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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1939713

基礎油：市場佔有率分析、產業趨勢與統計、成長預測（2026-2031）

Base Oil - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2026 - 2031)
出版日期: | 出版商: Mordor Intelligence | 英文 120 Pages | 商品交期: 2-3個工作天內

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簡介目錄

預計基油市場將從 2025 年的 3,515 萬噸成長到 2026 年的 3,564 萬噸，到 2031 年將達到 3,818 萬噸，2026 年至 2031 年的複合年成長率為 1.40%。

基礎油市場-IMG1

基油市場的穩定成長主要受三大因素驅動：首先，基礎油市場正從I類基礎油向性能更高的II類和III類基礎油過渡；其次，全球排放法規日益嚴格；第三，合成油混合物在電動車（EV）主導中的作用日益增強。亞太地區在銷售方面領先，但中東和非洲地區的成長速度最快，這表明供應鏈正逐步向原油主導地區調整。儘管加氫處理技術是競爭優勢的關鍵，但由於閉合迴路與杜拜原油價格差收窄以及催化劑升級所需資本支出增加，煉油商正面臨利潤壓力。資料中心浸沒式冷卻劑和閉迴路再煉油舉措正在湧現新的機遇，以滿足循環經濟目標。

全球基礎油市場趨勢與洞察

亞太地區生產群集的快速工業化

亞太地區製造業的蓬勃發展正推動基油市場的大部分新增需求。預計到2024年，中國原油日加工量將達到1,480萬桶，將帶動金屬加工液和液壓油的強勁需求。日益壯大的煉油和石化一體化綜合體網路為生產商提供了更大的營運柔軟性，使其能夠將生產轉向盈利最高的基料等級。馬來西亞國家石油公司（Petronas）計劃在2025年至2027年期間實現日產相當於200萬桶的基礎油產量，併計劃於2028年運作生物精煉，從而向下游拓展特種化學品業務。這些投資將有助於該地區在基油市場確立領先地位，並加速傳統I類基礎油產能的更新換代。

更嚴格的歐盟7和國七排放標準提振了III/IV類柴油車的需求

歐盟7排放標準的實施要求汽車製造商在所有輕型汽油引擎中安裝顆粒物過濾系統，這增加了對超低揮發性III類基礎油的需求。中國的同期標準－國七標準將加強對低SAPS潤滑油的要求，預計2022年至2026年間核准的44個煉油廠計劃將提振國內供應。將於2025年3月31日生效的ILSAC GF-7標準要求燃油經濟性提高10%，將促使調和商轉向更高品質的基礎油[ORONITE.COM]。這推動了對加氫裂解裝置和加氫異構化裝置的投資，加速了基礎油市場的優質化。

布蘭特原油和杜拜原油價格差的波動對利潤率帶來壓力。

2024年，布蘭特原油與杜拜原油的價差一度轉為負值，顯示中硫原油供應趨緊，而中硫原油是VGO（真空減壓瓦斯油）基礎油原料的關鍵成分。科威特、阿曼和奈及利亞新建的煉油廠提高了全球煉油廠產能，擠壓了利潤空間，並導致一些營運商，例如利安德巴塞爾休士頓煉油廠，在2025年初退出煉油廠業務。這種供應緊張的局面迫使基礎油市場的獨立企業降低運轉率並關閉老舊設施。

細分市場分析

第二類基礎油憑藉其均衡的性能和成本優勢以及完善的分銷網路，預計將在2025年繼續保持其在基油市場的領先地位，市場佔有率將達到42.20%。殼牌公司位於韋瑟林工廠的30萬噸轉化計劃凸顯了加氫裂解產品的持續可靠性。儘管第三類基礎油的絕對銷量較小，但由於歐7排放標準和電動車冷卻液規範的推廣（這些規範要求超低揮發性和高抗氧化性），預計到2031年，其複合年成長率將達到4.05%。因此，在預測期內，第三類基礎油的市場規模預計將以高於其他等級基礎油的速度成長。

第一類基礎油在某些需要溶解性的橡膠加工和金屬加工液領域仍然存在，但由於經濟效益下降，其市場逐漸萎縮。第五類基礎油則以其多樣化的化學成分（包括用於生物潤滑劑的仲多元醇酯）補充了這條創新路徑。整體而言，基油市場正朝著更高的API等級發展，以滿足更嚴格的OEM規格和永續性目標。

基油報告按基料類型（I類、II類、III類、IV類及其他）、應用領域（引擎油、變速箱及齒輪油、金屬加工液、液壓油、潤滑脂及其他應用）和地區（亞太地區、北美地區、歐洲地區、南美地區以及中東和非洲地區）進行細分。市場預測以百萬噸為單位。

區域分析

到2025年，亞太地區將佔全球原油產量的46.30%，這主要得益於中國原油日加工量創紀錄的1480萬桶，以及印度計劃於2025年前完成的19兆至22兆盧比的擴建項目。基油市場正受益於垂直一體化的綜合設施，這些設施可以根據利潤率在燃料、化學品和基料生產之間靈活切換。日本和韓國正在為電子產品的溫度控管提供精密合成技術，而東南亞國家則正在擴大產能以滿足區域工業需求。

中東和非洲地區將呈現全球最快的成長速度，到2031年年均複合成長率將達到3.33%。阿布達比國家石油公司（ADNOC）投資35億美元的魯瓦伊斯原油靈活化計劃將可加工重質高硫原油，並最佳化II類和III類原油產品。在歐洲，利潤率正在下降，脫碳轉型正在進行中，道達爾能源的格蘭德普伊煉油廠計劃於2026年成為零產油平台。

在北美，頁岩油經濟效益正推動對特種PAO和III類計劃的投資增加。雪佛龍帕薩迪納煉油廠的升級改造使其產能提升至每日12.5萬桶，並提高了噴射機燃料的柔軟性。在南美，巴西石化產業的整合預計將帶來溫和的成長，但宏觀經濟的波動抑制了大規模投資。區域趨勢總體表明，產能正逐步向石油主導且需求旺盛的地區擴散，而傳統中心則透過專業轉型進行調整。

其他福利：

  • Excel格式的市場預測（ME）表
  • 分析師支持（3個月）

目錄

第1章 引言

  • 研究假設和市場定義
  • 調查範圍

第2章調查方法

第3章執行摘要

第4章 市場情勢

  • 市場概覽
  • 市場促進因素
    • 亞太地區生產群集的快速工業化
    • 更嚴格的歐7和國七排放氣體標準推動了對第三/四類柴油的需求
    • 電動車（EV）溫度控管系統對高性能潤滑油的需求不斷成長
    • 資料中心浸沒式冷卻液（新型合成基料）的擴展
    • 基於循環經濟需求的閉合迴路再煉油經濟學
  • 市場限制
    • 快速替代一級產能
    • 布蘭特原油和杜拜原油價格差的波動正在給利潤率帶來壓力。
    • 歐盟即將實施聚丙烯酸類物質（PAO）微塑膠分類（ECHA）
  • 價值鏈分析
  • 波特五力模型
    • 供應商的議價能力
    • 買方的議價能力
    • 新進入者的威脅
    • 替代品的威脅
    • 競爭程度

第5章 市場規模與成長預測

  • 依基料類型
    • 第一組
    • 第二組
    • 第三組
    • 第四組
    • 其他
  • 透過使用
    • 機油
    • 變速箱油和齒輪油
    • 金屬加工油
    • 油壓
    • 潤滑脂
    • 其他用途
  • 按地區
    • 亞太地區
      • 中國
      • 印度
      • 日本
      • 韓國
      • 馬來西亞
      • 印尼
      • 越南
      • 泰國
      • 亞太其他地區
    • 北美洲
      • 美國
      • 加拿大
      • 墨西哥
    • 歐洲
      • 德國
      • 英國
      • 法國
      • 義大利
      • 西班牙
      • 北歐國家
      • 土耳其
      • 俄羅斯
      • 其他歐洲地區
    • 南美洲
      • 巴西
      • 阿根廷
      • 哥倫比亞
      • 其他南美洲
    • 中東和非洲
      • 沙烏地阿拉伯
      • 阿拉伯聯合大公國
      • 卡達
      • 埃及
      • 南非
      • 奈及利亞
      • 其他中東和非洲地區

第6章 競爭情勢

  • 市場集中度
  • 策略趨勢
  • 市佔率（%）/排名分析
  • 公司簡介
    • ADNOC
    • Chevron Corporation
    • China Petrochemical Corporation（SINOPEC）
    • CNOOC Limited
    • Exxon Mobil Corporation
    • Formosa Petrochemical Corporation
    • Gazprom Neft PJSC
    • GS Caltex Corporation
    • Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited
    • Indian Oil Corporation Ltd
    • LUKOIL
    • Nynas AB
    • Petrobras
    • PetroChina
    • PETRONAS Lubricants International
    • Philips 66 Company
    • Repsol
    • Saudi Arabian Oil Co.
    • Sepahan Oil Company
    • Shandong Qingyuan Group Co. Ltd.
    • Shell plc
    • SK Innovation Co. Ltd.
    • TotalEnergies

第7章 市場機會與未來展望

簡介目錄
Product Code: 65723

The Base Oil market is expected to grow from 35.15 million tons in 2025 to 35.64 million tons in 2026 and is forecast to reach 38.18 million tons by 2031 at 1.40% CAGR over 2026-2031.

Base Oil - Market - IMG1

The measured growth of the base oil market is underpinned by three forces: the migration from Group I to higher-performance Group II and III stocks, tightening global emission rules, and the expanding role of synthetic formulations in electric-vehicle (EV) drivetrains. Asia-Pacific commands volume leadership, yet the Middle East and Africa records the fastest expansion, signaling a gradual realignment of supply chains toward crude-advantaged regions. Competitive positioning hinges on hydroprocessing technology, while refiners confront margin pressure from compressed Brent-Dubai spreads and rising capital outlays for catalyst upgrades. Opportunities emerge in immersion-cooling fluids for data centers and closed-loop re-refining initiatives that meet circular-economy targets.

Global Base Oil Market Trends and Insights

Rapid Industrialization Across APAC Production Clusters

Asia-Pacific's manufacturing boom underpins a significant share of incremental base oil market demand. China processed 14.8 million barrels per day of crude in 2024, creating robust pull for metal-working and hydraulic fluids. An expanding network of integrated refinery-petrochemical complexes increases operational flexibility, enabling producers to shift yields toward the most profitable base-stock grades. PETRONAS projects 2 million barrels of oil-equivalent output per day in its 2025-2027 outlook, with a downstream push into specialty chemicals supported by a biorefinery startup in 2028. These investments solidify the region's pre-eminence in the base oil market and accelerate the displacement of legacy Group I capacity.

Stricter Euro 7 and China VII Emission Norms Boosting Group III/IV Demand

The adoption of Euro 7 standards obliges automakers to fit particulate-filter systems across all light-duty gasoline engines, upping demand for ultra-low-volatility Group III stocks. China's parallel China VII framework intensifies the requirement for low-SAPS lubricants, while forty-four refining projects approved between 2022-2026 are poised to reinforce local supply. ILSAC GF-7, effective 31 March 2025, calls for a 10% fuel-economy gain, nudging blenders toward higher-quality base oils [ORONITE.COM]. Hydrocracking and hydro-isomerization units thus attract capital, accelerating the premiumization of the base oil market.

Volatile Brent-Dubai Crude Differentials Squeezing Margins

The Brent-Dubai spread turned negative at times in 2024, signaling scarce medium-sour barrels crucial for VGO-based base-oil feed. New Kuwait, Oman, and Nigeria refineries lifted global capacity, depressing margins and driving some operators, such as LyondellBasell Houston, to exit refining by early 2025. The crunch pressures independent players in the base oil market to trim runs or shutter older assets.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

  1. Rising Demand for High-Performance Lubricants in EV Thermal-Management Systems
  2. Expansion of Data-Center Immersion-Cooling Fluids
  3. Impending Micro-Plastic Classification of PAOs in the EU

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Group II maintained leadership with 42.20% of the base oil market share in 2025, owing to its balanced performance-cost equation and established distribution networks. Shell's 300,000-ton conversion at Wesseling underscores sustained confidence in hydrocracked stocks. Group III, though smaller on an absolute basis, advances at a 4.05% CAGR to 2031, buoyed by Euro 7 and EV-cooling mandates that call for ultra-low volatility and high oxidation resistance. The base oil market size for Group III is thus poised to expand faster than any other grade during the forecast horizon.

Group I endures in select rubber-processing and metal-working fluids requiring solvency, yet closures continue as economics deteriorate. Group V's diverse chemistries, including secondary polyol esters for bio-lubricants, round out innovation pathways. Altogether, the base oil market is migrating toward higher API groups to meet stricter OEM specifications and sustainability goals.

The Base Oil Report is Segmented by Base-Stock Type (Group I, Group II, Group III, Group IV, and Others), Application (Engine Oils, Transmission and Gear Oils, Metalworking Fluids, Hydraulic Fluids, Greases, and Other Applications), and Geography ( Asia-Pacific, North America, Europe, South America, and Middle-East and Africa). The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Volume (Million Tons).

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific generated 46.30% of 2025 volume, underpinned by China's record 14.8 million barrels-per-day crude runs and India's INR 1.9-2.2 lakh crore expansion program slated for completion by 2025. The base oil market benefits from vertically integrated complexes able to toggle between fuels, chemicals, and base stocks as margins dictate. Japan and South Korea supply precision synthetic technology for electronics thermal management, while Southeast Asian nations add capacity to serve regional industrial demand.

The Middle East and Africa posts a 3.33% CAGR to 2031, the fastest globally. ADNOC's USD 3.5 billion Ruwais Crude Flexibility Project enables processing heavier sour crudes, optimizing Group II and III output. Europe contends with margin compression and decarbonization pivots such as TotalEnergies' Grandpuits conversion into a zero-crude platform by 2026.

North America, bolstered by shale-oil economics, invests in specialty PAO and Group III projects; Chevron's Pasadena upgrade lifts throughput to 125,000 barrels per day while raising jet-fuel flexibility. South America enjoys moderate upside from Brazil's petrochemical integration, although macro volatility dampens large-scale investments. Collectively, geographic dynamics reflect a gradual diffusion of capacity into crude-advantaged and demand-rich locales while traditional centers adapt through specialization.

  1. ADNOC
  2. Chevron Corporation
  3. China Petrochemical Corporation (SINOPEC)
  4. CNOOC Limited
  5. Exxon Mobil Corporation
  6. Formosa Petrochemical Corporation
  7. Gazprom Neft PJSC
  8. GS Caltex Corporation
  9. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited
  10. Indian Oil Corporation Ltd
  11. LUKOIL
  12. Nynas AB
  13. Petrobras
  14. PetroChina
  15. PETRONAS Lubricants International
  16. Philips 66 Company
  17. Repsol
  18. Saudi Arabian Oil Co.
  19. Sepahan Oil Company
  20. Shandong Qingyuan Group Co. Ltd.
  21. Shell plc
  22. SK Innovation Co. Ltd.
  23. TotalEnergies

Additional Benefits:

  • The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
  • 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

  • 1.1 Study Assumptions and Market Definition
  • 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

  • 4.1 Market Overview
  • 4.2 Market Drivers
    • 4.2.1 Rapid industrialisation across APAC production clusters
    • 4.2.2 Stricter Euro 7 and China VII emission norms boosting Group III/IV demand
    • 4.2.3 Rising demand for high-performance lubricants in EV thermal-management systems
    • 4.2.4 Expansion of data-centre immersion-cooling fluids (novel synthetic base-stocks)
    • 4.2.5 Closed-loop re-refining economics under circular-economy mandates
  • 4.3 Market Restraints
    • 4.3.1 Rapid substitution away from Group I capacities
    • 4.3.2 Volatile Brent-Dubai crude differentials squeezing margins
    • 4.3.3 Impending micro-plastic classification of PAOs in the EU (ECHA)
  • 4.4 Value Chain Analysis
  • 4.5 Porter's Five Forces
    • 4.5.1 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
    • 4.5.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers
    • 4.5.3 Threat of New Entrants
    • 4.5.4 Threat of Substitutes
    • 4.5.5 Degree of Competition

5 Market Size and Growth Forecasts (Volume)

  • 5.1 By Base-Stock Type
    • 5.1.1 Group I
    • 5.1.2 Group II
    • 5.1.3 Group III
    • 5.1.4 Group IV
    • 5.1.5 Others
  • 5.2 By Application
    • 5.2.1 Engine Oils
    • 5.2.2 Transmission and Gear Oils
    • 5.2.3 Metalworking Fluids
    • 5.2.4 Hydraulic Fluids
    • 5.2.5 Greases
    • 5.2.6 Other Applications
  • 5.3 By Geography
    • 5.3.1 Asia-Pacific
      • 5.3.1.1 China
      • 5.3.1.2 India
      • 5.3.1.3 Japan
      • 5.3.1.4 South Korea
      • 5.3.1.5 Malaysia
      • 5.3.1.6 Indonesia
      • 5.3.1.7 Vietnam
      • 5.3.1.8 Thailand
      • 5.3.1.9 Rest of Asia-Pacific
    • 5.3.2 North America
      • 5.3.2.1 United States
      • 5.3.2.2 Canada
      • 5.3.2.3 Mexico
    • 5.3.3 Europe
      • 5.3.3.1 Germany
      • 5.3.3.2 United Kingdom
      • 5.3.3.3 France
      • 5.3.3.4 Italy
      • 5.3.3.5 Spain
      • 5.3.3.6 Nordic Countries
      • 5.3.3.7 Turkey
      • 5.3.3.8 Russia
      • 5.3.3.9 Rest of Europe
    • 5.3.4 South America
      • 5.3.4.1 Brazil
      • 5.3.4.2 Argentina
      • 5.3.4.3 Colombia
      • 5.3.4.4 Rest of South America
    • 5.3.5 Middle-East and Africa
      • 5.3.5.1 Saudi Arabia
      • 5.3.5.2 United Arab Emirates
      • 5.3.5.3 Qatar
      • 5.3.5.4 Egypt
      • 5.3.5.5 South Africa
      • 5.3.5.6 Nigeria
      • 5.3.5.7 Rest of Middle-East and Africa

6 Competitive Landscape

  • 6.1 Market Concentration
  • 6.2 Strategic Moves
  • 6.3 Market Share (%)/Ranking Analysis
  • 6.4 Company Profiles (includes Global level Overview, Market level overview, Core Segments, Financials as available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for key companies, Products and Services, and Recent Developments)
    • 6.4.1 ADNOC
    • 6.4.2 Chevron Corporation
    • 6.4.3 China Petrochemical Corporation (SINOPEC)
    • 6.4.4 CNOOC Limited
    • 6.4.5 Exxon Mobil Corporation
    • 6.4.6 Formosa Petrochemical Corporation
    • 6.4.7 Gazprom Neft PJSC
    • 6.4.8 GS Caltex Corporation
    • 6.4.9 Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited
    • 6.4.10 Indian Oil Corporation Ltd
    • 6.4.11 LUKOIL
    • 6.4.12 Nynas AB
    • 6.4.13 Petrobras
    • 6.4.14 PetroChina
    • 6.4.15 PETRONAS Lubricants International
    • 6.4.16 Philips 66 Company
    • 6.4.17 Repsol
    • 6.4.18 Saudi Arabian Oil Co.
    • 6.4.19 Sepahan Oil Company
    • 6.4.20 Shandong Qingyuan Group Co. Ltd.
    • 6.4.21 Shell plc
    • 6.4.22 SK Innovation Co. Ltd.
    • 6.4.23 TotalEnergies

7 Market Opportunities and Future Outlook

  • 7.1 White-space and Unmet-Need Assessment
  • 7.2 Renewable/Bio-based PAO commercial scale-up
  • 7.3 Integrated re-refining and virgin-base-oil hubs