行動的未來：從行動即服務到生活方式即服務的轉變

全球共享行動市場的收入機會價值 2.5 萬億美元，考慮到公共交通等傳統行動模式，以及未來十年將出現的自主和未來行動模式，預計將超過這一數字。

本報告研究和分析全球共享行動，提供關鍵的商業模式、趨勢和增長機會。

內容

戰略要務

• 為什麼增長變得越來越困難？
• 戰略要務 8 (TM)
• 三大戰略要務對未來行動的影響
• 增長機會推動增長管道引擎 (TM)

增長機會分析

• 增長驅動力
• 抑制增長的因素
• 行動需求的變化影響行動方式
• 到 2040 年推動行動行為發生變化的三大支柱
• 行為變化1：人口向郊區遷移
• 行為變化 2：對主動交通的偏好
• 城市基礎設施的變化 1：城市干預
• 城市基礎設施的變化 2：交通樞紐的引入
• 技術變革一：4G/5G技術滲透
• 技術變革 2：用於車隊管理的智能 ML 和 AI 技術

共享行動：當前的商業模式

• 共享行動：今天和 2040 年
• 城市轉換：15分鐘城市
• 大流行後的員工流動需求
• 共享行動的主要商業模式和趨勢

共享行動：未來的商業模式

• 未來的共享行動業務模式
• 未來共享行動業務模式：時間表
• 未來的共享行動業務模式
• 未來共享行動模式 1：自動班車
• 未來共享行動模式 2：Robotaxi
• 未來共享行動模式 3：自主模塊化運輸
• 未來共享行動模式 4：eVTOL
• 未來共享行動模式 5：磁懸浮
• 未來共享行動模式 6：自主微型行動
• 未來共享行動模式 7：超級高鐵
• 未來共享行動模式 8：亞軌道行動

流動性支柱的融合

• 五層匯聚
• 基礎設施集成
• 技術融合
• 利益相關者趨同
• Super MaaS 應用服務的融合
• 生活方式選擇和移動性的融合

2040 年城市願景

• 未來城市願景 2040
• 未來城市行動操作系統

增長機會領域

• 增長機會 1：數據傳輸/共享協議的標準化
• 增長機會 2：擴大生態系統以吸引社區利益相關者
• 增長機會 3：來自 AI 和 VR 的輔助收入流

Visionary Perspective on Rapid Multimodal Transportation Until 2040

Driven by behavioral, city-related, or technologies trends, shared mobility is set to generate several opportunities.

Technology has changed the way people move from point A to point B, over the last decade. Transportation services have become more connected and shareable with the rise of platform apps. Over the next decade, this technology-led transformation will bring about profound changes in how people commute or travel.

The overall revenue opportunity from the shared mobility market is expected to be exceed 2.5 trillion, taking into consideration traditional mobility modes including public transport and autonomous and futuristic mobility modes that we are likely to see in the next decade. Mobility is going to change-in the form of vehicles, in the form of new infrastructure, and in the form of value-added services which we will experience. While journey in the future is expected to become more connected, it is set to get more personalized as well. Consumers want more accurate and tailor-made experiences in the digital space. Just as eCommerce companies have been able to analyze vast volumes of shopping data to generate suggestions and offer discounts, the mobility space is also looking to harness this data to create a more personalized travelling experience.

In this research service, Frost & Sullivan analyzes key business models that are likely to to shape the shared mobility market until 2040. We have looked at how various parameters, such as technology, services, and stakeholders, have to come together to help cities achieve the future they envisioned. The growth opportunities are numerous and ever changing; this study documents the most important growth opportunities in the shared mobility space.

Table of Contents

Strategic Imperatives

• Why Is It Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
• The Strategic Imperative 8™
• The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic Imperatives on the Future of Mobility
• Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Growth Opportunity Analysis

• Growth Drivers
• Growth Restraints
• Changing Mobility Demand to Influence Mobility Modes
• 3 Pillars that will Drive Change in Mobility Behavior Until 2040
• Behavioral Changes 1: Population Movement to Suburbs
• Behavioral Changes 2: Preference for Active Modes of Travel
• City Infrastructure Changes 1: City Interventions
• City Infrastructure Changes 2: Mobility Hubs Pilot
• Technology Changes 1: Penetration of 4G/5G Technologies
• Technology Changes 2: Intelligent ML and AI Technologies for Fleet Management

Shared Mobility: Current Business Models

• Shared Mobility: Now vs. 2040
• City Landscape Changing: 15-minute City
• Post-pandemic Mobility Needs of Employees
• Top Shared Mobility Business Models and Trends

Shared Mobility: Future Business Models

• Future Shared Mobility Business Models
• Future Shared Mobility Business Models: Timelines
• Future Shared Mobility Business Models,
• Future Shared Mobility Model 1: Autonomous Shuttles
• Future Shared Mobility Model 2: Robotaxis
• Future Shared Mobility Model 3: Autonomous Modular Transport
• Future Shared Mobility Model 4: eVTOL
• Future Shared Mobility Model 5: Maglev
• Future Shared Mobility Model 6: Autonomous Micromobility
• Future Shared Mobility Model 7: Hyperloop
• Future Shared Mobility Model 8: Suborbital Travel

Convergence of Mobility Pillars

• 5 Layers of Convergence
• Convergence of Infrastructure
• Convergence of Technologies
• Convergence of Stakeholders
• Convergence of Services through a Super MaaS App
• Convergence of Lifestyle Choices and Mobility

Vision 2040 City

• Vision 2040 of a Future City
• Mobility Operating Systems of a Future City

Growth Opportunity Universe

• Growth Opportunity 1: Standardization of Data Transfer/Sharing Protocols
• Growth Opportunity 1: Standardization of Data Transfer/Sharing Protocols (continued)
• Growth Opportunity 2: Expansion of Ecosystem to Appeal to Adjacent Stakeholders
• Growth Opportunity 2: Expansion of Ecosystem to Appeal to Adjacent Stakeholders (continued)
• Growth Opportunity 3: Ancillary Revenue Streams from AI and VR
• Growth Opportunity 3: Ancillary Revenue Streams from AI and VR (continued)
• List of Exhibits
• Legal Disclaimer