc
  • 6.4.17 Panoro Energy ASA
  • 6.4.18 BW Energy ASA
  • 6.4.19 Africa Oil Corporation
  • 6.4.20 Cairn (Capricorn) Energy plc
  • 6.4.21 Petrofac Ltd (services)

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook

• 7.1 White-space & Unmet-Need Assessment