印度商用車的成長機會

替代動力傳動系統和新商業模式帶來變革

印度的卡車運輸業涵蓋多種車輛、營運商和物流服務，是經濟成長和發展的關鍵驅動力。經過多年實施軸載法規和巴拉特第 6 階段排放法規後，該行業面臨銷量下滑，而 COVID-19大流行進一步加劇了這種下滑。不過，該產業目前正處於復甦和成長階段。 2022 年卡車總出貨為 87 萬輛。市佔率最大的仍是輕型卡車細分市場，2022 年銷量為 56 萬輛，其次是重型卡車細分市場，銷量為 22 萬輛，中型卡車細分市場銷量為 9 萬輛。巴拉特馬拉（Bharatmala）重點關注道路基礎設施、薩加馬拉（Sagarmala）重點關注港口現代化、綜合性國家物流政策和國家基礎設施管道等關鍵舉措，開發支出高，預計將推升卡車部署需求。

儘管柴油價格急劇上升，但中型卡車領域的壓縮天然氣 (CNG) 卡車銷量仍在成長，佔動力傳動系統總量的 27.8%。 CNG價格調整將促進銷售。專用液化天然氣 (LNG) 的政策可能會增加卡車中液化天然氣的使用，特別是在重型卡車領域，因為液化天然氣提供與柴油類似的更長續航里程和性能。主要原始OEM正在展示 LNG 模型作為原型，預計將於 2024 年推出。卡車電動將從輕型卡車開始，針對最後一英里的營運，並隨著充電基礎設施和購買成本的改善而擴展到其他領域。在中央和州政府的補貼下，商用車的電動將會進一步加強。此外，OEM還可享有生產連結獎勵計畫(PLI)。第三方參與者和OEM增加連接和遠端資訊處理解決方案正在改善客戶的車隊管理，但預計將有進一步的監管。印度商用車產業的整體成長軌跡可能會保持強勁。

目錄

戰略問題

• 為什麼成長如此困難？
• The Strategic Imperative 8（TM）
• 三大戰略問題對印度商用車產業的影響
• 成長機會是Growth Pipeline Engine（TM）

調查範圍

• 分析範圍
• 產品/動力傳動系統總成細分
• 調查的目的和目的
• 本次調查回答的關鍵問題

成長環境

• 政府振興印度經濟的重要舉措
• 推動印度商用車市場的主要趨勢
• 卡車應用概述
• 印度貨運類別和類型
• 印度卡車生態系統
• 2022 年全球商用車概況
• 2023年OEM形勢
• 法規與政策，2023-2027 年展望
• 電動車(EV)獎勵與補貼，2023 年

成長機會分析

• 主要成長指標
• 預測標準
• 印度商用車市場的成長動力
• 印度商用車市場成長抑制因素

應用和行業前景

• 卡車銷售：依用途分類
• 宅配、快遞、小包裹（CEP）物流
• 耐久性消費品、零售、電子商務
• 快消品、藥品、文件
• 道路建設/房地產
• 規劃的道路建設
• 水果、蔬菜、牛奶
• 農產品

過去的銷售業績

• LD卡車銷售週期
• 2018-2022年LD卡車市場佔有率對比
• MD卡車銷售週期
• 2018-2022年MD卡車市場佔有率比較
• 高畫質卡車銷售週期
• 2018-2022年高畫質卡車市場佔有率比較

銷量和動力傳動系統總成預測

• 2022-2035年印度商用車銷售預測
• LD卡車銷售預測
• LD卡車動力傳動系統總成預測
• MD卡車銷售預測
• MD卡車動力傳動系統總成預測
• 高畫質卡車銷量預測
• HD 卡車動力傳動系統總成預測
• 預測討論

替代燃料生態系統

• LNG
• CNG
• 交通運輸業NG
• 氫生態系統

卡車技術系統

• 卡車技術藍圖
• 機艙人體工學
• 燃油效率提升，2021-2035

安全/遠端資訊處理系統

• 卡車安全系統
• 採用卡車安全系統，2022-2035 年
• 卡車遠端資訊裝置量
• 卡車遠端資訊市場佔有率
• 卡車遠端資訊處理的特點：按OEM
• 卡車遠端資訊裝置量預測

OEM簡介

• 塔塔汽車 - OEM簡介
• 塔塔汽車 - OEM型號，2023 年
• Ashok Leyland - OEM簡介
• Ashok Leyland - OEM型號，2023 年
• Eicher - OEM簡介
• Eicher - OEM型號，2023 年
• 馬恆達 - OEM簡介
• Mahindra - OEM型號，2023 年

成長機會宇宙

• 成長機會 1 - 採用低排放氣體和零排放卡車
• 成長機會 2 – 新的卡車擁有量和商業模式
• 成長機會 3 – 改善安全性和連網型遠端資訊處理解決方案

下一步

Alternative Powertrains and New Business Models Will Ensure Transformational Growth

The Indian trucking industry includes a diverse range of vehicles, operators, and logistics services and is a critical driver of economic growth and development. Following years of axle load regulation and the implementation of Bharat Stage 6 emission norms, the industry faced stagnant volumes made worse by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the industry is in the recovery and growth phase now. In 2022, total truck shipment was 0.87 million units. The largest share of the market remains with the light-duty segment, with 0.56 million trucks sold in 2022, followed by the heavy-duty segment with 0.22 trucks, and the medium-duty segment with 0.09 million trucks. With pivotal initiatives such as Bharatmala focusing on road infrastructure and Sagarmala on the modernization of ports, a comprehensive national logistics policy, and a national infrastructure pipeline, the outlay for development is high and will boost the demand for truck deployment.

Despite elevated diesel prices, sales of compressed natural gas (CNG) trucks have increased in the medium-duty segment, accounting for 27.8% of the overall powertrain. Revised CNG pricing will boost sales. The dedicated liquified natural gas (LNG) policy will increase LNG usage in trucks, especially in the heavy-duty segment, as LNG offers a longer range and performance similar to that of diesel. Leading OEMs have showcased their LNG models as prototypes, with launches expected in 2024. Truck electrification will start with light-duty trucks, target last-mile operations, and expand to other segments when charging infrastructure and acquisition cost improves. Electrification in commercial vehicles is further bolstered by subsidies from the central and state governments. In addition, production-linked incentives (PLI) are also available for OEMs. The rise in connectivity and telematics solutions by third-party players and OEMs is improving fleet management for customers; however, more regulation is expected. The overall growth trajectory of the Indian commercial vehicle sector will remain strong.

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Indian Commercial Vehicle Industry
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Study Scope

• Scope of Analysis
• Product and Powertrain Segmentation
• Research Aims and Objectives
• Key Questions This Study Will Answer

Growth Environment

• Pivotal Government Initiatives Focusing on Boosting the Indian Economy
• Key Trends Driving the Indian Commercial Vehicle Market
• Truck Applications Overview
• Freight Transport Categories and Types, India
• Truck Ecosystem in India
• Snapshot of Global Commercial Vehicles in 2022
• OEM Landscape, 2023
• Regulations and Policies, 2023-2027 Outlook
• Electric Vehicle (EV) Incentives and Subsidies, 2023

Growth Opportunity Analysis

• Key Growth Metrics
• Forecast Criteria
• Growth Drivers for the Indian Commercial Vehicle Market
• Growth Restraints for the Indian Commercial Vehicle Market

Application Usage and Sector Outlook

• Truck Sales by Application
• Courier, Express, and Parcel (CEP) Logistics
• Consumer Durables, Retail, and eCommerce
• FMCG, Pharma, and Documents
• Road Construction and Real Estate
• Planned Road Construction
• Fruit, Vegetables, and Milk
• Agricultural Products

Historic Unit Sales Performance Review

• LD Truck Sales Cycles
• LD Truck Market Share Comparison for CY 2018-2022
• MD Truck Sales Cycles
• MD Truck Market Share Comparison for CY 2018-2022
• HD Truck Sales Cycles
• HD Truck Market Share Comparison for CY 2018-2022

Unit Sales and Powertrain Forecast

• Indian Commercial Vehicle Unit Sales Forecast, 2022-2035
• LD Truck Unit Sales Forecast
• LD Truck Powertrain Forecast
• MD Truck Unit Sales Forecast
• MD Truck Powertrain Forecast
• HD Truck Unit Sales Forecast
• HD Truck Powertrain Forecast
• Forecast Discussion

Alternative Fuels Ecosystem

• LNG
• CNG
• NG for the Transportation Sector
• Hydrogen Ecosystem

Truck Technology Systems

• Truck Technology Road Map
• Cabin Ergonomics
• Fuel Efficiency Improvements, 2021-2035

Safety and Telematics Systems

• Truck Safety Systems
• Truck Safety System Adoption, 2022-2035
• Truck Telematics Installed Base
• Truck Telematics Market Share
• Truck Telematics Feature by OEM
• Truck Telematics Installed Base Forecast

OEM Profiles

• Tata Motors-OEM Profile
• Tata Motors-OEM Models, 2023
• Ashok Leyland-OEM Profile
• Ashok Leyland-OEM Models, 2023
• Eicher-OEM Profile
• Eicher-OEM Models, 2023
• Mahindra-OEM Profile
• Mahindra-OEM Models, 2023

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1-Adoption of Low- and Zero-emission Trucks
• Growth Opportunity 2-New Truck Ownership and Business Models
• Growth Opportunity 3-Improved Safety and Connected Telematics Solutions

Next Steps

• Your Next Steps
• Why Frost, Why Now?
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer