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1892082

全球巴士和長途客車市場成長預測，2025年

Global Transit and Coach Bus Growth Outlook, 2025

出版日期: 2025年10月15日 | 出版商:

Frost & Sullivan | 英文 88 Pages | 商品交期: 最快1-2個工作天內

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簡介目錄

歐洲、中國和印度電池電動巴士（BEB）的擴張帶來了變革性的成長機會和新的經營模式。

預計到2025年，全球城市公車和長途客車銷售將達到26.67萬輛，其中中國和印度這兩個快速成長的市場將帶來顯著成長。城市公車的需求主要得益於政府對車輛現代化和替代動力傳動系統的補貼，而長途客車市場則受益於旅遊業的強勁成長。

受排放氣體法規、電池價格下降、低排放區出現、購置補貼、稅收減免等因素的影響，電動巴士（eBus）市場預計將迅速擴張。電動巴士在公共交通領域的日益普及，為全球採購和供應替代動力傳動系統的巴士創造了機會，促進了現有汽車製造商、供應商和新參與企業之間的合作。

包括歐盟清潔車輛指令在內的一系列針對性法規預計將推動電動公車的普及，尤其是在各國公共交通採購中。歐洲議會於2024年4月核准、歐盟理事會於同年5月批准的修訂版二氧化碳排放法規也將促進電動公車市場的成長。在2024年至2027年期間，隨著大型公共產業和能源公司進軍充電基礎設施領域，對純電動公車的需求將呈現強勁成長。

隨著2025年《新能源城市公車及動力電池更換補貼實施細則》的訂定，預計中國純電動公車市場將迎來顯著成長。這些細則將允許地方政府根據實際需求和數量比例更換新能源城市公車隊，促進新能源公車的發展。政府所推行的農村客運、貨運和郵政一體化政策將可緩解公共運輸能力過剩的局面，並建立一種強調便利高效的新型農村交通服務模式。2024年中國長途客車市場將維持穩健成長。此外，中國電動客車製造商正透過建立製造和組裝工廠以及擴大出口，迅速拓展全球市場。

2024年印度公車市場成長的主要促進因素包括：城際和市內公共交通需求的復甦、各邦交通營業單位大規模採購公車以替換老舊車輛，以及私營運輸業者為滿足日益成長的通勤、教育和休閒出行需求而進行的車輛現代化改造。2024年推出的PM-eBus Sewa支付安全機制目的是降低支付延遲的風險，並改善與公共交通管理部門簽訂特許經營合約的原始設備製造商（OEM）和營運商的融資管道。

巴西聯邦政府的「成長加速計畫（Novo PAC）」為人口超過15萬的中大型城市的公共交通車隊更新以及公共交通和綠色出行基礎設施計劃撥出大量資金。在電氣化計劃、能源效率法規和城市永續目標的推動下，電動驅動系統在該地區日益普及。2025年，智利聖地牙哥計畫引進1,800輛電動公車，以改善都市區空氣品質、減少噪音污染，並符合智利的長期環境目標。拉丁美洲主要國家製定電氣化策略，以促進在其公共交通系統中採用零排放公車。零排放車輛（ZEV）公車競標強調基於績效的契約，目標客戶是那些能夠滿足預防性維護和完善的售後支援（包括備件供應）要求的製造商。

本研究也探討了北美、歐洲、拉丁美洲、中國和印度等全球各市場的以下領域：

重要法規和指令
各地區主要產業趨勢及影響
依地區分類的動力傳動系統技術佔有率（包括電動車和天然氣汽車）
OEM動力傳動系統技術產品系列
發展機會

十大成長機會
2025年十大趨勢
全球GDP成長概覽
趨勢1：世界GDP成長率
成長機會1：全球GDP成長
趨勢2：通貨膨脹和利率
成長機會之2：通貨膨脹與利率
趨勢3：石油市場
成長機會3：石油市場
趨勢4：勞動市場
成長機會 4：勞動市場
趨勢5：美國與黃金
成長機會5：美國和黃金
趨勢6：北美
成長機會 6：北美
趨勢7：拉丁美洲
成長機會之7：拉丁美洲
趨勢8：西歐
成長機會 8：西歐

成長要素：本地和長途巴士市場展望

市場預測
依地區和細分市場分類的市場預測
2025年公車動力傳動系統技術預測

成長要素：北美

市場展望：北美
北美季巴士銷售
動力傳動系統技術分享
北美巴士OEM銷售業績
OEM動力傳動系統技術平台：北美

成長要素：歐洲

市場展望：歐洲
歐洲季巴士銷售業績：
動力傳動系統技術分享
歐洲巴士OEM銷售業績
OEM動力傳動系統技術平台

成長要素：中國

市場展望：中國
中國季巴士銷售業績：
動力傳動系統技術分享
客車OEM銷售記錄：中國
OEM動力傳動系統技術平台

成長要素：印度

市場展望：印度
印度季巴士銷售資料：
動力傳動系統技術分享
巴士OEM銷售記錄：印度
OEM動力傳動系統技術平台

成長要素：拉丁美洲

市場展望：拉丁美洲
季巴士銷售業績：拉丁美洲
動力傳動系統技術分享
客車OEM銷售業績：拉丁美洲
OEM動力傳動系統技術平台

成長機會領域

成長機會1：政府強制鼓勵採用電動動力傳動系統
成長機會2：公車安全措施、駕駛輔助與自動駕駛技術的出現
成長機會3：擴大價值鏈參與者的商機

附錄與後續步驟

成長機會帶來的益處和影響
後續步驟
附件清單
免責聲明

簡介目錄

Product Code: PFTP-42

Battery Electric Transit Bus Expansion Across Europe, China, and India Presents Transformative Growth Opportunities and New Business Models

Global transit and coach bus sales are forecast to reach 266,700 units in 2025, with substantial growth attributed to the fast-growing markets in China and India. Increased demand for transit buses is fueled by fleet modernization and government subsidies for alternative powertrains, while the robust tourism growth drives the coach bus segment.

The electric bus (eBus) market is poised for rapid expansion due to factors such as emission regulations, declining battery prices, the emergence of low-emission zones, purchase subsidies, and tax exemptions. The growing adoption of transit eBuses opens up opportunities for the global sourcing and supply of alternative powertrain buses, fostering collaboration among incumbent automakers, suppliers, and new market entrants.

Targeted regulations, including the EU Clean Vehicle directive, are expected to boost eBus adoption, particularly in national public transport procurement. The revised CO2 emissions, approved by the European Parliament in April 2024 and ratified by the Council of the European Union in May 2024, will also encourage growth. BEV buses are expected to experience strong growth from 2024 to 2027, supported by the entry of major utility and energy companies into the electric charging infrastructure space.

In China, BEV buses are forecast to see considerable growth with the introduction of the 2025 New Energy City Bus and Power Battery Renewal Subsidy Implementation Rules. These rules, which empower local governments to update their fleets of new energy city buses based on actual demand and quantity ratios, will drive the growth of new energy buses. The government's policy to integrate rural passenger, freight, and postal services will alleviate public transportation's overcapacity and establish a new rural transportation service model that emphasizes convenience and efficiency. Chinese coach buses registered strong growth in 2024. Additionally, Chinese eBus OEMs are rapidly expanding globally, driven by the establishment of manufacturing and assembly plants, as well as growing exports.

In India, the bus market's growth in 2024 was mainly driven by the revival of public transport demand across intercity and intracity routes, large-scale procurement of buses by state transport undertakings to replace aging fleets, and fleet modernization initiatives by private transport operators due to the increased movement of people for work, education, and leisure. The 2024 rollout of the PM-eBus Sewa-Payment Security Mechanism scheme aimed to mitigate the risk of payment delays and enhance the bankability of OEMs and operators engaged in concession agreements with public transport authorities.

Brazil's federal government's Programa de Aceleracao do Crescimento (Novo PAC) has allocated substantial funding for the renewal of public transport fleets and infrastructure projects in public transport and active mobility in large and medium-sized cities with more than 150,000 inhabitants. Electric powertrains are increasingly popular in the region, driven by electromobility and energy efficiency regulations, as well as cities' sustainable development goals. In 2025, Santiago de Chile plans to deploy 1800 electric buses, improving urban air quality, reducing noise pollution, and aligning with Chile's long-term environmental goals. Major Latin American countries are developing electromobility strategies to promote zero-emission buses in their public transportation systems. ZEV bus tenders focus on performance-based contracts where manufacturers meet requirements for strong post-sales support, including preventive maintenance and guaranteed spare parts.

The study also explores the following areas across various global markets, including North America, Europe, Latin America, China, and India:

Notable regulations and mandates
Top industry trends and impact by region
Powertrain technology share by region, including electric and natural gas vehicles
Powertrain technology product portfolios of OEMs
Growth opportunities

Transformation in the Global Transit and Coach Bus Industry

Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8
The Impact of the Top Three Strategic Imperatives on the Global Transit and Coach Bus Industry
Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline EngineTM

Growth Environment

Top Passenger Mobility Trends
Key Findings: A Recap of 2024
Key Findings: Top 5 Predictions for 2025
Transit Bus and Coach Market
Notable Regulations and Mandates: A Snapshot

Ecosystem

Research Scope
Segmentation

2025 Global Economic Outlook

Top 10 Growth Opportunities
Top 10 Trends for 2025
Global GDP Growth Snapshot
Trend 1: Global GDP Growth
Growth Opportunity 1: Global GDP Growth
Trend 2: Inflation and Interest Rates
Growth Opportunity 2: Inflation and Interest Rates
Trend 3: Oil Markets
Growth Opportunity 3: Oil Markets
Trend 4: Labor Market
Growth Opportunity 4: Labor Market
Trend 5: US Dollar and Gold
Growth Opportunity 5: US Dollar and Gold
Trend 6: North America
Growth Opportunity 6: North America
Trend 7: Latin America
Growth Opportunity 7: Latin America
Trend 8: Western Europe
Growth Opportunity 8: Western Europe

Growth Generator: Transit and Coach Bus Market Outlook

Market Forecast
Market Forecast by Region and Segment
2025 Bus Powertrain Technology Forecast

Growth Generator: North America

Market Outlook: North America
Quarterly Bus Sales: North America
Powertrain Technology Share
Bus OEM Sales Performance: North America
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms: North America

Growth Generator: Europe

Market Outlook: Europe
Quarterly Bus Sales: Europe
Powertrain Technology Share
Bus OEM Sales Performance: Europe
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Growth Generator: China

Market Outlook: China
Quarterly Bus Sales: China
Powertrain Technology Share
Bus OEM Sales Performance: China
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Growth Generator: India

Market Outlook: India
Quarterly Bus Sales: India
Powertrain Technology Share
Bus OEM Sales Performance: India
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Growth Generator: Latin America

Market Outlook: Latin America
Quarterly Bus Sales: Latin America
Powertrain Technology Share
Bus OEM Sales Performance: Latin America
OEM Powertrain Technology Platforms

Growth Opportunity Universe

Growth Opportunity 1: Government Mandates to Expedite Electric Powertrain Adoption
Growth Opportunity 2: Advent of Bus Safety, Driver Assistance, and Automated Driving
Growth Opportunity 3: Expansion of Revenue Opportunities for Value Chain Participant Growth