船舶·航空部門永續燃料- 需求與供給預測

永續航空燃料 (SAF) 和船用燃料 (SMF) 市場由先進燃料技術、不斷發展的監管框架以及航空和海事領域不斷變化的需求動態共同構成。雖然 SAF 和 SMF 尚處於商業部署的早期階段，但它們日益被視為長途運輸脫碳的關鍵推動因素。在運量成長、基礎設施投資和生命週期排放標準的推動下，這些燃料預計將在難以脫碳的運輸產業的能源轉型中發揮核心作用。

本報告概述了 SAF 和 SMF 市場的市場推動因素和障礙，為利益相關者提供建議，並按地區和路徑對 2025 年至 2035 年全球可持續燃料的供需進行了預測。報告分析了推動 SAF 和 SMF 發展的關鍵技術路徑。 SAF 專注於四種具有高度商業和戰略意義的轉化技術：氫化酯和脂肪酸、醇製航油、電力製液體燃料以及費托合成石蠟煤油。 SMF 的分析涵蓋再生甲醇、再生甲烷、綠氨和生質燃料（包括 FAME 和 HVO）。

目錄

第1章 摘要整理

• 簡介
  • 範圍
  • 市場促進因素
  • 市場阻礙因素
• 全球市場預測

第2章 市場問題

• 技術概要
  • SAF 途徑
  • SAF 原料評估
  • SMF 途徑
• 促進因素
  • SAF的促進因素
  • SMF的促進因素
• 阻礙因素
  • SAF的阻礙因素
  • SMF的阻礙因素

第3章 產業價值鏈

• 競爭情形
  • SAF
  • SMF

第4章 市場預測

• SAF
• SMF

第5章 結論·建議

• 3大要點
• 推薦事項
  • 政策制定者和監管機構
  • 燃料生產商和技術開發商
  • 最終用戶

第6章 縮寫與簡稱一覽

第7章 目錄

第8章 圖表

第9章 調查範圍，資訊來源，調查手法及註解

The sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and sustainable marine fuels (SMF) markets are defined by the convergence of advanced fuel technologies, evolving regulatory frameworks, and shifting demand dynamics across aviation and shipping sectors. Although SAF and SMF are in the early stages of commercial deployment, both are increasingly recognized as critical enablers of long-distance transport decarbonization. Supported by growing offtake commitments, infrastructure investments, and lifecycle emissions standards, these fuels are positioned to play a central role in the energy transition for hard-to-abate transport sectors.

This Guidehouse Research report provides an overview of the drivers and barriers for the SAF and SMF market, offers recommendations for stakeholders, and projects global supply and demand for the sustainable fuels market by region and pathways from 2025 through 2035. It analyzes key technology pathways driving the development of SAF and SMF. SAF focuses on four commercially and strategically relevant conversion technologies: hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids, alcohol-to-jet, power-to-liquid, and Fischer-Tropsch synthetic paraffinic kerosene. The SMF analysis covers renewable methanol, renewable methane, green ammonia, and biofuels (including FAME and HVO).

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

• 1.1 Introduction
  • 1.1.1 Scope
  • 1.1.2 Market Drivers
  • 1.1.3 Market Barriers
• 1.2 Global Market Outlook

2. Market Issues

• 2.1 Technology Overview
  • 2.1.1 SAF Pathways
    • 2.1.1.1 HEFA
    • 2.1.1.2 AtJ
    • 2.1.1.3 FT-SPK
    • 2.1.1.4 PtL
    • 2.1.1.5 Other Technologies
  • 2.1.2 SAF Feedstock Assessment
  • 2.1.3 SMF Pathways
    • 2.1.3.1 Renewable Methanol
    • 2.1.3.2 Renewable Methane
    • 2.1.3.3 HVO
    • 2.1.3.4 FAME
    • 2.1.3.5 Green Ammonia
    • 2.1.3.6 Other Technologies
• 2.2 Drivers
  • 2.2.1 SAF Drivers
    • 2.2.1.1 Airline and Corporate Demand for SAF as a Decarbonization Lever
    • 2.2.1.2 Supply Chain Innovation and Feedstock Diversification
    • 2.2.1.3 Policy Incentives and Global Initiatives
    • 2.2.1.3.1 North America
    • 2.2.1.3.2 Europe
    • 2.2.1.3.3 Asia-Pacific
    • 2.2.1.3.4 Latin America
    • 2.2.1.3.5 Middle East & Africa
  • 2.2.2 SMF Drivers
    • 2.2.2.1 ESG Integration and Climate-Aligned Finance
    • 2.2.2.2 Life Cycle Emissions Reduction and Infrastructure Compatibility
    • 2.2.2.3 Supply Chain Decarbonization and Shipper Demand
    • 2.2.2.4 Port-Led Ecosystem Development
    • 2.2.2.5 Technology Maturity and Operational Flexibility
    • 2.2.2.6 Policy Incentives and Global Initiatives
    • 2.2.2.6.1 North America
    • 2.2.2.6.2 Europe
    • 2.2.2.6.3 Asia-Pacific
    • 2.2.2.6.4 Latin America
    • 2.2.2.6.5 Middle East & Africa
• 2.3 Barriers
  • 2.3.1 SAF Barriers
    • 2.3.1.1 Economic Viability and Feedstock Constraints
    • 2.3.1.2 Demand Uncertainty and Financing Barriers
    • 2.3.1.3 Infrastructure and Logistics Limitations
    • 2.3.1.4 Technology Maturity and Scale-Up Risk
    • 2.3.1.5 Market Fragmentation and Lack of Standards
  • 2.3.2 SMF Barriers
    • 2.3.2.1 Cost Premiums and Infrastructure Deficits
    • 2.3.2.2 Regulatory Fragmentation and Uncertainty
    • 2.3.2.3 Limited Fuel Supply and Cross-Sector Competition
    • 2.3.2.4 Technology Maturity and Safety Risks
    • 2.3.2.5 Investment Risk and Fleet Transition Hesitancy
    • 2.3.2.6 Capacity and Equity Challenges in Developing Regions

3. Industry Value Chain

• 3.1 Competitive Landscape
  • 3.1.1 SAF
    • 3.1.1.1 Offtake Agreements for SAF
  • 3.1.2 SMF

4. Market Forecasts

• 4.1 SAF
  • 4.1.1 Scope
  • 4.1.2 Methodology
  • 4.1.3 Supply Capacity
    • 4.1.3.1 Baseline Scenario
    • 4.1.3.2 Conservative Scenario
    • 4.1.3.3 Aggressive Scenario
  • 4.1.4 Demand
• 4.2 SMF
  • 4.2.1 Scope
  • 4.2.2 Methodology
  • 4.2.3 Supply Capacity
    • 4.2.3.1 Baseline Scenario
    • 4.2.3.2 Conservative Scenario
    • 4.2.3.3 Aggressive Scenario
  • 4.2.4 Demand

5. Conclusions and Recommendations

• 5.1 Three Big Takeaways
• 5.2 Recommendations
  • 5.2.1 Policymakers and Regulators
  • 5.2.2 Fuel Producers and Technology Developers
  • 5.2.3 End Users

6. Acronym and Abbreviation List

7. Table of Contents

8. Table of Charts and Figures

9. Scope of Study, Sources, Methodology & Notes

List of Tables

• Table 2-1. Comparative Overview of SAF Production Pathways
• Table 2-2. Feedstock Risk Profiling and Regulatory Review for SAF Production
• Table 2-3. Comparative Overview of SMF Production Pathways

List of Figures

• Chart 1-1. SAF and SMF Supply Capacity and Demand by Category (Baseline Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
• Chart 4-1. SAF Supply Capacity by Region (Baseline Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
• Chart 4-2. SAF Supply Capacity by Pathway (Baseline Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
• Chart 4-3. SAF Supply Capacity by Region (Conservative Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
• Chart 4-4. SAF Supply Capacity by Pathway (Conservative Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
• Chart 4-5. SAF Supply Capacity by Region (Aggressive Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
• Chart 4-6. SAF Supply Capacity by Pathway (Aggressive Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
• Chart 4-7. SAF Demand by Scenario, World Markets: 2025-2035
• Chart 4-8. SMF Supply Capacity by Region (Baseline Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
• Chart 4-9. SMF Supply Capacity by Pathway (Baseline Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
• Chart 4-10. SMF Supply Capacity by Region (Conservative Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
• Chart 4-11. SMF Supply Capacity by Pathway (Conservative Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
• Chart 4-12. SMF Supply Capacity by Region (Aggressive Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
• Chart 4-13. SMF Supply Capacity by Pathway (Aggressive Scenario), World Markets: 2025-2035
• Chart 4-14. SMF Demand by Scenario, World Markets: 2025-2035
• Figure 3-1. SAF and SMF Value Chain