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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1934272
葡萄乾市場-全球產業規模、佔有率、趨勢、機會和預測:按類型、乾燥方法、最終用戶、分銷管道、地區和競爭格局分類,2021-2031年Raisins Market - Global Industry Size, Share, Trends, Opportunity, and Forecast, Segmented By Type, By Drying Method, By End User, By Distribution Channel, By Region & Competition, 2021-2031F |
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全球葡萄乾市場預計將從 2025 年的 30.2 億美元成長到 2031 年的 46.7 億美元,複合年成長率達到 7.54%。
葡萄乾是一種營養豐富且保存期限長的食品,主要由歐洲葡萄製成,採用日曬或機械脫水工藝生產。市場成長的根本動力在於全球對功能性植物來源零食的需求不斷成長,消費者越來越傾向於選擇高纖維、天然甜味的食品,而非加工食品。此外,烘焙和糖果甜點行業對葡萄乾的持續工業需求也推動了市場發展,葡萄乾在這些行業中是一種重要的潔淨標示原料。根據國際堅果和乾果理事會(INDFC)預測,2024/2025年度全球乾果產量預計將達324萬噸,其中葡萄乾佔比最大,佔消費量的39%。
| 市場概覽 | |
|---|---|
| 預測期 | 2027-2031 |
| 市場規模:2025年 | 30.2億美元 |
| 市場規模:2031年 | 46.7億美元 |
| 複合年成長率:2026-2031年 | 7.54% |
| 成長最快的細分市場 | 線上 |
| 最大的市場 | 歐洲 |
儘管存在這些有利因素,但市場本身對氣候變遷的脆弱性構成了重大障礙。諸如關鍵旱季的異常降雨或長期乾旱等不可預測的天氣事件,會顯著降低作物產量並損害產品品質。這種對有利環境條件的依賴導致供應鏈的不確定性和價格波動,從而對市場的持續擴張構成重大阻礙,尤其是在對價格敏感的發展中地區。
烘焙和糖果甜點產業的成長是市場擴張的主要驅動力,帶動了對葡萄乾這種功能性原料的穩定供應的需求。製造商利用葡萄乾的天然保濕特性來延長烘焙點心的保存期限,同時將其作為潔淨標示的糖替代品,廣泛應用於餅乾、麵包和傳統酥皮點心。這種產業依賴性也體現在全球貿易格局中,麵包消費量高的地區積極採購原料以維持生產。例如,根據美國農業部海外農業局2024年12月發布的《葡萄乾年度報告》,預計2023/24會計年度中國對歐盟的葡萄乾出口將增加436%。這一成長主要是由於歐洲烘焙加工業需要填補供應缺口。
同時,全球消費者對更健康、機能性食品的需求趨勢正在轉變,偏好從加工糖轉向更營養的天然替代品。葡萄乾作為一種方便、富含膳食纖維的零食,正日益受到歡迎,它符合植物來源食品的潮流,並在注重健康的市場中佔據了較高的價格。根據國際堅果和乾果理事會2025年3月發布的《世界統計評論》,土耳其無籽葡萄乾對英國的出口額成長了60%,達到7760萬美元,這表明消費者對優質水果的需求強勁。滿足這項需求需要在主要產區進行大規模生產。根據美國農業部國家農業統計局2025年11月發布的《核桃、葡萄乾和西梅生產州概況》,2024年從加州種植者採購的葡萄乾數量為210368噸。
全球葡萄乾市場面臨的一大障礙是其對氣候變遷的敏感性,氣候變遷削弱了供應鏈的可靠性,並導致價格劇烈波動。由於優質葡萄乾的生產高度依賴自然日曬乾燥過程,因此,諸如收穫期間的異常降雨或長期乾旱等突發性環境變化,會迅速降低作物品質並大幅減少產量。這種對有利天氣的依賴意味著,主要產區的惡劣天氣會迅速導致供不應求,難以保證向關鍵產業夥伴的穩定供應。
這種不確定性造成了動盪的商業環境,抑制了長期投資和擴張,尤其是在對價格敏感的發展中市場。隨著供應趨緊和價格上漲,烘焙和糖果甜點行業的製造商往往被迫轉向更穩定的合成甜味劑或其他水果原料。近期庫存數據顯示,這種波動性十分嚴重。根據國際堅果和乾果理事會(INDFC)的數據,由於過去幾季受天氣影響導致產量下降,2024年無籽葡萄乾的期初庫存下降了49%。緩衝庫存的快速下降削弱了市場應對未來供應中斷的能力,直接阻礙了市場的穩定成長。
機械化採摘技術(例如「藤上晾曬」(DOV))的採用,從根本上改變了葡萄乾的生產經濟模式,緩解了勞動力短缺問題,提高了產量穩定性。種植者正擴大從傳統的手工採摘轉向棚架式種植系統,使葡萄在機械採摘前能夠自然風乾。這種轉變顯著降低了管理成本,並減少了人為污染的風險。這種現代化措施使得葡萄乾的生產能夠持續成長並擴充性,即使在氣候變遷的影響下,也能確保供應滿足產業需求,同時避免了手工採摘帶來的產量波動。根據紅日葡萄乾公司2024年12月發布的第七份報告,預計2025年南非葡萄乾產量將年增8%,為市場增加約7,500公噸。這種成長動能主要歸功於這些高效農業實踐的成功應用。
同時,隨著製造商尋求精製糖的替代品,葡萄乾作為天然甜味劑在潔淨標示產品中的應用正在加速。穀物和烘焙業正在使用葡萄乾醬和濃縮液來保持最終產品的水分和口感,同時仍能宣稱「不添加糖」。在有著嚴格減糖目標的市場,這一趨勢尤其明顯,因為供應商正在調整其出口策略,以瞄準高價值市場並獲得更高的利潤。根據Fruitnet網站2025年3月發表的一篇報導《儘管天氣不利,南非葡萄乾產業依然成長》,預計2024年南非對英國的葡萄乾出口量將達到9326噸,遠高於四年平均。這主要歸功於英國加工商越來越傾向於使用功能性糖替代品。
The Global Raisins Market is projected to expand from USD 3.02 Billion in 2025 to USD 4.67 Billion by 2031, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 7.54%. Raisins, which are dried grapes primarily of the Vitis vinifera variety, are produced using sun-drying or mechanical dehydration methods to create a nutrient-rich, shelf-stable food item. This market growth is fundamentally underpinned by the increasing global demand for functional, plant-based snacks, as consumers increasingly choose high-fiber, naturally sweet options over processed alternatives. Additionally, the market is strengthened by sustained industrial demand from the bakery and confectionery sectors, where raisins are utilized as essential clean-label ingredients. According to the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council, global dried fruit production reached 3.24 million metric tons during the 2024/2025 season, with dried grapes accounting for the largest share of consumption at 39 percent.
| Market Overview | |
|---|---|
| Forecast Period | 2027-2031 |
| Market Size 2025 | USD 3.02 Billion |
| Market Size 2031 | USD 4.67 Billion |
| CAGR 2026-2031 | 7.54% |
| Fastest Growing Segment | Online |
| Largest Market | Europe |
Despite these positive drivers, the market faces a significant obstacle due to its inherent sensitivity to climatic volatility. Unpredictable weather events, such as unseasonal rain during the critical drying period or extended droughts, can severely reduce crop yields and degrade product quality. This reliance on favorable environmental conditions leads to supply chain unpredictability and price instability, presenting a substantial barrier to consistent market expansion, especially in price-sensitive developing regions.
Market Driver
The growth of the bakery and confectionery sectors serves as a primary engine for market expansion, driving the need for consistent supplies of raisins as functional ingredients. Manufacturers are increasingly leveraging the natural humectant qualities of raisins to extend the shelf life of baked goods, while also using them as clean-label sugar substitutes in cookies, breads, and traditional pastries. This industrial reliance is reflected in global trade patterns, where regions with high bakery consumption aggressively source raw materials to sustain production. For instance, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service's 'Raisin Annual' report from December 2024 notes that China's raisin exports to the European Union increased by 436 percent in the 2023/24 marketing year, a surge largely driven by the need to fill supply gaps in the European bakery processing industry.
Concurrently, shifting global consumption patterns toward healthy and functional snacks are moving preferences away from processed sugars in favor of naturally nutritious alternatives. Raisins are gaining popularity as a convenient, high-fiber snack that fits well with plant-based trends, allowing them to command higher prices in health-conscious markets. According to the 'Global Statistical Review' published by the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council in March 2025, the export value of Turkish seedless raisins to the United Kingdom rose by 60 percent to US$77.6 million, demonstrating robust consumer demand for high-quality fruit. Meeting this demand requires substantial production from key regions; the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service reported in its November 2025 'Walnut/Raisin/Prune Report State Summary' that 210,368 tons of raisins were purchased from California producers for the 2024 crop year.
Market Challenge
The primary hurdle impeding the Global Raisins Market is its acute vulnerability to climatic volatility, which disrupts supply chain reliability and causes significant price instability. Because the production of high-quality raisins relies heavily on natural sun-drying processes, sudden environmental changes-such as unseasonal rainfall during harvest or prolonged droughts-can rapidly deteriorate crop quality and severely reduce yields. This inherent dependence on favorable weather means that adverse conditions in major producing regions often result in immediate supply deficits, making it difficult for suppliers to guarantee consistent delivery volumes to key industrial partners.
This unpredictability fosters a volatile commercial environment that discourages long-term investment and expansion, particularly within price-sensitive developing markets. When supplies tighten and prices rise, manufacturers in the bakery and confectionery sectors are often prompted to switch to more stable synthetic sweeteners or alternative fruit ingredients. The severity of this instability is highlighted by recent inventory data; according to the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council, beginning stocks of seedless dried grapes fell by 49 percent in 2024 due to weather-induced production shortfalls in previous seasons. Such a sharp reduction in buffer stocks leaves the market with minimal resilience against future disruptions, directly stalling steady market growth.
Market Trends
The adoption of Dried-on-Vine (DOV) mechanized harvesting methods is fundamentally transforming production economics by alleviating labor shortages and improving yield reliability. Producers are increasingly shifting from traditional hand-picking to trellis-based systems that allow grapes to dry naturally before mechanical collection, a transition that significantly lowers overhead costs and reduces physical contamination risks. This modernization enables sustained output growth and scalability despite climatic variations, ensuring supply meets industrial requirements without the volatility associated with manual labor. As reported by Redsun Raisins in 'Report 7' from December 2024, the 2025 South African raisin crop is projected to increase by 8 percent over the prior year, adding approximately 7,500 metric tons to the market, a resilience largely credited to the successful implementation of these efficient agricultural practices.
Simultaneously, the integration of raisins as natural sweeteners in clean-label formulations is gaining momentum as manufacturers seek alternatives to refined sugars. The cereal and bakery industries are utilizing raisin paste and concentrates to achieve "no added sugar" claims while maintaining moisture and texture in end products. This trend is particularly strong in markets with strict sugar-reduction targets, compelling suppliers to tailor their export strategies toward these high-value destinations to capture premium margins. According to a March 2025 article in Fruitnet titled 'South African raisin sector grows despite weather hit,' export volumes to the United Kingdom reached 9,326 tons in 2024, significantly outperforming the four-year average as British processors increasingly prioritize functional, sugar-alternative ingredients.
Report Scope
In this report, the Global Raisins Market has been segmented into the following categories, in addition to the industry trends which have also been detailed below:
Company Profiles: Detailed analysis of the major companies present in the Global Raisins Market.
Global Raisins Market report with the given market data, TechSci Research offers customizations according to a company's specific needs. The following customization options are available for the report: