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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1941131
商用飛機市場-全球產業規模、佔有率、趨勢、機會及預測(按飛機類型、引擎類型、應用、最終用途、地區和競爭格局分類,2021-2031年)Commercial Aircraft Market - Global Industry Size, Share, Trends, Opportunity, and Forecast, Segmented By Aircraft Type, By Engine Type, By Application, By End Use, By Region & Competition, 2021-2031F |
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全球民航機市場預計將從 2025 年的 1,720.5 億美元成長到 2031 年的 2,366.9 億美元,年複合成長率為 5.46%。
民航機市場(指航空公司營運的用於運送乘客和貨物的固定翼飛機)預計將主要受益於全球航空旅行需求的復甦而成長。此外,航空公司面臨著用更節能的飛機替換老舊飛機並降低營運成本的營運壓力。同時,新興地區的經濟成長提高了可支配收入,刺激了客運需求,並促使網路型航空公司擴大機隊規模。
| 市場概覽 | |
|---|---|
| 預測期 | 2027-2031 |
| 市場規模:2025年 | 1720.5億美元 |
| 市場規模:2031年 | 2366.9億美元 |
| 複合年成長率:2026-2031年 | 5.46% |
| 成長最快的細分市場 | 窄體飛機 |
| 最大的市場 | 亞太地區 |
然而,持續的供應鏈中斷造成了許多挑戰,包括生產計畫延誤和新飛機交付延遲。這些物流瓶頸阻礙了製造商充分利用航空旅行的強勁復甦。根據國際航空運輸協會(IATA)的數據,2024年10月,旅客周轉量營收年增7.1%。儘管如此,不斷成長的服務需求與受限的製造能力之間持續存在的差距仍然是限制整個產業擴張的一大障礙。
全球航空客運量和旅行需求的激增正成為全球商用飛機市場的主要驅動力,促使網路型航空公司擴大機隊運力以應對日益成長的航線密度。隨著國際邊境全面開放和消費者信心的恢復,航空公司正優先購買新飛機,以滿足休閒和商務旅客數量的顯著成長。這種旅行需求給製造商帶來了巨大壓力,迫使其加快休閒和寬體飛機的生產速度,以避免高需求航線出現飛機短缺。根據國際航空運輸協會(IATA)於2024年6月發布的《世界航空運輸展望》,預計2024年全球客運量將達到49.6億人次,超過疫情前的水準。這促使航空公司積極增加訂單,以確保交付時刻。
同時,隨著營運商尋求降低可變成本並實現永續性目標,以更節能的飛機加速替換老舊機隊正在刺激市場持續活躍。機隊現代化使航空公司能夠淘汰高耗油飛機,從而提高營運利潤率並符合更嚴格的噪音和排放標準。波音公司於2024年7月發布的《2024-2043年商用飛機市場展望》預測,未來20年所需的44,000架新飛機中,約44%將用於替換老舊噴射機。這種替換週期確保了訂單的穩定,不受經濟波動的影響。國際航空運輸協會(IATA)的預測也支持了這一觀點,即2024年航空公司總收入將達到創紀錄的9,960億美元。
持續的供應鏈中斷對全球民航機市場的成長構成重大阻礙。這些物流瓶頸的特點是原料和關鍵零件(例如引擎和半導體)短缺,嚴重限制了原始設備製造商 (OEM) 的生產能力。因此,生產線無法擴大規模以滿足航空公司對新飛機的激增需求。新飛機交付困難迫使航空公司延長老舊、低效飛機的使用壽命。這增加了維護和燃油成本,同時限制了可利用的座位總數,從而錯失了在全球旅行復甦之際抓住商機。
航空公司對飛機的需求與實際產量之間有顯著的統計脫節。根據國際航空運輸協會(IATA)的數據,2024年航空業預計僅交付1,254架民航機,比疫情前的尖峰時段下降約30%。這種供不應求導致未交付交貨的積壓日益嚴重,而已交付的飛機數量卻沒有相應增加,阻礙了市場充分發揮其收入潛力。
隨著航空公司越來越傾向於使用遠程窄體飛機來最佳化航線網路柔軟性和經濟效益,市場正在經歷根本性的重組。航空公司正在將這些用途廣泛的單通道飛機部署在傳統上由寬體飛機主導的遠程航線上,從而實現直飛,降低旅行成本。這種營運模式的轉變迫使製造商將產業資源集中在提高熱門窄體飛機項目的產量,這些項目具備遠程飛行能力,從而有效地改變了傳統的飛機細分市場格局。根據波音公司於2024年7月發布的《2024-2043年商用飛機市場展望》,預計未來20年單通道飛機將佔新商用飛機交付的76%,凸顯了該細分市場日益成長的主導地位。
同時,航空業正積極擴大永續航空燃料(SAF)的生產和使用,以實現成長與碳排放的脫鉤。這一趨勢無需即時改變推進技術,而是旨在轉型能源供應鏈,使現有和未來的飛機都能滿足嚴格的環保法規。航空公司正在加強與能源供應商的長期採購協議,以促進基礎設施投資並確保減少排放所需的供應。根據國際航空運輸協會(IATA)於2024年6月發布的「淨零碳排放」藍圖新聞稿,預計到2024年,永續航空燃料的產量將成長兩倍,達到19億公升,顯示業界正在迅速行動,支持這項轉型。
The Global Commercial Aircraft Market is projected to expand from USD 172.05 Billion in 2025 to USD 236.69 Billion by 2031, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 5.46%. Commercial aircraft, defined as fixed-wing vehicles operated by airlines to transport paying passengers and cargo, are seeing market growth driven primarily by a resurgence in global air travel demand. Furthermore, airlines face an operational necessity to replace aging fleets with fuel-efficient alternatives to lower operating costs, while economic expansion in emerging regions increases disposable incomes and stimulates passenger traffic, necessitating fleet expansion for network carriers.
| Market Overview | |
|---|---|
| Forecast Period | 2027-2031 |
| Market Size 2025 | USD 172.05 Billion |
| Market Size 2031 | USD 236.69 Billion |
| CAGR 2026-2031 | 5.46% |
| Fastest Growing Segment | Narrow-Body Aircraft |
| Largest Market | Asia Pacific |
However, the market encounters significant obstacles due to persistent supply chain disruptions that delay production schedules and impede the timely delivery of new units. These logistical bottlenecks prevent manufacturers from fully capitalizing on the robust recovery in air travel. According to the International Air Transport Association, total revenue passenger kilometers rose by 7.1 percent in October 2024 compared to the previous year. Despite this growth, the continuing disparity between rising service demand and constrained manufacturing output remains a critical barrier to broader industry expansion.
Market Driver
The surge in global air passenger traffic and travel demand acts as a primary catalyst for the Global Commercial Aircraft Market, pushing network carriers to increase fleet capacity to handle growing route density. As international borders fully reopen and consumer confidence is restored, airlines are prioritizing the acquisition of new assets to manage the substantial volume of leisure and business travelers. This mobility demand creates immense pressure on manufacturers to accelerate production rates for both single-aisle and wide-body airframes to avoid capacity shortages on high-traffic corridors. According to the International Air Transport Association's 'Global Outlook for Air Transport' from June 2024, passenger numbers are projected to reach 4.96 billion in 2024, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, prompting carriers to aggressively expand order books to secure delivery slots.
Simultaneously, the accelerated replacement of aging fleets with fuel-efficient aircraft stimulates continuous market activity as operators strive to lower variable costs and achieve sustainability benchmarks. Modernizing fleets allows airlines to retire fuel-intensive models, improving operating margins and ensuring compliance with stricter noise and emissions standards. Boeing's 'Commercial Market Outlook 2024-2043', released in July 2024, forecasts that nearly 44 percent of the 44,000 new airplanes required over the next two decades will be dedicated to replacing older jets. This renewal cycle ensures a steady stream of orders regardless of economic fluctuations, reflected by the International Air Transport Association's expectation that total airline industry revenues will reach a record USD 996 billion in 2024.
Market Challenge
Persistent supply chain disruptions constitute a major impediment to the growth of the Global Commercial Aircraft Market. These logistical bottlenecks, characterized by shortages in raw materials and critical components such as engines and semiconductors, severely restrict the manufacturing capabilities of original equipment manufacturers. Consequently, production lines are unable to scale up to meet the surging airline demand for new fleet additions. This inability to deliver new units compels airlines to extend the service life of aging, less efficient aircraft, which increases maintenance and fuel costs while simultaneously limiting the total seat capacity available to capture revenue from the global travel recovery.
The disparity between airline fleet requirements and actual manufacturing output is statistically significant. According to the International Air Transport Association, the aviation industry received delivery of only 1,254 commercial aircraft in 2024, a figure approximately 30 percent below the delivery volumes observed during pre-pandemic peaks. This shortfall prevents the market from realizing its full revenue potential, as the backlog of unfilled orders continues to accumulate without a corresponding increase in the transactional turnover of completed assets.
Market Trends
The market is undergoing a fundamental restructuring as airlines increasingly favor long-range narrow-body aircraft to optimize route networks for flexibility and economic efficiency. Carriers are deploying these versatile single-aisle airframes on long-haul routes previously dominated by wide-body jets, enabling direct point-to-point connections with reduced trip costs. This operational shift forces manufacturers to focus industrial resources on increasing throughput for popular narrow-body programs that offer extended range capabilities, effectively altering traditional fleet segmentation. According to Boeing's 'Commercial Market Outlook 2024-2043' from July 2024, single-aisle models are projected to comprise 76 percent of all new commercial airplane deliveries over the next two decades, underscoring the segment's growing dominance.
Concurrently, the aviation sector is aggressively scaling the production and utilization of Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) to decouple growth from carbon emissions. This trend aims to transform the energy supply chain to ensure existing and future aircraft meet rigorous environmental mandates without requiring immediate changes to propulsion technology. Airlines are solidifying long-term offtake agreements with energy providers to stimulate infrastructure investment and secure necessary volumes for emissions reduction. According to a June 2024 press release by the International Air Transport Association regarding the 'Net Zero Carbon Emissions' roadmap, production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel is expected to triple in 2024 to reach 1.9 billion liters, demonstrating rapid industrial mobilization to support this transition.
Report Scope
In this report, the Global Commercial Aircraft Market has been segmented into the following categories, in addition to the industry trends which have also been detailed below:
Company Profiles: Detailed analysis of the major companies present in the Global Commercial Aircraft Market.
Global Commercial Aircraft Market report with the given market data, TechSci Research offers customizations according to a company's specific needs. The following customization options are available for the report: