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市場調查報告書
商品編碼
1955538
智慧型手機產量或將下降超過15%：2026年記憶體價格飆升將引發成本上漲風暴Smartphone Production May Drop Over 15%: 2026 Memory Surge Ignites Cost Storm |
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受人工智慧伺服器和高效能運算強勁需求的推動，記憶體市場在2025年下半年進入了價格超級週期。記憶體成本上漲迫使各大廠商提高終端產品價格，並縮減低端機型以應對成本壓力。在此背景下，預計2026年全球智慧型手機產量將年減約15%，在悲觀情境下甚至可能進一步下降。然而，鑑於持續的供應短缺和價格上漲的跡象，大多數廠商選擇維持現有供應商的採購量以確保資源供應。值得注意的是，這波記憶體價格上漲正在推高各種電子設備的零售價格，進一步加劇了消費性電子產品的通膨風險。
主要亮點
- 2026年第一季記憶體價格上漲速度超過2025年第四季，全年上漲趨勢未見放緩跡象。自2025年第三季以來，累計價格漲幅遠超預期，成本飆升可能進一步加劇智慧型手機產能的下滑。
- 智慧型手機產業的毛利率本來就較低，品牌難以消化這些成本上漲，也難以透過削減行銷預算來因應。因此，他們被迫透過提高零售價格、減少低端機型比例以及調整高端、中端和低端產品組合來維持營運。
- 儘管整個智慧型手機產業面臨下行壓力，但大多數品牌仍選擇維持現有的長期協議（LTA）。此舉旨在確保在價格持續上漲和供應緊張的情況下，未來的配額和可用資源。
- 此次記憶體價格超級週期主要影響中低階產品和高度依賴單一市場的品牌。在悲觀情境下，2026年全球智慧型手機總產量可能面臨約15%或更多的下調。
- 此記憶體價格超級週期透過各種電子設備的價格調整向下游擴散，進而對整個消費性電子產業造成更廣泛的通膨壓力。
目錄
第一章：隨著記憶體價格持續上漲，智慧型手機產量或將在2026年繼續下降
- 智慧型手機記憶體價格預測
第二章：內存供需仍受限，但智慧型手機長期授權協定（LTA）尚未調整
第三章：記憶體價格上漲對中低階機型衝擊最大，成本壓力也最大
- 智慧型手機產量預測
第四章：記憶體價格超級週期上漲或將為消費性電子產品帶來通膨風險
Driven by robust demand for AI servers and high-performance computing, the memory market has entered a super-cycle of price hikes starting from 2H25. Escalating memory costs are forcing brands to raise end-device prices and scale back low-end models to cope with cost pressures. Against this backdrop, the year-on-year decline in global smartphone production for 2026 could widen to approximately 15%, or potentially even higher, under a pessimistic scenario. However, given the absence of signals indicating a halt in price increases and persistent supply tightness, most brands are choosing to maintain their established procurement volumes with suppliers to secure resource allocations. It is noteworthy that this wave of memory price increases is driving up the retail prices of various electronic devices, further evolving into a broader risk of consumer electronics inflation.
Key Highlights
- Memory price hikes in 1Q26 are expected to surpass those of 4Q25, with no signs of the rally stalling for the remainder of the year. The cumulative price increase since 3Q25 has far exceeded expectations, leading to surging costs that threaten to further exacerbate the deterioration of smartphone production performance.
- Given that smartphone gross margins are already thin, brands can no longer absorb these costs or compress marketing budgets to cope. Consequently, they are forced to maintain operations by raising retail prices, reducing the proportion of low-end models, and restructuring their high, mid, and low-end product mixes.
- Despite the downward pressure facing the overall smartphone industry, most brands are opting to uphold their existing Long-Term Agreements (LTAs). Amidst unceasing price hikes and continued supply tightness, this strategy aims to secure future quotas and available resources.
- This memory super-cycle is primarily impacting mid-to-low-end products and brands highly dependent on single markets. Under a pessimistic scenario, total global smartphone production volume in 2026 faces a potential downward revision of approximately 15%, or even steeper.
- The super-cycle of memory price increases is cascading downstream through price adjustments across various electronic devices, diffusing into more comprehensive inflationary pressure within the consumer electronics sector.
Table of Contents
1. Smartphone Production Could Continue to Deteriorate in 2026 amidst Incessant Price Hikes on Memory
- Smartphone Memory Price Forecast
2. No Adjustments to LTAs among Smartphone Yet under Unchanged Constraints in Memory Supply and Demand
3. Soaring Memory Prices Hit Mid-to-Low-End Models Hardest, Placing Them Under Greatest Cost Pressure
- Smartphone Production Forecast
4. Memory Super-Cycle Price Hikes May Trigger Inflation Risks in Consumer Electronics
