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1852207

撒哈拉以南非洲汽車市場：市場佔有率分析、行業趨勢、統計數據和成長預測（2025-2030 年）

Sub Saharan Africa Automotive - Market Share Analysis, Industry Trends & Statistics, Growth Forecasts (2025 - 2030)
出版日期: | 出版商: Mordor Intelligence | 英文 120 Pages | 商品交期: 2-3個工作天內

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簡介目錄

預計到 2025 年，撒哈拉以南非洲汽車市場規模將達到 224.5 億美元，到 2030 年將達到 284.2 億美元，在預測期內複合年成長率為 4.83%。

撒哈拉以南非洲汽車市場-IMG1

儘管貨幣波動和基礎設施持續不足，但加速的都市化、蓬勃發展的叫車車隊以及政府對本地組裝的獎勵，正幫助維持整體發展動能。衣索比亞和南非的電氣化舉措顯示需求結構正在多元化，但由於成熟的燃料物流和服務網路，柴油平台仍佔據主導地位。灰色進口活動繼續抑制授權經銷商的銷售，但結構化的車隊融資計畫正在支持叫車業者購買新車。在非洲大陸自由貿易區（AfCFTA）關稅減讓的支持下，原始設備製造商（OEM）與本地組裝建立的策略夥伴關係，加強了區域供應鏈一體化。

撒哈拉以南非洲汽車市場趨勢與洞察

中產階級的壯大與都市化

每年4.1%的城市人口成長率將購買力轉移到經銷商網路、融資通路和售後服務集中的大都會區。奈及利亞、肯亞和加納的中等收入家庭傾向於價格分佈的車型，加劇了中國和印度汽車製造商之間的競爭。緊湊型SUV和掀背車因其在堵塞道路上的操控性而備受青睞，而郊區消費者則依賴都市區置換車輛增加帶來的二手車庫存成長。金融機構的分佈也受到就業集中的影響，導致人口超過百萬的城市提供的汽車金融產品數量是農村地區的五倍。疲軟的該地貨幣降低了進口車的購買力，但採礦業相關的薪資成長在一定程度上抵消了價格壓力，並支撐了需求。

叫車平台的激增將加速車輛更新換代。

來自 Move 等供應商提供的結構化車隊融資方案，使叫車司機能夠繞過傳統的信貸障礙，從而提振撒哈拉以南非洲汽車市場的多年基準需求。叫車每天運行 8-12 小時，大約是私家車利用率的四倍，因此更換週期縮短至三到四年。這種可預測的周期使汽車製造商能夠將庫存計劃與平台採購計劃相匹配，從而在消費者信心疲軟時期保護車隊。預計到 2025 年，奈及利亞、肯亞和南非的活躍叫車司機總合將超過 45 萬，而平台向二線城市的擴張將進一步深化潛在需求。政府機構日益認知到叫車車隊是交通運輸服務正規化的催化劑，衣索比亞和加納已為用於叫車的低排放氣體車輛提供關稅優惠。這促進了車隊規模的成長，並降低了許多市場零售融資管道受限的風險。

進口二手車的優勢

根據非洲汽車工業協會預測，到2024年，撒哈拉以南非洲地區83%的輕型車輛註冊量將為二手。南非稅務局的海關數據顯示，二手與新車的價格差異可達45%至60%，影響消費者的購買選擇。預計到2030年，富裕經濟體註銷內燃機車輛的計畫每年將使該地區的出口潛力增加1500萬輛，除非更嚴格的進口品質標準得到落實，否則這將使該地區的高排放氣體車輛保有量持續存在。聯合國歐洲經濟委員會（UNECE）的合格通訊協定旨在遏制不合格車輛的流入，但跨境執法力度仍不均衡，限制了其有效性。

細分市場分析

到2024年，運動型多用途車（SUV）將佔據撒哈拉以南非洲汽車市場36.75%的佔有率，這得益於其適應各種路況的靈活車身高度，預計到2030年，其複合年成長率將達到5.04%。轎車在商用和車隊採購中仍然佔有一席之地，但隨著消費者轉向跨界車型，其市場佔有率持續下滑。比亞迪和奇瑞等中國廠商透過提供本地組裝的插電式混合動力SUV，並以低於日本傳統車型的價格銷售，加劇了市場競爭，從而擴大了其在潛在購車者中的影響力。在肯亞和加納，由於交通堵塞，小型車更受歡迎，掀背車在入門級市場佔據主導地位。在缺乏正規公共交通系統的城郊地區，廂型車填補了商業性出行的空白，進一步豐富了撒哈拉以南非洲汽車市場的車型多樣性。

除首都城市以外，其他地區的鋪裝道路密度仍然較低，且洪水頻傳，因此底盤的堅固性成為購車的關鍵因素。 SUV還能提供更佳的駕駛視野，降低交通壅塞的風險。預計到2030年，撒哈拉以南非洲SUV衍生的市場規模將有所成長，這主要得益於私人購車和叫車車隊的普及。

預計到2024年，乘用車將佔撒哈拉以南非洲汽車市場銷量的74.33%，年複合成長率（CAGR）為5.65%，這與中產階級的壯大相符。輕型商用車（LCV）受益於電子商務的快速發展，尤其是在奈及利亞和肯亞，當地的末端配送公司正在租賃專為密集都市區路線最佳化的小型貨車。中型和重型卡車是推動整體市場成長的主要動力，這與南非、尚比亞和安哥拉的商品出口週期密切相關。叫車車隊透過結構化融資方案降低前期成本，從而消化了轎車和掀背車的庫存，支撐了強勁的乘用車需求。

在衣索比亞，政策主導的電氣化正在重塑乘用車市場結構，政府規定新註冊車輛中60%必須是電動車。相較之下，由於續航里程的限制，商用車電氣化較為緩慢，儘管約翰尼斯堡的一個試點計畫正在都市區物流循環中測試純電動貨車。乘用車領域的持續發展勢頭取決於貨幣穩定以及撒哈拉以南非洲汽車市場信貸准入改革的進展。

其他福利：

  • Excel格式的市場預測（ME）表
  • 3個月的分析師支持

目錄

第1章 引言

  • 研究假設和市場定義
  • 調查範圍

第2章調查方法

第3章執行摘要

第4章 市場情勢

  • 市場概覽
  • 市場促進因素
    • 中產階級的壯大與都市化
    • 叫車平台的激增將加速車輛更新換代。
    • 政府對CKD/SKD組裝的獎勵
    • 透過基礎設施建設改善道路連通性
    • 非洲大陸自由貿易區關稅削減將促進區域內貿易
    • 中國微型電動車進口成長填補了超低價市場空白。
  • 市場限制
    • 進口二手車的優勢
    • 消費信貸管道有限且利率高
    • 該地貨幣波動導致進口成本上升
    • 撒哈拉以南非洲地區碎片化的同化標準
  • 價值/供應鏈分析
  • 監管環境
  • 技術展望
  • 波特五力模型
    • 新進入者的威脅
    • 買方/消費者的議價能力
    • 供應商的議價能力
    • 替代品的威脅
    • 競爭對手之間的競爭

第5章 市場規模與成長預測

  • 按車身樣式
    • 掀背車
    • 轎車
    • 運動型多用途車（SUV）
    • 多用途/小型貨車
  • 按車輛類型
    • 搭乘用車
    • 輕型商用車
    • 中型/大型商用車輛
  • 按燃料類型
    • 汽油
    • 柴油引擎
    • 替代燃料（壓縮天然氣、液化石油氣、生質燃料）
  • 透過推進技術
    • 內燃機（ICE）
    • 混合動力電動車（HEV）
    • 電池電動車（BEV）
    • 插電式混合動力汽車（PHEV）
  • 按銷售管道
    • 授權OEM經銷商
    • 灰色進口/平行輸入
  • 按國家/地區
    • 南非
    • 奈及利亞
    • 肯亞
    • 衣索比亞
    • 迦納
    • 坦尚尼亞
    • 安哥拉
    • 尚比亞

第6章 競爭情勢

  • 市場集中度
  • 策略趨勢
  • 市佔率分析
  • 公司簡介
    • Toyota Motor Corporation
    • Volkswagen AG
    • Hyundai Motor Company
    • Nissan Motor Corporation
    • Isuzu Motors Ltd.
    • Ford Motor Company
    • Groupe Renault
    • Honda Motor Corporation
    • Suzuki Motor Corporation
    • Subaru Corporation
    • Stellantis NV
    • Daimler AG（Mercedes-Benz）
    • BYD Co.
    • Geely Auto Group
    • Changan Auto
    • JAC Motors
    • BAIC Group
    • Tata Motors
    • Mahindra & Mahindra
    • Innoson Vehicle Manufacturing（Nigeria）

第7章 市場機會與未來展望

簡介目錄
Product Code: 67718

The Sub Saharan Africa automotive market size stands at USD 22.45 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 28.42 billion by 2030, expanding at a 4.83% CAGR during the forecast period.

Sub Saharan Africa Automotive - Market - IMG1

Accelerating urbanization, surging ride-hailing fleets, and government incentives for local assembly collectively sustain momentum despite persistent currency volatility and infrastructure gaps. Electrification initiatives in Ethiopia and South Africa signal a structurally diversifying demand mix, while diesel platforms remain dominant because of established fuel logistics and service networks. Grey-import activity continues to temper authorized-dealer volumes, yet structured fleet financing programs unlock new-vehicle penetration among ride-hailing operators. Strategic OEM partnerships with local assemblers, supported by AfCFTA tariff reductions, reinforce regional supply-chain integration.

Sub Saharan Africa Automotive Market Trends and Insights

Rising Middle-Class Income and Urbanization

An annual 4.1% urban-population uptick shifts purchasing power toward metropolitan nodes where dealer networks, financing options, and aftermarket services coalesce. Middle-income households in Nigeria, Kenya, and Ghana gravitate towards affordable models, intensifying competition between Chinese and Indian OEMs. Compact SUVs and hatchbacks hold favor for maneuverability in congested corridors, whereas peri-urban consumers rely on incoming used stock propelled by rising urban trade-in flows. Lenders follow employment clusters, resulting in cities above 1 million inhabitants offering up to five times more car-loan products than rural districts. Although local-currency depreciation erodes import affordability, wage growth linked to extractive sectors partially offsets price pressure, sustaining demand.

Surge of Ride-Hailing Platforms Accelerating Fleet Renewal

Structured fleet-financing programs from providers such as Moove enable ride-hailing drivers to bypass conventional credit hurdles, lifting multi-year baseline demand for the Sub Saharan Africa automotive market. Ride-hailing vehicles operate 8-12 hours daily, roughly quadrupling private-use utilization, which shortens replacement cycles to 3-4 years. This predictable cadence allows OEMs to align inventory planning with platform procurement schedules, protecting volumes when consumer sentiment dips. Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa collectively host over 450,000 active ride-hailing drivers in 2025, and platform expansion into secondary cities deepens addressable demand. Government agencies increasingly recognize such fleets as catalysts for formalizing transport services, offering duty rebates on low-emission vehicles deployed for ride-hailing in Ethiopia and Ghana. Resultant fleet growth moderates the risk of limited retail financing reach in many markets.

Dominance of Used-Car Imports

Used vehicles represented 83% of all light-duty vehicle registrations across Sub Saharan Africa in 2024, according to the African Association of Automotive Manufacturers . South African Revenue Service customs data show That 45-60% price gaps between used and new models tilt buyer preference, a disparity magnified whenever local-currency depreciation inflates showroom tags. Projected deregistrations of ICE cars in wealthier economies could add 15 million exportable units annually by 2030, prolonging the region's high-emission fleet unless stricter import-quality rules take hold. UNECE roadworthiness protocols aim to stem sub-standard flows, but uneven enforcement across border posts still dilutes effectiveness.

Other drivers and restraints analyzed in the detailed report include:

  1. Government CKD/SKD Assembly Incentives
  2. Infrastructure Upgrades Improving Road Connectivity
  3. Limited Consumer Credit Access and High Interest Rates

For complete list of drivers and restraints, kindly check the Table Of Contents.

Segment Analysis

Sport-Utility Vehicles accounted for 36.75% of the Sub Saharan Africa automotive market in 2024, underpinned by a versatile ride height suited to mixed-quality roads and a 5.04% CAGR outlook through 2030. Sedans maintain relevance in professional and fleet procurement, yet share erosion persists as consumers migrate to crossover silhouettes. Chinese entrants such as BYD and Chery intensify rivalry by launching locally assembled PHEV SUVs at discounts versus Japanese incumbents, widening adoption among aspirational buyers. Hatchbacks dominate entry-level tiers in Kenya and Ghana, where congested grids reward compact footprints. Multi-purpose vans fill commercial people-movement gaps in peri-urban districts absent formal mass-transit systems, reinforcing the body-style mosaic across the Sub Saharan Africa automotive market.

Infrastructure realities sustain the appeal of higher-clearance models: paved-road density outside capitals remains low, and periodic flooding events make underbody robustness a decisive buying filter. Security considerations likewise favor SUV adoption because elevated driver sightlines reduce vulnerability in traffic slowdowns. The Sub Saharan Africa automotive market size for SUV derivatives is projected to grow by 2030, supported by both private ownership and ride-hailing fleet uptake.

Passenger cars preserved a 74.33% share of Sub Saharan Africa automotive market volume in 2024 and are forecast to grow at a 5.65% CAGR as middle-income cohorts expand. Light commercial vehicles (LCVs) benefit from e-commerce acceleration, especially in Nigeria and Kenya, where last-mile delivery providers lease small vans optimized for dense urban routes. Medium and heavy trucks trail overall market growth, tethered to commodity-export cycles in South Africa, Zambia, and Angola. Ride-hailing fleets underpin steady passenger-car demand, absorbing sedan and hatchback stock through structured financing programs that lower upfront cost burdens.

Policy-driven electrification in Ethiopia reshapes the passenger-car mix: 60% of newly registered cars must be EVs, catalyzing dedicated assembly ventures and public-sector procurement. Conversely, commercial-vehicle electrification lags because of payload-range constraints, though pilot programs in Johannesburg test battery-electric vans under urban logistics duty cycles. Sustained momentum within the passenger-car segment remains contingent on currency stability and progressive credit-access reforms across the Sub Saharan Africa automotive market.

The Sub Saharan Africa Automotive Market Report is Segmented by Body Style (Hatchback, Sedan, and More), Vehicle Type (Passenger Cars, Light Commercial Vehicles, and More), Fuel Type (Gasoline, Diesel, and More), Propulsion Technology (Internal Combustion Engine (ICE), Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV), and More), Sales Channel, and Country. The Market Forecasts are Provided in Terms of Value (USD) and Volume (Units).

List of Companies Covered in this Report:

  1. Toyota Motor Corporation
  2. Volkswagen AG
  3. Hyundai Motor Company
  4. Nissan Motor Corporation
  5. Isuzu Motors Ltd.
  6. Ford Motor Company
  7. Groupe Renault
  8. Honda Motor Corporation
  9. Suzuki Motor Corporation
  10. Subaru Corporation
  11. Stellantis N.V.
  12. Daimler AG (Mercedes-Benz)
  13. BYD Co.
  14. Geely Auto Group
  15. Changan Auto
  16. JAC Motors
  17. BAIC Group
  18. Tata Motors
  19. Mahindra & Mahindra
  20. Innoson Vehicle Manufacturing (Nigeria)

Additional Benefits:

  • The market estimate (ME) sheet in Excel format
  • 3 months of analyst support

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 Introduction

  • 1.1 Study Assumptions & Market Definition
  • 1.2 Scope of the Study

2 Research Methodology

3 Executive Summary

4 Market Landscape

  • 4.1 Market Overview
  • 4.2 Market Drivers
    • 4.2.1 Rising Middle-Class Income and Urbanization
    • 4.2.2 Surge of Ride-Hailing Platforms Accelerating Fleet Renewal
    • 4.2.3 Government CKD/SKD Assembly Incentives
    • 4.2.4 Infrastructure Upgrades Improving Road Connectivity
    • 4.2.5 AfCFTA Tariff Reductions Expanding Intra-Regional Trade
    • 4.2.6 Growth of Chinese Micro-EV Imports Filling Ultra-Low-Cost Niche
  • 4.3 Market Restraints
    • 4.3.1 Dominance of Used-Car Imports
    • 4.3.2 Limited Consumer Credit Access and High Interest Rates
    • 4.3.3 Local-Currency Volatility Inflating Import Costs
    • 4.3.4 Fragmented Homologation Standards Across SSA
  • 4.4 Value / Supply-Chain Analysis
  • 4.5 Regulatory Landscape
  • 4.6 Technological Outlook
  • 4.7 Porter's Five Forces
    • 4.7.1 Threat of New Entrants
    • 4.7.2 Bargaining Power of Buyers/Consumers
    • 4.7.3 Bargaining Power of Suppliers
    • 4.7.4 Threat of Substitute Products
    • 4.7.5 Intensity of Competitive Rivalry

5 Market Size & Growth Forecasts (Value (USD) and Volume (Units))

  • 5.1 By Body Style
    • 5.1.1 Hatchback
    • 5.1.2 Sedan
    • 5.1.3 Sport-Utility Vehicle (SUV)
    • 5.1.4 Multi-Purpose/Minivan
  • 5.2 By Vehicle Type
    • 5.2.1 Passenger Cars
    • 5.2.2 Light Commercial Vehicles
    • 5.2.3 Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles
  • 5.3 By Fuel Type
    • 5.3.1 Gasoline
    • 5.3.2 Diesel
    • 5.3.3 Alternative Fuels (CNG, LPG, Bio-fuel)
  • 5.4 By Propulsion Technology
    • 5.4.1 Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)
    • 5.4.2 Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)
    • 5.4.3 Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)
    • 5.4.4 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)
  • 5.5 By Sales Channel
    • 5.5.1 OEM-Authorized Dealer
    • 5.5.2 Grey Import / Parallel
  • 5.6 By Country
    • 5.6.1 South Africa
    • 5.6.2 Nigeria
    • 5.6.3 Kenya
    • 5.6.4 Ethiopia
    • 5.6.5 Ghana
    • 5.6.6 Tanzania
    • 5.6.7 Angola
    • 5.6.8 Zambia

6 Competitive Landscape

  • 6.1 Market Concentration
  • 6.2 Strategic Moves
  • 6.3 Market Share Analysis
  • 6.4 Company Profiles (Includes Global Level Overview, Market Level Overview, Core Segments, Financials as Available, Strategic Information, Market Rank/Share for Key Companies, Products and Services, SWOT Analysis, and Recent Developments)
    • 6.4.1 Toyota Motor Corporation
    • 6.4.2 Volkswagen AG
    • 6.4.3 Hyundai Motor Company
    • 6.4.4 Nissan Motor Corporation
    • 6.4.5 Isuzu Motors Ltd.
    • 6.4.6 Ford Motor Company
    • 6.4.7 Groupe Renault
    • 6.4.8 Honda Motor Corporation
    • 6.4.9 Suzuki Motor Corporation
    • 6.4.10 Subaru Corporation
    • 6.4.11 Stellantis N.V.
    • 6.4.12 Daimler AG (Mercedes-Benz)
    • 6.4.13 BYD Co.
    • 6.4.14 Geely Auto Group
    • 6.4.15 Changan Auto
    • 6.4.16 JAC Motors
    • 6.4.17 BAIC Group
    • 6.4.18 Tata Motors
    • 6.4.19 Mahindra & Mahindra
    • 6.4.20 Innoson Vehicle Manufacturing (Nigeria)

7 Market Opportunities & Future Outlook

  • 7.1 White-space & Unmet-need Assessment