DRAM/NAND快閃記憶體資本支出（2026）：人工智慧驅動的重新評估與產能限制

人工智慧正在推動記憶體需求激增，促使人們重新評估資本支出。然而，潔淨室空間的限制以及從單純的產能擴張轉向先進技術，預計將限制未來比特產量的成長。儘管設備供應商表示樂觀，但記憶體技術面臨的挑戰日益嚴峻。

主要亮點：

• 儘管最初的預測較為謹慎，但不斷增長的人工智慧需求正在推動記憶體資本支出的上調。
• DRAM投資優先考慮先進製程和HBM產能擴張，而無塵室空間的限制將限制比特產量的成長。
• NAND快閃記憶體的資本支出正轉向混合鍵結和增加堆疊層數，但不同供應商的策略各不相同。
• 受人工智慧儲存和雲端服務供應商遷移的推動，NAND快閃記憶體的需求出現了結構性缺口，但製造商對近期擴張仍持謹慎態度。
• 儲存設備供應商對人工智慧驅動的需求持樂觀態度，同時強調先進記憶體日益增長的複雜性和高技術門檻。
• 整個產業的投資正從傳統的位元密度擴展轉向製程升級和高附加價值產品，預計未來位元密度的成長將受到限制。

目錄

第一章：儘管人工智慧需求激增，但儲存產業對2026年的資本支出展望仍保持保守。

• 主要DRAM和NAND快閃供應商的資本支出

第二章：DRAM資本支出概述：重點在於1C與1-Gamma製程過渡以及HBM相關產能擴充

• DRAM產業年度資本支出與位元供應成長
• DRAM供應商晶圓廠擴張計畫

  第三章：NAND快閃資本支出－優先考慮高階產品和QLC，整體水準較保守

  • NAND快閃記憶體產業資本支出與位元供應成長

  第四章：設備供應商對AI驅動的需求持樂觀態度。

  記憶體技術極限將持續提升

  第五章：2026年DRAM和NAND快閃記憶體位成長將受到限制，因為投資將主要轉向先進技術

AI drives surging memory demand, prompting capex revisions. However, limited cleanroom space and a shift to advanced tech over raw capacity will constrain future bit output growth. Equipment vendors are optimistic, yet memory tech hurdles rise.

Key Highlights:

• Strong AI demand is leading to upward revisions in memory capital expenditure, despite initial conservative outlooks.
• DRAM investments prioritize advanced processes and HBM capacity expansion, though cleanroom space limitations constrain bit output growth.
• NAND Flash capex shifts towards hybrid bonding and higher layer counts, with varying strategies among suppliers.
• NAND Flash demand, fueled by AI storage and cloud provider shifts, represents a structural shortage; however, manufacturers remain cautious about immediate expansion.
• Memory equipment suppliers are optimistic about AI-driven demand, highlighting the increasing complexity and high technical hurdles in advanced memory.
• Overall industry investment is transitioning from traditional bit capacity expansion to process upgrades and high-value products, resulting in limited future bit growth.

Table of Contents

1. Memory Industry Still Maintains Conservative Capex Outlook for 2026 as AI Drives Demand Surge; There Is Potential for Upward Revisions

• Major DRAM and NAND Flash Suppliers' Respective Capex Figures

2. Overview of DRAM Capex: Focus Will Be on Migrations to 1C and 1-Gamma Processes and HBM-Related Capacity Expansions

• DRAM Industry's Annual Capex and Supply Bit Growth
• DRAM Suppliers' Fab Expansion Plans

3. Capex on NAND Flash - Overall Level Remains Conservative with Priority Set for Higher Layers and QLC

• NAND Flash Industry Capex and Supply Bit Growth

4. Equipment Providers Optimistic on AI-Driven Demand; Technical Threshold of Memory to Elevate Continuously in the Future

5. DRAM and NAND Flash Restricted in Bit Growth for 2026 as Investment Shifts to Mostly Advanced Technologies