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市場調查報告書
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2053341

直接到小區（衛星直接通訊）：2026-2031年

Direct to Cell Market: 2026-2031
出版日期: | 出版商: Juniper Research Ltd | 英文 | 商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內

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簡介目錄

“直接到蜂窩（衛星直接通訊）：預計到 2031 年，每月有效用戶將超過 1.3 億。然而，預計普及率將低於最初的預測。”

概述

本系列研究報告為正在開發和推出直接接觸小區服務的行動網路營運商 (MNO) 提供詳細的分析和策略建議。隨著智慧型手機直接連接到非地面電波網路 (NTN) 變得越來越普遍，越來越多的行動網路營運商正在為其行動用戶推出直接存取小區服務。

本報告分析了消費者和企業對直接接入蜂窩網路（Direct-to-Cell）服務的需求，並詳細分析了行動用戶營運商（MNO）可用於實現直接接入蜂窩網路服務盈利的經營模式。此外，報告還評估了直接接觸蜂窩網路服務面臨的主要挑戰，探討了國際直接接入蜂窩網路等新興機遇，並利用瞻博網路研究（Juniper Research）的國家準備度指數，評估了直接接入蜂窩網路服務在60多個國家的部署情況和未來潛力。

該報告還提供了七家衛星服務供應商的概況，包括Starlink和AST SpaceMobile，這些供應商正在投資面向行動網路營運商（MNO）的直接接入蜂窩網路（Direct to Cell）市場。報告包含數據資料，例如涵蓋八大主要地區60多個國家的市場規模估算，以及關鍵預測數據，包括每月有效用戶總數和直接接入蜂窩網路的總收入。

本報告集是了解直接面向蜂窩網路服務的部署和貨幣化的重要工具，使行動網路營運商和其他相關利益者能夠有效地規劃將行動服務擴展到地面網路之外。

報告將全部以英文撰寫。

主要特點

  • 要點和策略建議：除了對直接到蜂窩市場未來發展的關鍵機會和研究成果進行詳細分析外，本報告還就行動網路營運商如何最大限度地提高其從直接到蜂窩服務中獲得的投資回報提出了建議。
  • 市場動態：本報告深入分析了行動網路營運商 (MNO) 可用於實現直接到手機 (Direct to Cell) 獲利的經營模式，分析了消費者需求趨勢和發展，並提出了行動網路營運商加速採用直接到手機 (Direct to Cell) 的建議。
  • 產業預測基準：本報告提供了未來 5 年的直接接入蜂窩市場預測，包括每月活躍連線數和直接接入蜂窩市場總收入。
  • Juniper Research 供應商概況：對 7 家提供或可能成為直接到蜂窩網路服務主要參與者的領先供應商進行分析和評估：
    • AST SpaceMobile
    • EchoStar
    • Iridium
    • Lynk Global
    • Skylo
    • Starlink
    • Viasat

市場數據和預測

研究套件包含完整的預測資料集，共包含 2000 多個資料點。研究套件中包含的指標如下：

  • 直接到手機的月活躍連線數
  • 直接到手機收入

Juniper Research 的互動式預測工具（Excel）包含以下功能：

  • 統計分析：使用者可以利用此功能搜尋資料期間所有地區和國家/地區的特定指標。圖表可以輕鬆修改並匯出到剪貼簿。
  • 國家資料工具：此工具可讓您查看預測期間內所有地區和國家的指標。使用者可以使用搜尋欄來篩選顯示的指標。
  • 國家/地區對比工具：使用者可以選擇特定國家/地區進行比較。該工具還支援導出圖表。
  • 假設分析：透過三個互動式場景，您可以將預測指標與您自己的假設進行比較。

目錄

第1章：要點與策略建議

  • 重點
  • 關鍵策略建議

第2章 市場狀況及未來展望

  • 市場展望與市場規模
    • T-Mobile 和 Starlink
    • AT&T、Verizon、AST SpaceMobile
    • 直接到細胞市場現況及未來展望
  • 直接到手機服務細分
    • 三個主要組成部分
      • SMS
      • 聲音的
      • 資訊服務
    • 直接漫遊到社區
      • KDDI-au Starlink Direct
  • 直接到細胞頻譜
    • 從MSS頻段到行動電話的地面電波頻段。
    • WRC-27 對直接面向細胞市場的影響
    • 干擾管理
    • 頻率獲取和競標趨勢
  • 直接連接到蜂窩和用戶設備
    • 3GPP Release 17 對 NTN 的支持所產生的影響
    • 設備功能和進階調變解調器
  • 對 6G 和 5G 市場的影響

第3章：經營模式與獲利模式

  • 經營模式
    • 捆綁類型
    • 可選附加類型
    • 臨時使用類型
    • 直接撥打手機（適用於企業）
  • ARPU 和直接面向 Spring 的定價策略

第4章 各國具體準備狀況指數

  • 引言：國家準備指數
  • 直接髮送至手機：國家準備指數概覽
  • 主要市場
    • 美國
    • 中國
    • 澳洲
  • 不斷成長的市場
      • 德國
  • 市場尚未飽和。
  • 新興市場

第5章：公司簡介

  • 引言：公司簡介
    • AST SpaceMobile
    • EchoStar
    • Iridium
    • Lynk Global
    • Skylo
    • Starlink
    • Viasat

第6章 市場數據與預測

  • 直接傳輸至細胞：市場預測概述
  • 直接到手機服務每月活躍用戶總數
  • 來自直接到蜂窩網路連接的總收入
簡介目錄

'Direct to Cell: Monthly Active Users to Reach Over 130 Million by 2031, But Usage Forecast to Be Lower Than Anticipated'

Overview

Juniper Research’s Direct to Cell research suite for mobile network operators (MNOs) provides detailed analysis and strategic recommendations for MNOs developing and launching direct to cell services. Unmodified smartphone access to non-terrestrial networks (NTNs) is becoming increasingly commonplace, with a greater number of MNOs launching direct to cell to their mobile subscribers.

The report includes analysis of the demand for direct to cell services from consumers and enterprises, as well as detailed analysis of the business models MNOs can utilise to monetise direct to cell services with mobile subscribers. In addition, it assesses the key challenges with direct to cell services, appraises emerging opportunities such as international direct to cell, and evaluates the deployment and future of direct to cell in more than 60 different countries via Juniper Research’s Country Readiness Index.

MNOs are also provided with profiles on seven satellite providers investing in the direct to cell market, including Starlink and AST SpaceMobile. The suite includes a data deliverable; sizing the market and providing key forecast data across 60+ countries in eight key regions, including the total number of monthly active users and total direct to cell revenue.

Collectively, the suite provides a critical tool for understanding the development and monetisation of direct to cell services; allowing MNOs and other stakeholders to effectively plan for expanding mobile services beyond terrestrial network.

All report content is delivered in the English language.

Key Features

  • Key Takeaways & Strategic Recommendations: In-depth analysis of key development opportunities and findings for the future of the direct to cell market, along with recommendations for how MNOs can maximise their return on investment from direct to cell services.
  • Market Dynamics: Insights into the business models available to MNOs for direct to cell monetisation, analysis of the dynamics and trends in consumer demand, and recommendations for how MNOs can accelerate direct to cell adoption.
  • Benchmark Industry Forecasts: The suite provides five-year forecasts for the direct to cell market, including the total number of monthly active direct to cell connections and total direct to cell revenue.
  • Juniper Research Vendor Profiles: Key player analysis and assessment for seven vendors providing direct to cell services or positioned to become key players in the future:
    • AST SpaceMobile
    • EchoStar
    • Iridium
    • Lynk Global
    • Skylo
    • Starlink
    • Viasat

Market Data & Forecasts

The market-leading research suite for the direct to cell market includes access to the full set of forecast data of over 2,000 datapoints. Metrics in the research suite include:

  • Total Number of Monthly Active Direct to Cell Connections
  • Total Direct to Cell Revenue

Juniper Research’s Interactive Forecast Excel contains the following functionality:

  • Statistics Analysis: Users benefit from the ability to search for specific metrics; displayed for all regions and countries across the data period. Graphs are easily modified and can be exported to the clipboard.
  • Country Data Tool: This tool enables users to look at metrics for all regions and countries in the forecast period. Users can refine the metrics displayed via a search bar.
  • Country Comparison Tool: Users can select and compare specific countries. The ability to export graphs is included in this tool.
  • What-if Analysis: Here, users can compare forecast metrics against their own assumptions, via three interactive scenarios.

Table of Contents

1. Key Takeaways & Strategic Recommendations

  • 1.1 Key Takeaways
  • 1.2 Key Strategic Recommendations

2. Market Landscape & Future Outlook

  • 2.1 Introduction
  • 2.2 Market Outlook & Sizing
    • 2.2.1 T-Mobile & Starlink
    • 2.2.2 AT&T, Verizon, & AST SpaceMobile
    • 2.2.3 Current & Future Prospects of the Direct to Cell Market
  • 2.3 Direct to Cell Service Breakdown
    • 2.3.1 Three Core Components
      • i. SMS
      • ii. Voice
      • iii. Data Services
    • 2.3.2 Direct to Cell Roaming
      • i. KDDI - au Starlink Direct
  • 2.4 Spectrum for Direct to Cell
    • 2.4.1 MSS Spectrum to Terrestrial Mobile Spectrum
    • 2.4.2 WRC-27 Implications for Direct to Cell
    • 2.4.3 Interference Management
    • 2.4.4 Spectrum Acquisitions & Auction Activity
    • Table 2.1: FCC Auction 113 - Applicants and Initial Filing Phase Status
  • 2.5 Direct to Cell & User Equipment
    • 2.5.1 The Impact of 3GPP Release 17 NTN Support
    • 2.5.2 Device Functionality & Advanced Modems
  • 2.6 6G & 5G Market Impact

3. Business Models & Monetisation

  • 3.1 Introduction
  • 3.2 Direct to Cell Business Models
    • 3.2.1 Bundling
      • i. Overview of Main Advantages of Bundling
      • ii. Overview of Main Disadvantages of Bundling
    • 3.2.2 Bolt-Ons/Add-Ons
      • i. Overview of Main Advantages of Add-on Models
      • ii. Overview of Main Disadvantages of Add-on Models
    • 3.2.3 Temporary Access Models
      • i. Overview of Main Advantages of Temporary Access Models
      • ii. Overview of Main Disadvantages of Temporary Access Models
    • 3.2.4 Enterprise Direct to Cell
      • i. Overview of Main Advantages of Enterprise Direct to Cell
      • ii. Overview of Main Disadvantages of Enterprise Direct to Cell
  • 3.3 ARPU & Direct to Cell Pricing
      • i. High-ARPU Markets
      • ii. Low-ARPU Markets
      • iii. Market-level Implications for Pricing Strategy

4. Country Readiness Index

  • 4.1 Introduction to Country Readiness Index
    • Figure 4.1: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index: Regional Definitions
    • Table 4.2: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index Scoring Criteria: Direct to Cell Market
    • Figure 4.3: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index: Direct to Cell
    • Table 4.4: Direct to Cell Market Country Readiness Index: Market Segments
  • 4.2 Direct to Cell Country Readiness Index Overview
  • 4.3 Focus Markets
    • 4.3.1 The United States
    • 4.3.2 China
    • 4.3.3 Australia
  • 4.4 Growth Markets
      • i. Germany
  • 4.5 The Absence of Saturated Markets
  • 4.6 Developing Markets
    • Table 4.5: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index Heatmap: North America
    • Table 4.6: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index Heatmap: Latin America
    • Table 4.7: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index Heatmap: West Europe
    • Table 4.8: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index Heatmap: Central & East
    • Table 4.9: Juniper Research’s Country Readiness Index Heatmap: Far East &
    • Table 4.10: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index Heatmap: Indian
    • Table 4.11: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index Heatmap: Rest of Asia
    • Table 4.12: Juniper Research Country Readiness Index Heatmap: Africa & Middle East

5. Company Profiles

  • 5.1 Introduction to Company Profiles
    • 5.1.1 AST SpaceMobile
      • i. Corporate Information
      • ii. Geographical Spread
      • iii. Key Customers & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High-level View of Offerings
      • v. Juniper Research’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development
    • 5.1.2 EchoStar
      • i. Corporate Information
      • ii. Geographical Spread
      • iii. Key Customers & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High-level View of Offerings
      • v. Juniper Research’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development
    • 5.1.3 Iridium
      • i. Corporate Information
      • ii. Geographical Spread
      • iii. Key Customers & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High-level View of Offerings
      • v. Juniper Research’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development
    • 5.1.4 Lynk Global
      • i. Corporate Information
      • ii. Geographical Spread
      • iii. Key Customers & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High-level View of Offerings
      • v. Juniper Research’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development
    • 5.1.5 Skylo
      • i. Corporate Information
      • ii. Geographical Spread
      • iii. Key Customers & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High-level View of Offerings
      • v. Juniper Research’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development
    • 5.1.6 Starlink
      • i. Corporate Information
      • ii. Geographical Spread
      • iii. Key Customers & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High-level View of Offerings
      • v. Juniper Research’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development
    • 5.1.7 Viasat
      • i. Corporate Information
      • ii. Geographical Spread
      • iii. Key Customers & Strategic Partnerships
      • iv. High-level View of Offerings
      • v. Juniper Research’s View: Key Strengths & Strategic Development

6. Market Data & Forecasts

  • 6.1 Introduction to Direct to Cell Market Forecasts
    • 6.1.1 Data & Forecast Methodology
  • 6.2 Total Monthly Active Direct to Cell Subscribers
    • Figure & Table 6.1: Total Monthly Active Direct to Cell Connections (m), Split by
  • 6.3 Total Revenue From Direct to Cell Connections
    • Figure & Table 6.2: Total Revenue From Direct to Cell Connections ($m), Split by