![]() |
市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1890754
永續航空燃料 (SAF) 市場規模、佔有率、成長及全球產業分析:依類型、應用和地區劃分的洞察與預測 (2024-2032)Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Market Size, Share, Growth and Global Industry Analysis By Type & Application, Regional Insights and Forecast to 2024-2032 |
||||||
全球永續航空燃料 (SAF) 市場正快速改變航空業的脫碳進程。在減少碳排放的壓力不斷增加、企業永續發展措施日益加強以及政府監管不斷完善的推動下,2024 年市場規模預計將達到 18.4519 億美元。在大規模永續航空燃料 (SAF) 採購合約和生產技術方面大量投資的支持下,預計到 2025 年,SAF 市場規模將顯著增長至 27.2378 億美元。到 2032 年,SAF 市場預計將達到 286.3636 億美元,2025 年至 2032 年的複合年增長率 (CAGR) 將達到 39.95%。
北美在 2024 年佔市場主導地位,市佔率為 46%,這得益於強有力的政策支持、稅收優惠以及諸如美國 SAF 大挑戰計劃等舉措。該計劃旨在到 2030 年實現年產 30 億加侖 SAF。 SAF 的重要性日益凸顯,因為航空業佔全球二氧化碳排放量的 2%,佔交通運輸排放量的 12%。根據國際民航組織 (ICAO) 的數據,到 2024 年,46 個機場將有超過 36 萬架次商業航班使用可持續航空燃料 (SAF),這表明全球範圍內 SAF 的普及速度正在迅速增長。
市場動態
驅動因素:對低碳替代燃料的需求加速成長
人們對氣候變遷的日益關注,加上航空排放量的不斷上升,正推動航空公司向永續燃料轉型。根據原料和生產方法的不同,SAF 可以將生命週期內的二氧化碳排放量減少高達 80%。國際航空運輸協會 (IATA) 估計,到 2050 年實現航空淨零排放目標,SAF 將佔航空減排總量的 65%,因此,大規模生產 SAF 的緊迫性前所未有。
政府介入也在推動 SAF 的普及。歐盟的 "ReFuelEU" 強制令(要求到2025年實現2%的可持續航空燃料(SAF)比例)以及英國即將於2025年實施的SAF強制令,正迫使航空公司過渡到更高的混合比例。在美國,一項將於2024年推出的政策調整將使乙醇基原料有資格獲得SAF補貼,從而提振投資者信心。
機會:技術創新與生產規模化
新科技正在迅速湧現。儘管HEFA-SPK製程因其原料彈性仍是目前主流的SAF生產工藝,但諸如醇製航空煤油和費托合成(FT)等替代技術也在不斷發展。 2024年,霍尼韋爾推出了一種新型生物質基SAF加氫裂解技術,與化石基航空煤油相比,該技術可減少90%的排放。 LanzaJet 的 Freedom Pines 燃料工廠是全球首家商業化乙醇衍生可持續航空燃料 (SAF) 工廠,該工廠在 2024 年也迎來了一個重要的里程碑。
全球企業措施正加速市場成長。美國、歐洲和亞洲的主要航空公司正在採用 SAF 來實現其永續發展目標。近期簽訂的合約包括加拿大航空採購 6 萬噸 SAF、新加坡航空採購 1000 噸 SAF 以及波音公司在 2024 年購買 750 萬加侖混合 SAF。
限制因素:高成本與原料限制
儘管發展勢頭強勁,但 SAF 的普及仍受到高昂生產成本的限制,目前其成本是傳統航空燃料的 2 至 7 倍。 2023 年,SAF 的平均價格為每噸 2,500 美元,約為傳統航空燃料成本的 2.8 倍。廢棄食用油、牛油、廢油和脂肪等原料短缺進一步限制了產能。根據 SkyNRG 的一份報告,到 2050 年滿足全球可持續航空燃料 (SAF) 的需求將需要新建 500 至 800 座 SAF 設施,以及約 1 兆美元的投資,這凸顯了這項工作的規模之大。
主要細分市場特徵
截至 2024 年,生物燃料憑藉其與現有飛機和基礎設施的兼容性,佔了 SAF 類型市場 87% 的佔有率,處於領先地位。
在技術領域,HEFA-SPK 處於領先地位,而 ATJ-SPK 憑藉其靈活的醇類原料選擇,預計將成長最快。
就混合能力而言,隨著航空公司提高 SAF 混合比例以實現淨零排放目標,30-50% 的混合比例將在 2024 年佔主導地位。
由於航空公司加強了永續發展工作,商業航空領域將佔最大佔有率。
依應用領域劃分,在原始設備製造商 (OEM) 測試和政府激勵措施的支持下,固定翼飛機將在 2024 年佔主導地位。
北美仍將是最大的區域市場,預計到 2024 年將達到 12.6461 億美元。強而有力的政策框架和 Neste、World Energy 等主要可持續航空燃料 (SAF) 供應商將繼續支持市場擴張。
歐洲將位居第二,這主要得益於積極的減排政策。在大型 SAF 採購合約和嚴格的監管義務的推動下,預計到 2025 年,SAF 市場規模將達到 8.866 億美元。
亞太地區正在快速擴張,航空運輸量迅速成長,中國、日本、澳洲和印度也推出了新的 SAF 計畫。
拉丁美洲和非洲是新興市場,擁有豐富的生物質資源和有利的政府政策支持,例如巴西2024年頒布的 "未來燃料法案" 。
The global sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market is rapidly transforming the aviation industry's decarbonization efforts. In 2024, the market reached USD 1,845.19 million, driven by rising pressure to reduce carbon emissions, increased corporate sustainability commitments, and expanding government mandates. The market is expected to grow significantly to USD 2,723.78 million in 2025, supported by large-scale SAF procurement agreements and substantial investments in production technologies. By 2032, the SAF market is projected to reach an impressive USD 28,636.36 million, exhibiting a robust CAGR of 39.95% from 2025 to 2032.
North America dominated the market in 2024 with a 46% share, fueled by strong policy support, tax incentives, and initiatives such as the U.S. SAF Grand Challenge, targeting 3 billion gallons of annual production by 2030. SAF's importance continues to rise as aviation accounts for 2% of global CO2 emissions and 12% of transportation-sector emissions. More than 360,000 commercial flights across 46 airports used SAF in 2024, according to ICAO, reflecting rapid global adoption.
Market Dynamics
Drivers: Accelerating Demand for Low-Carbon Alternatives
Growing awareness of climate change, combined with aviation's increasing emissions footprint, is driving airlines to transition to sustainable fuels. SAF can reduce lifecycle CO2 emissions by up to 80%, depending on feedstock and production method. As IATA estimates that 65% of aviation emission reductions needed for net-zero by 2050 will come from SAF, the urgency for large-scale production has never been greater.
Government intervention is also boosting adoption. Mandates such as the EU's ReFuelEU, requiring 2% SAF use by 2025, and the U.K.'s SAF mandate beginning in 2025, are pushing airlines toward higher blending ratios. In the U.S., 2024 policy changes allowed ethanol-based feedstocks to qualify for SAF subsidies, increasing investor confidence.
Opportunities: Technological Innovation and Scaling Production
New technologies are emerging rapidly. HEFA-SPK remains the dominant SAF production pathway due to feedstock flexibility, but alternatives like Alcohol-to-Jet and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) are expanding. In 2024, Honeywell introduced a new biomass-to-SAF hydrocracking technology capable of reducing emissions by 90% versus fossil-based jet fuel. The world's first commercial ethanol-to-jet SAF plant, LanzaJet's Freedom Pines Fuels, also opened in 2024, marking a major milestone.
Global corporate initiatives are accelerating market growth. Major airlines across the U.S., Europe, and Asia are adopting SAF to meet sustainability targets. Recent agreements include Air Canada's procurement of 60,000 tons, Singapore Airlines' purchase of 1,000 tons, and Boeing's acquisition of 7.5 million gallons of blended SAF in 2024.
Restraints: High Cost and Feedstock Constraints
Despite strong momentum, SAF adoption is hindered by high production costs-currently 2 to 7 times higher than conventional jet fuel. In 2023, SAF averaged USD 2,500 per ton, approximately 2.8X the cost of traditional jet fuel. Feedstock scarcity-especially for used cooking oil, tallow, and waste fats-further limits production capacity. SkyNRG reports that achieving global SAF demand in 2050 would require 500-800 new SAF facilities and approximately USD 1 trillion in investment, reflecting the enormous scale required.
Segmentation Highlights
Biofuel dominated SAF types in 2024 with an 87% market share, due to compatibility with existing aircraft and infrastructure.
HEFA-SPK led the technology segment, while ATJ-SPK is projected to grow fastest due to flexible alcohol feedstock options.
In blending capacity, the 30-50% segment dominated in 2024 as airlines increased SAF blending to achieve net-zero targets.
The commercial aviation segment held the largest share due to rising airline sustainability commitments.
By application, fixed-wing aircraft dominated in 2024, supported by OEM testing and government incentives.
North America remained the largest regional market, valued at USD 1,264.61 million in 2024. Strong policy frameworks and leading SAF suppliers, such as Neste and World Energy, continue to support expansion.
Europe ranked second, anchored by its aggressive emission-reduction mandates. The region is forecast to reach USD 886.60 million in 2025, driven by large SAF procurement contracts and strict regulatory obligations.
Asia Pacific is expanding due to rapid air-traffic growth and new SAF initiatives in China, Japan, Australia, and India.
Latin America and Africa are emerging markets, supported by abundant biomass and favorable government policies such as Brazil's Fuel of the Future Law (2024).
Conclusion
With market value rising from USD 1,845.19 million in 2024 to USD 28,636.36 million by 2032, Sustainable Aviation Fuel is positioned as the most critical pillar of aviation's decarbonization pathway. Despite cost barriers and feedstock challenges, expanding technologies, supportive regulations, and large-scale airline commitments will drive unprecedented growth through 2032.
Segmentation By Type, Technology, Blending Capacity, End Use, and Application
By Type
By Technology
By Blending Capacity
By End Use
By Application
By Region * North America (By Type, Technology, Blending Capacity, End Use, Application, and Country)