永續航空燃油市場－航空業的前進之路

Sustainable aviation fuel is the way forward for aviation industry

出版日期: 2023年12月23日 | 出版商:

GlobalData | 英文 26 Pages | 訂單完成後即時交付

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簡介目錄圖表

永續航空燃料 (SAF) 整體產量預計在 10 年內將超過 6,000 mmgy，2018 年至 2030 年複合年增長率為 49.8%。

為了滿足產業脫碳的需要，越來越多的國家宣布 SAF 指令。英國和日本宣布了最雄心勃勃的目標，目標是到 2030 年 SAF 比例達到 10%。然而，美國將成為SAF供需的主要市場。

燃料生產方面的產業公司，如 Neste、Gevo 和 World Energy，預計到 2030 年將引領 SAF 生產。同時，許多航空公司已製定到 2050 年實現淨零排放的目標，並計劃在 2030 年將 SAF 的使用率提高至 10%。

航空業是人均排放量成長的最大貢獻者，預計到 2050 年乘客數量將翻一番，達到 80 億人次。國際航空運輸協會（IATA）也宣布了到 2050 年實現淨零排放的目標。 IATA 擁有超過 300 家會員航空公司，預計佔航空運輸量的 83%。 IATA 估計，65% 的減排量將透過採用永續航空燃料 (SAF) 來實現。

隨著 SAF 產量的擴大，對原料的需求可能會超過供應，尤其是廢油，其產量較低，可能面臨來自再生柴油生產商的競爭。

到2050年，將回收的二氧化碳轉化為液體燃料的技術將達到成熟，二氧化碳可望成為最大的原料。

本報告審視了全球永續航空燃油市場，並解釋了民航部門脫碳的挑戰以及 SAF 在實現減排方面的潛在作用。它還分析了行業挑戰、關鍵技術轉變和主要進入者。

航空業對氣候變遷的貢獻
新加坡武裝部隊簡報
SAF 市場挑戰
ASTM 核准的 SAF 製造路線
SAF 生產經歷技術改造
從長遠來看，電轉液技術將有助於擴大 SAF
政策展望
SAF 混合義務摘要
其他措施與政策制定
需求與供給預測
基於正在進行和即將開展的項目的 SAF 生產前景
2030 年產能最大的 SAF 項目
按地區劃分的 SAF 供應預測
主要需求市場
進入 SAF 產業的公司
SAF 當前和未來的市場領導者
SAF 在航空業的實施目標
訊號
公司文件中提及 SAF 的次數不斷增加
SAF 在石油和天然氣領域的貿易活動概述
聯絡我們

簡介目錄圖表

Abstract

This report provides an overview of the global commercial aviation sector's decarbonization challenge and the potential role SAFs will play in achieving emission reduction. The report analyses sector challenges, important technological shifts, and key players.

To spur emission reductions from the sector, organizations such as the ICAO and the ITAO have set a target of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) have been identified as a key technology for achieving emission reductions.

There are currently 9 pathways for producing SAFs that are certified by the IATA. However, hydrotreatment remains the dominant pathway for the bulk of current SAF production. As SAF production scales, alternative pathways will become more prominent, particularly alcohol-to-jet (ATJ) and power to liquid (PtL) technologies.

Overall SAF production is expected to exceed 6,000mmgy by the end of the decade, increasing at a CAGR of 49.8% between 2018 and 2030.

In response to the industry's need to decarbonize, an increasing number of countries have announced SAF mandates. The most ambitious targets have been announced by the UK and Japan which are both aiming for a SAF blend of 10% by 2030. However, the US will be the key market both in terms of SAF supply and demand.

Industry players on the fuel production side such as Neste, Gevo, and World Energy will lead in terms of SAF production by 2030. Meanwhile, numerous airlines have adopted the net-zero by 2050 target and are aiming to increase their SAF usage to 10% by 2030.

Key Highlights

Aviation represents the largest contributor to growth in per capita emissions and with passenger numbers expected to double, reaching 8 billion by 2050, the sector now needs to urgently address its environmental impact.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has also announced its aim of reaching net-zero by 2050. The IATA represents over 300 members and constitutes an estimated 83% of air traffic. It has said that it expects 65% of emission reduction to be met through the adoption of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs).
Demand for feedstocks may outpace supply as SAF production scales, particularly for waste oils where volumes are low and competition with renewable diesel producers could take place.
In 2050, CO2 will be the largest feedstock as power to liquid technologies that use captured carbon dioxide reach maturity.
According to GlobalData's current database of active and upcoming projects, synthetic fuel production could reach up to 7,200 ktpa by 2030 as the number of projects reaches 68.
The SAF Certificate Registry was launched at COP28, allowing companies to buy credible SAF certificates that represent conventional fuel being displaced.
Despite neither the US or Canada having a blending mandate, North America will become the dominant market for SAF supply by 2030, where it will account for 10.8 Mt of annual SAF production. This equates to 39% of global supply.
The key oil and gas players within the SAF market will experience a shake up. While China Petrochemical Corp currently stands joint first in terms of current capacity due to its Zhenai Renewable refinery, it will lose this market positioning in 2030 to new market entrants such as Oriental Energy.

Scope

Carbon footprint of aviation sector
Emission reduction potential of SAFs
ASTM approved SAF production pathways
Emerging SAF production pathways
SAF production outlook and key supply and demand markets
SAF production capacity by country
Oil and gas sector activity within SAFs

Reasons to Buy

Understand the key trends and challenges within the SAFs market
Identify the key countries and players for SAF production capacity.
Develop market insight of current, in development and announced capacity and latest trends of the sector.
Understand how the oil and gas sector is engaging with this technology through upcoming capacity as well as alternative datasets such as deals, hiring and company filings trends.