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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1802042
自主式最後一哩發送的全球市場:各零件,各機器人類型,各車輛類型,負載容量,各用途,各產業,場所,各地區,市場規模,產業動態,機會分析,預測(2025年~2033年)Global Autonomous Last Mile Delivery Market: Component, Robot Type, Vehicle Type, Payload, Application, Industry, Location, Region, Market Size, Industry Dynamics, Opportunity Analysis and Forecast for 2025-2033 |
自動駕駛最後一哩配送市場目前正經歷快速顯著的成長,這主要得益於電子商務的蓬勃發展、消費者對更快配送方式的需求不斷增長以及自動化技術的顯著進步。預計2024年該市場規模約為300.5億美元,反映了自動駕駛配送解決方案的強勁應用和投資。未來預測顯示,該市場將大幅擴張,到 2033 年估值將達到 1,853 億美元。這一增長在 2025 年至 2033 年的預測期內,複合年增長率高達 22.4%。
目前,自動駕駛最後一哩配送市場正經歷快速顯著的成長,這主要得益於以下幾個關鍵因素:電子商務的爆炸性成長、消費者對更快配送方式的需求不斷增長,以及自動化技術的顯著進步。預計到 2024 年,該市場規模將達到約 300.5 億美元,反映了市場對自動駕駛配送解決方案的強勁應用和投資。未來預測顯示,該市場將大幅擴張,到2033年估值將達1,853億美元。這一成長意味著2025年至2033年的複合年增長率為22.4%。
全球自動駕駛最後一哩配送市場的領導企業,包括Starship Technologies、京東、美團和Kiwibot,共同管理超過10,000輛自動駕駛汽車。 Starship Technologies憑藉其令人矚目的成就脫穎而出,截至2024年初,其全球商業配送量已達600萬次,彰顯了該公司廣泛的業務覆蓋範圍以及對自動駕駛配送解決方案日益增長的信心。
儘管在2024年經濟情勢普遍存在不確定性,但自動駕駛最後一哩配送領域仍吸引了大量資本投資。 Starship Technologies完成了由Plural和Iconical領投的9,200萬美元C輪融資。
擁有 5,000 輛小型貨車的中國自動駕駛叫車公司新石器宣布與沙烏地阿拉伯公共投資基金建立戰略合資企業,在利雅德建立一家組裝廠。該工廠的目標是每年生產多達 8,000 輛汽車,體現了其對區域製造能力和本地市場滲透的重視。這些發展凸顯了投資者對將自主研發的自動駕駛系統與輕資產服務協議相結合,從而實現可預測的收入流和可持續利潤率的公司的興趣。
核心推動因素
隨著城市電商市場的蓬勃發展,自動駕駛 "最後一哩路" 配送受到電商訂單的顯著影響。在紐約、洛杉磯和芝加哥等大都會地區,每天有超過 1,000 萬個包裹被遞送,其中近 800 萬個來自線上零售平台。如此驚人的配送量給傳統配送系統帶來了巨大壓力,尤其是在消費者越來越期望更快的服務,例如當日達或一小時送達的情況下。
因此,自主地面機器人和空中無人機在這些城市中心已變得司空見慣,並被廣泛部署於試點計畫中,並不斷拓展商業運作。亞馬遜、聯邦快遞和沃爾瑪等行業領導者已部署了由 2,000 多個地面配送機器人和約 800 架無人機組成的聯合車隊,利用這些技術提高配送速度、降低成本並高效地在擁擠的城市環境中導航。這些自主系統非常適合克服傳統配送方式面臨的許多課題,包括交通擁堵、停車位有限和勞動力短缺。
新的機會趨勢
到 2024 年,自主最後一哩配送市場的一個決定性趨勢將是感測器融合平台的快速採用和整合,旨在顯著提升車輛的導航能力。感測器融合技術整合了多種感測模式,包括光達、雷達、攝影機和超音波感測器,以提供對車輛周圍環境的全面、即時的了解。這種多感測器方法與先進的邊緣AI處理器相輔相成,可動態合成大量資料流。
領先的OEM廠商和解決方案提供商,例如Starship Technologies、Nuro和京東物流,正在積極投資這些技術,僅在過去12個月內就採購了超過25,000台雷射雷達和50,000台高解析度攝影機。這些大規模採購反映了感測器融合在解決複雜的城市配送環境課題中的關鍵作用。利用來自各種感測器的數據,自動駕駛系統可以準確偵測障礙物、解讀動態交通流量,並以前所未有的精確度應對不可預測的場景。
優化障礙
公共安全對自動駕駛最後一哩配送市場構成了重大且持續的課題,尤其是在人口稠密的城市地區,機器人和無人機的部署變得越來越普遍。隨著這些自動駕駛設備在人行道、道路和空域的使用率不斷上升,人們對它們與行人、騎乘者和車輛之間互動的擔憂也日益加深。
舊金山、倫敦和東京等人口密集、交通環境複雜的大城市正面臨這些課題。自2024年1月以來,這些城市的市政當局已通報了4,000多起涉及自動駕駛配送設備的事故。這些事件凸顯了將自動駕駛技術融入繁忙城市景觀的複雜性。
從要素來看,硬體將繼續成為推動2024年自動駕駛最後一哩配送市場發展的基礎要素,佔總市場佔有率的44.10%,並在投資和營運中佔相當大的比重。硬體在該領域的重要性源於它對自動駕駛配送車輛的可靠性、安全性和整體性能的直接影響。隨著市場的不斷發展,機器人製造商越來越重視實體零件的技術創新,以滿足實際應用的嚴格要求。
按機器人類型劃分,無人機 (UAV) 在自主最後一哩配送市場佔了強勢地位,佔了超過 64.50% 的主導市場佔有率。無人機的優勢主要在於其無與倫比的速度、操作靈活性以及規避地面擁堵的獨特能力。與地面配送機器人不同,無人機可以應對交通擁堵、擁擠道路和基礎設施瓶頸,從而實現更快、更有效率的配送。這種能力使其在人口稠密的城市和郊區尤為重要,而傳統的配送車輛在這些地區經常面臨嚴重的延誤。
按有效載荷大小劃分,有效載荷在 2 至 10 公斤之間的無人機在自主最後一英里配送市場佔主導地位,佔了超過 35.2% 的顯著市場佔有率。這些無人機在營運效率和多功能性之間實現了理想的平衡,使其成為各種配送場景的理想選擇。它們能夠處理從標準包裹到重型大件物品等各種負載,進一步鞏固了其在該領域的主導地位。這些中程酬載無人機目前佔所有自主空中配送的70%以上,彰顯了其在滿足消費者和企業不斷變化的需求方面發揮的關鍵作用。
按車輛類型劃分,空中配送無人機已迅速成為自主最後一哩配送市場的主導車型,佔了約48.30%的顯著市場佔有率。其崛起得益於其卓越的效率和適應性,使其非常適合在人口稠密的城市環境和較為分散的農村地區遞送包裹。到2024年,這些無人機將負責完成主要城市60%以上的自主最後一哩配送,反映出它們已被消費者和物流供應商廣泛採用。 Wing 和 Amazon Prime Air 等領先營運商報告稱,其平均配送時間不到 25 分鐘,彰顯了無人機為 "最後一英里" 物流帶來的速度和可靠性。
各零件
各機器人類型
各車輛類型
按負載容量
各用途
各產業
按場所
各地區
The autonomous last mile delivery market is currently experiencing rapid and substantial growth, fueled by several key factors, including the surge in e-commerce activity, increasing consumer demand for faster delivery options, and significant advancements in automation technologies. In 2024, the market was valued at approximately US$ 30.05 billion, reflecting robust adoption and investment in autonomous delivery solutions. Looking ahead, projections indicate that the market is set to expand dramatically, reaching an estimated valuation of US$ 185.30 billion by 2033. This growth corresponds to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.4% over the forecast period from 2025 to 2033.
The Autonomous Last Mile Delivery market is currently experiencing rapid and substantial growth, fueled by several key factors including the surge in e-commerce activity, increasing consumer demand for faster delivery options, and significant advancements in automation technologies. In 2024, the market was valued at approximately US$ 30.05 billion, reflecting robust adoption and investment in autonomous delivery solutions. Looking ahead, projections indicate that the market is set to expand dramatically, reaching an estimated valuation of US$ 185.30 billion by 2033. This growth corresponds to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.4% over the forecast period from 2025 to 2033.
Major players in the global autonomous last mile delivery market, including Starship Technologies, JD.com, Meituan, and Kiwibot, collectively manage fleets that exceed 10,000 vehicles. Starship Technologies stands out with a remarkable achievement of surpassing 6 million commercial deliveries worldwide by early 2024, highlighting the company's extensive operational reach and the growing reliance on autonomous delivery solutions.
Despite broader economic uncertainties throughout 2024, the autonomous last mile delivery sector attracted significant capital investment. Starship Technologies notably secured a $92 million Series C funding round led by Plural and Iconical, funds that are designated for expanding its fleet across twenty new college campuses in the United States.
Chinese autonomous delivery company Neolix, which operates a fleet of 5,000 minivans, announced a strategic joint venture with Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund to establish an assembly plant in Riyadh. This facility aims to produce up to 8,000 units annually, reflecting a growing emphasis on regional manufacturing capabilities and local market penetration. These developments highlight the strong investor appetite for companies that combine proprietary autonomous driving systems with asset-light service contracts, allowing for predictable revenue streams and sustainable margins.
Core Growth Drivers
As the urban e-commerce market grows rapidly, autonomous last mile delivery is being profoundly impacted by e-commerce orders. Major metropolitan areas such as New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago collectively handle over 10 million package deliveries each day, with nearly 8 million of these shipments originating from online retail platforms. This staggering volume has created immense pressure on traditional delivery systems, which are increasingly unable to cope with the demand-especially as consumers raise their expectations for faster service, including same-day and even one-hour delivery windows.
In response, autonomous ground robots and aerial drones have become a common sight in these urban centers, deployed extensively in pilot programs and expanding commercial operations. Industry giants like Amazon, FedEx, and Walmart have collectively deployed more than 2,000 ground-based delivery robots alongside approximately 800 drones, leveraging these technologies to improve delivery speed, reduce costs, and navigate congested city environments more effectively. These autonomous systems are uniquely suited to overcome many of the challenges faced by conventional delivery methods, such as traffic congestion, limited parking, and labor shortages.
Emerging Opportunity Trends
A defining trend in the autonomous last mile delivery market throughout 2024 is the rapid adoption and integration of sensor fusion platforms aimed at significantly enhancing vehicle navigation capabilities. Sensor fusion technology combines multiple sensing modalities-including LIDAR, radar, cameras, and ultrasonic sensors-into a cohesive system that provides a comprehensive, real-time understanding of the vehicle's surroundings. This multi-sensor approach is complemented by advanced edge AI processors, which synthesize the vast streams of data on the fly.
Leading original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and solution providers such as Starship Technologies, Nuro, and JD Logistics have aggressively invested in these technologies, collectively purchasing over 25,000 LIDAR units and 50,000 high-resolution cameras over the past twelve months alone. These substantial procurements reflect the critical importance of sensor fusion in solving the challenges posed by complex urban delivery environments. By leveraging data from diverse sensors, autonomous systems can accurately detect obstacles, interpret dynamic traffic flows, and navigate unpredictable scenarios with a level of precision that was previously unattainable.
Barriers to Optimization
Public safety continues to pose a significant and ongoing challenge for the autonomous last mile delivery market, especially as the deployment of robots and drones becomes more widespread in densely populated urban areas. With the increasing presence of these autonomous devices on sidewalks, streets, and airspace, concerns about their interaction with pedestrians, cyclists, and vehicles have intensified.
Major cities known for their dense populations and complex traffic environments-such as San Francisco, London, and Tokyo-have been at the forefront of these challenges. Since January 2024, municipal authorities in these cities have reported more than 4,000 incidents involving autonomous delivery devices. These occurrences highlight the complexities that come with integrating autonomous technology into busy urban landscapes.
By Element, in 2024, hardware remains the foundational element driving the autonomous last mile delivery market, representing 44.10% of the total market share as well as a significant portion of investment and operational focus. The critical importance of hardware in this sector stems from its direct influence on the reliability, safety, and overall performance of autonomous delivery vehicles. As the market continues to evolve, robotics manufacturers are increasingly prioritizing innovation in physical components to meet the demanding requirements of real-world operations.
By Robot Type, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have firmly established themselves in the autonomous last mile delivery market, commanding a commanding market share exceeding 64.50%. Their dominance is largely attributed to their unmatched speed, operational flexibility, and unique ability to bypass the challenges associated with ground-level congestion. Unlike ground-based delivery robots, UAVs can fly over traffic jams, crowded streets, and infrastructure bottlenecks, enabling faster and more efficient deliveries. This capability has made them especially valuable in densely populated urban and suburban areas where traditional delivery vehicles often face significant delays.
By Payload, drones with a payload capacity ranging from 2 to 10 kilograms have become the backbone of the autonomous last mile delivery market, commanding a significant market share of over 35.2%. These drones have struck an ideal balance between operational efficiency and versatility, making them the preferred choice for a wide variety of delivery scenarios. Their capacity allows them to handle a diverse range of packages, from standard parcels to heavier or bulkier items, which has driven their dominance in the sector. These mid-range payload drones now account for more than 70% of all autonomous aerial deliveries, showcasing their critical role in meeting the evolving needs of consumers and businesses.
By Vehicle Type, aerial delivery drones have rapidly become the dominant vehicle type within the autonomous last mile delivery market, capturing a substantial market share of nearly 48.30%. Their rise is driven by their exceptional efficiency and adaptability, making them well-suited for delivering packages across both densely populated urban environments and more dispersed rural areas. In 2024, these drones were responsible for completing over 60% of all autonomous last mile deliveries in major cities, reflecting widespread adoption among consumers and logistics providers alike. Leading operators such as Wing and Amazon Prime Air have reported average delivery times of less than 25 minutes, showcasing the speed and reliability that aerial drones bring to last mile logistics.
By Component
By Robot Type
By Vehicle Type
By Payload
By Application
By Industry
By Location
By Region